Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.
With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.
We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured in
https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model
Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure
With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.
Resources:
- http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2020spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-MAA.nb
- https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model
Clone of Coronavirus: A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) with death
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.
We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.
I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20
I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.
The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W
Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.
We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.
I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20
I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.
The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W
Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
This model simulates the basic dynamics of a water reservoir, including the impact of rainfall, community water consumption, conservation efforts, and evaporation. The model shows how the reservoir’s water level changes over time based on natural inflows and human , nature water use.
Water Reservoir System (Basic)
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.
We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.
I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20
I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.
The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W
Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.
We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.
I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20
I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.
The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W
Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.
We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.
I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20
I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.
The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W
Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.
We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.
I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20
I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.
The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W
Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.
We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.
I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20
I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.
The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W
Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.
We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.
I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20
I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.
The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W
Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
Standard Yardstick and Lines
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.
We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.
I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20
I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.
The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W
Clone of Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.
We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.
I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20
I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.
The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W
Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.
We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.
I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20
I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.
The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W
Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.
We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.
I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20
I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.
The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W
Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.
We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.
I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20
I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.
The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W
Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.
We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.
I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20
I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.
The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W
Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.
We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.
I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20
I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.
The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W
Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.
We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.
I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20
I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.
The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W
Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.
We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.
I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20
I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.
The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W
Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.
We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.
I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20
I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.
The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W
Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.
We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.
I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20
I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.
The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W
Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
