An example of why it's so critical to understand where the boundaries are when considering a system. (developed from Eric Wolstenholme's Archetype examples by Gene Bellinger)
YouTube Video
Hospital Early Discharge Boundaries
Mindmap (tree) version of thermostat concept map
Thermostat Mind Map
Based on a book chapter by Rosemarie Sadsad based on her PhD Thesis. See also other Insights tagged Multiscale and Realist ( IM-3546 and IM-3834 are embedded here)
Multiscale modeling process
This model looks at changes in ED attendances/ GP referrals over time and then calculates the expected level of emergency admissions/ bed days that would result.
The model is split into different age groups as they have different seasonality patterns and growth rates
Urgent care bed model (UHP)
Based on Mangone 2018 Book on revisiting Sorokin's work (Dynamic sociology). See also Peter Turchin
Sorokin Social and Cultural Dynamics
Adding change over time to relative risk, odds ratio and population attributable fraction epidemiology concepts see
wikipedia and
examples .
Could also add deaths and competing risks
Relative Risk dynamics
FBE WIP based on ithink proof of concept model by Mark Heffernan See IM-1689 for black and white version
Extreme weather events effects on hospitals
Kidney replacement therapy dynamics simple model
Kidney Dialysis and Transplant Model
The transitions from home to supported accommodation for people with Intellectual Disability (ID) from birth to death in order to plan future services as they survive longer.
Intellectual Disability Accommodation
A restatement of the ISDC Nijmegen 2006 paper Exploring the Political and Economic Dimensions of Health Policy This may benefit from simplification and using cultural theory. See IM-57161 for extension
Political Economy of Health Services
This models the progressive decline of the ability for self-reliance and the growing dependence on outside help. Z508 p39-42 System Zoo 3 by Hartmut Bossel. Strong outside help causes a collapse of self-help capacity. Weak outside help produces a stable combination of wellbeing and self-help capacity.
Bossel: Z508 Clone of Dependence
Emergency care patient flows IM-6072 used as context to add confounders and potential unintended effects.
Clone of Confounding Interventions and Unintended Effects of the Four Hour Rule
Test Sensitivity and Specificity see ROC wikipedia and Tom Fawcett's 2006 article introduction to ROC Analysis, Can be linked to Brunswik Lens IM-1401
Test ROC Curves
Flows between acute hospital and aged care for older people. See IM-1012 for a simpler version
Aged Care and Hospital Flows
From Walrave
ISDC2014 paper Counteracting the success trap in publically owned corporations. Similar to the ordinary (efficiency focussed) and dynamic capabilities (explore)
insight described by David Teece
See also evolution and brain control insight
Explore or Exploit
DIabetes incidence inflow, Prevalence stock and deaths outflow
Diabetes Progression 1 stock
Based on Mark Heffernan's ithink Model of Pharmacy Workforce Supply and Demand
Pharmacist Workforce
Adapted from Fig 2, from Ana V Diez Roux (2011) Complex Systems Thinking May Help Us Transcend Current Impasses in Health Disparities Research Am J Public Health 2011;101 1627-1634 http://ajph.aphapublications.org/cgi/content/abstract/101/9/1627?etoc
Genes environment and physical activity interplay
From Brown and Heathcote's 2008 Paper on the simplest model of Choice ResponseTime , a Tutorial paper and a Workload capacity paper that estimates drift rate v for individuals with single and multiple targets. With start point variability.
Linear Ballistic Accumulator with start point variability
Extended from
Im-628 Supply and demand by adding control folder.
See also Managing Health Services Use IM-17566
Based on JHPPL 2015 article Note here the framing is an economic exchange rather than a public service (needs-services-resources) or capabilities
Neoliberalism and health policy
Business case for investment in national eHealth Infrastructure Programs
National eHealth Program Benefits
Rich Picture Version of Insight 386 The Dynamics of Human Service Delivery General Theory from the Book by Levin, Roberts, Hirsch et al. Ballinger 1976 ISBN 0-88410-132-0
Clone of Human Service Delivery Dynamics rich picture
Overview of choice modelling as part of value, effectiveness and motivation series of insights about wants, needs and demands related to health care (regional) model See also IM-4043
Service Choices
The current Causal loop diagram
Clone of Simplified CLD - Used in simulation
