Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

updated 16/3/2020 from 5 years ago

Forcings and feedbacks based on Tom Fiddaman, James Hansen and other feedback and cycle diagrams

Unfolding linked concepts story summary of C A Soper's 2018 Book : Human mismatch between the emotional brain and the thinking brain generated evolutionary mechanisms to avoid suicide; reframed as perceptual control theory.

From MIT ESD work (de Weck Ilities ) esp on Survivability (Medecki) http://bit.ly/HVsceb and Unarticulated Value (Ross) 2006 PhD pdf

Benefits and context described in Atkinson S et al (2000) Going down to the local: incorporating social organisation and political culture into assessments of decentralised health care Social Science & Medicine 51(4) 619-636 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0277-9536(00)00005-8 in Gilson L, ed. (2012). Health Policy and Systems Research: A Methodology Reader Alliance for Health Policy and Systems Research, World Health Organization p166-183

From IM-731 to navigate components of ability

From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

Model combining system dynamics and agent based modeling. Based on Prochaska's Transtheoretical Model of Behaviour Change. See also preceding SD Version IM-574

WIP unfolding for trainee modeller AD to provide context and direction for 2018 CCP work and beyond. See also Early Childhood intervention IM-94482

Australian Health Care Funding Flows, adapted from the National Hospitals and Health Reform Commission Report. Expanded in IM-78418

Aim: To gain insight into what map and model representations in applied systems methods in IM-1267 can assist identifying and explaining the improvement strategies (leverage points) described by Donella Meadows Places to Intervene Article. The context is social learning for collective action to improve real world events. Information Sources are adapted from IM-920

From Walrave ISDC2014 paper Counteracting the success trap in publically owned corporations. Similar to the ordinary (efficiency focussed) and dynamic capabilities (explore) insight described by David Teece

Opiod dependence and overuse

A model of thermostat action including conversions between heat and temperature and outside temperature. See also, after this model, how the concept map of a thermostat at IM-735 changed to the concept map at IM-736

Minimal model of glucose kinetics by Bergman, used to calculate insulin sensitivity from an Intravenous Glucose Tolerance Test (IVGTT). Plasma insulin I(t) enters a remote compartment X(t) where it is active in accelerating glucose G(t) disappearance into the periphery and liver, and inhibiting hepatic glucose production. Adapted from Minimal Models for Glucose and Insulin Kinetics: A Matlab implementation by Natal van Riel, Eindhoven University of Technology 2004 by Mark Heffernan.

An infinite number of mathematicians walk into a bar. The first one tells the bartender he wants a beer. The second one says he wants half a beer. The third one says he wants a fourth of a beer. The bartender puts two beers on the bar and says “You guys need to learn your limits.” From Wild About Math

Downstream and upstream responses, from Jack Homer , Gary HIrsch and Bobby Milstein. Chronic Illness in a Complex Health Economy  Syst. Dyn. Rev. 23, 313-343 (2007). Conference paper available at  http://bit.ly/JCO68V

A SEIR Model of SARS Pandemic With Isolation and Quarantine, based on Introduction to Computational Science by Shiflet

A WIP Limited SD model of the core of IM-731 based on Mark Heffernan's interpretation

eHealth Project Development Roadmap from Center for eHealth Research and Disease Management http://www.ehealthresearchcenter.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page

Changing Organization Structures and Behaviours based on Paul Holmstrom's work . Link to CLDs 

The effects of subsidies and incentives for private health insurance on the mix of public and private hospital use. The central role of adverse selection/moral hazard on private health insurance sustainability. See also updated version around 2017