Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Improvement Science as one of the clusters of interacting methods for improving health services network design and delivery using complex decision technologies IM-17952

From Peter Lacey's Whole Systems Partnership UK NHS ithink model with uncertainty added

Linked concept version of Tanner's Clinical Judgment Model

Full mind map version following modelling and simulation

Potential Diagnostic Error flows based on Schiff's Diagnostic Error Categories

From PLOS One Article April 2012 Worni, M et al System Dynamics to Model the Unintended Consequences of Denying Payment for Venous Thromboembolism after Total Knee Arthroplasty

Expanded version of IM-639 based on Health Expenditure Australia 2014-5 Table A3. See also IM-93836 for additional 2015-6 Table A3 added

From Am J Public Health April 2015 Article  Relates to Service Identification in the Health Service Network Improvement Matrix IM

From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

Unfolding WIP of Eric Wolstenholme's explanation of hospital congestion from March 2022 Youtube video and online stella presentation. Use of cascading interlinked archetypes. See Kumu version,  early discharge boundaries IM for an earlier version and Generic Archetypes IM from Gene and Simpler Version IM

Major stocks and flows of Erythropoiesis and Erythropoiesis Stimulating Agents (ESA) Dosing in Anemia due to Renal Failure from Jim Rogers. See Simulation Insight

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

updated 16/3/2020 from 5 years ago

Model of Buffer Margin from Robert Wears thesis WIP

A thermostat analogy used by Evans and Stoddardt in Producing Health Consuming HealthCare to explain why healthcare spending increases. This concept map is based on the Insight IM-736 Thermostat example

This diagram shows key components of home-based and residential assisted living services, provided by municipalities.

Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Clone of IM-806 modified to integrate AnyLogic Realworld, Model World with Van de Ven Engaged Scholarship and LAnd Use Modelling approaches. See also Complex Decision Technologies IM

Simplification of Prevention Investment Framework (private) IM See WIP integrating with economic view insight (private) and multiscale version IM private

Click +View Story on Bottom Left to unfold his wide view of Emergency care patient flows IM-6072 used as context to add confounders and potential indirect effects. See also IM-1010 for hospital fixes that fail, wiki for general Systems Archetypes and wiki for Leverage Points (There is also a health leverage points WIP wiki page)

From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them