BCTD Models

These models and simulations have been tagged “BCTD”.

Related tagsUdemyCIwIMSwIM

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New Learning tend to reduce Outdated Thinking, Communicating & Learning though our Outdated Thinking, Communicating & Learning inhibits new learning. The question is then how do we break this cycle. Adopted from "An Introduction to Systems Thinking with STELLA" by Barry Richmond.
Learning
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If we pay close attention to our actions and the typical outcomes of those actions it would be evident that there are frequently occurring patterns that develop. And there is a relation between the patterns.
Clone of Experience Unfolded
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To develop insights regarding a situation of interest there are a number of things should be considered to ensure a view of the relevant influences.

Clone of Systemic Strategy
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This common archetype of systems that include relapse or recidivism allows exploration of the unintended effects of increasing upstream capacity and swamping downstream capacity. The increase in the relapse rate eventually returns to swamp upstream capacity as well. A social welfare example, based on a TANF case study, from How Small System Dynamics Models Can Help the Policy Process. N. Ghaffarzadegan, J. Lyneis, GP Richardson. System Dynamics Review 27,1 (2011) 22-44 Conference version at http://bit.ly/HlxtZj

Clone of Swamping Insight
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All the following have a common characteristic.
Clone of Essence Property # 2
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The interaction of a population of Moose and Wolves.

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Clone of Moose and Wolves
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When endeavoring to develop an understanding of the nature of something it is generally useful to create a model of some type to aid in surfacing that understanding.
Clone of Clone of The Essence of AND?
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The interaction of a population of Moose and Wolves.

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The Essence of And?

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Clone of Moose and Wolves
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When endeavoring to develop an understanding of the nature of something it is generally useful to create a model of some type to aid in surfacing that understanding.

Video * Context

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Clone of The Essence of And?
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The model construction process is actually a balancing loop with endeavors to employ an abstract version of real events to form a model which produces conclusions and behavior which mimic the real events.
Clone of Model Construction Process
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This is a model depicting the interactions of the Aesop's Fable "The Boy Who Cried Wolf."
Clone of Clone of The Boy Who Cried Wolf
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This model is derived from the paper "Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that Never Happened: Creating and Sustaining Process Improvement" by Nelson P. Repenning and John D Sterman. See Insight 752 for a causal loop version of this model.

Clone of Credit Never Happened Simulation
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All the following have a common characteristic.
Clone of Essence Property # 2
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The model starts in 1900. In the year 2000 you get the chance to set a new emission target and nominal time to reach it. Your aim is to have atmospheric CO2 stabilize at about 400 ppmv in 2100.  From Sterman, John D. (2008)  Risk Communication on Climate:  Mental Models and Mass Balance.  Science 322 (24 October): 532-533.
Clone of Climate Stabilization Task
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All you wanted to do was put a bird feeder in your yard to attract birds and make for a more pleasant morning. And...

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And? It's All Connected

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Clone of Bird Feeder Dilemma
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The interaction of a population of Moose and Wolves.

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Cybersyn Demo
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What do activities of these images have in common?
Clone of Essence Property # 3
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The model construction process is actually a balancing loop which endeavors to employ an abstract version of real events to form a model which produces conclusions and behavior which mimic the real events.
Clone of Model Construction Process
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The structure responsible for rabbit population growth.
Clone of Clone of Rabbit Population
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Consider the following "Sustaining the Forest" model intended to provide another example of how unexpected the behavior of a web of extended interactions can be.

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Clone of Sustaining the Forest
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Consider the following "Sustaining the Forest" model intended to provide another example of how unexpected the behavior of a web of extended interactions can be.

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Clone of Sustaining the Forest
Insight diagram
Consider the following "Sustaining the Forest" model intended to provide another example of how unexpected the behavior of a web of extended interactions can be.

Video

The Essence of And?

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Clone of Sustaining the Forest
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There are limits to what one can infer from a qualitative model.
Clone of Maintaining Personnel Resources
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What do activities of these images have in common?
Clone of Essence Property # 3