This simulation shows how plant, deer and wolf populations impact each other in a deciduous forest ecosystem.
This simulation shows how plant, deer and wolf populations impact each other in a deciduous forest ecosystem.
Il modello dinamico di Baranyi e Roberts per la curva di crescita di microrganismi (Baranyi, J., Roberts, T. (1994). A dynamic approach to predicting bacterial growth in food International journal of food microbiology  23(), 1 - 18).    __  E' simile al D model (https://insightmaker.com/insight/2060
Il modello dinamico di Baranyi e Roberts per la curva di crescita di microrganismi (Baranyi, J., Roberts, T. (1994). A dynamic approach to predicting bacterial growth in food International journal of food microbiology  23(), 1 - 18).

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E' simile al D model (https://insightmaker.com/insight/206054/D-model-curve-di-Richards) ma qui la fase lag è esplicitamente inversamente proporzionale a mu. Questo semplifica alcuni calcoli quando mumax non è costante ma dipendente dalla temperatura. 
95 2 weeks ago
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION  The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed  Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a compon
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)

A stock-flow diagram of the water cycle, humans not included.
A stock-flow diagram of the water cycle, humans not included.
This is a simulation that represents the populations of lions in the world over the last 200 years.
This is a simulation that represents the populations of lions in the world over the last 200 years.
Un modello minimo per la crescita esponenziale di una popolazione microbica, con popolazione massima limitata
Un modello minimo per la crescita esponenziale di una popolazione microbica, con popolazione massima limitata
164 3 weeks ago
Un modello per l'effetto della temperatura (costante) sulla crescita di un pericoloso patogeno, agente di tossinfezioni alimentari (Listeria monocytogenes)    __  Il modello è basato su questo Insight https://insightmaker.com/insight/206861/D-model-curve-di-Richards-con-ln-alpha-lag-mu
Un modello per l'effetto della temperatura (costante) sulla crescita di un pericoloso patogeno, agente di tossinfezioni alimentari (Listeria monocytogenes)

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Il modello è basato su questo Insight https://insightmaker.com/insight/206861/D-model-curve-di-Richards-con-ln-alpha-lag-mu
88 2 weeks ago
    Dynamic simulation modelers are particularly interested in understanding and being able to distinguish between the behavior of stocks and flows that result from internal interactions and those that result from external forces acting on a system.  For some time modelers have been particularly int

Dynamic simulation modelers are particularly interested in understanding and being able to distinguish between the behavior of stocks and flows that result from internal interactions and those that result from external forces acting on a system.  For some time modelers have been particularly interested in internal interactions that result in stable oscillations in the absence of any external forces acting on a system.  The model in this last scenario was independently developed by Alfred Lotka (1924) and Vito Volterra (1926).  Lotka was interested in understanding internal dynamics that might explain oscillations in moth and butterfly populations and the parasitoids that attack them.  Volterra was interested in explaining an increase in coastal populations of predatory fish and a decrease in their prey that was observed during World War I when human fishing pressures on the predator species declined.  Both discovered that a relatively simple model is capable of producing the cyclical behaviors they observed.  Since that time, several researchers have been able to reproduce the modeling dynamics in simple experimental systems consisting of only predators and prey.  It is now generally recognized that the model world that Lotka and Volterra produced is too simple to explain the complexity of most and predator-prey dynamics in nature.  And yet, the model significantly advanced our understanding of the critical role of feedback in predator-prey interactions and in feeding relationships that result in community dynamics.The Lotka–Volterra model makes a number of assumptions about the environment and evolution of the predator and prey populations:

1. The prey population finds ample food at all times.
2. The food supply of the predator population depends entirely on the size of the prey population.
3. The rate of change of population is proportional to its size.
4. During the process, the environment does not change in favour of one species and genetic adaptation is inconsequential.
5. Predators have limitless appetite.
As differential equations are used, the solution is deterministic and continuous. This, in turn, implies that the generations of both the predator and prey are continually overlapping.[23]

Prey
When multiplied out, the prey equation becomes
dx/dtαx - βxy
 The prey are assumed to have an unlimited food supply, and to reproduce exponentially unless subject to predation; this exponential growth is represented in the equation above by the term αx. The rate of predation upon the prey is assumed to be proportional to the rate at which the predators and the prey meet; this is represented above by βxy. If either x or y is zero then there can be no predation.

With these two terms the equation above can be interpreted as: the change in the prey's numbers is given by its own growth minus the rate at which it is preyed upon.

Predators

The predator equation becomes

dy/dt =  - 

In this equation, {\displaystyle \displaystyle \delta xy} represents the growth of the predator population. (Note the similarity to the predation rate; however, a different constant is used as the rate at which the predator population grows is not necessarily equal to the rate at which it consumes the prey). {\displaystyle \displaystyle \gamma y} represents the loss rate of the predators due to either natural death or emigration; it leads to an exponential decay in the absence of prey.

Hence the equation expresses the change in the predator population as growth fueled by the food supply, minus natural death.


 ​Physical meaning of the equations  The Lotka–Volterra model makes a number of assumptions about the environment and evolution of the predator and prey populations:        1. The prey population finds ample food at all times.    2. The food supply of the predator population depends entirely on the
​Physical meaning of the equations
The Lotka–Volterra model makes a number of assumptions about the environment and evolution of the predator and prey populations:

1. The prey population finds ample food at all times.
2. The food supply of the predator population depends entirely on the size of the prey population.
3. The rate of change of population is proportional to its size.
4. During the process, the environment does not change in favour of one species and genetic adaptation is inconsequential.
5. Predators have limitless appetite.
As differential equations are used, the solution is deterministic and continuous. This, in turn, implies that the generations of both the predator and prey are continually overlapping.[23]

Prey
When multiplied out, the prey equation becomes
dx/dtαx - βxy
 The prey are assumed to have an unlimited food supply, and to reproduce exponentially unless subject to predation; this exponential growth is represented in the equation above by the term αx. The rate of predation upon the prey is assumed to be proportional to the rate at which the predators and the prey meet; this is represented above by βxy. If either x or y is zero then there can be no predation.

With these two terms the equation above can be interpreted as: the change in the prey's numbers is given by its own growth minus the rate at which it is preyed upon.

Predators

The predator equation becomes

dy/dt =  - 

In this equation, {\displaystyle \displaystyle \delta xy} represents the growth of the predator population. (Note the similarity to the predation rate; however, a different constant is used as the rate at which the predator population grows is not necessarily equal to the rate at which it consumes the prey). {\displaystyle \displaystyle \gamma y} represents the loss rate of the predators due to either natural death or emigration; it leads to an exponential decay in the absence of prey.

Hence the equation expresses the change in the predator population as growth fueled by the food supply, minus natural death.


A model of the exponential growth phase of  E. coli  growth.
A model of the exponential growth phase of E. coli growth.
Simulation of MTBF with controls   F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt   Where    • F(t) is the probability of failure    • λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example)   • t is the observed service life (h, for example)  The inverse curve is the trust time On the right the increase in failures brings its
Simulation of MTBF with controls

F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt 
Where  
• F(t) is the probability of failure  
• λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example) 
• t is the observed service life (h, for example)

The inverse curve is the trust time
On the right the increase in failures brings its inverse which is loss of trust and move into suspicion and lack of confidence.
This can be seen in strategic social applications with those who put economy before providing the priorities of the basic living infrastructures for all.

This applies to policies and strategic decisions as well as physical equipment.
A) Equipment wears out through friction and preventive maintenance can increase the useful lifetime, 
B) Policies/working practices/guidelines have to be updated to reflect changes in the external environment and eventually be replaced when for instance a population rises too large (constitutional changes are required to keep pace with evolution, e.g. the concepts of the ancient Greeks, 3000 years ago, who based their thoughts on a small population cannot be applied in 2013 except where populations can be contained into productive working communities with balanced profit and loss centers to ensure sustainability)

Early Life
If we follow the slope from the leftmost start to where it begins to flatten out this can be considered the first period. The first period is characterized by a decreasing failure rate. It is what occurs during the “early life” of a population of units. The weaker units fail leaving a population that is more rigorous.

Useful Life
The next period is the flat bottom portion of the graph. It is called the “useful life” period. Failures occur more in a random sequence during this time. It is difficult to predict which failure mode will occur, but the rate of failures is predictable. Notice the constant slope.  

Wearout
The third period begins at the point where the slope begins to increase and extends to the rightmost end of the graph. This is what happens when units become old and begin to fail at an increasing rate. It is called the “wearout” period. 
Level of biological organization linking cell level division and population level evolution
Level of biological organization linking cell level division and population level evolution
Il modello dinamico di Baranyi e Roberts per la curva di crescita di microrganismi (Baranyi, J., Roberts, T. (1994). A dynamic approach to predicting bacterial growth in food International journal of food microbiology  23(), 1 - 18).    __  E' un modello dinamico che assume che la fase lag sia dovut
Il modello dinamico di Baranyi e Roberts per la curva di crescita di microrganismi (Baranyi, J., Roberts, T. (1994). A dynamic approach to predicting bacterial growth in food International journal of food microbiology  23(), 1 - 18).

__
E' un modello dinamico che assume che la fase lag sia dovuto all'accumulo di un composto essenziale (la cui quantità iniziale riflette lo stato iniziale delle cellule nell'ambiente E1, da cui provengono), secondo una cinetica di primo ordine, ad una velocità che dipende dall'ambiente E2. Il modello è lievemente modificato rispetto all'originale, per evitare che la quantità del prodotto essenziale tenda all'infinito. 
137 8 months ago
This simulation shows how plant, deer and wolf populations impact each other in a deciduous forest ecosystem.
This simulation shows how plant, deer and wolf populations impact each other in a deciduous forest ecosystem.
Un modello minimo per la crescita esponenziale di una popolazione microbica
Un modello minimo per la crescita esponenziale di una popolazione microbica
58 8 months ago
stock flow diagram illustrating the lac operon
stock flow diagram illustrating the lac operon
Evolutionary Accretion Model of Human Memory mostly from Murray 2016/7  Book  and 2019 Ferbinteanu Memory Theory  article  See also Brain systems modelling 2021  article
Evolutionary Accretion Model of Human Memory mostly from Murray 2016/7 Book and 2019 Ferbinteanu Memory Theory article See also Brain systems modelling 2021 article
Questo modello usa un'altra ipotesi per la natura (e durata della fase lag). La popolazione N è composta da una frazione di cellule che non crescono NG e una di cellule che crescono immediatamente alla massima velocità, G. Il rapporto fra le due frazioni determina la durata della fase lag
Questo modello usa un'altra ipotesi per la natura (e durata della fase lag). La popolazione N è composta da una frazione di cellule che non crescono NG e una di cellule che crescono immediatamente alla massima velocità, G. Il rapporto fra le due frazioni determina la durata della fase lag
  ​Predator-prey
models are the building masses of the bio-and environments as bio
masses are become out of their asset masses. Species contend, advance and
scatter essentially to look for assets to support their battle for their very
presence. Contingent upon their particular settings of uses, they

​Predator-prey models are the building masses of the bio-and environments as bio masses are become out of their asset masses. Species contend, advance and scatter essentially to look for assets to support their battle for their very presence. Contingent upon their particular settings of uses, they can take the types of asset resource-consumer, plant-herbivore, parasite-have, tumor cells- immune structure, vulnerable irresistible collaborations, and so on. They manage the general misfortune win connections and thus may have applications outside of biological systems. At the point when focused connections are painstakingly inspected, they are regularly in actuality a few types of predator-prey communication in simulation. 

 Looking at Lotka-Volterra Model:

The well known Italian mathematician Vito Volterra proposed a differential condition model to clarify the watched increment in predator fish in the Adriatic Sea during World War I. Simultaneously in the United States, the conditions contemplated by Volterra were determined freely by Alfred Lotka (1925) to portray a theoretical synthetic response wherein the concoction fixations waver. The Lotka-Volterra model is the least complex model of predator-prey communications. It depends on direct per capita development rates, which are composed as f=b−py and g=rx−d. 

A detailed explanation of the parameters:

  • The parameter b is the development rate of species x (the prey) without communication with species y (the predators). Prey numbers are reduced by these collaborations: The per capita development rate diminishes (here directly) with expanding y, conceivably getting to be negative. 
  • The parameter p estimates the effect of predation on x˙/x. 
  • The parameter d is the death rate of species y without connection with species x. 
  • The term rx means the net rate of development of the predator population in light of the size of the prey population.

Reference:

http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Predator-prey_model

 

Launchpad about reorganisation based on Bogdanov's Tektology general theory of organization, perceptual control theory, personal history and current concerns, linked to the modern (or historical) organization of biology and political economy. 
Launchpad about reorganisation based on Bogdanov's Tektology general theory of organization, perceptual control theory, personal history and current concerns, linked to the modern (or historical) organization of biology and political economy. 
2 months ago