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A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

SIR model with waning immunity
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This is reproduction of the tutorial exercise 1, Disease Dynamics.
Tut1-diseaseDynamics
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Tutorial model of disease dynamics using ABM
Clone of Clone of Agent-Based Disease Dynamics
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SARS-CoV-19 spread in different countries
- please adjust variables accordingly

Italy
  • elderly population (>65): 0.228
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 4-11
  • starting population size: 60 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.32 (gbe-bund)
  • heart disease: 0.04 (statista)
  • free intensive care units: 3 100

Germany
  • elderly population (>65): 0.195 (bpb)
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 2-3 (deutschlandfunk)
  • starting population size: 83 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.26 (gbe-bund)
  • heart disease: 0.2-0.28 (herzstiftung)
  • free intensive care units: 5 880

France
  • elderly population (>65): 0.183 (statista)
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 3-5
  • starting population size: 67 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.3 (fondation-recherche-cardio-vasculaire)
  • heart disease: 0.1-0.2 (oecd)
  • free intensive care units: 3 000

As you wish
  • numbers of encounters/day: 1 = quarantine, 2-3 = practicing social distancing, 4-6 = heavy social life, 7-9 = not caring at all // default 2
  • practicing preventive measures (ie. washing hands regularly, not touching your face etc.): 0.1 (nobody does anything) - 1 (very strictly) // default 0.8
  • government elucidation: 0.1 (very bad) - 1 (highly transparent and educating) // default 0.9
  • Immunity rate (due to lacking data): 0 (you can't get immune) - 1 (once you had it you'll never get it again) // default 0.4

Key
  • Healthy: People are not infected with SARS-CoV-19 but could still get it
  • Infected: People have been infected and developed the disease COVID-19
  • Recovered: People just have recovered from COVID-19 and can't get it again in this stage
  • Dead: People died because of COVID-19
  • Immune: People got immune and can't get the disease again
  • Critical recovery percentage: Chance of survival with no special medical treatment
Clone of SARS-CoV-19 model
Insight diagram
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
Clone of SIR Model
Insight diagram
SARS-CoV-19 spread in different countries
- please adjust variables accordingly

Italy
  • elderly population (>65): 0.228
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 4-11
  • starting population size: 60 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.32 (gbe-bund)
  • heart disease: 0.04 (statista)
  • free intensive care units: 3 100

Germany
  • elderly population (>65): 0.195 (bpb)
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 2-3 (deutschlandfunk)
  • starting population size: 83 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.26 (gbe-bund)
  • heart disease: 0.2-0.28 (herzstiftung)
  • free intensive care units: 5 880

France
  • elderly population (>65): 0.183 (statista)
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 3-5
  • starting population size: 67 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.3 (fondation-recherche-cardio-vasculaire)
  • heart disease: 0.1-0.2 (oecd)
  • free intensive care units: 3 000

As you wish
  • numbers of encounters/day: 1 = quarantine, 2-3 = practicing social distancing, 4-6 = heavy social life, 7-9 = not caring at all // default 2
  • practicing preventive measures (ie. washing hands regularly, not touching your face etc.): 0.1 (nobody does anything) - 1 (very strictly) // default 0.8
  • government elucidation: 0.1 (very bad) - 1 (highly transparent and educating) // default 0.9
  • Immunity rate (due to lacking data): 0 (you can't get immune) - 1 (once you had it you'll never get it again) // default 0.4

Key
  • Healthy: People are not infected with SARS-CoV-19 but could still get it
  • Infected: People have been infected and developed the disease COVID-19
  • Recovered: People just have recovered from COVID-19 and can't get it again in this stage
  • Dead: People died because of COVID-19
  • Immune: People got immune and can't get the disease again
  • Critical recovery percentage: Chance of survival with no special medical treatment
Clone of SARS-CoV-19 model
Insight diagram

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

Clone of SIR model with waning immunity
Insight diagram

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

Clone of SIR model with waning immunity
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system dynamics
tutorialDiseaseDynamics
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A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
Clone of SIR Model
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This systems model will help students understand the different systems that make up our body and how choices we make can impact how those systems work.
Factors are based on daily choices.
Clone of Human Body Systems Efficiency
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A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
Clone of SIR Model
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A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

Clone of Clone of SIR model with waning immunity
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A normal zombie outbreak simulator!
Future change will be added.
:]
A zombie virus model
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A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
Clone of SIR Model
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A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with herd immunity and isolation policies.

Clone of SIR model with herd immunity and isolation
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A spatially aware, agent based model of disease spread. There are three classes of people: susceptible (healthy), infected (sick and infectious), and recovered (healthy and temporarily immune).

Clone of CS558 Agent-Based Spatially Aware Disease Model
Insight diagram
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
Clone of SIR Model
Insight diagram
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
Clone of SIR Model
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A spatially aware, agent based model of disease spread. There are three classes of people: susceptible (healthy), infected (sick and infectious), and recovered (healthy and temporarily immune).

Clone of Spatially Aware SIR Diseasse Model
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El Salvador
  • Tamaño población inicial: 6,400,000
  • Unidad de cuidados intensivos disponibles: 2000
  • Casos confirmados hasta 13/10/2020: 30,480
  • Casos fallecidos hasta 13/10/2020: 899
Fuente: https://covid19.gob.sv/


CORONAVIRUS EL SALVADOR
Insight diagram
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
Clone of Clone of SIR Model
Insight diagram
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
Clone of SIR Model
Insight diagram

A spatially aware, agent based model of disease spread. There are three classes of people: susceptible (healthy), infected (sick and infectious), and recovered (healthy and temporarily immune).

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Clone of Spatially Aware SIR Disease Model