Health Care | Insight Maker

A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models.

Clone of Systems Methods

Dr. Gurbachan (Guru) Chadha

Suicide Prevention WIP

Clone of Suicide Dynamics

Waleed Haddad

感染係数: ウイルスの感染しやすさ

致死係数: 重症患者の死にやすさ

初期潜伏感染者: 初めの潜伏感染者数

政策閾値: 緊急事態宣言を出す判断を行う陽性判定数

政策日数: 政策の長さ

政策病床数: 政策によって追加されるホテル病床数

政策外出率: 政策期間の外出率

バグ:

病床使用率が1を超える

陽性判定数が発症者の係数倍

政策による効果の粒度が粗い

メディア効果、病床数効果あり感染モデル

ShotaroOkamoto

Simplified Rich picture version of Tanner's Clinical Judgment Model, with the addition of clinical reasoning cycle concepts from T Levett-Jones et al Nurse Education Today 30 (2010) 515-520

Thinking like a nurse rich pic after simulation

Geoff McDonnell

A simple generic rich picture WIP view of interactions among social structures and agents and Boonstra's 2016 conceptualizing power article from Ecology and Society

Power and Health Interests

Geoff McDonnell

Physician agents interacting with delegate agents for emergency department assessment diagnosis and treatment. From BMC paper May 2013, combining figs 1 and 2

ED Physician Delegation Hybrid Model

Geoff McDonnell

FBE WIP based on ithink proof of concept model by Mark Heffernan See IM-1689 for black and white version

Extreme weather events effects on hospitals

Geoff McDonnell

Simplified version of IM-852 Erythropoiesis Stimulating Agents (ESA) Dosing in Anemia due to Renal Failure from Jim Rogers See Stock Flow Map Insight 810

Clone of ESA Dosing in Renal Anemia Simple Simulation

David Cairns

Inspiration for the model: The Last of Us, a video game for PlayStation 4.

In this example, we used a system dynamics model to predict a spread of a dangerous infection called Cordyceps Brain Infection, which is immune to any type of antibiotics. In the beginning, the virus was carried by only one person (Infected), which inhaled spores from a plant called cordyceps fungus.

The Infected show their first symptoms after two days, as the infection attacks higher brain functions, making the infected highly aggressive and incapable of reason or rational thoughts.

The infection can be transmitted via bodily fluids; such as saliva, or by inhaling spores from the afore mentioned plant.

It is believed that the infection can last up to 10 years, before the host dies.

Parameters such as Infectivity, Contact Rate and Immunization Rate can be adjusted, but as we are dealing with a highly infectious disease, the starting values are 0.97 (infectivity - in 97% of the cases, the infection will spread to another host); 5 (each infected attacks 5 susceptible person per day); and 0.0001 (only 1 infected per 10,000 infected gets the treatment, as the vaccine can be afforded only by the richest people on the Earth).

Simulation time is set to 50 years. The purpose of this model is to simulate what kind of an effect a deadly infection would have on World's population, if the medicine could not find a cure, or if the cure would be available only for the richest people on the Earth.

The simulation result shows that the Earth's population has been decimated with the disease, and that there are only 7,5 million people left on Earth.

Infectious Disease Model

Emir Guso

Model for Rehab 2139 Board Game by Mark Heffernan and Lynette Lee

Rehab Ward Flows

Geoff McDonnell

WIP Summary of Levin Roberts and Hirsch 1975 book subtitled A Computer-Aided Search for Heroin Policy using System Dynamics

The Persistent Poppy

Geoff McDonnell

3 weeks ago

Adapted from Fig 10.1 p.393 of the Book: James A. Forte ( 2007), Human Behavior and The Social Environment: Models, Metaphors and Maps for Applying Theoretical Perspectives to Practice Thomson Brooks/Cole Belmont ISBN 0-495-00659-9

Interactionist Theory Map

Geoff McDonnell

A SEIR Model of SARS Pandemic With Isolation and Quarantine, based on Introduction to Computational Science by Shiflet

Model Spread of SARS

Lathif Ma'arif

4

Kidney replacement therapy dynamics: stock and flow and CLD (Forrester) diagram of the kidney dialysis and transplant CLD im-317 with added CKD and Risk Factors

Kidney Disease Dialysis and Transplant Stock Flow and CLD

Geoff McDonnell

From Rudolph JW Morrison JB and Carroll JS (2009) The Dynamics of Action-Oriented Problem Solving: Linking Interpretation and Choice. Academy of Management Review 34 (4) p733-756 Available online . This paper won the Forrester Award for 2012 and the presentation talk video is available. The presentation paper abstract is available in System Dynamics Review 2013 here

Clone of Action-Oriented Problem Solving Dynamics

giampaolo

WIP example of Services oriented multiscale computable narrative synthesis focussed on Coping carefully with diabetes

Clone of Diabetes Care

Kwangsoo

Based on Chris Argyris 2010 Book Organizational Traps Oxford University Press, built around Insight 619 on single and double loop learning

Clone of Organizational Traps Argyris

Steve Albert

From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

Clone of Clone of Implementing Chronic Care Management

li xu

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

updated 16/3/2020 from 5 years ago

Clone of Scratchpad of Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

Philippe Garvie

Incorporating organizational factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment(PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: A hybrid technique formalization Zahra Mohaghegh, Reza Kazemi, Ali Mosleh Reliability Engineering and System Safety (2009) 94 5 p1000–1018 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183200800269X. More detailed part of Insight 1074

Clone of Performance shaping factors

PRASHANT K TIWARI

DIabetes incidence inflow, Prevalence stock and deaths outflow

Clone of Diabetes Progression 1 stock

Mounir ATTIEH

Adapted from Fig 4.1 p.140 of the Book: James A. Forte ( 2007), Human Behavior and The Social Environment: Models, Metaphors and Maps for Applying Theoretical Perspectives to Practice Thomson Brooks/Cole Belmont ISBN 0-495-00659-9

Ecological Theory Map

Geoff McDonnell

Exploring the conditions of permanent coexistence, rather than gradual disappearance of disadvantaged competitors. Z506 p32-35 System Zoo 3 by Hartmut Bossel.

Clone of Competition for Resources

christian hitti

This is a first attempt at identifying the actors that may need to be involved in the development of the model - at one stage or other.

Clone of Health care system stakeholder map

Vinayak Gadad

Health Care Models