An infinite number of mathematicians walk into a bar. The first one tells the bartender he wants a beer. The second one says he wants half a beer. The third one says he wants a fourth of a beer. The bartender puts two beers on the bar and says “You guys need to learn your limits.” From Wild About Math
Infinite drinkers
Based on Chris Argyris 2010 Book Organizational Traps Oxford University Press, built around Insight 619 on single and double loop learning
Clone of Organizational Traps Argyris
Clone of Medical Sustainability_p3
This model shows the dynamics of use of a new medical technology based on its scope of use and perceived relative benefit. The technology needs cumulative usage to fix its glitches, and the benefits will be diluted as the scope of use widens.
Clone of Diffusion of Medical Technology
From Werner Ulrich's JORS Articles Operational research and critical systems thinking – an integrated perspective. Part 1: OR as applied systems thinking. Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication (14 December 2011). and Part 2 :OR as argumentative practice.
Clone of Critical Systems Thinking
Model for Rehab 2139 Board Game by Mark Heffernan and Lynette Lee
Rehab Ward Flows
A model of an infectious disease and control
Clone of Disease Dynamics (Agent Based Modeling)
Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman
This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.
Clone of Clone of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman
From Adapting ‘Agility’ to Healthcare Service Delivery, by Tom Rust, Khalid Saeed, Isa Bar-On, Oleg Pavlov Paper from July 2013 System dynamics Conference Cambridge MA and also 2012 Conference paper Could be extended by adding dynamics described in going solid insight
Clone of Care Service Capacity Adjustment
WIP Ideas. Replaced by IM-14124 and IM-14414 Ideas here focus on Additional adjusted stock of Bed Capacity version of IM-7981 .The dynamics of emergency and elective admissions competing for vacant ward beds in a hospital.
Hospital Emergency and Elective Admission Interaction Simulation 2 old
Clone of IM-806 modified to integrate AnyLogic Real world, Model World with Van de Ven Engaged Scholarship and Land Use Modelling approaches. See also Complex Decision Technologies IM
Real World and Model World
DIabetes incidence inflow, Prevalence stock and deaths outflow
Clone of Diabetes Progression 1 stock
From Werner Ulrich's JORS Articles Operational research and critical systems thinking – an integrated perspective. Part 1: OR as applied systems thinking. Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication (14 December 2011). and Part 2 :OR as argumentative practice.
Clone of Critical Systems Thinking
Overview of Evaluation Approaches from Pawson and Tilley's Book comparing Realist, Constructivist, Experimental and Pragmatic Evaluation Approaches. Combined with Van de Ven's Alternative Philosophies of Science in his Engaged Scholarship book. See also Burrell and Morgan's research paradigms video
Realistic and Other Evaluation Methods
感染係数: ウイルスの感染しやすさ
致死係数: 重症患者の死にやすさ
初期潜伏感染者: 初めの潜伏感染者数
政策閾値: 緊急事態宣言を出す判断を行う陽性判定数
政策日数: 政策の長さ
政策病床数: 政策によって追加されるホテル病床数
政策外出率: 政策期間の外出率
バグ:
病床使用率が1を超える
陽性判定数が発症者の係数倍
政策による効果の粒度が粗い
メディア効果、病床数効果あり感染モデル
A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity
Clone of SIR Model with waning immunity
Business case for investment in national eHealth Infrastructure Programs
National eHealth Program Benefits
Dynamic system underlying project life cycles From Roberts Edward B The Dynamics of Research and Development p5 Harper & Row NY 1964
Clone of The dynamics of R&D
Simplified version of IM-852 Erythropoiesis Stimulating Agents (ESA) Dosing in Anemia due to Renal Failure from Jim Rogers See Stock Flow Map Insight 810
Clone of ESA Dosing in Renal Anemia Simple Simulation
From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for
Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research
Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
Clone of Implementing Chronic Care Management
Patients on Treatment represented as people in a swimming pool. Fast Switchers change costumes. Lapsed Users sit by the pool. Misdiagnosed people are in the wrong pool. Extended from IM-305
Patient Care Process Swimming Pool Metaphor
Extension of the first 1000 days insight to include the Lancet Feb 2023 breastfeeding framework including commercial milk formula marketing
Breastfeeding Framework
Rich Picture CLD from Yaman Barlas and Hakan Yasarcan (2008) A Comprehensive Model of Goal Dynamics in Organizations:Setting, Evaluation and Revision in Complex Decision Making Theory and Practice H. Qudrat-Ullah J.M. Spector P.I. Davidsen (Eds.) Springer 2008 available online paper
Goal Dynamics CLD
Based on Psychological Medicine Dec 2015 article Depression as a systemic syndrome: mapping the feedback loops of major depressive disorder by A. K. Wittenborn, H. Rahmandad, J. Rick and N. Hosseinichimeh, mentioned here
Clone of Depression Dynamics