Insight diagram
From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
Clone of Implementing Chronic Care Management
Insight diagram
感染係数: ウイルスの感染しやすさ
致死係数: 重症患者の死にやすさ
初期潜伏感染者: 初めの潜伏感染者数
政策閾値: 緊急事態宣言を出す判断を行う陽性判定数
政策日数: 政策の長さ
政策病床数: 政策によって追加されるホテル病床数
政策外出率: 政策期間の外出率

バグ:
病床使用率が1を超える
陽性判定数が発症者の係数倍
政策による効果の粒度が粗い
メディア効果、病床数効果あり感染モデル
Insight diagram
Summary of Lancet March 2023 Series See also Structure Agency Insight
Commercial Determinants of Health
Insight diagram

Simplified Rich picture version of Tanner's Clinical Judgment Model, with the addition of clinical reasoning cycle concepts from T Levett-Jones et al Nurse Education Today 30 (2010) 515-520

Thinking like a nurse rich pic after simulation
Insight diagram

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

updated 16/3/2020 from 5 years ago

Clone of Scratchpad of Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman
Insight diagram
A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models.
Clone of Systems Methods
Insight diagram
Inspiration for the model: The Last of Us, a video game for PlayStation 4. 

In this example, we used a system dynamics model to predict ​a spread of a dangerous infection called Cordyceps Brain Infection, which is immune to any type of antibiotics. In the beginning, the virus was carried by only one person (Infected), which inhaled spores from a plant called cordyceps fungus. 

The Infected show their first symptoms after two days, as the infection attacks higher brain functions, making the infected highly aggressive and incapable of reason or rational thoughts. 

The infection can be transmitted via bodily fluids; such as saliva, or by inhaling spores from the afore mentioned plant. 

It is believed that the infection can last up to 10 years, before the host dies. 

Parameters such as Infectivity, Contact Rate and Immunization Rate can be adjusted, but as we are dealing with a highly infectious disease, the starting values are 0.97 (infectivity - in 97% of the cases, the infection will spread to another host); 5 (each infected attacks 5 susceptible person per day); and 0.0001 (only 1 infected per 10,000 infected gets the treatment, as the vaccine can be afforded only by the richest people on the Earth). 

Simulation time is set to 50 years. The purpose of this model is to simulate what kind of an effect a deadly infection would have on World's population, if the medicine could not find a cure, or if the cure would be available only for the richest people on the Earth. 

The simulation result shows that the Earth's population has been decimated with the disease, and that there are only 7,5 million people left on Earth. 
Infectious Disease Model
Insight diagram
Summary of Buchanan 2008 AJPH article
Autonomy Paternalism and Justice: Ethics in Public Health
Insight diagram
Based on Chris Argyris 2010 Book Organizational Traps Oxford University Press, built around Insight 619 on single and double loop learning
Clone of Organizational Traps Argyris
Insight diagram

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

Clone of Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman
Insight diagram

Australian Health Care Funding Flows, adapted from the National Hospitals and Health Reform Commission Report. Expanded in IM-78418

Health Care Funding Flows
Insight diagram

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

Clone of Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman
Insight diagram
Suicide Prevention  WIP
Clone of Suicide Dynamics
Insight diagram

Causal loop diagram based on Jack  Homer's  Worker burnout: a dynamic model with implications  for prevention and control See IM-333 for simulation model and IM-641 for Rich Picture CLD

System Dynamics Review 1985 1(1)42-62

 

Burnout Dynamics CLD
Insight diagram

Adapted from Fig 10.1 p.393 of the Book: James A. Forte ( 2007), Human Behavior and The Social Environment: Models, Metaphors and Maps for Applying Theoretical Perspectives to Practice  Thomson Brooks/Cole Belmont ISBN 0-495-00659-9

Interactionist Theory Map
Insight diagram

Model for Rehab 2139 Board Game by Mark Heffernan and Lynette Lee

Rehab Ward Flows
Insight diagram

From Rudolph JW Morrison JB and Carroll JS (2009) The Dynamics of Action-Oriented Problem Solving: Linking Interpretation and Choice. Academy of Management Review 34 (4) p733-756 Available online . This paper won the Forrester Award for 2012 and the presentation talk video is available. The presentation  paper abstract is available in System Dynamics Review 2013 here

Clone of Action-Oriented Problem Solving Dynamics
Insight diagram
WIP example of Services oriented multiscale computable narrative synthesis focussed on Coping carefully with diabetes
Clone of Diabetes Care
Insight diagram
WIP Summary of Levin Roberts and Hirsch 1975 book subtitled A Computer-Aided Search for Heroin Policy using System Dynamics
The Persistent Poppy
Insight diagram

Simplified version of IM-852  Erythropoiesis Stimulating Agents (ESA) Dosing in Anemia due to Renal Failure from Jim Rogers See Stock Flow Map  Insight 810 

Clone of ESA Dosing in Renal Anemia Simple Simulation
Insight diagram

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with herd immunity

SIR model with herd immunity
Insight diagram
A restatement of the ISDC Nijmegen 2006 paper Exploring the Political and Economic Dimensions of Health Policy This may benefit from simplification and using cultural theory. See IM-57161 for extension
Political Economy of Health Services
Insight diagram

Incorporating organizational factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment(PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: A hybrid technique formalization Zahra Mohaghegh, Reza Kazemi, Ali Mosleh Reliability Engineering and System Safety (2009) 94 5 p1000–1018 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183200800269X. More detailed part of Insight 1074

Clone of Performance shaping factors
Insight diagram

Adapted from Fig 4.1 p.140 of the Book: James A. Forte ( 2007), Human Behavior and The Social Environment: Models, Metaphors and Maps for Applying Theoretical Perspectives to Practice  Thomson Brooks/Cole Belmont ISBN 0-495-00659-9

Ecological Theory Map