Health Care | Insight Maker

Based on Psychological Medicine Dec 2015 article Depression as a systemic syndrome: mapping the feedback loops of major depressive disorder by A. K. Wittenborn, H. Rahmandad, J. Rick and N. Hosseinichimeh, mentioned here

Clone of Depression Dynamics

Brian J. Gross

A SEIR Model of SARS Pandemic With Isolation and Quarantine, based on Introduction to Computational Science by Shiflet and Shiflet

Quarantine is when someone exposed to infected people, whether infected or not, and advised to stay at home.

Isolation is when someone exposed to infected people, get infected, detected, and send to hospital.

Assumption:

- No births

- Dead only caused by SARS

- Contact between susceptible and infected are constant. Contact does not affected by population density

- Quarantine factor for susceptible and exposed is same.

- Quarantine and isolation is fully efective. Someone who quarantined or isolated cannot transmit or exposed to SARS

- Someone who has already recovered from SARS gained fully effective immunity, thus cannot re-infected

SEIR Model of SARS

Aldo Arya Saka Mukti

19

A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models. See also Complex Decision Technologies IM

Interventions and leverage points added in IM-1400 (complex!)

Clone of Systems Methods

Carl Gomersall

Extension of IM-14124 with an adjusted bed capacity stock. For backlog and services see IM-8382

Clone of Hospital Emergency and Elective Admission Interaction Simulation 3

C Scheib

From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

Clone of Implementing Chronic Care Management

ouonik

WIP summaries of bill mitchell's blog postings related to the connections between macroeconomics and wellbeing, particularly via unemployment and inflation

Unemployment and wellbeing

Geoff McDonnell

Adapted from Fig 13.1 p.523 of the Book: James A. Forte ( 2007), Human Behavior and The Social Environment: Models, Metaphors and Maps for Applying Theoretical Perspectives to Practice Thomson Brooks/Cole Belmont ISBN 0-495-00659-9

Critical Theory Map

Geoff McDonnell

4 weeks ago

Based on ED RCA Report Taxonomy and Checklist Form

ED Incident Concepts

Geoff McDonnell

A simple glucose regulation causal loop diagram taken from Richard O. Foster, 1970: The Dynamics of blood sugar regulation, MSc thesis, MIT Dept of Electrical Engineering, available on the MIT System Dynamics Group Literature Collection and in the MIT Electronic Libraries. See IM-587 for Addition of Glucagon

Clone of Glucose regulation CLD 1

Yun Wang

WIP Based on Sheldrick Implementation science 2016 article A system dynamics model of clinical decision thresholds for the detection of developmental-behavioral disorders. Vensim model modified to show patterns

Clinical Decision Threshold Dynamics

Geoff McDonnell

Work in progress based on PA Sorokin's Reconstruction of Humanity, moving from egoistic to altruistic personalities, social institutions and an idealistic cultural supersystem

Sorokin Personality

Geoff McDonnell

Adapted from Fig 10.1 p.393 of the Book: James A. Forte ( 2007), Human Behavior and The Social Environment: Models, Metaphors and Maps for Applying Theoretical Perspectives to Practice Thomson Brooks/Cole Belmont ISBN 0-495-00659-9

Interactionist Theory Map

Geoff McDonnell

IPCC Extreme weather events combined context diagrams FBE WIP

Clone of Adaptation and disaster risk managment approaches for a changing climate

Earl Koteen

Visuals of computational methods for dynamic modelling See Systems Science for Health insight launchpad including links to Nate Osgood and KurtK workshop material

Dynamic Model Frameworks for Health

Geoff McDonnell

last month

From MIT ESD work (de Weck Ilities ) esp on Survivability (Medecki) http://bit.ly/HVsceb and Unarticulated Value (Ross) 2006 PhD pdf

Clone of System change value and ilities

arwa

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

Clone of COVID-19 spread

Pere Mateu Raventós

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

We add simple containment meassures that affect two paramenters, the Susceptible population and the rate to become infected.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

The questions that we want to answer in this kind of models are not the shape of the curves, that are almost known from the beginning, but, when this happens, and the amplitude of the shapes. This is crucial, since in the current circumstance implies the collapse of certain resources, not only healthcare.

The validation process hence becomes critical, and allows to estimate the different parameters of the model from the data we obtain. This simulation approach allows to obtain somethings that is crucial to make decisions, the causality. We can infer this from the assumptions that are implicit on the model, and from it we can make decisions to improve the system behavior.

Yes, simulation works with causality and Flows diagrams is one of the techniques we have to draw it graphically, but is not the only one. On https://sdlps.com/projects/documentation/1009 you can review soon the same model but represented in Specification and Description Language.

Clone of Clone of Clone of SEIRD 02: COVID-19 spread with containment measures

Joan Bernaus Casadesús

4

From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

Clone of Clone of Implementing Chronic Care Management

li xu

Inspiration for the model: The Last of Us, a video game for PlayStation 4.

In this example, we used a system dynamics model to predict a spread of a dangerous infection called Cordyceps Brain Infection, which is immune to any type of antibiotics. In the beginning, the virus was carried by only one person (Infected), which inhaled spores from a plant called cordyceps fungus.

The Infected show their first symptoms after two days, as the infection attacks higher brain functions, making the infected highly aggressive and incapable of reason or rational thoughts.

The infection can be transmitted via bodily fluids; such as saliva, or by inhaling spores from the afore mentioned plant.

It is believed that the infection can last up to 10 years, before the host dies.

Parameters such as Infectivity, Contact Rate and Immunization Rate can be adjusted, but as we are dealing with a highly infectious disease, the starting values are 0.97 (infectivity - in 97% of the cases, the infection will spread to another host); 5 (each infected attacks 5 susceptible person per day); and 0.0001 (only 1 infected per 10,000 infected gets the treatment, as the vaccine can be afforded only by the richest people on the Earth).

Simulation time is set to 50 years. The purpose of this model is to simulate what kind of an effect a deadly infection would have on World's population, if the medicine could not find a cure, or if the cure would be available only for the richest people on the Earth.

The simulation result shows that the Earth's population has been decimated with the disease, and that there are only 7,5 million people left on Earth.

Infectious Disease Model

Emir Guso

Modified from Sterman (2006) and Gene Bellinger's Assumptions IM-351 by Dr Rosemarie Sadsad UNSW See also Complex Decision Technologies IM and IM-63975

Virtual Experiments

Geoff McDonnell

3

See reference in diagram notes. WIP for Environment part of primary care regional model. GP centric calibration by JPS at IM-14117 See also IM-3126 for Regional Health Service Use Context

The Ecology of Medical Care

Geoff McDonnell

Clone of IM-91683 from jacqui and vincy Summary of paper map produced by participants at the compelling case for prevention workshop 6 june 2017. Current premier version for vincy to update

Clone of Concept Map produced by CCP Workshop 1

Geoff McDonnell

5