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This is the third in a series of models that explore the dynamics of infectious diseases. This model looks at the impact of two types of suppression policies.

Press the simulate button to run the model with no policy. Then explore what happens when you set up a lockdown and quarantining policy by changing the settings below. First explore changing the start date with a policy duration of 60 days.

SIRD Epidemic Model with Suppression Policies

Bob Hawkins

7

From Yuan Tian's 2024 paper Early COVID-19 Pandemic Preparedness: Informing Public Health Interventions and Hospital Capacity Planning Through Participatory Hybrid Simulation Modeling and PhD Dissertation 2025 USask Fig 5.1 p96

Hybrid model of early Covid-19

Geoff McDonnell

8 months ago

COVID-19 in France

covid-19

2 өзіндік жұмыс

2бөлім 1 тапсырма

3

COVID-19 Indonesia

Wahyu Nur Hidayatun Nisa

==edited by Prasiantoro Tusono and Rio Swarawan Putra==

Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.

We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured in

https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model

Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure

With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.

Resources:

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2020spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-MAA.nb
https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model

Coronavirus: A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) with death - based on Andrew E Long

prazi.antoro

COVID-19 Model of Puerto Princesa City as of May 19,2023.

COVID-19 Model of Puerto Princesa City

Leenard Sayoto

COVID-19 outbreak model brief description

The model stimulated the COVID-19 outbreak at Burnie in Tasmania. The pandemic spread was driven by infection rate, death rate, recovery rate, and government policy.

The government policy reduces the infection in some way, but it also decreases the physical industry. Online industry plays a vital role during the pandemic and brings more opportunities to the world economy.

The vaccination directly reduces the infection rate. The national border will open as long as residents have been fully vaccinated.

Assumption:

The model was created based on different rates, including infection rate, death rate, testing rate and recovered rate. There will be difference between the real cases and the model.

The model only list five elements of government policies embracing vaccination rate, national border and state border restrictions, public health orders, and business restrictions. Public health order includes social distance and residents should wear masks in high spread regions.

This model only consider two industries which are physical industry, like manufacturer, retailers, or hospitality industries, and online industry. During the pandemic, employees star to work from home and students can have online class. Therefore, the model consider the COVID-19 has positive impact on online industry.

Interesting insights:

The susceptible will decrease dramatically in first two weeks due to high infection rate and low recovery rate and government policy. After that, the number of susceptible will have a slight decline.

The death toll and recovery rate was increased significantly in the first two weeks due to insufficient healthy response. And the trend will become mild as government policy works.

BMA708_DafeiMeng_567691_Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

Dafei Meng

COVID -19 ABM MODEL

Aaditya

A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

Assumptions

Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.

Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.

A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.

Interesting insights

Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.

Clone of Burnie COVID-19 outbreak demo model version 2

Rajaa Sajjad

This stock-flow simulation model is to show Covid-19 virus spread rate, sources of spreading and safety measures followed by all the countries affected around the world.

The simulation also aims at predicting for how much more period of time the virus will persist, how many people could recover at what kind of rate and also about the virus toughness dependence based on its excessive speed, giving rise to bigger numbers day-by-day.

Week-12-Practice

Sai Nagavelli

16

covid 19 in china 1

Dina Kusalina

4 last month

Air Quality and the Effects it has on Human Health in America Post COVID-19

Guadalupe B

Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that an already very weak and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture. As events unfold in the next few months, we may discover that it is too late to act, that our reign on this planet has, indeed, come to an abrupt end?

Covid 19 - irreversible and catastrophic consequences

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

5

Simulasi ini digunakan untuk memodelkan persebaran virus corona di Indonesia untuk kepentingan tugas kuliah

Simulasi Persebaran COVID-19 di Indonesia

Yusri Rahmatul Izza

COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania Simulation Model

Introduction:

This model simulates the COVID-19 outbreak situation in Burnie and how the government responses impact local economy. The COVID-19 pandemic spread is influenced by several factors including infection rate, recovery rate, death rate and government's intervention policies.Government's policies reduce the infection spread and also impact economic activities in Burnie, especially its tourism and local businesses.

Assumptions:

- This model was built based on different rates, including infection rate, recovery rate, death rate, testing rate and economic growth rate. There can be difference between

this model and reality.

- This model considers tourism and local business are the main industries influencing local economy in Burnie.

- Government's intervention policies will positive influence on local COVID-19 spread but also negative impact on local economic activity.

- When there are more than 10 COVID-19 cases confirmed, the government policies will be triggered, which will brings effects both restricting the virus spread and reducing local economic growth.

- Greater COVID-19 cases will negatively influence local economic activities.

Interesting Insights:

Government's vaccination policy will make a important difference on restricting the infection spread. When vaccination rate increase, the number of deaths, infected people and susceptible people all decrease. This may show the importance of the role of government's vaccination policy.

When confirmed cases is more than 10, government's intervention policies are effective on reducing the infections, meanwhile local economic activities will be reduced.

BMA708-Tian Liang-586868-Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

Tian Liang

Disease Dynamics

Sim

2 өзіндік жұмыс

Anarali Abdisattarov

4

SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Italy

Artyom Zainulin

The model here shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie Tasmania, which has impacted in the local economy. the relationship between COVID-19 and economic situation has been shown in the graph. Based on the susceptible and exposed rate, the period of spreading can be controlled by lockdown policy.

Susceptible can be exposed by go out. resident has a possibility to infect and be infected by others. The infection rate, new cases, immunity rate as well as doing exercise can effect the recovery rate. The economy situation is proportionate to the recovery rate. If there are more recovery rate from the pandemic, the economy situation will recover as well.

BMA 708--Assignment 3

Yifei MAO

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

COVID-19 Delta Variant Spread Among Emory Students

Natalia

This model aims to show the outbreak and mitigation approach towards Covid-19 in the Philippines.

Ph_Covid19SDM_Frida Caye B. Taha

Frida Caye B. Taha