COVID-19 outbreak model brief description
The model stimulated the COVID-19 outbreak at Burnie in Tasmania. The pandemic spread was driven by infection rate, death rate, recovery rate, and government policy.
The government policy reduces the infection in some way, but it also decreases the physical industry. Online industry plays a vital role during the pandemic and brings more opportunities to the world economy.
The vaccination directly reduces the infection rate. The national border will open as long as residents have been fully vaccinated.
Assumption:
The model was created based on different rates, including infection rate, death rate, testing rate and recovered rate. There will be difference between the real cases and the model.
The model only list five elements of government policies embracing vaccination rate, national border and state border restrictions, public health orders, and business restrictions. Public health order includes social distance and residents should wear masks in high spread regions.
This model only consider two industries which are physical industry, like manufacturer, retailers, or hospitality industries, and online industry. During the pandemic, employees star to work from home and students can have online class. Therefore, the model consider the COVID-19 has positive impact on online industry.
Interesting insights:
The susceptible will decrease dramatically in first two weeks due to high infection rate and low recovery rate and government policy. After that, the number of susceptible will have a slight decline.
The death toll and recovery rate was increased significantly in the first two weeks due to insufficient healthy response. And the trend will become mild as government policy works.
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