Find Insights | Insight Maker

COVID-19 SD model

Aman Verma

2 өзіндік жұмыс

Anarali Abdisattarov

4

covid 19 South Korea

Асель Комекбай

8

Contamination COVID-19

larry

Systems Project Stock and Flow

Alexis Pelland-Champagne

Brief of the model:

The model predicts the outbreak of COVID-19 in the Burnie, Tasmania area. It is imperative to clarify that this model was developed from the SEIR model (Susceptible, Infected, Infected, Recovered). The spread of this pandemic is driven by a combination of infection rates, mortality rates, and recovery rates from the virus itself, as well as government policies.

For COVID-19 itself, vaccination directly reduces the infection rate, thereby reducing the mortality rate of COVID-19 patients and the reduction of confirmed cases. In other words, if the local population is adequately vaccinated, everyday life, shopping, tourism, and even national borders will be open rather than in a closed border situation.

Assumption of the model:

The model simulated based on different rates, including Infecting rate, Death Rate, Test Rate, Immunity Loss Rate and Recovery Rate. And, this model lists six elements of government policy, which including border closure, travel ban, social distancing, business restriction, self-quarantine, and vaccination schedule.

Besides, the model considers three economic entities in the Burnie area, one in the brick-and-mortar industry and online business industry. Government policies have somewhat reduced COVID-19 infections. Still, they have also at the same time, online businesses played an essential role in stimulating local economic activity during the pandemic. At the same time, however, online businesses played an indispensable role in promoting regional economic activity during the pandemic.

The prediction model is for reference only, and there may be differences between the actual cases and the model.

Insights of the model:

Due to the high infection and low recovery rates and timely government policy interventions, the number of susceptible individuals changes dramatically in the first four weeks. However, the number of sensitive individuals continues to decline after this period, but the decline is not significant. Secondly, with the implementation of government policies, the number of suspected patients who tested negative for medical follow-up continued to rise, implying that government policy interventions directly affect COVID-19.

BMA708_Model of COVID-19 in Burnie_Yuanyuan Liao

Yuanyuan Liao

COVID-19 in USA (dyn.m)

Tamerlan Mukhtarov

4

This Model described the outbreak simulation under government policy and impacts on Economics.

Assumptions

The social distance policy can reduce 80% of infection.

Interesting Insights

The story tell the difference when social distance applied or not

Click on View story to start simulations

BMA708 Task 3 Zijing Zeng 520737

Zijing Zeng

This model shows an SIR model of COVID-19 infection in the Philippines. The data used in this model are recent data from COVID-19 statistics reports this 2022. The format of this Philippine COVID-19 model is guided by an Infection Model developed by martin.

Ph_Covid19SDM_Lilang, Rebekah

Aikah Lilang

==edited by Prasiantoro Tusono and Rio Swarawan Putra==

Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.

We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured in

https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model

Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure

With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.

Resources:

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2020spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-MAA.nb
https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model

Coronavirus: A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) with death - based on Andrew E Long

prazi.antoro

SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Italy

Ozindik zhymys

covid-19

Өзіндік жұмыс агент

5

This is a complex model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania. It show the effect of government policy to local economic and the impact of Covid-19.

Assumptions

Government policy can reduce the number of infected, however also would reduce the economic growth.

Interesting insights

Based on changing the value of government policy, it show that the policy can help to reduce on the number of death and infection.

Covid-19 Out break

Wing Ki Ng

Model description:

This model is designed to simulate the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie in Tasmania, death cases, the governmental responses and Burnie local economy.

More importantly, the impact of governmental responses to both Covid-19 infection and to local economy, the impact of death cases to local economy are illustrated.

The model is based on SIR (Susceptible, Infected and recovered) model.

Variables:

The simulation takes into account the following variables:

Variables related to Covid-19: (1): Infection rate. (2): Recovery rate. (3): Death rate. (4): Immunity loss rate.

Variables related to Governmental policies: (1): Vaccination mandate. (2): Travel restriction to Burnie. (3): Economic support. (4): Gathering restriction.

Variables related to economic growth: Economic growth rate.

Adjustable variables are listed in the part below, together with the adjusting range.

Assumptions:

(1): Governmental policies are aimed to control(reduce) Covid-19 infections and affect (both reduce and increase) economic growth accordingly.

(2) Governmental policy will only be applied when reported cases are 10 or more.

(3) The increasing cases will negatively influence Burnie economic growth.

Enlightening insights:

(1) Vaccination mandate, when changing from 80% to 100%, doesn't seem to affect the number of death cases.

(2) Governmental policies are effectively control the growing death cases and limit it to 195.

Burnie Tasmania Covid - 19 outbreak simulation Model by Yankang Huang 541 277