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New SEIR COVID-19
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Өздік жұмыс-1
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Model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

When reported COVID-19 cases begin to show a rapid increase, the government will initiate control policies to deal with the spread.As the number of people tested increases and measures such as isolation and medical assistance are implemented, the number of people infected will decline rapidly.Therefore, the government's policy is to reduce and eliminate sources of transmission by increasing the number of tests and initiating control measures.At the same time, it also shows the negative impact of economic growth, which according to the model will stop in the next 20 weeks.

Model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania (Yimeng Yao 448253)
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Model di samping adalah model SEIR yang telah dimodifikasi sehingga dapat digunakan untuk menyimulasikan perkembangan penyebaran COVID-19.
Clone of SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Indonesia
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1 тапсырма
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covid 19 in china 1
4 4 days ago
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SARS-CoV-19 spread in different countries
- please adjust variables accordingly

Italy
  • elderly population (>65): 0.228
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 4-11
  • starting population size: 60 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.32 (gbe-bund)
  • heart disease: 0.04 (statista)
  • free intensive care units: 3 100

Germany
  • elderly population (>65): 0.195 (bpb)
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 2-3 (deutschlandfunk)
  • starting population size: 83 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.26 (gbe-bund)
  • heart disease: 0.2-0.28 (herzstiftung)
  • free intensive care units: 5 880

France
  • elderly population (>65): 0.183 (statista)
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 3-5
  • starting population size: 67 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.3 (fondation-recherche-cardio-vasculaire)
  • heart disease: 0.1-0.2 (oecd)
  • free intensive care units: 3 000

As you wish
  • numbers of encounters/day: 1 = quarantine, 2-3 = practicing social distancing, 4-6 = heavy social life, 7-9 = not caring at all // default 2
  • practicing preventive measures (ie. washing hands regularly, not touching your face etc.): 0.1 (nobody does anything) - 1 (very strictly) // default 0.8
  • government elucidation: 0.1 (very bad) - 1 (highly transparent and educating) // default 0.9
  • Immunity rate (due to lacking data): 0 (you can't get immune) - 1 (once you had it you'll never get it again) // default 0.4

Key
  • Healthy: People are not infected with SARS-CoV-19 but could still get it
  • Infected: People have been infected and developed the disease COVID-19
  • Recovered: People just have recovered from COVID-19 and can't get it again in this stage
  • Dead: People died because of COVID-19
  • Immune: People got immune and can't get the disease again
  • Critical recovery percentage: Chance of survival with no special medical treatment
SARS-CoV-19 model
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If no attempt is made to eradicate SARS-CoV-2 it will eventually become endemic, ineradicable, at a high never-ending cost to world in terms of economic growth, human health and lives. The current strategy adopted by most governments is to impose  restrictive measures when the virus threatens to overwhelm hospital services and to relax these restrictions as this danger recedes. This is short-sighted. It cannot eliminate the highly infectious delta variant, which has an estimated R0-value of between 6 & 9. Periodic lockdowns will be hard to avoid in the future.

However, eradication is possible, herd immunity can be achieved quickly worldwide, reducing the R0 permanently to below 1, which will lead to the disappearance of the virus. Critical in achieving this is Ivermectin, a medicine that is cheap,  readily available and can be manufactured by most countries. A recent meta study has shown that Ivermectin, prophylactically employed, can prevent infection with the virus  by 86 % on average – very similar to the efficacy of vaccines. Eradication will require employment of all the instruments shown in the graph: future generations do not have to live with this plague. 

SarsCov 2: Countering its Dynamic
Insight diagram
Model di samping adalah model SEIR yang telah dimodifikasi sehingga dapat digunakan untuk menyimulasikan perkembangan penyebaran COVID-19.
Clone of SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Indonesia
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SD MODEL COVID-19
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This diagram will map out the spread of the Coronavirus (SAR-CoV-2) and its complexities of health care.
Covid-19
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Atakan Han 150501024 

During the Covid-19 Outbreak Model
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Агентное моделирование Covid-19
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Explanation of the Model

This is a sample model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania showing how the Government responds by implementing relevant health policy and the effects on the Economy of the area. 
 
Assumptions

Economic growth rate is dependent on the proportion of the population who can be exposed. Number of COVID cases negatively impacts the economy. Govt policy is triggered when COVID-19 cases are 10 or more.

Interesting Insights

1) Exposure to the disease has a positive relationship with economic growth rate because the more people goes out, more business activity takes place, resulting in Economic Growth.

2) Increasing the Testing rate results in:

- Higher cases being detected

- Stricter Govt Policy

- Less Deaths


 


Clone of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania
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Pemodelan COVID-19
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The System Dynamics Model presents the the COVID-19 status in Germany
Өзіндік жұмыс соңғы
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Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

Infectious Disease Model V1.0
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системное Америка
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2 самост
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The System Dynamics Model presents the the COVID-19 status in Puerto Princesa City
Ауру Динамикасы COVID-19
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This model calculates and demonstrates the possible spread of COVID-19 through an agent-based map. It shows the timeline of a healthy individual being infected to recovery.
COVID Model
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Atakan Han 150501024 

After the Covid-19 Outbreak Model
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From Yuan Tian's 2024 paper Early COVID-19 Pandemic Preparedness: Informing Public Health Interventions and Hospital Capacity Planning Through Participatory Hybrid Simulation Modeling and  PhD Dissertation 2025 USask Fig 5.1 p96 
Hybrid model of early Covid-19
7 months ago