Model di samping adalah model SEIR yang telah dimodifikasi sehingga dapat digunakan untuk menyimulasikan perkembangan penyebaran COVID-19.

Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an already very weak  and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture.  As events unfold in the next few months,  we may discover that it is too late to act,  that our reign on this planet has, indeed,  come to an abrupt end?  

A systems model of the relationships amongst economic situation, health situations and Covid-19 in Burnie, Tasmania.

This model is designed for the local government of Burnie, Tasmania, aiming to help with balancing COIVD-19 and economic impacts during a possible outbreak. 

The model has been developed based upon the SIR model (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model used in epidemiology. 

It lists several possible actions that can be taken by the government during a COVID-19 outbreak and provide the economic impact simulation. 

The model allow users to Change the government policies factors (Strength of Policies) and simulate the total economic impact.

Interestingly, the government plicies largely help with controlling the COVID outbreak. However, the stronger the policies are, the larger impact on local economy

This model describes the whole process about government response and economic impact when the covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. When the reported cases increase to a certain level, the government realizes its high risk, then publishes a series of policies to protect the public, such as travel restriction, social distance and quarantine. The economic damage is also severe, especially for tourism and hostility industry and retail industry.

 

Clearly, in the beginning, the number of infected people and death cases increase sharply, but due to government policies and vaccination, it effectively reduces covid-19 cases. For economy, on one hand, the government health policies slow down the pace of growth, on the other hand, the government build vaccine confidence, which leads to more people getting vaccinated, and help the economy back to normal.

This model was created for ENGR 102 - Studio 2