This model shows the simulation of COVID-19 outbreaks
when it hit Burnie, Tasmania. This model will show how government intervention
will impact the total number in COVID 19 cases and the overall economic
activity.
Assumptions
1. The current Burnie population in 19550.
Therefore, the susceptible population is equal to the current Burnie population.
2.
Since Burnie is just a regional city, the virus
infection rate is 25% as 5000 people in Burnie went into quarantine during the
outbreak last year.
3.
50% of people who are infected will recover.
4.
20% of people who are infected will die because
Burnie population average is old.
5.
Government intervention and policy will reduce
the Infection
6.
COVID-19 is only countable as a case if the
infected people have been tested, and the percentage of testing depends on how
many infected people have been tested.
7.
Following a recovery, there is a chance that
people could lose their immunity, and also the immunity loss rate measures
this.
8.
Government intervention will reduce the
infection rate by 15%.
9.
Lockdown will cause tourism industry to shut down
and affect the overall economic activity.
10.
Lockdown is one of the most effective way to
prevent infection.
11.
Strict health protocol also contributes to reduce
the infection.
12.
Vaccination will not make people fully immune to
the virus. However, vaccinated people will reduce the immunity loss percentage.
13.
Economic growth rate percentage is based on year
2020.
Findings
1.
COVID-19 could be significantly reduced in
number and the spread of the vaccine could make a significant impact on the
epidemic.
2.
Economic activity will drop during the first
phase of government intervention, However, it will steadily increase overtime
3.
Less people going to be susceptible as government
imposed covid 19 rules.
