The macroeconomic ruel: SPENDING = INCOME = OUTPUT, WHICH DRIVES EMPLOYMENT is presented here in a schematic form. Output can be taken to be equivalent to GDP. In order to maintain output it is necessary for all the income earned to be spent. If this is not the case, then companies find they have excess unsold stock on their hands and will cut back on production. This, in time, will lead to an increase in unemployment as companies need fewer employees. The shortfall in spending can be made up by any of the three sectors that contribute to total output. However, in cases where a country has a trade deficit and where the private sector is not spending or investing enough, the only option is for the government to Net Spend i.e. to spend more than it collected in taxes causing a fiscal deficit.
COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania Simulation Model
Introduction
This model simulates how COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie and how the government responses influence the economic community. Government responses are based on the reported COVID-19 cases amount, whcih is considered to be based on testing rate times number of people who are infected minus those recovered from COVID-19 and dead.
Government interventions include the implement of healthy policy, border surveillance, quarantine and travel restriction. After outbreak, economic activities are positively affected by the ecommerce channel development and normal economic grwoth, while the unemployement rate unfortunately increases as well.
Assumption
Enforcing government policies reduce both infection and economica growth.
When there are 10 or greater COVID-19 cases reported, the governmwnt policies are triggered.
Greater COVID-19 cases have negatively influenced the economic activities.
Government policies restict people's activities socially and economically, leading to negative effects on economy.
Opportunities for jobs are cut down too, making umemployment rate increased.
During the outbreak period, ecommerce has increased accordingly because people are restricted from going out.
Interesting insights
An increase in vaccination rate will make difference on reduing the infection. People who get vaccinated are seen to have higher immunity index to fight with COVID-19. Further research is needed.
Testing rate is considered as critical issue to reflect the necessity of government intervention. Higher testing rate seems to boost immediate intervention. Reinforced policies can then reduce the spread of coronvirus but absoluately have negative impacts on economy too.
Clone of Mengling Xue 561743 BMA708_Marketing insights into Big Data
This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Jim Webb. The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA)
available:
http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf
DRAFT IPA of Jim Webb POTUS candidate economic policy
Modern industrial civilisation has created massive
interdependencies which define it and without which it could not function. We all
depend on industrial farming to produce the food we eat, we depend on gasoline
being available at the gas station, on the
availability of electricity and even on the bread supplied by the local baker. Naturally,
we tend to support the institutions that supply the amenities and goods to
which we have become accustomed: if we get our food from the local supermarket,
it is likely that we would be opposed to it’s closure. This means that the economic
system that relies on continuous growth enjoys implicit societal support and that
nothing short of environmental disaster or a shortage of essential raw
materials will impede it’s growing indefinitely. It is not hard to work out the
consequences of this situation!
Clone of The Inescapable Dynamic of Economic Growth (Version 2)
Modern industrial civilisation has created massive
interdependencies which define it and without which it could not function. We all
depend on industrial farming to produce the food we eat, we depend on gasoline
being available at the gas station, on the
availability of electricity and even on the bread supplied by the local baker. Naturally,
we tend to support the institutions that supply the amenities and goods to
which we have become accustomed: if we get our food from the local supermarket,
it is likely that we would be opposed to it’s closure. This means that the economic
system that relies on continuous growth enjoys implicit societal support and that
nothing short of environmental disaster or a shortage of essential raw
materials will impede it’s growing indefinitely. It is not hard to work out the
consequences of this situation!
Clone of The Inescapable Dynamic of Economic Growth
Theory of Structural Change for IAMO Research Group
The part-whole paradigm
Examples of
research issues addressed here include the path dependence of farm structures,
regime shifts in land-system change, as well as transitional processes in the
evolution of farm structures and innovation systems. All these issues feature
counter-intuitive systemic properties that could not have been predicted using
standard agricultural economics tools. The key strength of the research group
in regard to the part-whole paradigm is the internationally renowned expertise
in the agent-based modelling of agricultural policy. (More on what happened here until now / is happening now)
The system-environment paradigm
This paradigm is represented by conceptual
research drawing inspiration from Niklas Luhmann’s theory of “complexity-reducing”
and “operationally closed” social systems. The attributes of complexity
reduction and operational closure are shown to generate sustainability
problems, conflicts, social dilemmas, ethical issues, and divergent mental
models. The organizing idea explaining these phenomena is the
complexity-sustainability trade-off, i.e., the tendency of the operationally
closed systems to develop excessive internal complexity that overstrains the
carrying capacity of the environment. Until now, the conceptual work along
these lines has focused on developing the systems-theoretic principles of
ecological degradation and highlighted the sustainability-enhancing role of
nonprofit organizations and corporate social responsibility. Another overarching
topic has been the analysis of connections between Luhmann’s social systems
theory and the evolutionary economics approaches, such as those of Thorstein
Veblen and Kenneth Boulding. <!--[if gte mso 9]>
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This model attempts to illustrate a Strong Towns' perspective of municipal financing of our communities based on a development Growth Ponzi Scheme. http://www.strongtowns.org/the-growth-ponzi-scheme/
The communal economic investment by the community to help generate future economic prosperity and improve the community's quality of life.
If the community generates greater economic prosperity as a result of the Near Term Cash either directly through increased Municipal Revenue or indirectly through the enhancement of Community Wealth Generators and Place Making improvements within the community then it is a desirable investment.
If, however, it leads to ever increasing debt and the chasing of outside investments with the community as the means of collateral then it is a Growth Ponzi Scheme and the community needs to create some new paradigms to find a different path.
The upper
diagram shows the principal factors that have an influence on the budget
deficit and indicates what needs to be done to correct it. But this is not the
full story. The diagram below shows that
cutting public expenditure reduces aggregate demand and increases unemployment. The reduction of
aggregate demand reduces economic activity which has the effect of reducing
tax revenue. In addition, the state has to pay out funds
as there is a need for more unemployment benefit payments. The result of these austerity measures is often the opposite of their intended
purpose: they can increase rather than decrease the budget deficit.
There is
plenty of empiric evidence to show that this has happened time and time again.
For instance, a report from UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and
Development) found that between 1990 and 2000 in all the cases examined where cutbacks in public
spending and tax increases were used, the fiscal situation did not only not
improve but worsened. Despite such repeated evidence, unfortunately calls for austerity measures continue to be heard.
This model was designed from the SIR model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19 outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.
Assumptions
The government policy is triggered when the number of infected is more than ten.
The government policies will take a negative effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.
Adjusted parameter: Immunity loss rate can be changed from vaccination rate.
Government policy's parameters
Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)
Economic's parameters
Fixed parameter: Tourism
Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)
Interesting insight
An increased vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system still needs a long time to recover in both cases.
