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This model is developed to simulate how Burnie can deal with a new outbreak of COVID-19 considering health and economic outcomes. The time limit of the simulation is 100 days when a stable circumstance is reached.

Stocks

There are four stocks involved in this model. Susceptible represents the number of people that potentially could be infected. Infected refers to the number of people infected at the moment. Recovered means the number of people that has been cured, but it could turn into susceptible given a specific period of time since the immunity does not seem everlasting. Death case refers to the total number of death since the beginning of outbreak. The sum of these four stocks add up to the initial population of the town.

Variables

There are four variables in grey colour that indicate rates or factors of infection, recovery, death or economic outcomes. They usually cannot be accurately identified until it happen, therefore they can be modified by the user to adjust for a better simulation outcome.

Immunity loss rate seems to be less relevant in this case because it is usually unsure and varies for individuals, therefore it is fixed in this model.

The most interesting variable in green represents the government policy, which in this situation should be shifting the financial resources to medical resources to control infection rate, reduce death rate and increase recovery rate. It is limited from 0 to 0.8 since a government cannot shift all of the resources. Bigger scale means more resources are shifted. The change of government policy will be well reflected in the economic outcome, users are encouraged to adjust it to see the change.

The economic outcome is the variable that roughly reflects the daily income of the whole town, which cannot be accurate but it does indicate the trend.

Assumptions:

The recovery of the infected won't happen until 30 days later since it is usually a long process. And the start of death will be delayed for 14 days considering the characteristic of the virus.

Economic outcome will be affected by the number of infected since the infected cannot normally perform financial activities.

Immunity effect is fixed at 30 days after recovery.

Interesting Insights:

In this model it is not hard to find that extreme government policy does not result in the best economic outcome, but the values in-between around 0.5 seems to reach the best financial outcome while the health issues are not compromised. That is why usually the government need to balance health and economic according to the circumstance.

New outbreak of COVID-19 in Burnie

Hank

test

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This model demonstrate how the exisitng tested COVID cases effects economic recovery via goverment intervenes.

Assumption:Goverment intervenes positively contribute on transmission, patients recovery, and death elimination. When existing cases equal or lower than 10 cases, economic growth will be soaring with helps of influencial elements.

Interesting points: even though there are certain amount of unknow cases, enhancing social restriction and increasing test rate ould still reduce amount of cases

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From Walrave ISDC2014 paper Counteracting the success trap in publically owned corporations. Similar to the ordinary (efficiency focussed) and dynamic capabilities (explore) insight described by David Teece

See also evolution and brain control insight

Explore or Exploit

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This paper aims at describing a case where system dynamics modeling was used to evaluate the effects of information and material supply lead-time variation on sales contributions margins and operating cash conversion cycle of a commodity export business. An empirical dynamic model, loaded with econometric theory of price effect on competitive demand, was used to describe the input data. The model simulation outputs proved themselves relevant in analyzing the complex interconnections of multiple variables affecting the profitability in a commercial routine, supporting the decision process among sales managers.

Article SDR Case study System dynamic modelling

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Simple causal loop diagram of a simple interest savings account.

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WFA4133 Graham-Schaefer model with variable F & Econmics

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How education causes the gap between socio-economic status?

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OVERSHOOT GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

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I made this as an illustration of a piece of text I read in Regenerative Economics, household economics.

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This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Scott Walker based on the information at: https://www.scottwalker.com/news/why-i%E2%80%99m-running-president The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

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Description

Model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

This model was designed from the SIR model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19 outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.

Assumptions

The government policy is triggered when the number of infected is more than ten.

The government policies will take a negative effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.

Parameters

We set some fixed and adjusted variables.

Covid-19 outbreak's parameter

Fixed parameters: Infection rate, Background disease, recovery rate.

Adjusted parameter: Immunity loss rate can be changed from vaccination rate.

Government policy's parameters

Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)

Economic's parameters

Fixed parameter: Tourism

Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)

Interesting insight

An increased vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system still needs a long time to recover in both cases.

Untitled Insight

NGUYEN DANG KHOA VO

WIP concepts from Rachel Turner's Book Neo-liberal Ideology

Neoliberal concepts

Geoff McDonnell

economic inequality

Vo Thi Hoang Anh

This paper aims at describing a case where system dynamics modeling was used to evaluate the effects of information and material supply lead-time variation on sales contributions margins and operating cash conversion cycle of a commodity export business. An empirical dynamic model, loaded with econometric theory of price effect on competitive demand, was used to describe the input data. The model simulation outputs proved themselves relevant in analyzing the complex interconnections of multiple variables affecting the profitability in a commercial routine, supporting the decision process among sales managers.

SDR Case study System dynamic modelling

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Social determinants of health are economic and social conditions that influence the health of people and communities. These conditions are shaped by the amount of money, power, and resources that people have, all of which are influenced by policy choices. Social determinants of health affect factors that are related to health outcomes. Factors related to health outcomes include:

How a person develops during the first few years of life (early childhood development)
How much education a persons obtains
Being able to get and keep a job
What kind of work a person does
Having food or being able to get food (food security)
Having access to health services and the quality of those services
Housing status
How much money a person earns
Discrimination and social support

Determinates of a healthy population