The model shows the industry connection and conflict between Forestry and Mountain Tourism in Derby, Tasmania. The objective of this simulation is to find out the balance point for co-exist.
How Does the Model Work?
Both industries can provide economic contribution to Tasmania. Firstly, selling timbers through logging would generate income. Also, spendings from mountain bike riders would generate incomes. However, low tree regrowth rate can not cover up logging, which influences the beautiful vistas and riders' experiences. While satisfaction and expectation depend on vistas and experience, the demand of mountain biking would be influenced through repeat visits and world of mouth as well.
Interesting Insights
Although forestry can provide a great amount of economic contribution to Tasmania, over logging goes against ESG framework as well as creating conflict with mountain tourism. As long as the number of rider visits is stable, tourism can always provide a greater economic contribution compared to forestry. Therefore, the government should consider the balance point between two industries.
Simulation of Derby Mountain Bikes versus Forestry
Simple model of the global economy, the global carbon cycle, and planetary energy balance.
The planetary energy balance model is a two-box model, with shallow and deep ocean heat reservoirs. The carbon cycle model is a 4-box model, with the atmosphere, shallow ocean, deep ocean, and terrestrial carbon.
The economic model is based on the Kaya identity, which decomposes CO2 emissions into population, GDP/capita, energy intensity of GDP, and carbon intensity of energy. It allows for temperature-related climate damages to both GDP and the growth rate of GDP.
This model was originally created by Bob Kopp (Rutgers University) in support of the SESYNC Climate Learning Project.
People, generally, do not seem to be conscious of, or care
about, the enormous dangers of climate change and even the possibility of a
devastating war in the Korean peninsula that could turn nuclear. They carry on
with their routine and banal conversations as if that was all that mattered. In
the 60s there were peace demonstration, there was more awareness and public engagement
in the face of the thread of nuclear war. Could the pressures and demands of modern
capitalism, now no longer tamed by a competing communist system that could potentially
appear to be more attractive, be a causal factor? People caught up in the turmoil of a positive
feedback loop rarely perceive reality beyond it. This simple CLD tries to
illustrate the dynamic and feedback loops that could be responsible for this strange
apathy and how our present day economic system could be blinding us to imminent
danger.
The model here shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie Tasmania, which has impacted in the local economy. the relationship between COVID-19 and economic situation has been shown in the graph. Based on the susceptible analysis, people who usual go out are might have chance to meet susceptible people and have a high rate to be infected. The period of spreading can be controlled by keeping social distance and Government lockdown policy.
Susceptible can be exposed by go out. resident has a possibility to infect and be infected by others. people who might be die due to the lack of immunity. and others would recover and get the immune.
Beside, the economy situation is proportionate to the recovery rate. If there are more recovery rate from the pandemic, the employment rate will be increased and the economy situation will recover as well.
COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, TAS. BMA708 Assignment 3
If private bond holdings are going down and the government is running a big deficit then the central bank has to monetize bonds equal to the deficit plus the decrease in private bond holdings. We don't show the details of the central bank buying bonds here, just the net results.
See blog at http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com for more on hyperinflation, including a hyperinflation FAQ.
This model attempts to illustrate a Strong Towns' perspective of municipal financing of our communities based on a development Growth Ponzi Scheme. http://www.strongtowns.org/the-growth-ponzi-scheme/
The communal economic investment by the community to help generate future economic prosperity and improve the community's quality of life.
If the community generates greater economic prosperity as a result of the Near Term Cash either directly through increased Municipal Revenue or indirectly through the enhancement of Community Wealth Generators and Place Making improvements within the community then it is a desirable investment.
If, however, it leads to ever increasing debt and the chasing of outside investments with the community as the means of collateral then it is a Growth Ponzi Scheme and the community needs to create some new paradigms to find a different path.
From Bill Mitchell and Warren Mosler December2018 billy blog entry and mosler's MMT white paper (google docs) 2019. Some highly aggregated stocks and flows and boundaries introduced.See also Feb 2026 updated insight
Added several versions of the model. Added a flow to make C increase. Added a factor to be able to change the value 0.5. Older version cloned at IM-46280
This model was designed from the SIR
model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19
outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.
Assumptions:
The government policy is triggered when the
number of infected is more than ten.
The government policies will take a negative
effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.
Parameters:
We set some fixed and adjusted variables.
Covid-19 outbreak's parameter
Fixed parameter: Background
disease.
Adjusted parameters: Infection rate, recovery rate. Immunity loss rate can be
changed from vaccination rate.
Government policy's parameters
Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15
to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social
distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)
Economic's parameters
Fixed parameter: Tourism
Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from
0.3 to 0.5)
Interesting insight
An increased vaccination rate and testing
rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little
more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system
still needs a long time to recover in both cases.
BMA708_Assignment 3_Nguyen Dang Khoa Vo_520272_COVID-19 outbreak and Burnie economy
The macroeconomic ruel: SPENDING = INCOME = OUTPUT, WHICH DRIVES EMPLOYMENT is presented here in a schematic form. Output can be taken to be equivalent to GDP. In order to maintain output it is necessary for all the income earned to be spent. If this is not the case, then companies find they have excess unsold stock on their hands and will cut back on production. This, in time, will lead to an increase in unemployment as companies need fewer employees. The shortfall in spending can be made up by any of the three sectors that contribute to total output. However, in cases where a country has a trade deficit and where the private sector is not spending or investing enough, the only option is for the government to Net Spend i.e. to spend more than it collected in taxes causing a fiscal deficit.
A framework exploring flood risk management in a developing city, under
the new paradigm of coexist - characterised by broader, system-wide goals, a recognition of the role played and benefits provided by flood processes, and higher levels of flood risk awareness.
This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Jim Webb. The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA)
available:
http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf
DRAFT IPA of Jim Webb POTUS candidate economic policy
