This
paper aims at describing a case where system dynamics modeling was used to evaluate
the effects of information and material supply lead-time variation on sales
contributions margins and operating cash conversion cycle of a commodity export
business. An empirical dynamic model,
loaded with econometric theory of price effect on competitive demand, was used
to describe the input data. The model simulation
outputs proved themselves relevant in analyzing the complex interconnections of
multiple variables affecting the
profitability in a commercial routine, supporting the decision process among
sales managers.
Any activity requires the use of energy. Economic activity
is not possible without energy,
especially fossil fuels. An increase in economic activity necessarily
leads to an increase in the use fossil
fuels and greenhouse gas emissions. In addition there will be a commensurate increase in waste products,
pollution and heat. This is dictated by the laws of physics and unavoidable. A problem arise when the cost of this degeneration
caused by continual economic growth surpasses the benefit society derives from it. The ecological economist Professor Herman Daly (2014) explained that
when the impact on the ecosystem is correctly measured, global growth has reached
a point where the total private and social costs of economic growth outweigh
the private and social benefits. In other words, more economic growth is making global society worse off overall - growth has become uneconomic! The model
shows that eventually pressures will build up that counteract the perennial
belief that all social ills can be solved with economic growth.
This model simulates the economics of buying a home. It was created to compare buying a home against using investment returns to pay for rent. According to Micheal Finke, house prices typically run 20x monthly rental rates.
Try cloning this insight, setting the parameter values for real-world scenarios, and then running sensitivity analysis (see tools) to determine the likely wealth outcomes. Compare buying a home to renting. Note that each run will keep the parameters the same while simulating market volatility.
This is a system dynamics model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie which shows the process of infections and how government responses, impact on the local economy.
First part is outbreak model, we can know that when people is infected, there are two situations. One is that he recovers from treatment, but even if he recovered, the immunity loss rate increase, makes him to become infected again. The other situation is death. In this outbreak, the government's health policies (ban on non-essential trips, closure of non-essential retailers, limits on public gatherings and quarantine ) help to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 new cases. Moreover, government legislation is dependent on number of COVID-19 cases and testing rates.
Second part: the model of Govt legislation and economic impact. Gov policy can help to reduce infection rate and local economy at same way. The increase of number of COVID-19 cases has a negative impact on local Tourism industry and economic growth rate. On the other hand, Govt legislation also can be change when reported COVID-19 case are less or equal to 10.
Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie(Yafei Shi 489576)
COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania Simulation Model
Introduction:
This model simulates the COVID-19 outbreak situation in Burnie and how the government responses impact local economy. The COVID-19 pandemic spread is influenced by several factors including infection rate, recovery rate, death rate and government's intervention policies.Government's policies reduce the infection spread and also impact economic activities in Burnie, especially its tourism and local businesses.
Assumptions:
- This model was built based on different rates, including infection rate, recovery rate, death rate, testing rate and economic growth rate. There can be difference between
this model and reality.
- This model considers tourism and local business are the main industries influencing local economy in Burnie.
- Government's intervention policies will positive influence on local COVID-19 spread but also negative impact on local economic activity.
- When there are more than 10 COVID-19 cases confirmed, the government policies will be triggered, which will brings effects both restricting the virus spread and reducing local economic growth.
- Greater COVID-19 cases will negatively influence local economic activities.
Interesting Insights:
Government's vaccination policy will make a important difference on restricting the infection spread. When vaccination rate increase, the number of deaths, infected people and susceptible people all decrease. This may show the importance of the role of government's vaccination policy.
When confirmed cases is more than 10, government's intervention policies are effective on reducing the infections, meanwhile local economic activities will be reduced.
BMA708-Tian Liang-586868-Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania
FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system! (governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)
The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed
The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept and flawed strategy of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks
See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)
The relationship, as described in the model Influence and Concern, insightmaker.com/insight/22757/Influence-Concern can be flipped when speaking of institutions of political or economic power. A government institution may have a great deal of power, though not necessarily understanding, over a system but little Concern as to its particular outputs or lack of outputs.
This high-level
simulation model presented by Jay Forrester in his book World Dynamics, simulates
socio-economic-environmental world system. The world Model was created in a
time where pollution and other negative effects of industrialization and
economic growth started to become recognized in 1970. For this exam purpose, we have
rebuilt the model to do some experiments and analyze the results.
From Schluter et al 2017 article A framework for mapping and comparing behavioural theories in models of social-ecological systems COMSeS2017 video.See also Balke and Gilbert 2014 JASSS article How do agents make decisions? (recommended by Kurt Kreuger U of S)
This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Rick Perry's economic policy based on the information at: https://rickperry.org/issues/
The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA)
available:
http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf
