Clusters of interacting methods for improving health services network design and delivery. Includes Forrester quotes on statistical vs SD methods and the Modeller's dilemma. Simplified version of IM-14982 combined with IM-17598 and IM-9773
Goodwin cycle IM-2010 with debt and taxes added, modified from Steve Keen's illustration of Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis "stability begets instability". This can be extended by adding the Ponzi effect of borrowing for speculative investment.
The model here shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie Tasmania, which has impacted in the local economy. the relationship between COVID-19 and economic situation has been shown in the graph. Based on the susceptible analysis, people who usual go out are might have chance to meet susceptible people and have a high rate to be infected. The period of spreading can be controlled by keeping social distance and Government lockdown policy.
Susceptible can be exposed by go out. resident has a possibility to infect and be infected by others. people who might be die due to the lack of immunity. and others would recover and get the immune.
Beside, the economy situation is proportionate to the recovery rate. If there are more recovery rate from the pandemic, the employment rate will be increased and the economy situation will recover as well.
Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause,
in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most
fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit)
since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that an already very weak and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with
extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the
industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American
economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a
second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global
Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but
emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the
atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight
back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these
aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as
much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period
time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the
furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting
dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture. As events unfold in the next few months, we may discover that it is too late to act, that our reign on this planet has, indeed, come to an abrupt end?
Covid 19 - irreversible and catastrophic consequences
Added several versions of the model. Added a flow to make C increase. Added a factor to be able to change the value 0.5. Older version cloned at IM-46280
FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system! (governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)
The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed
The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept and flawed strategy of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks
See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)
If private bond holdings are going down and the government is running a big deficit then the central bank has to monetize bonds equal to the deficit plus the decrease in private bond holdings. We don't show the details of the central bank buying bonds here, just the net results.
See blog at http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com for more on hyperinflation, including a hyperinflation FAQ.
The macroeconomic ruel: SPENDING = INCOME = OUTPUT, WHICH DRIVES EMPLOYMENT is presented here in a schematic form. Output can be taken to be equivalent to GDP. In order to maintain output it is necessary for all the income earned to be spent. If this is not the case, then companies find they have excess unsold stock on their hands and will cut back on production. This, in time, will lead to an increase in unemployment as companies need fewer employees. The shortfall in spending can be made up by any of the three sectors that contribute to total output. However, in cases where a country has a trade deficit and where the private sector is not spending or investing enough, the only option is for the government to Net Spend i.e. to spend more than it collected in taxes causing a fiscal deficit.
This model was designed from the SIR
model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19
outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.
Assumptions:
The government policy is triggered when the
number of infected is more than ten.
The government policies will take a negative
effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.
Parameters:
We set some fixed and adjusted variables.
Covid-19 outbreak's parameter
Fixed parameter: Background
disease.
Adjusted parameters: Infection rate, recovery rate. Immunity loss rate can be
changed from vaccination rate.
Government policy's parameters
Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15
to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social
distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)
Economic's parameters
Fixed parameter: Tourism
Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from
0.3 to 0.5)
Interesting insight
An increased vaccination rate and testing
rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little
more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system
still needs a long time to recover in both cases.
BMA708_Assignment 3_Nguyen Dang Khoa Vo_520272_COVID-19 outbreak and Burnie economy
This model attempts to illustrate a Strong Towns' perspective of municipal financing of our communities based on a development Growth Ponzi Scheme. http://www.strongtowns.org/the-growth-ponzi-scheme/
The communal economic investment by the community to help generate future economic prosperity and improve the community's quality of life.
If the community generates greater economic prosperity as a result of the Near Term Cash either directly through increased Municipal Revenue or indirectly through the enhancement of Community Wealth Generators and Place Making improvements within the community then it is a desirable investment.
If, however, it leads to ever increasing debt and the chasing of outside investments with the community as the means of collateral then it is a Growth Ponzi Scheme and the community needs to create some new paradigms to find a different path.
This model simulates the economics of buying a home. It was created to compare buying a home against using investment returns to pay for rent. According to Micheal Finke, house prices typically run 20x monthly rental rates.
Try cloning this insight, setting the parameter values for real-world scenarios, and then running sensitivity analysis (see tools) to determine the likely wealth outcomes. Compare buying a home to renting. Note that each run will keep the parameters the same while simulating market volatility.
