From a March 2016 blog entry by Ari Andricopoulos

An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.

Fig 17.15 p700 Causal structure of commercial real estate markets of Case Study from John Sterman's 2000 Business Dynamics Book 

Description

 

The model shows Covid-19 situations in Burnie, Tasmania. Under such circumstances, how the state government deals with the pandemic and how economy changes will be illustrated. The relationship between government policy and economic activities under Covid-19 outbreaks will be explained through different variables.

Assumptions

 

Government policy negatively affects Covid-19 outbreaks and economic activities.

Covid-19 outbreaks also has negative effects on economic growth.

 

Parameters

 

There are several fixed and adjusted variables.

 

1.     COVID-19 Outbreaks

Fixed variables: infection rate, recovery rate

Adjusted variables: immunity loss rate

 

2.     Government Policy

Adjusted variables: lockdown, social distancing, testing, vaccination

3.     Economic impact

Fixed variables: tourism

Adjusted variables: economic growth rate

 

Interesting Insights

 

Tourism seems to be the most effective way to bring back economic growth in Tasmania, and it takes time to recover from Covid-19.

 

Government policies tend to have negative influences on economic growth.

Social determinants of health are economic and social conditions that influence the health of people and communities. These conditions are shaped by the amount of money, power, and resources that people have, all of which are influenced by policy choices. Social determinants of health affect factors that are related to health outcomes. Factors related to health outcomes include:

• How a person develops during the first few years of life (early childhood development)
• How much education a persons obtains
• Being able to get and keep a job
• What kind of work a person does
• Having food or being able to get food (food security)
• Having access to health services and the quality of those services
• Housing status
• How much money a person earns
• Discrimination and social support

The model takes into account clothing production and textile waste on a global scale while incorporating Vancouver's own "Fast Fashion" issue into the model.

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Brief of the model:

The model predicts the outbreak of COVID-19 in the Burnie, Tasmania area. It is imperative to clarify that this model was developed from the SEIR model (Susceptible, Infected, Infected, Recovered). The spread of this pandemic is driven by a combination of infection rates, mortality rates, and recovery rates from the virus itself, as well as government policies.

For COVID-19 itself, vaccination directly reduces the infection rate, thereby reducing the mortality rate of COVID-19 patients and the reduction of confirmed cases. In other words, if the local population is adequately vaccinated, everyday life, shopping, tourism, and even national borders will be open rather than in a closed border situation.

 

Assumption of the model:

The model simulated based on different rates, including Infecting rate, Death Rate, Test Rate, Immunity Loss Rate and Recovery Rate. And, this model lists six elements of government policy, which including border closure, travel ban, social distancing, business restriction, self-quarantine, and vaccination schedule.

Besides, the model considers three economic entities in the Burnie area, one in the brick-and-mortar industry and online business industry. Government policies have somewhat reduced COVID-19 infections. Still, they have also at the same time, online businesses played an essential role in stimulating local economic activity during the pandemic. At the same time, however, online businesses played an indispensable role in promoting regional economic activity during the pandemic.

 

The prediction model is for reference only, and there may be differences between the actual cases and the model.

 

 

Insights of the model:

Due to the high infection and low recovery rates and timely government policy interventions, the number of susceptible individuals changes dramatically in the first four weeks. However, the number of sensitive individuals continues to decline after this period, but the decline is not significant. Secondly, with the implementation of government policies, the number of suspected patients who tested negative for medical follow-up continued to rise, implying that government policy interventions directly affect COVID-19.

WIP Summary of MIchael Hudson's Book Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt destroy the Global Economy 

The model simulates how logging in with tourism(mountain biking) in Derby Tasmania.