Regulation of resource allocation to service in response to service quality. A non-price-mediated resource allocation system. From Sterman JD Business Dynamics p172 Fig 5-27
Any activity requires the use of energy. Economic activity
is not possible without energy,
especially fossil fuels. An increase in economic activity necessarily
leads to an increase in the use fossil
fuels and greenhouse gas emissions. In addition there will be a commensurate increase in waste products,
pollution and heat. This is dictated by the laws of physics and unavoidable. A problem arise when the cost of this degeneration
caused by continual economic growth surpasses the benefit society derives from it. The ecological economist Professor Herman Daly (2014) explained that
when the impact on the ecosystem is correctly measured, global growth has reached
a point where the total private and social costs of economic growth outweigh
the private and social benefits. In other words, more economic growth is making global society worse off overall - growth has become uneconomic! The model
shows that eventually pressures will build up that counteract the perennial
belief that all social ills can be solved with economic growth.
This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Bernie Sanders. The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA)
available:
http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf
This model was designed from the SIR model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19 outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.
Assumptions
The government policy is triggered when the number of infected is more than ten.
The government policies will take a negative effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.
Adjusted parameter: Immunity loss rate can be changed from vaccination rate.
Government policy's parameters
Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)
Economic's parameters
Fixed parameter: Tourism
Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)
Interesting insight
An increased vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system still needs a long time to recover in both cases.
This high-level
simulation model presented by Jay Forrester in his book World Dynamics, simulates
socio-economic-environmental world system. The world Model was created in a
time where pollution and other negative effects of industrialization and
economic growth started to become recognized in 1970. For this exam purpose, we have
rebuilt the model to do some experiments and analyze the results.
Based on Nate Osgood's April 2014 Singapore Presentation Youtube video and Lyle Wallis material Gojii at DecisioTech See also Complex Decison Technologies IM as a more polished version
Unfolding story based on Emery Roe's 2013 book Making the Most of Mess, revised in 2026. See also Dynamics in Action IM-3239 for more on behavior and The Art of the State IM-11962 for more on Grid-Group Cultural Theory
Capitalism is in crisis and climate
change disruption is now beginning to hit the bottom line. Insurance companies
know this well. According to a report by the Bank of England, insured losses
have risen from $10 000 million in 1985 to $50 000 million in 2015. Climate change
cannot be reversed, and extreme weather events
will undoubtedly get worse in the future strengthening the disruptive effects
shown in the CLD. Another dynamic is that
companies will continue to automate and, as The Economic Policy Institute has shown,
fail to reflect productivity gains in workers' salaries. The result, stagnating
salaries is disastrous for demand, given that capitalism needs endlessly rising demand
and consumption. A further serious problem is that as climate change gets worse
there will be increasing demands for companies to assume their responsibility and
bear the costs of negative externalities. The CLD shows these factors which are likely
to lead to the collapse of the system: when capitalism can no longer generate 'capital'
it has stopped to serves any useful purpose.
This model is developed to simulate how Burnie can deal with a new outbreak of COVID-19 considering health and economic outcomes. The time limit of the simulation is 100 days when a stable circumstance is reached.
Stocks
There are four stocks involved in this model. Susceptible represents the number of people that potentially could be infected. Infected refers to the number of people infected at the moment. Recovered means the number of people that has been cured, but it could turn into susceptible given a specific period of time since the immunity does not seem everlasting. Death case refers to the total number of death since the beginning of outbreak. The sum of these four stocks add up to the initial population of the town.
Variables
There are four variables in grey colour that indicate rates or factors of infection, recovery, death or economic outcomes. They usually cannot be accurately identified until it happen, therefore they can be modified by the user to adjust for a better simulation outcome.
Immunity loss rate seems to be less relevant in this case because it is usually unsure and varies for individuals, therefore it is fixed in this model.
The most interesting variable in green represents the government policy, which in this situation should be shifting the financial resources to medical resources to control infection rate, reduce death rate and increase recovery rate. It is limited from 0 to 0.8 since a government cannot shift all of the resources. Bigger scale means more resources are shifted. The change of government policy will be well reflected in the economic outcome, users are encouraged to adjust it to see the change.
The economic outcome is the variable that roughly reflects the daily income of the whole town, which cannot be accurate but it does indicate the trend.
Assumptions:
The recovery of the infected won't happen until 30 days later since it is usually a long process. And the start of death will be delayed for 14 days considering the characteristic of the virus.
Economic outcome will be affected by the number of infected since the infected cannot normally perform financial activities.
Immunity effect is fixed at 30 days after recovery.
Interesting Insights:
In this model it is not hard to find that extreme government policy does not result in the best economic outcome, but the values in-between around 0.5 seems to reach the best financial outcome while the health issues are not compromised. That is why usually the government need to balance health and economic according to the circumstance.
