Overview:
The
COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania shows the process of COVID-19 outbreak,
the impacts of government policy on both the COVID-19 outbreak and the GDP
growth in Burnie.
Assumptions:
We set some
variables at fix rates, including the immunity loss rate, recovery rate, death
rate, infection rate and case impact rate, as they usually depend on the
individual health conditions and social activities.
It should
be noticed that we set the rate of recovery, which is 0.7, is higher than that
of immunity loss rate, which is 0.5, so, the number of susceptible could be reduced
over time.
Adjustments: (please compare the numbers at week
52)
Step 1: Set all the variables at minimum
values and simulate
results: Number of Infected – 135; Recovered
– 218; Cases – 597; Death – 18,175; GDP – 10,879.
Step 2: Increase the variables of Health
Policy, Quarantine, and Travel Restriction to 0.03, others keep the
same as step 1, and simulate
results: Number of Infected – 166 (up); Recovered
– 249 (up); Cases – 554 (down); Death – 18,077 (down); GDP – 824 (down).
So, the
increase of health policy, quarantine and travel restriction will help increase
recovery, decrease confirmed cases, decrease death, but also decrease GDP.
Step 3: Increase the variables of Testing
Rate to 0.4, others keep the same as step 2, and simulate
results: Number of Infected – 152 (down); Recovered
– 243 (down); Cases – 1022 (up); Death – 17,625 (down); GDP – 824 (same).
So, the
increase of testing rate will help to increase the confirmed cases.
Step 4: Change GDP Growth Rate to 0.14,
Tourism Growth Rate to 0.02, others keep the same as step 3, and simulate
results: Number of Infected – 152 (same); Recovered
– 243 (same); Cases – 1022 (same); Death – 17,625 (same); GDP – 6,632 (up).
So, the
increase of GDP growth rate and tourism growth rate will helps to improve the
GDP in Burnie.
