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BMA708_Assignment 3_Xiaoya Zuo

3

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Scott Walker based on the information at: https://www.scottwalker.com/news/why-i%E2%80%99m-running-president The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

DRAFT IPA of Scott Walker Economic Policy

Steve Wallis

No economy can function well without adequate funding and in the absence of finance will eventually fall into recession. Funds (financial assets in the model) are primarily injected through investments. This is certainly true for investments and payments undertaken by the government but also for private investments via bank loans. Net exports (i.e.trade surpluses) also represent an injecton of financial assets into the economy. By contrast financial assets are taken out of the economy through taxation, the repayment of bank loans and the running of a negative trade balance. Also, if the population in aggregate decides to save more this has the effect as if money were taken out of the economy. I have deliberately avoided specifying where the funds for treasury payments and public investments come from, as this is controversial. Modern Monetary Theory, for instance, says that these funds are not provided through tax revenue. Austerity can be seen as a process that deliberately diminishes or takes out financial assets from the economy through taxation, restrictions on bank loans or cutbacks in payments and public spending by the government. It is probably useful to look at insights 2740 and 2741 before examining this CLD because they provide the context and purpose for net public spending and investment.

Investment and Economic Activity

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Lindsey Graham's economic policy based on the information at: http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/restore-fiscal-discipline/ http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/ease-tax-and-regulatory-burdens/ http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/achieve-energy-independence/ http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/reform-entitlements/ The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

DRAFT IPA of Lindsey Graham Economic Policy

Steve Wallis

The simulation integrates or sums (INTEG) the Nj population, with a change of Delta N in each generation, starting with an initial value of 5.

The equation for DeltaN is a version of

Nj+1 = Nj + mu (1- Nj / Nmax ) Nj

the maximum population is set to be one million, and the growth rate constant mu = 3.

Nj: is the “number of items” in our current generation.

Delta Nj: is the “change in number of items” as we go from the present generation into the next generation. This is just the number of items born minus the number of items who have died.

mu: is the growth or birth rate parameter, similar to that in the exponential growth and decay model. However, as we extend our model it will no longer be the actual growth rate, but rather just a constant that tends to control the actual growth rate without being directly proportional to it.

F(Nj) = mu(1‐Nj/Nmax): is our model for the effective “growth rate”, a rate that decreases as the number of items approaches the maximum allowed by external factors such as food supply, disease or predation. (You can think of mu as the growth or birth rate in the absence of population pressure from other items.) We write this rate as F(Nj), which is a mathematical way of saying F is affected by the number of items, i.e., “F is a function of Nj”. It combines both growth and all the various environmental constraints on growth into a single function. This is a good approach to modeling; start with something that works (exponential growth) and then modify it incrementally, while still incorporating the working model.

Nj+1 = Nj + Delta Nj : This is a mathematical way to say, “The new number of items equals the old number of items plus the change in number of items”.

Nj/Nmax: is what fraction a population has reached of the maximum "carrying capacity" allowed by the external environment. We use this fraction to change the overall growth rate of the population. In the real world, as well as in our model, it is possible for a population to be greater than the maximum population (which is usually an average of many years), at least for a short period of time. This means that we can expect fluctuations in which Nj/Nmax is greater than 1.

This equation is a form of what is known as the logistic map or equation. It is a map because it "maps'' the population in one year into the population of the next year. It is "logistic'' in the military sense of supplying a population with its needs. It a nonlinear equation because it contains a term proportional to Nj^2 and not just Nj. The logistic map equation is also an example of discrete mathematics. It is discrete because the time variable j assumes just integer values, and consequently the variables Nj+1 and Nj do not change continuously into each other, as would a function N(t). In addition to the variables Nj and j, the equation also contains the two parameters mu, the growth rate, and Nmax, the maximum population. You can think of these as "constants'' whose values are determined from external sources and remain fixed as one year of items gets mapped into the next year. However, as part of viewing the computer as a laboratory in which to experiment, and as part of the scientific process, you should vary the parameters in order to explore how the model reacts to changes in them.

POPULATION LOGISTIC MAP (WITH FEEDBACK)

Guy Lakeman

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Economics_Semkina

Vlada Semkina

This is a reconstruction of the SIMM model presented in Chapter 2 of Feedback Economics (Contemporary Systems Thinking)

@LinkedIn, Twitter, YouTube

Clone of Simple Macroeconomic Model (SIMM) (SFD)

Aykut Kibritçioğlu

The causes of homelessness is illustrated in this causal loop diagram

Homelessness problem

Fred Nel

Map of Geoffrey M Hodgson's 2015 Conceptualizing Capitalism book summary pdf with other ideologies added sept 2021 from new politics website

Clone of Capitalism and Ideologies

Joo Hee Lee

System Zoo Z409 Fishery dynamics from Hartmut Bossel (2007) System Zoo 2 Simulation Models. Climate, Ecosystems, Resources

Fishing is a classic example for use of a renewable resource. Unless overfished, fish populations If is hardly by fishing, then the fish population will persist at a constant size corresponding to its specific ecological envi ronment If the stock is overfished, the juvenile generation becomes too small to fully replace the adult generation. If overfishing continues. the population cannot recover and will collapse in short time. Even if fish catch stops now/, it could take decades until the fish population recovers to its original size if it hasn't become extinct meanwhile. In many of the world overtlshing has led, and still leads, to the complete collapse of formerly huge tlsh populations: herring in the North Sea, codtlsh in the Northern Atlantic. tuna, whales to name only a few. With the collapse of fish stocks came the collapse of the t1shing industry in many regions. Employment and

incomes disappeared: whole regions (like Newfoundland) lost their economic base.

REM 221 - Z409 Fishery dynamics

Steve Conrad

29

WIP Summary of Mariana Mazzucato's 2018 book See also IM-901 MacroEc

The Value of Everything

Geoff McDonnell

This Insight Maker model illustrates the complex relationships involved in the destruction of rainforests. The reinforcing loop emphasizes the destructive cycle where economic development leads to increased deforestation, while the balancing loop highlights the negative consequences on biodiversity, climate, and economic activities, attempting to counteract the destructive forces. The model serves as a simplified representation to better understand the interconnected factors contributing to rainforest destruction and the importance of considering feedback loops in addressing environmental issues.

Destruction of Rainforests

Sujhanan

Model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

This model was designed from SIR model(susceptible, infected, revovered) to find out the effect of covid-19 outbreak into economic outcomes via government policy.

Assumptions

The government policy is triggered when number of infected is more than ten.

The government policies will take negative effect into Covid-19 outbreaks and financial system

Parameters

We set some fixed and adjusted variables.

Covid-19 outbreak's parameter

Fixed parameters: Infection rate, Background disease, recovery rate.

Adjusted parameter: Immunity loss rate can be change from vaccination rate.

Government policy's parameters

Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)

Economic's parameters

Fixed parameter: Tourism

Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)

Interesting insight

Increase vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number amount of infected case and a little bit more negative effect to economic system. However economic system still need a long time to recover in both cases.

BMA708_Assignment 3_ndkvo_520272_COVID-19 outbreak and Burnie economy

KV

Economic model

Tiziana Lembo

Laying out and testing before coupling to main model (which is Final Project)

Socio-Economic Factors

Geoffrey Alan Chapman

This insight includes a Limits to Success archetype. (Bubbles colored with a darker blue)

Economical Factor

Bruce Ree

My InsightPublic Opinion Toward Immigration Reform: The Role of Economic Motivations

Luca Makarushka-Napp

See extension Goodwin02 at IM-172145

Clone of Goodwin Minsky Simulation Keen Economic Dynamics Aug2019

Victor Hernandez

241004_economic growth model structure_SFD

JF

The simulation model estimates the values of each particular NRI indicator for the Republic of Macedonia needed to reach another country's overall NRI score (e.g. that one of Ireland). The work is a complementary part of the research paper entitled "System dynamics approach for the economic impacts of ICTs: evidence from Macedonia", submitted for publication in Information Development, a SAGE journal.

NRI simulation

Ilija Hristoski

ISCI 360 Project - Stage 2

Our model examines the relationship between two straw types (plastic straws and biodegradable straws) and their impact on the environment and economics. Specifically, we are interested in figuring out whether biodegradable straws are a viable solution to plastic straws.

Our model is broken down into three aspects: Social, Environmental and Economic. Color coding is used to differentiate between the different aspects and is explained below:

Turquoise represents the social aspect.

Purple represents the economic aspects.

Green represents the environmental aspects.

Blue represents other crucial stocks and flows in the model that do not necessarily fit into the three aspects above.

In our model, the Canadian population is assumed to increase steadily until a carrying capacity is reached. This can be seen in the graph as the line increases linearly before plateauing indefinitely. We assumed that we will be able to maintain the population at our carrying capacity due to technological advances.

Social Aspect:

The social aspect refers to the impact that awareness of the detrimental costs of straws can have on the usage of straws. The two flows that contribute to awareness are word of mouth (i.e. your friends and family informing you about the effects of straws and influencing you to stop using them) and media coverage (i.e. the media highlights the effects of straws). Both of these flows are dependent on the Canadian population such that 25% of the Canadian population at any time will be impacted by word of mouth or media coverage. (Side note: since word of mouth and media coverage are dependent on the Canadian population, they will plateau when the population does.) This is an arbitrary number but was chosen to show what a change in perspectives of the Canadian population can do. These flows input into an 'awareness of detrimental effects of using plastic straws' stock that reduces the number of plastic straws being used.

Plastic Straws

According to data from the United States individuals usually use 1.6 straws everyday and thus, we have assumed that to be true in Canada as well. Plastic straws start at a base value (due to the previous straw usage) and grow with the Canadian population while subtracting the awareness component of the model.

Environmental Aspect

Since the decomposition of plastic versus paper is significantly different, the amounts that accumulate in the ocean and landfills can be monitored. In addition, the impact on the environment can be monitored. Since plastic straws take longer to decompose, they have a larger impact on wildlife in the ocean than biodegradable straws. Thus, as the plastic straw usage decreases, the amount of habitat loss occurring plateaus. We have also included the aspect of clean-up in which the plastic from the ocean can be moved to the landfill. You will notice that the habitat loss plateaus but does not decrease. This is because we cannot reverse the damage we have done (without additional rigorous clean-up) but can mitigate additional damage. (Please note that clean-up affects only the stock 'Plastic Straws in the ocean' and thus, does not affect the stock 'habitat loss.' Therefore, clean-up will reduce the number of plastic straws in the ocean and indirectly affect the stock 'habitat loss.' However, it will not clean up the plastic straws already impacting 'habitat loss.')

Economic Aspect

The economic aspect monitors the amount of money it takes to make plastic straws versus biodegradable straws and the amount of money the government needs to fund ocean clean-ups. It can be seen that a the usage of plastic straws decreases, the need for clean-up money from the government decreases. However, there is a base level of damage that has already been done by us and thus, larger scale clean-ups will be needed to reverse that. In other words, smaller clean-ups will mitigate the damage we are currently doing but not reverse the damage we have already done. We can also track the cost of making each straw; it can be seen that biodegradable straws are more expensive to make.

However, the energy required to make the straws is less for biodegradable straws than plastic straws. Thus, there are trade-offs for using biodegradable straws.

Although, biodegradable straws are more expensive, they require less energy to make, decompose faster, require less funding for clean-up and impact the wildlife in the ocean to a lesser degree.

Project Stage 2

Eisha Sharda

Kelly betting

Karoly

2 months ago

Cornerstore Economic Model

Michelle Molskow

AT-3

Xuanze Liang

4