WIP Overview model structures of Khalid Saeed's 2014 WPI paper Jay
Forrester’s Disruptive Models of Economic Behavior See also General SD and Macroeconomics CLDs IM-168865
Clone of Jay Forrester's Disruptive Economic Models
The model takes into account clothing production and textile waste on a global scale while incorporating Vancouver's own "Fast Fashion" issue into the model.
Please refer to the notes for each variable and stock to see which links were hidden from the model.
- Price increasing dramatically, surpasses average detached home price of 3 million in 3 years if left unaddressed
- Housing Demand by potential buyer population will increase due to unmet financial means (Interest rate and price too high). To secure housing, the outflow is linked to price that is affected by supply and demand.
- Total occupied homes will decrease as empty homes purchased by foreign investors for "house flipping" increase and doubles within 5 years.
DEMAND:
- Demand for housing in Vancouver will increase, but the amount of people motivated to buy with financial means "buyer population", will decrease in correlation.
SUPPLY:
- Prices do not follow traditional supply and demand concepts. Supply of houses on the market is increasing but, as shown, unable to sell because of unaffordability.
SYSTEMS MODEL LOGISTICS:
- Split into demand and supply with interlinked links
- Supply is a feedback system with sold houses branching off into empty housing or occupied housing
- All flows and stocks are linked with the intention that as market price changes, so will various system dynamics
- Used various functions to simulate a more diverse and accurate system
Sustainability: Economic (prices, housing market), Social (motivation to buy and sell)
OVERSHOOT GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION
The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed
The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks
See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)
The model shows Covid-19 situations in Burnie, Tasmania. Under such circumstances, how the state government deals with the pandemic and how economy changes will be illustrated. The relationship between government policy and economic activities under Covid-19 outbreaks will be explained through different variables.
Assumptions
Government policy negatively affects Covid-19 outbreaks and economic activities.
Covid-19 outbreaks also has negative effects on economic growth.
Parameters
There are several fixed and adjusted variables.
1. COVID-19 Outbreaks
Fixed variables: infection rate, recovery rate
Adjusted variables: immunity loss rate
2. Government Policy
Adjusted variables: lockdown, social distancing, testing, vaccination
3. Economic impact
Fixed variables: tourism
Adjusted variables: economic growth rate
Interesting Insights
Tourism seems to be the most effective way to bring back economic growth in Tasmania, and it takes time to recover from Covid-19.
Government policies tend to have negative influences on economic growth.
The model here shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie Tasmania, which has impacted in the local economy. the relationship between COVID-19 and economic situation has been shown in the graph. Based on the susceptible and exposed rate, the period of spreading can be controlled by lockdown policy.
Susceptible can be exposed by go out. resident has a possibility to infect and be infected by others. The infection rate, new cases, immunity rate as well as doing exercise can effect the recovery rate. The economy situation is proportionate to the recovery rate. If there are more recovery rate from the pandemic, the economy situation will recover as well.
This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Jim Gilmore's
economic policy based on the information at: http://www.gilmoreforamerica.com/jims-growth-code/ The method used is Integrative
Propositional Analysis (IPA)
available:
http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf
