Population model where the population is summarized in four age groups (children, parents, older people, old people). Used as a base population model for dealing with issues such as employment, care for the elderly, pensions dynamics, etc.
[WIP] Z602 Population with four age groups, Czech Republic
Causal loop diagram summary of Fadhel Kaboub's Global South substack post Sri
Lanka's 17th IMF Debt Trap based on my Gemini interaction using Gene Bellinger's AI prompts
WIP Overview model structures of Khalid Saeed's 2014 WPI paper Jay
Forrester’s Disruptive Models of Economic Behavior See also General SD and Macroeconomics CLDs IM-168865
Clone of Jay Forrester's Disruptive Economic Models
The model shows Covid-19 situations in Burnie, Tasmania. Under such circumstances, how the state government deals with the pandemic and how economy changes will be illustrated. The relationship between government policy and economic activities under Covid-19 outbreaks will be explained through different variables.
Assumptions
Government policy negatively affects Covid-19 outbreaks and economic activities.
Covid-19 outbreaks also has negative effects on economic growth.
Parameters
There are several fixed and adjusted variables.
1. COVID-19 Outbreaks
Fixed variables: infection rate, recovery rate
Adjusted variables: immunity loss rate
2. Government Policy
Adjusted variables: lockdown, social distancing, testing, vaccination
3. Economic impact
Fixed variables: tourism
Adjusted variables: economic growth rate
Interesting Insights
Tourism seems to be the most effective way to bring back economic growth in Tasmania, and it takes time to recover from Covid-19.
Government policies tend to have negative influences on economic growth.
The model takes into account clothing production and textile waste on a global scale while incorporating Vancouver's own "Fast Fashion" issue into the model.
Please refer to the notes for each variable and stock to see which links were hidden from the model.
OVERSHOOT GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION
The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed
The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks
See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)
The model here shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie Tasmania, which has impacted in the local economy. the relationship between COVID-19 and economic situation has been shown in the graph. Based on the susceptible and exposed rate, the period of spreading can be controlled by lockdown policy.
Susceptible can be exposed by go out. resident has a possibility to infect and be infected by others. The infection rate, new cases, immunity rate as well as doing exercise can effect the recovery rate. The economy situation is proportionate to the recovery rate. If there are more recovery rate from the pandemic, the economy situation will recover as well.
WIP Social determinants of health from Michael Marmot's ABC 2016 Boyer Lectures on Social Justice and the Health Gap See US Data website for data and AIHW website for concepts. See also IM-83417 Marmot Essay 2017
