BCTD Models

These models and simulations have been tagged “BCTD”.

Related tagsUdemyCIwIMSwIM

Insight diagram
All you wanted to do was put a bird feeder in your yard to attract birds and make for a more pleasant morning. And...
Clone of Bird Feeder Dilemma
Insight diagram

This model is derived from the paper "Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that Never Happened: Creating and Sustaining Process Improvement" by Nelson P. Repenning and John D Sterman. See Insight 752 for a causal loop version of this model.

Clone of Credit Never Happened Simulation lessions
Insight diagram
The interaction of a population of Moose and Wolves.

Video

The Essence of And?

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Clone of Moose and Wolves
Insight diagram
Balancing Loop with Stock & Flow Diagram.
Clone of Balancing Loop with Delay
Insight diagram
What do activities of these images have in common?
Clone of Essence Property # 3
Insight diagram

This common archetype of systems that include relapse or recidivism allows exploration of the unintended effects of increasing upstream capacity and swamping downstream capacity. The increase in the relapse rate eventually returns to swamp upstream capacity as well. A social welfare example, based on a TANF case study, from How Small System Dynamics Models Can Help the Policy Process. N. Ghaffarzadegan, J. Lyneis, GP Richardson. System Dynamics Review 27,1 (2011) 22-44 Conference version at http://bit.ly/HlxtZj

Clone of Swamping Insight
Insight diagram
While these pictures represent very different things there is a common essence.
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Clone of Essence Property # 1
Insight diagram
While these pictures represent very different things there is a common essence.
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Clone of Essence Property # 1
Insight diagram
What do activities of these images have in common?
Clone of Essence Property # 3
Insight diagram
While these pictures represent very different things there is a common essence.
Clone of Essence Property # 1
Insight diagram
Consider the following "Sustaining the Forest" model intended to provide another example of how unexpected the behavior of a web of extended interactions can be.

Video

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Clone of Sustaining the Forest
Insight diagram

To develop insights regarding a situation of interest there are a number of things should be considered to ensure a view of the relevant influences.

Clone of Systemic Strategy
Insight diagram
While these pictures represent very different things there is a common essence.
Clone of Essence Property # 1
Insight diagram
Yesterday's actions are responsible for the world we experience today. And today's actions are responsible for the world that we will experience tomorrow. The "Creating the Future" model is intended to provide a better sense of the common process associated with the unexpected unfolding of the future..

Video

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Clone of Creating the Future
Insight diagram

This model is derived from the paper "Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that Never Happened: Creating and Sustaining Process Improvement" by Nelson P. Repenning and John D Sterman. See Insight 1899 for a simulation of this model and SysNet for a Video.

Clone of Credit Never Happened Relations
Insight diagram
The model construction process is actually a balancing loop which endeavors to employ an abstract version of real events to form a model which produces conclusions and behavior which mimic the real events.
Clone of Model Construction Process
Insight diagram
The model starts in 1900. In the year 2000 you get the chance to set a new emission target and nominal time to reach it. Your aim is to have atmospheric CO2 stabilize at about 400 ppmv in 2100.  From Sterman, John D. (2008)  Risk Communication on Climate:  Mental Models and Mass Balance.  Science 322 (24 October): 532-533.
Clone of Climate Stabilization Task
Insight diagram
All the following have a common characteristic.
Clone of Essence Property # 2
Insight diagram
Consider the following "Sustaining the Forest" model intended to provide another example of how unexpected the behavior of a web of extended interactions can be.

Video

The Essence of And?

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Clone of Sustaining the Forest
Insight diagram
All the following have a common characteristic.
Clone of Essence Property # 2
Insight diagram
The interaction of a population of Moose and Wolves.

Video

The Essence of And?

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Clone of Moose and Wolves
Insight diagram
All the following have a common characteristic.
Clone of Essence Property # 2
Insight diagram
Consider the following "Sustaining the Forest" model intended to provide another example of how unexpected the behavior of a web of extended interactions can be.

Video

The Essence of And?

FacebookLinkedInTwitterYouTube

Clone of Sustaining the Forest
Insight diagram
Consider the following "Sustaining the Forest" model intended to provide another example of how unexpected the behavior of a web of extended interactions can be.

Video

The Essence of And?

FacebookLinkedInTwitterYouTube

Clone of Sustaining the Forest