BCTD Models

These models and simulations have been tagged “BCTD”.

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While these pictures represent very different things there is a common essence. @ LinkedIn ,  Twitter ,  YouTube
While these pictures represent very different things there is a common essence.
What do activities of these images have in common?
What do activities of these images have in common?
While these pictures represent very different things there is a common essence.
While these pictures represent very different things there is a common essence.
While these pictures represent very different things there is a common essence. @ LinkedIn ,  Twitter ,  YouTube
While these pictures represent very different things there is a common essence.
The model construction process is actually a balancing loop which endeavors to employ an abstract version of real events to form a model which produces conclusions and behavior which mimic the real events.
The model construction process is actually a balancing loop which endeavors to employ an abstract version of real events to form a model which produces conclusions and behavior which mimic the real events.
 To develop insights regarding a situation of interest there are a number of things should be considered to ensure a view of the relevant influences.

To develop insights regarding a situation of interest there are a number of things should be considered to ensure a view of the relevant influences.

 This common archetype of systems that include relapse or recidivism allows exploration of the unintended effects of increasing upstream capacity and swamping downstream capacity. The increase in the relapse rate eventually returns to swamp upstream capacity as well. A social welfare example, based

This common archetype of systems that include relapse or recidivism allows exploration of the unintended effects of increasing upstream capacity and swamping downstream capacity. The increase in the relapse rate eventually returns to swamp upstream capacity as well. A social welfare example, based on a TANF case study, from How Small System Dynamics Models Can Help the Policy Process. N. Ghaffarzadegan, J. Lyneis, GP Richardson. System Dynamics Review 27,1 (2011) 22-44 Conference version at http://bit.ly/HlxtZj

 This model is derived from the paper " Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that Never Happened: Creating and Sustaining Process Improvement " by Nelson P. Repenning and John D Sterman. See  Insight 1899  for a simulation of this model and  SysNet  for a Video.

This model is derived from the paper "Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that Never Happened: Creating and Sustaining Process Improvement" by Nelson P. Repenning and John D Sterman. See Insight 1899 for a simulation of this model and SysNet for a Video.

All the following have a common characteristic.
All the following have a common characteristic.
Consider the following "Sustaining the Forest" model intended to provide another example of how unexpected the behavior of a web of extended interactions can be.   Video    The Essence of And?    Facebook ,  LinkedIn ,  Twitter ,  YouTube
Consider the following "Sustaining the Forest" model intended to provide another example of how unexpected the behavior of a web of extended interactions can be.
While these pictures represent very different things there is a common essence.
While these pictures represent very different things there is a common essence.
Consider the following "Sustaining the Forest" model intended to provide another example of how unexpected the behavior of a web of extended interactions can be.   Video    The Essence of And?    Facebook ,  LinkedIn ,  Twitter ,  YouTube
Consider the following "Sustaining the Forest" model intended to provide another example of how unexpected the behavior of a web of extended interactions can be.
While these pictures represent very different things there is a common essence.
While these pictures represent very different things there is a common essence.
All the following have a common characteristic.
All the following have a common characteristic.
 The model starts in 1900. In the year 2000 you get the chance to set a new emission target and nominal time to reach it. Your aim is to have atmospheric CO2 stabilize at about 400 ppmv in 2100.  From Sterman, John D. (2008)   Risk Communication on Climate:  Mental Models and Mass Balance .  Science
The model starts in 1900. In the year 2000 you get the chance to set a new emission target and nominal time to reach it. Your aim is to have atmospheric CO2 stabilize at about 400 ppmv in 2100.  From Sterman, John D. (2008)  Risk Communication on Climate:  Mental Models and Mass Balance.  Science 322 (24 October): 532-533.
All the following have a common characteristic.
All the following have a common characteristic.
The structure responsible for rabbit population growth.
The structure responsible for rabbit population growth.
Consider the following "Sustaining the Forest" model intended to provide another example of how unexpected the behavior of a web of extended interactions can be.   Video    The Essence of And?    Facebook ,  LinkedIn ,  Twitter ,  YouTube
Consider the following "Sustaining the Forest" model intended to provide another example of how unexpected the behavior of a web of extended interactions can be.