A very simple thermodynamic model of a planet, based on first order approximations of its (black body) radiation balance.

The fact that we all strive to reduce psychologically inconsistent thoughts  is a well-researched phenomenon. When we hold two conflicting thoughts in our heads we feel an overwhelming desire to reduce this conflict. This desire can be a powerful driver in the way we behave. Most of us are aware at some level that if we took the threat of climate change seriously we would need to completely change our routines and the way we behave. Flying off on holiday would be out of the question. Swimming pools would be a past luxury. Most of us would need to give up our cars and become vegetarians. The list can be extended almost endlessly. Very often, subconsciously, we try to reduce troubling and inconvenient facts by minimizing, ignoring or even by denying them. Could this be why we hardly talk about climate change even in the face of increasingly frequent extreme weather events and obvious signs that it is occurring now?

This subject needs to be openly talked about between us and in the press. The seriousness of global warming makes it a necessity.  Only when this happens will politicians have the space and incentive to act on our behalf. But before this can happen we need to be aware of the reason why we avoid talking about this subject – this graph tries to illustrate the harmful dynamic that could be responsible for it.

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Narrative influence model sketching influence links in energy-economy-emissions

DRAFT conceptual model of climate change connections in Yamuna river project.

Social movements have a major role to play in forcing politicians to act on climate change. This opinion has been clearly expressed by Pope Francis in his encyclical on climate change and, amongst others, also by Naomi Klein in her book 'This changes Everything'. The CLD suggests the need to strengthen the reinforcing loops R1 and R2 representing the activities of  environmental movements and also to disrupt the reinforcing loop R3 representing climate change  deniers. The most effective way in my opinion  to strengthen R1 and R2 is to weaken R3. This could be done by countering false arguments by pointing out on all occasions that the debate on climate change is over: climate scientists, by an overwhelming consensus, have established that anthropogenic global warming is a scientific fact. It could also be done by educating the public. The urgency of the situation suggests that the most effective way of doing this could be by closing negative feedback loops, for example, by linking extreme weather events, supported by graphic images, to global warming. Global warming can also be linked to inequality, poverty, larger forest fires,  coral reef bleaching, etc. The Pope has started the work by establishing these links in his encyclical. Of course, these are merely suggestions. Looking at the CLD carefully might well reveal other effective points of intervention

DRAFT conceptual model of climate change connections in Yamuna river project.

The 3-machines energy transition model is a global system dynamics model based on energy balances,  and used to explore the energy frontiers for stabilizing the Earth's climate. The model comprises a hypothetical fossil engine, a solar engine including energy storage, and a carbon scrubber. These machines interact with Earth's carbon cycle and satisfy humanity’s energy demand. A detailed description can be accessed here: https://osf.io/fcwt8/

DRAFT conceptual model of climate change connections in Yamuna river project.

DRAFT conceptual model of climate change connections in Yamuna river project.

Market-led Sustainability is  a 'Fix-that-Fails'. It is illustraited in this graph in a very simplified manner. Likely market-led initiatives would be: investment in renewables, electric cars and the development of long-term battery storage as a back-up means to renewable energy. However, all of these lead to undesirable consequences that involve environmental and economic costs that will finally make the whole enterprise fail.

Social movements have a major role to play in forcing politicians to act on climate change. This opinion has been clearly expressed by Pope Francis in his encyclical on climate change and, amongst others, also by Naomi Klein in her book 'This changes Everything'. The CLD suggests the need to strengthen the reinforcing loops R1 and R2 representing the activities of  environmental movements and also to disrupt the reinforcing loop R3 representing climate change  deniers. The most effective way in my opinion  to strengthen R1 and R2 is to weaken R3. This could be done by countering false arguments by pointing out on all occasions that the debate on climate change is over: climate scientists, by an overwhelming consensus, have established that anthropogenic global warming is a scientific fact. It could also be done by educating the public. The urgency of the situation suggests that the most effective way of doing this could be by closing negative feedback loops, for example, by linking extreme weather events, supported by graphic images, to global warming. Global warming can also be linked to inequality, poverty, larger forest fires,  coral reef bleaching, etc. The Pope has started the work by establishing these links in his encyclical. Of course, these are merely suggestions. Looking at the CLD carefully might well reveal other effective points of intervention

DRAFT conceptual model of climate change connections in Yamuna river project.

DRAFT conceptual model of climate change connections in Yamuna river project.

The fact that we all strive to reduce psychologically inconsistent thoughts  is a well-researched phenomenon. When we hold two conflicting thoughts in our heads we feel an overwhelming desire to reduce this conflict. This desire can be a powerful driver in the way we behave. Most of us are aware at some level that if we took the threat of climate change seriously we would need to completely change our routines and the way we behave. Flying off on holiday would be out of the question. Swimming pools would be a past luxury. Most of us would need to give up our cars and become vegetarians. The list can be extended almost endlessly. Very often, subconsciously, we try to reduce troubling and inconvenient facts by minimizing, ignoring or even by denying them. Could this be why we hardly talk about climate change even in the face of increasingly frequent extreme weather events and obvious signs that it is occurring now?

This subject needs to be openly talked about between us and in the press. The seriousness of global warming makes it a necessity.  Only when this happens will politicians have the space and incentive to act on our behalf. But before this can happen we need to be aware of the reason why we avoid talking about this subject – this graph tries to illustrate the harmful dynamic that could be responsible for it.

​

DRAFT conceptual model of climate change connections in Yamuna river project.