WIP Cloned from WIP Africa Just Transition insight including (Fig 3.1 from Jorgen Randers book 2052 a Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years) with Fadhel Kaboub MMT Perspective to continue top down work on my slides of clds and macroeconomics

There is now substantial evidence that three unstoppable reinforcing feedback systems that can only accelerate global warming have been triggered in the Arctic. R2 illustrates a process whereby frozen methane hydrate,  which exists in enormous quantities on the seabed of the shallow Arctic Ocean shelf, is breaking up as the ocean warms. This leads to methane gas, a greenhouse gas about 20 times more powerful than C02, bubbling up to the surface. R1 shows that as the ice cover of the ocean melts and shrinks, less sunlight is reflected back into space and more is absorbed by  the ocean, warming it as a consequence. The warmer ocean water and warmer air temperature will then melt more ice, but it will also break up more methane hydrates.   R3 describes a similar process where melting permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere, making the situation even worse. These processes are multiplicative, they reinforce each other.  Below are links to three articles that provide  evidence that this is going on now. Systems thinking tells us about reinforcing feedback loops and the associated exponential growth. Taking this and the evidence provided by the articles into account the conclusion clearly points to increasing and accelerated global warming. The recent Paris agreement on global warming may have come too late!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/aug/11/science.climatechange1

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23205-major-methane-release-is-almost-inevitable/

There is now substantial evidence that three unstoppable reinforcing feedback systems that can only accelerate global warming have been triggered in the Arctic. R2 illustrates a process whereby frozen methane hydrate,  which exists in enormous quantities on the seabed of the shallow Arctic Ocean shelf, is breaking up as the ocean warms. This leads to methane gas, a greenhouse gas about 20 times more powerful than C02, bubbling up to the surface. R1 shows that as the ice cover of the ocean melts and shrinks, less sunlight is reflected back into space and more is absorbed by  the ocean, warming it as a consequence. The warmer ocean water and warmer air temperature will then melt more ice, but it will also break up more methane hydrates.   R3 describes a similar process where melting permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere, making the situation even worse. These processes are multiplicative, they reinforce each other.  Below are links to three articles that provide  evidence that this is going on now. Systems thinking tells us about reinforcing feedback loops and the associated exponential growth. Taking this and the evidence provided by the articles into account the conclusion clearly points to increasing and accelerated global warming. The recent Paris agreement on global warming may have come too late!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/aug/11/science.climatechange1

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23205-major-methane-release-is-almost-inevitable/

There is now substantial evidence that three unstoppable reinforcing feedback systems that can only accelerate global warming have been triggered in the Arctic. R2 illustrates a process whereby frozen methane hydrate,  which exists in enormous quantities on the seabed of the shallow Arctic Ocean shelf, is breaking up as the ocean warms. This leads to methane gas, a greenhouse gas about 20 times more powerful than C02, bubbling up to the surface. R1 shows that as the ice cover of the ocean melts and shrinks, less sunlight is reflected back into space and more is absorbed by  the ocean, warming it as a consequence. The warmer ocean water and warmer air temperature will then melt more ice, but it will also break up more methane hydrates.   R3 describes a similar process where melting permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere, making the situation even worse. These processes are multiplicative, they reinforce each other.  Below are links to three articles that provide  evidence that this is going on now. Systems thinking tells us about reinforcing feedback loops and the associated exponential growth. Taking this and the evidence provided by the articles into account the conclusion clearly points to increasing and accelerated global warming. The recent Paris agreement on global warming may have come too late!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/aug/11/science.climatechange1

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23205-major-methane-release-is-almost-inevitable/

Social movements have a major role to play in forcing politicians to act on climate change. This opinion has been clearly expressed by Pope Francis in his encyclical on climate change and, amongst others, also by Naomi Klein in her book 'This changes Everything'. The CLD suggests the need to strengthen the reinforcing loops R1 and R2 representing the activities of  environmental movements and also to disrupt the reinforcing loop R3 representing climate change  deniers. The most effective way in my opinion  to strengthen R1 and R2 is to weaken R3. This could be done by countering false arguments by pointing out on all occasions that the debate on climate change is over: climate scientists, by an overwhelming consensus, have established that anthropogenic global warming is a scientific fact. It could also be done by educating the public. The urgency of the situation suggests that the most effective way of doing this could be by closing negative feedback loops, for example, by linking extreme weather events, supported by graphic images, to global warming. Global warming can also be linked to inequality, poverty, larger forest fires,  coral reef bleaching, etc. The Pope has started the work by establishing these links in his encyclical. Of course, these are merely suggestions. Looking at the CLD carefully might well reveal other effective points of intervention

The modle basically describes the cycle of CO2 into and out of the atmosphere.

To maintain economic wealth (roads, hospitals, power lines, etc.) power needs to be consumed. The same applies to economic activity, since any activity requires the consumption of energy. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the burning of fossil fuels was responsible for 79 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2010. So whilst economic activity takes place fossil fuels will be burned and CO2 emissions are unavoidable - unless we use exclusively renewable energy resources, which is not likely to occur very soon. However, the increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will have negative consequences, such droughts, floods, crop failures, etc. These effects represent limits to economic growth. The CLD illustrates some of the more prominent negative feedback loops that act as a break on economic growth and wealth.  As the negative feedback loops (B1-B4) get stronger, an interesting question is, 'will a sharp reduction in economic wealth and unavoidable recession lead to wide-spread food riots and disturbances?'

Social movements have a major role to play in forcing politicians to act on climate change. This opinion has been clearly expressed by Pope Francis in his encyclical on climate change and, amongst others, also by Naomi Klein in her book 'This changes Everything'. The CLD suggests the need to strengthen the reinforcing loops R1 and R2 representing the activities of  environmental movements and also to disrupt the reinforcing loop R3 representing climate change  deniers. The most effective way in my opinion  to strengthen R1 and R2 is to weaken R3. This could be done by countering false arguments by pointing out on all occasions that the debate on climate change is over: climate scientists, by an overwhelming consensus, have established that anthropogenic global warming is a scientific fact. It could also be done by educating the public. The urgency of the situation suggests that the most effective way of doing this could be by closing negative feedback loops, for example, by linking extreme weather events, supported by graphic images, to global warming. Global warming can also be linked to inequality, poverty, larger forest fires,  coral reef bleaching, etc. The Pope has started the work by establishing these links in his encyclical. Of course, these are merely suggestions. Looking at the CLD carefully might well reveal other effective points of intervention

WIP Cloned insight (Fig 3.1 from Jorgen Randers book 2052 a Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years) with Fidel Kaboub MMT Prespective CLD kumu added ALso AI based work at Gene's brain link  and Colonial origins (Why Nations Fail Critique paper (also via brain link) Continued top down integration at insight

The modle basically describes the cycle of CO2 into and out of the atmosphere.

Didactic model simulating the annual variation of the Earth's mean temperature based on CO₂ concentration, climate feedbacks (water vapor and greenhouse effect), the planet's thermal capacity, and empirical data from NOAA and NASA GISS. It allows exploration of how different factors contribute to climate change and facilitates understanding of the relationship between radiative forcings and the global thermal response.

Fig 3.1 from Jorgen Randers book 2052 a Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years