HANDY Model of Societal Collapse from Ecological Economics Paper 

Primitive Legend:

Grocery Store Inventory is a stock that represents the amount of perishable food units available for sale to consumers. This stock is directly affected by the forces of economics as grocers can only sell at the level that their produce is demanded. As a result, once this stock exceeds demand, it will rise as food no longer sold.

Overstock Waste is a stock that is designed to model the overstock display assumption which states that consumers have more incentive to purchase foods from fully stocked piles rather than empty ones. This stock exists and accumulates over time because grocers purchase excess produce to give buyers incentive.

Ugly Food Stock is the stock that represent the amount of perfectly nutritious ugly produce neglected by consumers as they only buy the prettiest clusters from the display. This stock includes foods such as brown bananas, dented apples, and so forth. These ugly foods are left behind in addition to the overstock waste.

Education Programs is the stock that contains the amount of ugly foods delivered to local school districts for educating students on the significance of ugly food discrimination. These foods are utilized in various forms of comparative demonstrations to illustrate to students that ugly foods are just as nutritious as prettier alternatives.

Compost Alternatives is the stock that depicts the efforts of grocery stores trying to implement a method that allows them to reduce the amount of waste they send to the landfill. These compost methods may be in the form on enriched manure given back to the farmers that supply the produce.

10 Food Units/Resale Output is the variable that illustrates the amount of food units required to make a product for resale. For example, it takes 10 units of melons to make an assorted melon platter. Likewise, a single smoothie for resale will require 5 units of assorted fruits.

Rainfall is posing a dangerous threat to high-precipitation cities such as Vancouver. In natural, forested conditions, 10-20 mm of the rainfall that occurs is intercepted by the lush, vegetative canopy of trees and plants, as it is eventually soaked into the ground before stormwater runoff is generated. This contrasts heavily with unnatural, urbanized areas, where runoff can be generated from as little as 2 mm of precipitation! In an average month in Vancouver, 240 mm of precipitation may fall in 30 days. This equates to an average of 8 mm of precipitation a day. As our climate continues to warm, the frequency and the intensity of our rainfall will only increase. By the year 2050, Vancouver is expected to experience a 5% increase in the volume of rain that occurs over the winter months, alternatively experiencing a 19% decrease in the amount of rainfall throughout the summer months. On Vancouver’s wettest days, extreme rainfall events are expected to intensify by 63%. Our snowpack  is expected to decrease by 53%, as our city’s snow will melt due to the increased temperatures. This will result in surface water flooding, sewer backups, and sewage overflow. Currently, Vancouver’s only approach to solving this issue is spending money to fix and replace the damages that are generated from this unmitigated stormwater runoff. The city of Vancouver has allocated $29.5 million towards Sewer Main replacement. The amount of runoff that is generated from our urbanized city is not only harming the environment, but the economy as well. What could possibly be a better solution than spending money to fix all of these damages runoff is creating? Green Infrastructure! By implementing green infrastructure, this issue is combated in a holistic manner. Through thoughtfully designed living roofs, swales, rain gardens, permeable paving, and rain barrels, we are able to mitigate this stormwater runoff in an effective way that supports our environment, economy, and our society.

BRIEF OPENING PARAGRAPH:

Our sustainability challenge surrounds the issues that stem from ineffective mitigation of stormwater. Through this, there is an increased risk of flooding, as stormwater runoff is directly released into rivers. This unregulated runoff creates social, economic, and environmental issues. The increased chance of floods creates social issues such as property damage to homes, destruction of crops and livestock, and severe mental trauma to those affected. The environment is also impacted by this issue, as improper stormwater mitigation creates an increase in temperature through the Urban Heated Island Effect. Finally, this challenge raises several economic issues, as funds for repairing damages may become limited through repeated flood damage, with property value will plummeting as a result. Our model will present the challenge of ineffective stormwater mitigation, and the social, economic, and environmental issues that occur as a result.

BRIEF CLOSING PARAGRAPH:

Through our model, the issues of improper mitigation of runoff have been presented. It is clear that without regulation, stormwater runoff can be detrimental to our society, economy, and our environment. Living in an area that rains often, such as Greater Vancouver, this issue is extremely relevant, as we are directly impacted by unregulated runoff. When running a simulation of our model on InsightMaker, groundwater is shown to increase initially, and then quickly plateaus. This is because groundwater is not infinite, and if this problem continues to persist, we will eventually run out of drinkable water. It is important that we raise awareness to this issue, and that we understand its impacts from societal, economic, and environmental perspectives.

SEPARATE PAGE FOR A DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE MODEL AND THE ISSUES EXPLAINED IN DETAIL:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/11-Md0b_tNKTJMsKvJmUB2U3A-S9YERFpcXZSmZ4JPco/edit?usp=sharing

This model incorporates several options in examining fisheries dynamics and fisheries employment. The two most important aspects are the choice between I)managing based on setting fixed quota versus setting fixed effort , and ii) using the 'scientific advice' for quota setting  versus allowing 'political influence' on quota setting (the assumption here is that you have good estimates of recruitment and stock assessments that form the basis of 'scientific advice' and then 'political influnce' that desires increased quota beyond the scientific advice).

This model incorporates several options in examining fisheries dynamics and fisheries employment. The two most important aspects are the choice between I)managing based on setting fixed quota versus setting fixed effort , and ii) using the 'scientific advice' for quota setting  versus allowing 'political influence' on quota setting (the assumption here is that you have good estimates of recruitment and stock assessments that form the basis of 'scientific advice' and then 'political influnce' that desires increased quota beyond the scientific advice).

This model incorporates several options in examining fisheries dynamics and fisheries employment. The two most important aspects are the choice between I)managing based on setting fixed quota versus setting fixed effort , and ii) using the 'scientific advice' for quota setting  versus allowing 'political influence' on quota setting (the assumption here is that you have good estimates of recruitment and stock assessments that form the basis of 'scientific advice' and then 'political influnce' that desires increased quota beyond the scientific advice).

Creating a basic simulation

This model incorporates several options in examining fisheries dynamics and fisheries employment. The two most important aspects are the choice between I)managing based on setting fixed quota versus setting fixed effort , and ii) using the 'scientific advice' for quota setting  versus allowing 'political influence' on quota setting (the assumption here is that you have good estimates of recruitment and stock assessments that form the basis of 'scientific advice' and then 'political influnce' that desires increased quota beyond the scientific advice).

This model incorporates several options in examining fisheries dynamics and fisheries employment. The two most important aspects are the choice between I)managing based on setting fixed quota versus setting fixed effort , and ii) using the 'scientific advice' for quota setting  versus allowing 'political influence' on quota setting (the assumption here is that you have good estimates of recruitment and stock assessments that form the basis of 'scientific advice' and then 'political influnce' that desires increased quota beyond the scientific advice).

Rainfall is posing a dangerous threat to high-precipitation cities such as Vancouver. In natural, forested conditions, 10-20 mm of the rainfall that occurs is intercepted by the lush, vegetative canopy of trees and plants, as it is eventually soaked into the ground before stormwater runoff is generated. This contrasts heavily with unnatural, urbanized areas, where runoff can be generated from as little as 2 mm of precipitation! In an average month in Vancouver, 240 mm of precipitation may fall in 30 days. This equates to an average of 8 mm of precipitation a day. As our climate continues to warm, the frequency and the intensity of our rainfall will only increase. By the year 2050, Vancouver is expected to experience a 5% increase in the volume of rain that occurs over the winter months, alternatively experiencing a 19% decrease in the amount of rainfall throughout the summer months. On Vancouver’s wettest days, extreme rainfall events are expected to intensify by 63%. Our snowpack  is expected to decrease by 53%, as our city’s snow will melt due to the increased temperatures. This will result in surface water flooding, sewer backups, and sewage overflow. Currently, Vancouver’s only approach to solving this issue is spending money to fix and replace the damages that are generated from this unmitigated stormwater runoff. The city of Vancouver has allocated $29.5 million towards Sewer Main replacement. The amount of runoff that is generated from our urbanized city is not only harming the environment, but the economy as well. What could possibly be a better solution than spending money to fix all of these damages runoff is creating? Green Infrastructure! By implementing green infrastructure, this issue is combated in a holistic manner. Through thoughtfully designed living roofs, swales, rain gardens, permeable paving, and rain barrels, we are able to mitigate this stormwater runoff in an effective way that supports our environment, economy, and our society.
As you can see through our model, implementing Green Infrastructure offers a solution to the issue of unmitigated storm water in Vancouver. This Green Infrastructure is engineered by landscape architects and hydrological engineers, and is able to adapt to a system specific to our regional conditions to ensure that the water runoff mimics the natural landscape of the land before our urban infrastructure ruined it. In our model under “Economic Trends,” there is an initial delay and drop in property value, which is due to a period of trial and error during the installation of Green Infrastructure. Investment in Green Infrastructure will increase, leading to the rise of property values. Moreover, in the “Environmental” section of our model, we initially see a decrease in our volume of unpolluted, drinkable groundwater. This occurs during the transition phase as Green Infrastructure is becoming implemented into our buildings and landscapes. Eventually, the amount of drinkable groundwater stabilizes and balances off. Furthermore, in our model under “Trends for Green Homes effect on UHI and Snowmelt/Snowpacks,” it is evident that as more homes are built with Green Infrastructure, the Urban Heated Island effect decreases, as the airflow is better regulated, leading to a cooler average temperature throughout the area. This allows for maintenance of our mountainous snowpacks, and thus decreasing the amount of runoff that is generated from snowmelt. Finally, our society is impacted by this solution of Green Infrastructure, as our population will be happy with the ample amount of accessible, clean drinking water that this solution provides them. Morale will increase as homes are no longer at risk of water damage due to flash floods, and environmental awareness will rise, along with motivation and drive towards creating a more sustainable and holistic lifestyle.

This model incorporates several options in examining fisheries dynamics and fisheries employment. The two most important aspects are the choice between I)managing based on setting fixed quota versus setting fixed effort , and ii) using the 'scientific advice' for quota setting  versus allowing 'political influence' on quota setting (the assumption here is that you have good estimates of recruitment and stock assessments that form the basis of 'scientific advice' and then 'political influnce' that desires increased quota beyond the scientific advice).

SE Systems Mapping - Assignment 1

WIP Cloned from WIP Africa Just Transition insight including (Fig 3.1 from Jorgen Randers book 2052 a Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years) with Fidel Kaboub MMT Prespective to continue top down work on my slides of clds and macroeconomics

WIP Cloned insight (Fig 3.1 from Jorgen Randers book 2052 a Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years) with Fidel Kaboub MMT Prespective CLD kumu added ALso AI based work at Gene's brain link and Colonial origins (Why Nations Fail Critique) paper (also via brain link) Continued top down integration at insight

This model incorporates several options in examining fisheries dynamics and fisheries employment. The two most important aspects are the choice between I)managing based on setting fixed quota versus setting fixed effort , and ii) using the 'scientific advice' for quota setting  versus allowing 'political influence' on quota setting (the assumption here is that you have good estimates of recruitment and stock assessments that form the basis of 'scientific advice' and then 'political influnce' that desires increased quota beyond the scientific advice).

Template for mapping SDG linkages for sustainable systems engineering

This is a model depicting Durham region waste management. It shows 4 types of waste, what township they come from, and how much waste (in tonnes) comes from each of the 3 townships in the Durham Region with a Durham Region-owned waste management facility. The garbage leftover from each township after removing everything recyclable, compostable, and reusable, is sent to the Durham York Energy Center to create energy from the garbage. 

Template for mapping SDG linkages for sustainable systems engineering

Causal loop diagram capturing the interactions, trade-offs, and synergies between agriculture (SDG 2), water availability (SDG 6), economic growth (SDG 8), and life on land (SDG 15). Positive feedback linkages are shown as a positive sign (+), whereas negative feedback linkages are shown with a negative sign (−). The purple arrows indicate the enviro-biophysical linkages. The green arrows indicate the socio-economic linkages. The SDG icons are courtesy of the UN SDG communications material. 

Reference - Bandari, Reihaneh, et al. "Participatory Modeling for Analyzing Interactions Between High‐Priority Sustainable Development Goals to Promote Local Sustainability." Earth's Future 11.12 (2023): e2023EF003948.