Wealth can be seen as the factories,
infrastructure, goods and services the population of a nation dispose of. According
to Tim Garrett, a scientist who looks at
the economy from the perspective of physics, it is existing wealth that generates
economic activity and growth. This growth demands the use of energy as no
activity can take place without its use. He also points out that the use of this
energy unavoidably leads to concentrations of CO2 in the
atmosphere. All this, Tim Garrett says, follows from the second law of thermodynamics.
If wealth decreases then so does economic activity and growth. The CLD tries to illustrate how wealth,
ironically, now generates the conditions and feedback loops that may cause it to decline. The consequences are inevitably economic stagnation (or secular recession?).
You can
read about the connection Tim Garrett makes between 'Wealth, Economic Growth,
Energy and CO2 Emissions' simply by
Googling 'Tim Garrett and Economy'.
Pope
Francis, in his recent encyclical on climate change, said that social movements
are critical in promoting action on global warming. This simple CLD shows how
the influence of climate-change movements could affect both public opinion and
the government. An important aspect is that the activism of such movements will
have a negative influence on the prestige of the fossil-fuel companies. This in turn
will weaken their capacity to influence and to exert pressure on the government.
As the movements act, pressure on the government
will increase but simultaneously the capacity of the fossil fuel industry to
pressure the government will decrease.
As a result, the government will find it easier to push trough legislation to
force fossil fuel companies to keep unburnable reserves in the ground. Climate
change moments can contribute decisively to bring about urgently needed action
on global warming
WIP Cloned from WIP Africa Just Transition insight including (Fig 3.1 from Jorgen Randers book 2052 a Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years) with Fadhel Kaboub MMT Perspective to continue top down work on my slides of clds and macroeconomics
Social
movements have a major role to play in forcing politicians to act on climate
change. This opinion has been clearly expressed by Pope Francis in his encyclical
on climate change and, amongst others, also by Naomi Klein in her book 'This
changes Everything'. The CLD suggests the need to strengthen the reinforcing
loops R1 and R2 representing the activities of environmental movements and also to disrupt
the reinforcing loop R3 representing climate change deniers. The most effective way in my opinion to
strengthen R1 and R2 is to weaken R3. This could be done by countering false arguments
by pointing out on all occasions that the debate on climate change is over:
climate scientists, by an overwhelming consensus, have established that anthropogenic
global warming is a scientific fact. It could also be done by educating the public.
The urgency of the situation suggests that the most effective way of doing this
could be by closing negative feedback loops, for example, by linking extreme
weather events, supported by graphic images, to global warming. Global warming
can also be linked to inequality, poverty, larger forest fires, coral reef bleaching, etc. The Pope has started
the work by establishing these links in his encyclical. Of course, these are
merely suggestions. Looking at the CLD carefully might well reveal other
effective points of intervention
To maintain economic wealth (roads, hospitals, power
lines, etc.) power needs to be consumed. The same applies to economic activity,
since any activity requires the consumption of energy. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the burning
of fossil fuels was responsible for 79 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions
in 2010. So whilst economic
activity takes place fossil fuels will be burned and CO2 emissions are
unavoidable - unless we use exclusively renewable energy resources, which is
not likely to occur very soon. However, the increasing CO2 concentrations in
the atmosphere will have negative consequences, such droughts, floods, crop
failures, etc. These effects represent limits to economic growth. The CLD
illustrates some of the more prominent negative feedback loops that act as a
break on economic growth and wealth. As the negative feedback loops (B1-B4) get stronger, an interesting question is, 'will a sharp reduction
in economic wealth and unavoidable recession lead to wide-spread food riots and disturbances?'
Social
movements have a major role to play in forcing politicians to act on climate
change. This opinion has been clearly expressed by Pope Francis in his encyclical
on climate change and, amongst others, also by Naomi Klein in her book 'This
changes Everything'. The CLD suggests the need to strengthen the reinforcing
loops R1 and R2 representing the activities of environmental movements and also to disrupt
the reinforcing loop R3 representing climate change deniers. The most effective way in my opinion to
strengthen R1 and R2 is to weaken R3. This could be done by countering false arguments
by pointing out on all occasions that the debate on climate change is over:
climate scientists, by an overwhelming consensus, have established that anthropogenic
global warming is a scientific fact. It could also be done by educating the public.
The urgency of the situation suggests that the most effective way of doing this
could be by closing negative feedback loops, for example, by linking extreme
weather events, supported by graphic images, to global warming. Global warming
can also be linked to inequality, poverty, larger forest fires, coral reef bleaching, etc. The Pope has started
the work by establishing these links in his encyclical. Of course, these are
merely suggestions. Looking at the CLD carefully might well reveal other
effective points of intervention
