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  Overview  A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania.  Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.     How the model works.   Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.  Wit
Overview
A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania.  Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

How the model works.
Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.
With mountain bkie visits.  This depends on past experience and recommendations.  Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users.  Park capacity limits the number of users.  
Interesting insights
It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking.  By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved.  A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers.  Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking
 This model is derived from the paper " Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that Never Happened: Creating and Sustaining Process Improvement " by Nelson P. Repenning and John D Sterman. See  Insight 752  for a causal loop version of this model.  @ LinkedIn ,  Twitter ,  YouTube

This model is derived from the paper "Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that Never Happened: Creating and Sustaining Process Improvement" by Nelson P. Repenning and John D Sterman. See Insight 752 for a causal loop version of this model.

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 From Jay Forrester 1971 Book  World Dynamics , the earlier, simpler version of the  World 3   Limits to Growth  Model. adapted from Mark Heffernan's ithink version at  Systemswiki .  An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at  http://w

From Jay Forrester 1971 Book World Dynamics, the earlier, simpler version of the World 3 Limits to Growth Model. adapted from Mark Heffernan's ithink version at Systemswiki.

An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/

  INTRODUCTION
  

  COVID-19  

 Coronavirus which was named COVID-19 is a
respiratory disease which affects the lungs of the infected person and thus
making such people vulnerable to other diseases such as pneumonia. It was first
discovered in Wuhan China in December 2019 and since then has spread

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19

Coronavirus which was named COVID-19 is a respiratory disease which affects the lungs of the infected person and thus making such people vulnerable to other diseases such as pneumonia. It was first discovered in Wuhan China in December 2019 and since then has spread across the world affecting more than 40 million people from which over one million have died.

In the early discovery of the COVID-19, there were measures that were put in place with the help World Health Organization (WHO). They recommended a social distance of 1.5 meters to 2 meters to curb the spread since the scientist warned that COVID-19 can be carried in the droplets when someone breathes or cough. Another measure which was advised by WHO was wearing of mask, especially when people are in group. Wearing of mask would ensure that someone’s droplets do not leave their mouth or nose when they breathe or cough. It also help one from breathing in the virus which believed to be contagious and airborne.

The World Health Organization also advised on washing of the hand and avoiding frequent touching of the face. People mostly use their hand to touch surfaces which mad their hand the greatest harbor of the disease. Therefore, washing hands with soap will kill and wash away the virus from the hands. Avoiding touching of face also will prevent people from contracting the disease since the virus is believed to enter the body through openings such as eye, nose and mouth.

Another measure as a precaution from contracting the disease was to avoid hand shaking, hugging, kissing and any other thing which would bring people together. These were measures put to ensure that COVID-19 do not move from one person to another because of its airborne nature and the fact that it can be carried from the mouth or nose droplets.

Healthcare workers, in most of the countries, were provided with Personal Protective Equipment (PPEs) which helped them to protect themselves from contracting the virus. Healthcare workers were at the forefront in combating the disease since they were the people receiving the sick, including the ones with the virus. This exposed them to COVID-19 more than anyone hence more care was needed for them. Their PPEs comprised of white overall covering the whole body from head to toes. It also includes face mask and googles worn to prevent anything getting in their eyes. Their hands also were covered with gloves which were removed occasionally to avoid concentration of the virus on one glove.

COVID-19 affected many economies across the world as it greatly affected the human economic activities across the world. Due to the nature and how it spread, COVID-19 lead many countries to lockdown the country as we know it. Travelling was stopped as many countries feared the surge of the virus due to many people travelling form the countries which are already greatly affected. Another reason which travelling was hampered was due to the fact that the virus could spread among the travelers in an airplane. There were no proper measures to ensure social distance in the airplane and many people feared travelling from fear of contracting the disease.

This greatly affected the economy of many countries including great economies like USA. Tourism industry was the one affected the most as many country mostly depend on foreign travelers as their tourist. Many countries do not have proper domestic tourism structure and therefore depend on visitors who travels from foreign countries. Such countries have their economies greatly affected since the earnings from tourism either gone down or was not there at all.

Apart from locking down the country from foreigners, many major cities across the world were under lockdown. This means that even the citizens of the country were neither allowed in or out of the city. This restricted movement of people affecting greatly the human economic activities as many businesses were closed down especially transport businesses. The movement of goods from one places to another was affected making business difficult to carry out. Many people who dealt in perishable agricultural products count losses as their farm produced were destroyed because of lack of wider market. Some countries banned some businesses such as importing second hand clothes since it was believed that they could harbor the virus. Most of the meeting places such as sporting events and pubs were closed down affecting greatly the people who were involved in such businesses.

Across the world, schools were closed. Schools contain students in large numbers which could affect many students across the world. Learning was temporary stopped as different countries were finding ways of curbing the virus.

Scientist are busy like bees across the world to find the vaccine for the diseases that have ravage many countries and above all, they are trying to find the cure. Many countries have carried out their trial of vaccines with the hope to find an effective vaccine for the virus.

Meanwhile it is necessary to find ways by which the virus can be controlled so that it doesn’t spread to a point where it come out of control. Some of the measures put by the WHO has been highlighted above, but these measures need to be studied to ensure that measures which are more effective are affected at great heights. I therefore, have created a model in Insight Maker to check how these measures prove their effectiveness over time.

A visual look at using technology in school based on the article:     Levin, B. B., & Schrum, L. (2013). Using systems thinking to leverage technology for school improvement: Lessons learned from award-winning secondary Schools/Districts.  Journal of Research on Technology in Education,   46 (1)
A visual look at using technology in school based on the article:

 Levin, B. B., & Schrum, L. (2013). Using systems thinking to leverage technology for school improvement: Lessons learned from award-winning secondary Schools/Districts. Journal of Research on Technology in Education, 46(1), 29-51. 
 Ce modèle simule la dynamique de deux populations en interaction : une population de  proies (X)  et une population de  prédateurs (Y) . Il est inspiré des travaux fondateurs de Lotka et Volterra et permet de comprendre l'origine des cycles de population.  Ce modèle s'inscrit dans la suite de notre

Ce modèle simule la dynamique de deux populations en interaction : une population de proies (X) et une population de prédateurs (Y). Il est inspiré des travaux fondateurs de Lotka et Volterra et permet de comprendre l'origine des cycles de population.

Ce modèle s'inscrit dans la suite de notre cours sur la dynamique des populations. Après avoir étudié la dynamique d'une seule population (exponentielle, logistique), ce modèle introduit la dynamique des communautés en couplant le destin de deux espèces.

Contrairement aux modèles précédents centrés uniquement sur le nombre d’individus (N), ce modèle explore comment les interactions trophiques (le fait de "manger" et d'"être mangé") créent des comportements émergents complexes, tels que les oscillations décalées et la stabilité du système.

Chaque population n'est pas isolée ; son taux de croissance ou de déclin dépend directement de l'abondance de l'autre.

Les Composants du Modèle :

Variables d’état (Stocks) :

  • X (Proie) : Abondance de la population de proies.

  • Y (Prédateur) : Abondance de la population de prédateurs.

Flux (représentant dX/dt et dY/dt) :

  • Prey Births : Taux de croissance intrinsèque de la proie (rX).

  • Prey Deaths : Mortalité de la proie, due à l'auto-limitation (bX2), à la prédation (cXY) et à la chasse (HX).

  • Predator Births : Croissance du prédateur, qui dépend de sa capacité à convertir les proies mangées en nouveaux prédateurs (c′XY).

  • Predator Deaths : Mortalité du prédateur, due à sa mort naturelle (mY) et à la chasse (HY).

Paramètres modifiables (Curseurs) :

  • X (Proie) : Abondance initiale des proies.

    • Valeur initiale : 50

  • Y (Prédateur) : Abondance initiale des prédateurs.

    • Valeur initiale : 15

  • r (Taux de croissance des proies) : Taux de reproduction intrinsèque des proies.

    • Valeur initiale : 0.5

  • b (Auto-limitation des proies) : Force de la compétition intraspécifique (l'effet logistique K).

    • Valeur initiale : 0

  • m (Mortalité des prédateurs) : Taux de mortalité naturel (intrinsèque) des prédateurs.

    • Valeur initiale : 0.3

  • c (Taux de prédation) : Efficacité de la chasse du prédateur sur la proie.

    • Valeur initiale : 0.02

  • c_prime (Efficacité de conversion) : Capacité du prédateur à convertir une proie mangée.

    • Valeur initiale : 0.01

  • H (Effort de Chasse) : Taux de mortalité externe (chasse, pêche) s'appliquant aux deux espèces.

    • Valeur initiale : 0

Indicateurs produits :

  • Graphique temporel : Montre les oscillations et le décalage caractéristique entre le pic des proies et celui des prédateurs.

  • Diagramme de phase : Montre la trajectoire du système (cercle, spirale) et révèle sa stabilité (neutre ou amortie).

  • Abondance moyenne : Le niveau d'équilibre autour duquel les populations oscillent.

Votre Mission d'Exploration :

Votre objectif est de vous mettre dans la peau d'un écologue théoricien pour tester les fondements du modèle Lotka-Volterra et résoudre l'énigme de D'Ancona.

  1. Validez les briques de base : Isolez les populations (Mission 1) pour vérifier la croissance logistique et le déclin exponentiel.

  2. Recréez le "pendule" : Simulez le modèle original de Volterra (b=0) et explorez la stabilité neutre (Mission 2).

  3. Testez la stabilité moderne : Ajoutez de l'auto-limitation (b>0) et observez la convergence vers un équilibre stable (Mission 3).

  4. Explorez la physiologie : Testez l'effet d'un prédateur au "métabolisme lent" (Mission 4).

  5. Résolvez l'énigme : Utilisez le modèle (b=0) et le curseur H (Chasse) pour recréer le "Paradoxe de la Chasse" (Mission 5).

Cliquez sur "SIMULATE" et explorez la dynamique fondamentale qui régit les interactions prédateurs-proies !