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Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19. With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease. We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured
Mat375 SIR Math Modeling COVID-19 Coronavirus SIRD
Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.

We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured in

Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure

With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.

Resources:
Coronavirus: A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) with death
Andrew E Long
62
Westley, F. R., O. Tjornbo, L. Schultz, P. Olsson, C. Folke, B. Crona and Ö. Bodin. 2013. A theory of transformative agency in linked social-ecological systems.  Ecology and Society   18 (3): 27. link
Transformation Panarchy Ecology Environment
Westley, F. R., O. Tjornbo, L. Schultz, P. Olsson, C. Folke, B. Crona and Ö. Bodin. 2013. A theory of transformative agency in linked social-ecological systems. Ecology and Society 18(3): 27. link

Transformative Agency in Social-Ecological System
Geoff McDonnell
5
Kasus: PLN berkomitmen meningkatkan porsi energi terbarukan. Awalnya terbarukan 20%, fosil 80%. Pertumbuhan terbarukan 10% per tahun, fosil 2% per tahun. Namun, dominasi fosil menekan laju pertumbuhan terbarukan, sementara peningkatan terbarukan menurunkan porsi fosil.

Kasus: PLN berkomitmen meningkatkan porsi energi terbarukan. Awalnya terbarukan 20%, fosil 80%. Pertumbuhan terbarukan 10% per tahun, fosil 2% per tahun. Namun, dominasi fosil menekan laju pertumbuhan terbarukan, sementara peningkatan terbarukan menurunkan porsi fosil.
2. Analisis Dinamika Transisi Energi Terbarukan Dalam Sistem PLN
syukur putra
2 weeks ago
Overview A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania.  Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation. How the model works. Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs. Wit
BMA708 System Dynamics Economy Ecology Tourism Mountain biking Derby Tasmania Marketing Insights into Big Data Forestry
Overview
A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania.  Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

How the model works.
Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.
With mountain bkie visits.  This depends on past experience and recommendations.  Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users.  Park capacity limits the number of users.  
Interesting insights
It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking.  By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved.  A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers.  Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking
Simulation of Derby Mountain biking versus logging
Steven D'Alessandro
22
Success to the successful archetype represents two reinforcing structures which may be in a delicate balance though as soon as one gains a small advantage the resource allocation favors the more successful and the result is then rapidly skewed in the direction of the more successful. See also  Arche
Archetype Success To The Successful
Success to the successful archetype represents two reinforcing structures which may be in a delicate balance though as soon as one gains a small advantage the resource allocation favors the more successful and the result is then rapidly skewed in the direction of the more successful. See also Archetypes.
Success to the Successful
Gene Bellinger
20
This insight is about infection propagation and  population migration influence on this propagation. For this, we defined a world population size and a percentage of it who’s infected. Then, we created an agent where we simulated possible states of an individual. So, he can be healthy, infected (wi
Infection Health Migration
This insight is about infection propagation and  population migration influence on this propagation. For this, we defined a world population size and a percentage of it who’s infected. Then, we created an agent where we simulated possible states of an individual. So, he can be healthy, infected (with an infection rate) or immunized ( with a certain rate of immunization). If the individual is infected, he can be alive or dead. Then, we simulated different continents (North-America, Asia and Europe) with a migration between these with a certain rate of migration (we tried to approach reality). Then, thanks to our move action which represents a circular permutation between the different continents with a random probability, the agent will be applied to every individual of the world population.

 How does the program work ?

In order to use this insight, we need to define a size of world population and a probability of every individual to reproduce himself. Every individual of this population can have three different state (healthy, infected or immunized) and infected people can be alive or dead. We need to define a percentage of infection to healthy people and a percentage of death for infected people and also a percentage of immunization.
Finally there is Migration Part of the program, in this one, we need to define three different continents, states or whatever you want. We also need to define a migration probability between each continent to move these person. With this moving people, we can study the influence of migration on the propagation of a disease.

Vincent Cochet, Julien Platel, Jordan Béguet
важная фигня
Amirkhan Akhmet
3 weeks ago