Diagram and simulation of disease spread

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Explore What Others Are Building

Here is a sample of public Insights made by Insight Maker users. This list is auto-generated and updated daily.

Simple bathtub model to show the difference between Stock and Flow. Run the model with various values for filling and draining to see the implications.

@LinkedIn, Twitter, YouTube

Bathtub Model _Ma

Pramuditha Waidyarathne

3 weeks ago

From Werner Ulrich's JORS Articles Operational research and critical systems thinking – an integrated perspective. Part 1: OR as applied systems thinking. Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication (14 December 2011). and Part 2 :OR as argumentative practice.

See also insight on Boundary Critique

Critical Systems Thinking

Geoff McDonnell

3 4 months ago

This model is derived from the paper "Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that Never Happened: Creating and Sustaining Process Improvement" by Nelson P. Repenning and John D Sterman. See Insight 752 for a causal loop version of this model.

@LinkedIn, Twitter, YouTube

Credit Never Happened Simulation

Gene Bellinger

SARS-CoV-19 spread in different countries

- please adjust variables accordingly

Italy

elderly population (>65): 0.228
estimated undetected cases factor: 4-11
starting population size: 60 000 000
high blood pressure: 0.32 (gbe-bund)
heart disease: 0.04 (statista)
free intensive care units: 3 100

Germany

elderly population (>65): 0.195 (bpb)
estimated undetected cases factor: 2-3 (deutschlandfunk)
starting population size: 83 000 000
high blood pressure: 0.26 (gbe-bund)
heart disease: 0.2-0.28 (herzstiftung)
free intensive care units: 5 880

France

elderly population (>65): 0.183 (statista)
estimated undetected cases factor: 3-5
starting population size: 67 000 000
high blood pressure: 0.3 (fondation-recherche-cardio-vasculaire)
heart disease: 0.1-0.2 (oecd)
free intensive care units: 3 000

As you wish

numbers of encounters/day: 1 = quarantine, 2-3 = practicing social distancing, 4-6 = heavy social life, 7-9 = not caring at all // default 2
practicing preventive measures (ie. washing hands regularly, not touching your face etc.): 0.1 (nobody does anything) - 1 (very strictly) // default 0.8
government elucidation: 0.1 (very bad) - 1 (highly transparent and educating) // default 0.9
Immunity rate (due to lacking data): 0 (you can't get immune) - 1 (once you had it you'll never get it again) // default 0.4

Key

Healthy: People are not infected with SARS-CoV-19 but could still get it
Infected: People have been infected and developed the disease COVID-19
Recovered: People just have recovered from COVID-19 and can't get it again in this stage
Dead: People died because of COVID-19
Immune: People got immune and can't get the disease again
Critical recovery percentage: Chance of survival with no special medical treatment

SARS-CoV-19 model

Lucia Vega Resto

The 'Psychobiologicla' model was described and articulated by the Australian psychiatrist Niall McLaren.

It consists of hormone releases, principally testosterone, when challenges arise. These rekeases are genetically governed and create psychological effects. The effects produce moods, feelings, and can provoke aggresssive and dominating behaviour.

The simplified model shows that on the perception of a challenging or threatening situation the testosterone level rises in men. Testosterone is a feel-good hormone that rewards aggression and domination with further releases. This mechanism is self-reinforcing, but can be tempered by personality factors and institutional constraints. As these are primeval processes and effects that are always present when challenges occur, the psychobiological model serves as excellent tool for understanding and interpreting conflicts.

The Psychobiological Model

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

last week

Simulating Hyperinflation for 3650 days.

If private bond holdings are going down and the government is running a big deficit then the central bank has to monetize bonds equal to the deficit plus the decrease in private bond holdings. We don't show the details of the central bank buying bonds here, just the net results.

See blog at http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com for more on hyperinflation, including a hyperinflation FAQ.

Hyperinflation Simulation

Vincent Cate