There exists a well defined set of possible ways to alter an existing set of interactions. Each of these alterations will produce a particular effect depending on the relations the change is relative to. Identifying which are possible and which will migrate the interactions to produce the desired situation is the essence of the strategy.

From Jay Forrester 1988 killian lectures youtube video describing system dynamics at MIT. For more detailed biography See Jay Forrester memorial webpage For MIT HIstory see IM-184930 For Applications se IM-185462

Enabling a Better Tomorrow is a systemic approach for developing a systemic strategy which may be employed to intervene in a current situation to effect the desired results while minimizing the likelihood of creating new problems in the process.

Draft causal loop

Activity:Identify and map audience system archetype, including potential/anticipated leverage points, conflicts, unknowns, etc. for each of the personas. You will illustrate your findings using causal loop diagrams

Initial qualitative causal loop diagram Fig 5.21 from Dianati, K. (2022) London’s Housing Crisis – A System Dynamics Analysis of Long-term Developments: 40 Years into the Past and 40 Years into the Future UCL PhD Thesis and see also Video presentation and CLD 2 Insight after Simulation experiments

Counterfactual views are claims or beliefs that are contrary to established facts. Such views can be extremely harmful.  An example would be the false claims made by climate-change-deniers. This simple graph of two self-reinforcing loops illustrates that there are circumstances where such false beliefs strengthen once a sufficiently large number have accepted them. The mechanism, well documented by research in cognitive psychology, is frequent repetition, which makes such false messages appear ever more familiar and to take on an air of factual truth.

An effective leverage point would be for newspapers and TV station simply to deny to authors that want to spread counterfactual views access to their platforms.  Whilst everybody has the right to express their opinion, does anybody have the right to invent their own facts in an attempt to undermine general well-being?

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A model of ebola in west Africa

A model of ebola in west Africa

Based on Nate Osgood's April 2014 Singapore Presentation Youtube video and Lyle Wallis material Gojii at DecisioTech See also Complex Decison Technologies IM as a more polished version

From Hieronymi's 2013 Systems Research Paper Understanding Systems Science. Systems Science as one of the clusters of interacting methods for improving health services network design and delivery using complex decision technologies see insight

A model of ebola in west Africa