This diagram will map out the spread of the Coronavirus (SAR-CoV-2) and its complexities of health care.
This diagram will map out the spread of the Coronavirus (SAR-CoV-2) and its complexities of health care.
 Introduction; 
 This model shows COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie have some impact for local economy situation and government policy. The main government policy is lockdown during the spreading period which can help reduce the infected rate, and also increase the test scale to help susceptible confirm t

Introduction;

This model shows COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie have some impact for local economy situation and government policy. The main government policy is lockdown during the spreading period which can help reduce the infected rate, and also increase the test scale to help susceptible confirm their situation.


Variables;

Infection rate, Death rate, Recovery rate, test rate, susceptible, immunity rate, economy growth rate

These variables are influenced by different situation.


When cases over 10, government will implement lockdown policy.


Conclusion;

When cases increase too much , they will influence the economic situation.


Interesting insights:

If the recover rate is higher, more people will recover from the disease. It seems to be a positive sign. However, it would lead to a higher number of recovered people and more susceptible. As a result, there would be more cases, and would have a negative impact on the economic growth. 

 This System Model presents the cases of COVID-19 in Puerto Princesa City as of June 3, 2021     Insight Author: Pia Mae M. Palay
This System Model presents the cases of COVID-19 in Puerto Princesa City as of June 3, 2021

Insight Author: Pia Mae M. Palay
This model is developed to simulate how Burnie can deal with a new outbreak of COVID-19 considering health and economic outcomes. The time limit of the simulation is 100 days when a stable circumstance is reached.      Stocks   There are four stocks involved in this model. Susceptible represents the
This model is developed to simulate how Burnie can deal with a new outbreak of COVID-19 considering health and economic outcomes. The time limit of the simulation is 100 days when a stable circumstance is reached. 

Stocks
There are four stocks involved in this model. Susceptible represents the number of people that potentially could be infected. Infected refers to the number of people infected at the moment. Recovered means the number of people that has been cured, but it could turn into susceptible given a specific period of time since the immunity does not seem everlasting. Death case refers to the total number of death since the beginning of outbreak. The sum of these four stocks add up to the initial population of the town.

Variables
There are four variables in grey colour that indicate rates or factors of infection, recovery, death or economic outcomes. They usually cannot be accurately identified until it happen, therefore they can be modified by the user to adjust for a better simulation outcome.

Immunity loss rate seems to be less relevant in this case because it is usually unsure and varies for individuals, therefore it is fixed in this model.

The most interesting variable in green represents the government policy, which in this situation should be shifting the financial resources to medical resources to control infection rate, reduce death rate and increase recovery rate. It is limited from 0 to 0.8 since a government cannot shift all of the resources. Bigger scale means more resources are shifted. The change of government policy will be well reflected in the economic outcome, users are encouraged to adjust it to see the change.

The economic outcome is the variable that roughly reflects the daily income of the whole town, which cannot be accurate but it does indicate the trend.

Assumptions:
The recovery of the infected won't happen until 30 days later since it is usually a long process. And the start of death will be delayed for 14 days considering the characteristic of the virus.
Economic outcome will be affected by the number of infected since the infected cannot normally perform financial activities.
Immunity effect is fixed at 30 days after recovery.

Interesting Insights:
 In this model it is not hard to find that extreme government policy does not result in the best economic outcome, but the values in-between around 0.5 seems to reach the best financial outcome while the health issues are not compromised. That is why usually the government need to balance health and economic according to the circumstance. 
 

Tugas Pemodelan Transportasi Laut    Memodelkan persebaran pandemik covid-19 menggunakan insightmaker     Dosen pembimbing : Dr-Ing Ir. Setyo Nugroho
Tugas Pemodelan Transportasi Laut

Memodelkan persebaran pandemik covid-19 menggunakan insightmaker

Dosen pembimbing : Dr-Ing Ir. Setyo Nugroho
 Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.  The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

 Model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania     This model was designed from SIR model(susceptible, infected, revovered) to find out the effect of covid-19 outbreak into economic outcomes via government policy.     Assumptions     The government policy is triggered when number of infected is mor
Model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

This model was designed from SIR model(susceptible, infected, revovered) to find out the effect of covid-19 outbreak into economic outcomes via government policy.

Assumptions

The government policy is triggered when number of infected is more than ten.

The government policies will take negative effect into Covid-19 outbreaks and financial system

Parameters

We set some fixed and adjusted variables.
Covid-19 outbreak's parameter
Fixed parameters: Infection rate, Background disease, recovery rate.
Adjusted parameter: Immunity loss rate can be change from vaccination rate.

Government policy's parameters
Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)

Economic's parameters
Fixed parameter: Tourism
Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)

Interesting insight

Increase vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number amount of infected case and a little bit more negative effect to economic system. However economic system still need a long time to recover in both cases.
[The Model of COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak in Burnie, TAS]   A model of COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from the government with the impact on the local economy and medical supply.      It is assumed that the government policy is triggered and rely on reported COVID-19 cases when the confirmed cases
[The Model of COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak in Burnie, TAS]

A model of COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from the government with the impact on the local economy and medical supply. 

It is assumed that the government policy is triggered and rely on reported COVID-19 cases when the confirmed cases are 10 or less. 

Interesting insights
The infection rate will decline if the government increase the testing ranges, meanwhile,  the more confirmed cases will increase the pressure on hospital capacity and generate more demand for medical resources, which will promote government policy intervention to narrow the demand gap and  affect economic performance by increasing hospital construction with financial investment.