​From Fig 1.1 p11  Pigliucci M and Muller GB (2010) Evolution: The Extended Synthesis. This is a shift in emphasis from statistical correlation to mechanistic causation (p12), including the conditions for the origin and innovation of traits (p13). It overcomes the gradualism, externalism and gene centrism of the Modern Synthesis. Non-gradual change is a property of complex dynamical systems. EvoDevo processes generate particular forms of change rather than others.Genes are followers in the evolutionary process that capture the emergent interactions among environment, development and inheritance into genetic-epigenetic circuits, which are passed to and elaborated on in subsequent generations (p14).

Modified from Sterman (2006) article and Gene Bellinger's Assumptions IM-351 by Dr Rosemarie Sadsad UNSW See also Complex Decision Technologies IM and IM-63975

​From Fig 1.1 p11  Pigliucci M and Muller GB (2010) Evolution: The Extended Synthesis. This is a shift in emphasis from statistical correlation to mechanistic causation (p12), including the conditions for the origin and innovation of traits (p13). It overcomes the gradualism, externalism and gene centrism of the Modern Synthesis. Non-gradual change is a property of complex dynamical systems. EvoDevo processes generate particular forms of change rather than others.Genes are followers in the evolutionary process that capture the emergent interactions among environment, development and inheritance into genetic-epigenetic circuits, which are passed to and elaborated on in subsequent generations (p14).

Michael Nallon, exam 3 , 11 December 2021

Causal loop structure generated by Gene Bellinger's Gemini scripts from Steve Keen's Jan 2026 substack posting Equilibrium (is) for Dummies

WIP Book Summary based on Terry Sampson's summary of Philip Ball's May 2024 Royal Society presentation

This is a stock-flow consistent model, namely a modified version of the simplest (PC) model with money and boonds.

Godley/Lavoie (2006), chapter 4

(I had to change the equation for consumption demand. The disposable income now enters with a time lag of one period. Otherwise the model would be recursive and would not work in Insight Maker. Thanks to Gene for support.)

WIP for planning  some relevant online M&S Learning Communities for Health

A tongue in cheek look at taking a Gene Udemy Course

Components of behaviour organised into domains, from NIMH Research Domain Criteria website and BMC paper and 2013 series on current controversies in psychiatry.

Unfolding causal loop diagram story of hospital congestion from Eric Wolstenholme's more detailed explanation of hospital congestion IM from March 2022 Youtube video and online stella presentation. Use of cascading interlinked archetypes. See Kumu version,  early discharge boundaries IM for an earlier version and Generic Archetypes IM from Gene Bellinger

A shifting the burden structure occurs when there are different ways to address a situation. With one approach being easier, faster, and requiring fewer resources, which do you think gets pursued? The problem is that taking the easier path ensures one will have to take the easier path repeatedly, and makes it harder to pursue the long-term better solution. See also Archetypes.

Go to Gene Bellinger's insight version with video link This common archetype of systems that include relapse or recidivism allows exploration of the unintended effects of increasing upstream capacity and swamping downstream capacity. The increase in the relapse rate eventually returns to swamp upstream capacity as well. A social welfare example, based on a TANF case study, from How Small System Dynamics Models Can Help the Policy Process. N. Ghaffarzadegan, J. Lyneis, GP Richardson. System Dynamics Review 27,1 (2011) 22-44 abstract Conference version here

Our computer model details the change in allele frequency of resistant mosquitoes in Africa when the government began spraying DDT. The few mosquitoes that naturally survived the chemical sprays reproduced, and created a large population of resistant mosquitoes. When DDT was sprayed later to prevent the spread of malaria, the DDT was not as effective because of the large amount of DDT-resistant phenotypes in the population.