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As part of becoming familiar with InsightMaker, the purpose of this model is to merely replicate Gene Bellinger's completed "Moose_Wolves" model.  

All credit needs to be given to Gene.   Thank you InsightMaker.com for making it so easy to rebuilt and model and provide details on equations, algorithms.  
Moose Wolves v01
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Adapted from Fig.1. and 2, from Ana V Diez Roux (2011) Complex Systems Thinking May Help Us Transcend Current Impasses in Health Disparities Research Am J Public Health 2011;101 1627-1634  http://ajph.aphapublications.org/cgi/content/abstract/101/9/1627?etoc

Genes environment and health disparities interplay
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GSD simulation
Genética, GSD - Liliana, André, Leonor
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Gene infusion
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Causal loop diagram illustrating how evolution, in the form of small incremental change (realized through random genetic mutation) paired with natural selection, serves to evolve species.

Additionally, the diagram illustrates the countering effects of genetic drift, which serves to reduce genetic variation by eliminating beneficial genes.
Evolutionary Change (2-Loop)
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From Fig 12.2 p317 Pigliucci M and Muller GB (2010) Evolution: The Extended Synthesis
Development dynamic interactions
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Model is created by Gene Bellinger. Original model can be accessed from https://insightmaker.com/insight/2249/Adjusting-the-Shower-SFD.

The delays associated with adjusting the shower is a very common example of the Balancing Loop with Delay Systems Archetype.
Adjusting the Shower/SFD
29 6 months ago
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WIP based mostly on Jan Toporowski 2013 vol 1 and 2018 vol 2 books on Michal Kalecki: An Intellectual Biography  
Layout Consistent with David Wheat MacroEconomic model CLD Insight by Gene Bellinger  
Kalecki economic thought
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This is the Project Challenge in the Insight Maker Essentials lesson on Kumu. This lesson was developed by Gene Bellinger. I developed this relationship diagram as I was following along watching Gene introduce Insight Maker.
20150711a_Project
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Assignment 1 Final
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Modified from Sterman (2006) article and Gene Bellinger's Assumptions IM-351 by Dr Rosemarie Sadsad UNSW See also Complex Decision Technologies IM and IM-63975

Virtual Experiments
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​From Fig 1.1 p11  Pigliucci M and Muller GB (2010) Evolution: The Extended Synthesis. This is a shift in emphasis from statistical correlation to mechanistic causation (p12), including the conditions for the origin and innovation of traits (p13). It overcomes the gradualism, externalism and gene centrism of the Modern Synthesis. Non-gradual change is a property of complex dynamical systems. EvoDevo processes generate particular forms of change rather than others.Genes are followers in the evolutionary process that capture the emergent interactions among environment, development and inheritance into genetic-epigenetic circuits, which are passed to and elaborated on in subsequent generations (p14).

Evolution extended synthesis
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NICOLE DESARIO 

AP BIOLOGY 

JUNE 2013


There are many factors that lead to an increased risk of osteoporosis later in life. Some of these risks are congenital; fixed risks that were acquired during fetal development. Other risks are created or reduced by an individual depending on their lifestyle; which make them unfixed variables. 

Definition: OSTEOPOROSIS (Also known as degenerative bone disease) - "is a disease of bones that leads to an increased risk of fracture. In osteoporosis, the bone mineral density (BMD) of an individual is reduced, bone micro-architecture deteriorates, and the amount and variety of proteins in bone and variety of proteins in bone are altered. Osteoporosis is defined by the World Health Organization as a bone mineral density of 2.5 standard deviations or more below the mean peak bone mass (average of young healthy adults)."

NON-MODIFIABLE RISK FACTORS (Explained)

Age: Increased age increases likelihood of developing osteoporosis

Sex: Females are more likely to experience osteoporosis fragility fractures

Race: Osteoporosis is more common in people of European and Asian decent

Frame: Thin-framed individuals do not stress their bones as much as heavier-set individuals, and therefore do not have as "thick" bones, and are more likely to develop fragile bones (osteoporosis) 

Family history: 30 genes are linked to development of osteoporosis, so an individual can be anywhere between 25 and 80% more likely to develop osteoporosis if it exists in the family. (my mother has it, so I am very likely to develop it if I don't actively make the efforts to protect my bones from degenerating over time.)

Insufficient Prenatal Care: During development in the womb if a fetus does not receive appropriate nutrition, it may develop malnutrition-related deficiency diseases.

(POTENTIALLY) MODIFIABLE RISK FACTORS (Explained)

Smoking/Drinking: Excessive use could lead to increased risk because alcohol use decreases your ability to absorb nutrients. It interferes with the absorption of calcium and Vit D (stomach, pancreas and liver affected). Alcohol also kills osteoblasts, the bone-making cells. It also increases bone-damaging hormones cortisol and parathyroid hormone 

Medication Use: Some medications increase risk of osteoporosis however discontinuing use of said medications is often impossible, and therefore the modifiable risk is non-modifiable at times.

Dietary Habits: Majority of bone development happens before an individual reaches the age of 20, so if dietary requirements of calcium, vitamin D, and phosphorus are insufficient, there will be a greater chance of osteoporosis later in life. 

Hormone Levels: In females, estrogen deficiency following menopause or oophorectomy is correlated with rapid reduction in bone mineral density, while in men, a decrease in testosterone levels has a comparable (but less pronounced) effect.

Sedentary Lifestyle: Staying active and stressing your bones decreases chances of osteoporosis because it encourages osteoblastic activity, if an individual is extremely sedentary, (coupled with a thin frame possibly) they are very susceptible to osteoporosis, and should consider getting active. Also, an individual with more sun exposure absorbs more Vit D.

Fractures: Increased breakage of bones creates weak points where BMD cannot recover to what it was prior to the fracture. Individuals should stay out of fights, reduce falling, and avoid clumsy behavior.
Is Osteoporosis More Avoidable than we Thought?
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Fixes that Fail Archetype (Cite: Gene Bellinger)
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An example of why it's so critical to understand where the boundaries are when considering a system. (developed from Eric Wolstenholme's Archetype examples by Gene Bellinger)
YouTube Video
Hospital Early Discharge Boundaries
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Simple regulated gene
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Gene editing simulation
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Existem cerca de quinze arquétipos conhecidos com um interessante conjunto de relações entre eles.

Este modelo foi originalmente concebido por Gene Bellinger.

Traduzido por Ravi Resck
Arquétipos de Sistemas
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CIVE: Final Project Draft 1
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Go to Gene Bellinger's insight version with video link This common archetype of systems that include relapse or recidivism allows exploration of the unintended effects of increasing upstream capacity and swamping downstream capacity. The increase in the relapse rate eventually returns to swamp upstream capacity as well. A social welfare example, based on a TANF case study, from How Small System Dynamics Models Can Help the Policy Process. N. Ghaffarzadegan, J. Lyneis, GP Richardson. System Dynamics Review 27,1 (2011) 22-44 abstract Conference version here

Swamping Insight
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This is a stock-flow consistent model, namely the simplest (SIM) model with government money. I have added imports and exports and an exchange rate which has an influence on consumption demand via real disposable income and real foreign demand.

Godley/Lavoie (2006), chapter 3

(I had to change the equation for consumption demand. The disposable income now enters with a time lag of one period. Otherwise the model would be recursive and would not work in Insight Maker. Thanks to Gene for support.)


designed by Dirk Ehnts (blog)
SIM model, open economy version
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Causal loop diagram summary of David Graeber's Book Bullsh*t Jobs with a flimsy bridge to Gene Bellinger's AI Anxiety narrative and paradox based on my Gemini interaction using Gene's AI prompts
Bullsh*t jobs and AI