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The Covid-19 pandemic has introduced a variety of novel and intense difficulties, from dealing with the production network for individual defensive gear (PPE) to changing labor force ability to adapting to monetary misfortune. Amidst these difficulties lies a chance for medical services pioneers to more readily position and change their associations for an eventual fate of unusual amazement. To oversee limit, monetary misfortune, and care overhaul, medical services associations have settled on the basic choice to deliver or lessen labor force or to move numerous representatives to far off work, incorporating clinicians working with telehealth advances. (www.catalyst.nejm.org)

Reference:

Begun, J.W. PhD, Jiang, J.H, PhD,. (2020, October 9). NEJM Catalyst/Innovations in Care Delivery. Health Care Management During Covid-19: Insights from Complexity Science. Retrieved from https://catalyst.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/CAT.20.0505

Covid-19 Health Care Complexities and Variables

Taleisha Y. Alcorn

This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.

It is assumed that the Government intervention is triggered when the COVID-19 case is equal to or more than 10.

Government intervention - lock down the state, suppress the development of COVID-19 effectively. It is related to most of people stay at home to reduce the exposure in public area.

On the other hand, it also bring the economy of Burnie in the recession, as no tourists, no dining out activities and decrease in money spending in the city.

Burnie COVID-19 outbreaks and economic impacts_Pui Chu Daisy Cheung 524767

Pui Chu Daisy Cheung

7

My Insight

Tomiris Zhalbyrova

Evolution of Covid-19 in Brazil:

A System Dynamics Approach

Villela, Paulo (2020)
paulo.villela@engenharia.ufjf.br

This model is based on Crokidakis, Nuno. (2020). Data analysis and modeling of the evolution of COVID-19 in Brazil. For more details see full paper here.

Evolução da Covid-19 no Brasil

Paulo Villela

A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.

Covid-19 in USA

Марина Якимова

Introduction:

This simulation model demonstrates the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie, Tasmania and how the corresponding government’s responses affect the spreading of Covid-19. Meanwhile, this model also shows how the economy in Burnie is influenced by the impacts of both Covid-19 and government policies.

Variables:

This simulation contains some relevant variables as follow:

Variables in Covid-19 outbreaks: (1) Infection rate, (2) Recovery rate, (3) Death rate, (4) Immunity loss rate

Variables in Government policies: (1) Vaccination rate, (2) Lockdown, (3) Travel ban, (4)Quarantine

Variables in Economy: (1) E-commerce business, (2) Unemployment rate, (3) Economic growth rate.

Assumption:

Government responses would be triggered when reported Covid-19 cases are at least 10.

The government policies reduce the spreading of Covid-19, but they would also limit economic development at the same time due to the negative impact of the policies on the economy is greater than the positive impact.

The increase in reported Covid-19 cases would negatively affect economic growth.

Interesting Insights:

The first finding is that the death number would keep increasing even though the infection rate has decreased, but with stronger government policies (such as implementing a coefficient over 25%), no more death numbers will occur caused by Covid-19.

The second finding is that as government policies limit business activities, with the increasing number of reported Covid-19 cases, economic growth will suffer a severe blow even if e-commerce grows, it can’t make up for this economic loss.

BMA 708 assignment 3 - simulation model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

Xuanze Liang

Системная динамика COVID-19 в Казахстане в 2020 году

Эрметов Диёрбек Нодирбекович

9 months ago

AT-3

Xuanze Liang

4

Өздік жұмыс(жүйелік модельдеу)

Еркетай Томирис

9 months ago

Simulating virus infecting a body after entering, replicating inside living cells, and the body's immune response towards the virus

VirusModel

Hazwan Hafiz

Model description:

This model is designed to simulate the Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania by estimating several factors such as exposed population, infection rate, testing rate, recovery rate, death rate and immunity loss. The model also simulates the measures implemented by the government which will impact on the local infection and economy.

Assumption:

Government policies will reduce the mobility of the population as well as the infection. In addition, economic activities in the tourism and hospitality industry will suffer negative influences from the government measures. However, essential businesses like supermarkets will benefit from the health policies on the contrary.

Variables:

Infection rate, recovery rate, death rate, testing rate are the variables to the cases of Covid-19. On the other hand, the number of cases is also a variable to the government policies, which directly influences the number of exposed.

The GDP is dependent on the variables of economic activities. Nonetheless, the government’s lockdown measure has also become the variable to the economic activities.

Interesting insights:

Government policies are effective to curb infection by reducing the number of exposed when the case number is greater than 10. The economy becomes stagnant when the case spikes up but it climbs up again when the number of cases is under control.

Sample Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania by Yim Fong Ng (544885)

Chrissie Ng

Covid-19 in Germany

Мадияр Сейтмуратов

Environment, Health, & Business

13

This model bases on the SIR model aims to indicate the relationship between the lockdown policy of the government for combating with COVID-19 and the economic activity in Burnie Tasmania during the pandemic.

This model assumes that more COVID-19 cases will lead to the more serious lockdown policy of the local government, which indirectly affect the economic activities and economic growth. The primary reason is that the lockdown policy force people to stay at home and reduce the chance to work and consume.

The simulation trend of the model is that the economy will keep a steady increase when the serious government policy reduces the COVID-19 spreading speed rate.

COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie model by LUJIN 517217

LU JIN

Covid-19 model

Covid-19

sakon supakul

2бөлім 1 тапсырма

kuttykyz ergaliqyzy

3

Covid-19 Pandemie Modell

Kieran Rottonara

COVID-19 Model Indonesia

Emir Abe Putra Agastha

This Model was developed from the SEIR Model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered) and it predicts the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. This pandemic outbreak contributes to diverse rates including infection rate, death rates and recovery rate, government policies and its economic impacts.

Assumptions:

This model is driven by its determined rates, e.g., incubation rate, morality rate, test rate and immunity loss rate and its recovery rate.

Government policies are involved in fully vaccination rate, social distance, national border closure, travel, and business restriction which effect Burnie’s economy.

There are three economic entities dimensions in Burnie Island, we can tell that the pandemic has negative impact on Brick-and-Mortar enterprises and tourism business to some extent, whereas, e commercial business plays a crucial role to stimulate the regional economic activities during the COVID-19 period.

Interesting Insights:

The figure of susceptible changes significantly during the initial 3 weeks because of low recovery rate and high infection rate. On the other hand, the implementation and interventions of government policies is effective, because the number of patients who tested negative is increased and the majority of them release and go back home after medical follow-up.

Xueli Huang 501514, BMA708 Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania