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Modelo Epidemiológico para os Casos de Covid-19

Insigh autors: Luis Felipe - UFSM

Carlos Heitor - UFSM

Paulo Vilella - UFJF

Modelo UFSM

Paulo Villela

4

covid 19 China

Amir Utemisov

38

Explanation of the Model

This is a Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania which shows the government actions in response to the pandemic COVID-19 and its affects on the Economy. The government health policy changes depending on the reported cases, which is a dependent upon the testing rate.

Assumptions

Lockdown and travel ban were the main factor in government policy. It negatively impacts on the Economic growth as individuals are not going out which is directly affects the business around the world, in this insight 'Burnie'. This reduces the economic growth and the factors positively effecting economic growth such as Tourism.

Government policies has a negative impact on Exposer of individuals. Moreover, it also has a negative impact on chances of infection when exposed as well as other general infection rate.

Interesting Insight

There is a significant impact of test rating on COVID-19 outbreak. Higher rates increases the government involvement, which decreases cases as well as the total death.

In contrast, lower testing rates increase the death rate and cases.

Tourism which plays a avital role in Tasmanian Economy greatly affects the Economic Growth. The decline of Tourism in parts of Tasmania such as Burnie, would directly decrease the economy of Tasmania.

BMA 708, Assessment Tast 3: Complex System, Burnie COVID-19 outbreak, Diprina Shakya-519673

Diprina Shakya

6

Das SEIRS(D)-Modell zum Simulieren der COVID-19 - Epidemie.

SEIR - COVID-19 (v.1) von Remigiusz Kinas

Antonius Warmeling

COVID-19 in Brazil

Ayazhan Bekbergen

Pemodelan Covid-19 di Indonesia

Jihan Widya Candra

INTRODUCTION

This is a balanced loop model that demonstrates how COVID 19 outbreak in Burnie and the response of the government (e.g. by enforcing health policies: Lockdown; quarantine, non-necessary business closure; border closure) affect the local economy. This model has 13 positive loops and seven negative loops. Government response is dependent on the number of reported COVID-19 cases which in turn thought to be dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered from COVID 19 and dead. Economic activity is dependent on the economic growth rate, increased in online shopping, increased in unemployment, number of people who do not obey the rules, COVID 19 cases and health policies.

ASSUMPTIONS

· Both infection and economic growth is reduced by enforcing government policies

· However, the negative effect of government policies is reduced by the number of people who do not obey government health policies

· Govt policies are enforced when the reported COVID-19 case are 10 or greater.

· Number of COVID cases reported is dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered and dead.

· The higher number of COVID-19 cases have a negative effect on local economy. This phenomena is known as negative signalling.

· Government policies have a negative effect on economic activity because health policies limit both social and economic activities which directly or indirectly affect the economy in Burnie .

· This negative effect is somewhat reduced by the increase in online shopping and the number of people who do not obey heath rules.

INTERESTING INSIGHTS

The test ratings seem to play a vital role in controlling COVID-19 outbreak. Higher Rates of COVID testings decrease the number of COVID 19 deaths and number of infected. This is because higher rates of testing accelerate the government involvement (as the government intervention is triggered earlier, 10 COVID cases mark is reached earlier). Delaying the government intervention by reducing the COVID testing rates increases the death rates and number of infected.

Increased testing rates allow the figures (deaths, susceptible, infected) to reach a plateau quickly.

BMA708- Shakila Bethmage- 548351 - COVID 19 Outbreak in Burnie

Shakila Piyumi Perera Bethmage

SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Italy

Artyom Zainulin

Simulación Covid-19

Francisco Arenas

Somulacion clase 2, retroalimentación + y - , primer versión

Modelo Covid-19 Co

brow

A model of the relationship among covid-19 outbreak and government policy and economic impacts.

More susceptible people results in more infected people, and then more cases. A greater number of covid-19 cases triggers unemployment and financial crisis.

COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania

ke chang

Introduction:

This simulation model demonstrates the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie, Tasmania and how the corresponding government’s responses affect the spreading of Covid-19. Meanwhile, this model also shows how the economy in Burnie is influenced by the impacts of both Covid-19 and government policies.

Variables:

This simulation contains some relevant variables as follow:

Variables in Covid-19 outbreaks: (1) Infection rate, (2) Recovery rate, (3) Death rate, (4) Immunity loss rate

Variables in Government policies: (1) Vaccination rate, (2) Lockdown, (3) Travel ban, (4)Quarantine

Variables in Economy: (1) E-commerce business, (2) Unemployment rate, (3) Economic growth rate.

Assumption:

Government responses would be triggered when reported Covid-19 cases are at least 10.

The government policies reduce the spreading of Covid-19, but they would also limit economic development at the same time due to the negative impact of the policies on the economy is greater than the positive impact.

The increase in reported Covid-19 cases would negatively affect economic growth.

Interesting Insights:

The first finding is that the death number would keep increasing even though the infection rate has decreased, but with stronger government policies (such as implementing a coefficient over 25%), no more death numbers will occur caused by Covid-19.

The second finding is that as government policies limit business activities, with the increasing number of reported Covid-19 cases, economic growth will suffer a severe blow even if e-commerce grows, it can’t make up for this economic loss.

BMA 708 assignment 3 - simulation model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

Xuanze Liang

S-I-R covid-19 model

KRISTIAN SABATINO

The Covid-19 pandemic has introduced a variety of novel and intense difficulties, from dealing with the production network for individual defensive gear (PPE) to changing labor force ability to adapting to monetary misfortune. Amidst these difficulties lies a chance for medical services pioneers to more readily position and change their associations for an eventual fate of unusual amazement. To oversee limit, monetary misfortune, and care overhaul, medical services associations have settled on the basic choice to deliver or lessen labor force or to move numerous representatives to far off work, incorporating clinicians working with telehealth advances. (www.catalyst.nejm.org)

Reference:

Begun, J.W. PhD, Jiang, J.H, PhD,. (2020, October 9). NEJM Catalyst/Innovations in Care Delivery. Health Care Management During Covid-19: Insights from Complexity Science. Retrieved from https://catalyst.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/CAT.20.0505

Covid-19 Health Care Complexities and Variables

Taleisha Y. Alcorn

This model aims to show that how Tasmania government's Covid-19 policy can address the spread of the pandemic and in what way these policy can damage the economy.

This model assumes that if the COVID-19 cases are more than 10, the government will take action such as quarantine and lockdown at the area. These policy can indirectly affect the local economy in many different way. At the same time, strict policy may be essential for combating Covid-19.

From the simulation of the model, we can clearly see that the economy of Burine will be steady increase when government successfully reduces the COVID-19 cased and make it spreading slower.

Interesting finding: In this pandemic, the testing rate and the recovery rate are important to stop Covid-19 spreading. Once the cases of Covid-19 less than 10, the government might stop intervention and the economy of Burnie will back to normal.

Model of Covid-19 outbreaks at Burnie (Yingchao Yang,503757)

Mika yang

AT-3

Xuanze Liang

4

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

We add simple containment meassures that affect two paramenters, the Susceptible population and the rate to become infected.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

The questions that we want to answer in this kind of models are not the shape of the curves, that are almost known from the beginning, but, when this happens, and the amplitude of the shapes. This is crucial, since in the current circumstance implies the collapse of certain resources, not only healthcare.

The validation process hence becomes critical, and allows to estimate the different parameters of the model from the data we obtain. This simulation approach allows to obtain somethings that is crucial to make decisions, the causality. We can infer this from the assumptions that are implicit on the model, and from it we can make decisions to improve the system behavior.

Yes, simulation works with causality and Flows diagrams is one of the techniques we have to draw it graphically, but is not the only one. On https://sdlps.com/projects/documentation/1009 you can review soon the same model but represented in Specification and Description Language.

SEIRD 02: COVID-19 spread with containment measures

Pengcheng Chen

3

Demo_Group3_COVID-19

Kathryn Liddle

COVID-19 в Бразилии за 2020-2024 года (динамика заболеваний)

Kamal Lisa

last month

Evolution of Covid-19 in Brazil:

A System Dynamics Approach

Villela, Paulo (2020)
paulo.villela@engenharia.ufjf.br

This model is based on Crokidakis, Nuno. (2020). Data analysis and modeling of the evolution of COVID-19 in Brazil. For more details see full paper here.

Evolução da Covid-19 no Brasil

Paulo Villela

A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.

Covid-19 in USA

Марина Якимова

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

Clone of COVID-19 spread

Julia Fernández Benavente

5

[The Model of COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak in Burnie, TAS]

A model of COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from the government with the impact on the local economy and medical supply.

It is assumed that the government policy is triggered and rely on reported COVID-19 cases when the confirmed cases are 10 or less.

Interesting insights

The infection rate will decline if the government increase the testing ranges, meanwhile, the more confirmed cases will increase the pressure on hospital capacity and generate more demand for medical resources, which will promote government policy intervention to narrow the demand gap and affect economic performance by increasing hospital construction with financial investment.

The Model of COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak in Burnie, TAS

Yuxi Wang

Өздік жұмыс(жүйелік модельдеу)

Еркетай Томирис

8 months ago