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spread model of COVID-19

Introduction:

This simulation model demonstrates the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie, Tasmania and how the corresponding government’s responses affect the spreading of Covid-19. Meanwhile, this model also shows how the economy in Burnie is influenced by the impacts of both Covid-19 and government policies.

Variables:

This simulation contains some relevant variables as follow:

Variables in Covid-19 outbreaks: (1) Infection rate, (2) Recovery rate, (3) Death rate, (4) Immunity loss rate

Variables in Government policies: (1) Vaccination rate, (2) Lockdown, (3) Travel ban, (4)Quarantine

Variables in Economy: (1) E-commerce business, (2) Unemployment rate, (3) Economic growth rate.

Assumption:

Government responses would be triggered when reported Covid-19 cases are at least 10.

The government policies reduce the spreading of Covid-19, but they would also limit economic development at the same time due to the negative impact of the policies on the economy is greater than the positive impact.

The increase in reported Covid-19 cases would negatively affect economic growth.

Interesting Insights:

The first finding is that the death number would keep increasing even though the infection rate has decreased, but with stronger government policies (such as implementing a coefficient over 25%), no more death numbers will occur caused by Covid-19.

The second finding is that as government policies limit business activities, with the increasing number of reported Covid-19 cases, economic growth will suffer a severe blow even if e-commerce grows, it can’t make up for this economic loss.

BMA 708 assignment 3 - simulation model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

Xuanze Liang

COVID-19

Gabriel Quevedo

Systemigram Model Building Exercise (COVID-19)

Josiah Best

Germany COVID-19

sanzhgod

Explanation of the Model

This is a Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania which shows the government actions in response to the pandemic COVID-19 and its affects on the Economy. The government health policy changes depending on the reported cases, which is a dependent upon the testing rate.

Assumptions

Lockdown and travel ban were the main factor in government policy. It negatively impacts on the Economic growth as individuals are not going out which is directly affects the business around the world, in this insight 'Burnie'. This reduces the economic growth and the factors positively effecting economic growth such as Tourism.

Government policies has a negative impact on Exposer of individuals. Moreover, it also has a negative impact on chances of infection when exposed as well as other general infection rate.

Interesting Insight

There is a significant impact of test rating on COVID-19 outbreak. Higher rates increases the government involvement, which decreases cases as well as the total death.

In contrast, lower testing rates increase the death rate and cases.

Tourism which plays a avital role in Tasmanian Economy greatly affects the Economic Growth. The decline of Tourism in parts of Tasmania such as Burnie, would directly decrease the economy of Tasmania.

BMA 708, Assessment Tast 3: Complex System, Burnie COVID-19 outbreak, Diprina Shakya-519673

Diprina Shakya

6

Evolution of Covid-19 in Brazil:

A System Dynamics Approach

Villela, Paulo (2020)
villela.paulo@gmail.com

This model is based on Crokidakis, Nuno. (2020). Data analysis and modeling of the evolution of COVID-19 in Brazil. For more details see full paper here.

Evolution of Covid-19 in Brazil: A System Dynamics Approach

Paulo Villela

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Systemigram COVID-19

jo588461

3 months ago

Environment, Health, & Business

Covid-19 Systemigram

Christopher Phillips

This Model was developed from the SEIR Model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered) and it predicts the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. This pandemic outbreak contributes to diverse rates including infection rate, death rates and recovery rate, government policies and its economic impacts.

Assumptions:

This model is driven by its determined rates, e.g., incubation rate, morality rate, test rate and immunity loss rate and its recovery rate.

Government policies are involved in fully vaccination rate, social distance, national border closure, travel, and business restriction which effect Burnie’s economy.

There are three economic entities dimensions in Burnie Island, we can tell that the pandemic has negative impact on Brick-and-Mortar enterprises and tourism business to some extent, whereas, e commercial business plays a crucial role to stimulate the regional economic activities during the COVID-19 period.

Interesting Insights:

The figure of susceptible changes significantly during the initial 3 weeks because of low recovery rate and high infection rate. On the other hand, the implementation and interventions of government policies is effective, because the number of patients who tested negative is increased and the majority of them release and go back home after medical follow-up.

Xueli Huang 501514, BMA708 Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

XUELI HUANG

Covid-19 in Germany

Мадияр Сейтмуратов

Соңғы жұмыс

Досалиева Алина

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus

Clone of MscT CSE - SEIR Infectious Disease Model for COVID-19

Zakaria Motairek

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Marcus Fechner

PROYECTO COVID-19

Jesús Fernández

Турциядағы COVID-19 Агенттік модель

JET I Nurzhigitkyzy Zhannur

2 months ago

This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.

It is assumed that the Government intervention is triggered when the COVID-19 case is equal to or more than 10.

Government intervention - lock down the state, suppress the development of COVID-19 effectively. It is related to most of people stay at home to reduce the exposure in public area.

On the other hand, it also bring the economy of Burnie in the recession, as no tourists, no dining out activities and decrease in money spending in the city.

Burnie COVID-19 outbreaks and economic impacts_Pui Chu Daisy Cheung 524767

Pui Chu Daisy Cheung

7

Агентская модель болезни COVID-19 в США

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COVID-19 cases in Barangay Candawaga, Municipality of Rizal

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tingkat interaksi fisik : 1-10 orang per hari
penerapan prokes 0%-100%
penanganan pemerintah : minim (<40%) cukup (40%-70%) baik (>70%)

covid-19

Nismara Chandra Herdiputra

Өзіндік жұмыс (3-бөлімге)

Өзіндік жұмыс Агент

anel bahtybek

24 7 months ago

Системная динамика COVID-19 в США

Влад Кашин

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This model aims to show that how Tasmania government's Covid-19 policy can address the spread of the pandemic and in what way these policy can damage the economy.

This model assumes that if the COVID-19 cases are more than 10, the government will take action such as quarantine and lockdown at the area. These policy can indirectly affect the local economy in many different way. At the same time, strict policy may be essential for combating Covid-19.

From the simulation of the model, we can clearly see that the economy of Burine will be steady increase when government successfully reduces the COVID-19 cased and make it spreading slower.

Interesting finding: In this pandemic, the testing rate and the recovery rate are important to stop Covid-19 spreading. Once the cases of Covid-19 less than 10, the government might stop intervention and the economy of Burnie will back to normal.

Model of Covid-19 outbreaks at Burnie (Yingchao Yang,503757)

Mika yang

New SEIR COVID-19

Kelompok1

31