This model contains three parts, the first part stimulates the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in Burnie; the second part describes possible government policies on pandemic control; and the third part examines the possible negative impact on economy growth from those policies.
Assumptions:
1. The state boarder has already been closed and all new arrivals in Burnie need to enter a fixed period of quarantine. And the quarantine rate measures the strength of the government policy on quarantine (such as length and method).
2. Patient zero refers to the initial number of undetected virus carriers in the community.
3. Government policies such as social distancing, compulsory mask and lock down could effectively reduce community’s exposure to the virus.
4. Social distancing and compulsory mask will be triggered when COVID-19 cases reach and beyond 10 and lock down will be triggered when cases reach and beyond 1000.
4. High vaccine rate, on the other hand, could effectively reduce the exposed people’s chance of getting infected.
5. Only when vaccine rate reaches 0.6 and beyond, then the spread of COVID-19 will be significantly slowed.
6. Vaccine can’t 100% prevent the infection of the virus.
7.The infected people will need to be tested so that they could be counted as COVID-19 cases and the test rate decides the percentage of infected people being tested.
8. After people recover, there are chances of them losing immunity and the immunity lost rate measures that.
9. The COVID-19 cases could also be detected at quarantine facilities, and the quarantine process will effectively reduce the Infection and exposure rate.
10. Social distancing and compulsory mask wearing are considered as light restrictions in this model and will have less impact on both supply and demand side, and lockdown is considered as heavy restriction which will have strong negative impact on economy growth in this model.
11. In this model, light restrictions will have more negative impacts on the demand side compared to the supply side.
12. In this model, both supply side and demand side will power the economy growth.
Interest hints:
The vaccine could significantly reduce the spread of COVID-19 and effectively reduce the number of COVID-19 cases.
The number of the COVID-19 cases will eventually be stabilized when the number of susceptible is running out in a community (reached community immunity).
Quarantine could slightly reduce the cases numbers, but the most effective way is to reduce the number of new arrivals.
