A small change in one variable can have a marked impact on multiple variables. Run the model [quits change] = 0  and consider the output. What happens if  you change [quits change] = 5. Run the model to find out. Was the change what you expected?

There are limits to what one can infer from a qualitative model.

Introduce the concept of modeling and simulation.

This is a model depicting the interactions of the Aesop's Fable "The Boy Who Cried Wolf."

This common archetype of systems that include relapse or recidivism allows exploration of the unintended effects of increasing upstream capacity and swamping downstream capacity. The increase in the relapse rate eventually returns to swamp upstream capacity as well. A social welfare example, based on a TANF case study, from How Small System Dynamics Models Can Help the Policy Process. N. Ghaffarzadegan, J. Lyneis, GP Richardson. System Dynamics Review 27,1 (2011) 22-44 Conference version at http://bit.ly/HlxtZj

Based on a sound realization of reality we need an effective approach to dealing with situations which promotes the requisite understanding to develop a strategy that deals appropriately with the situation. A strategy which also is explicitly designed to minimize unintended consequences and puts in place responses to them should they arise.

Introduce the concept of modeling and simulation.

Simplest Innovation diffusion model from Sterman's Business Dynamics Ch 9

This model is derived from the paper "Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that Never Happened: Creating and Sustaining Process Improvement" by Nelson P. Repenning and John D Sterman. See Insight 1899 for a simulation of this model and SysNet for a Video.

All you wanted to do was put a bird feeder in your yard to attract birds and make for a more pleasant morning. And...

Little Red Riding Hood walking through the woods to Grandma's house. How long will it take?

If we pay close attention to our actions and the typical outcomes of those actions it would be evident that there are frequently occurring patterns that develop. And there is a relation between the patterns.

Simplest Innovation diffusion model from Sterman's Business Dynamics Ch 9

The interaction of a population of Moose and Wolves.

Yesterday's actions are responsible for the world we experience today. And today's actions are responsible for the world that we will experience tomorrow. The "Creating the Future" model is intended to provide a better sense of the common process associated with the unexpected unfolding of the future..

To develop insights regarding a situation of interest there are a number of things should be considered to ensure a view of the relevant influences.

While these pictures represent very different things there is a common essence.

To develop insights regarding a situation of interest there are a number of things should be considered to ensure a view of the relevant influences.

Introduce the concept of modeling and simulation.

CLD of Eric Wolstenholme Syst. Dyn. Rev. 23, 371–389, (2007) See IM-1008 for a stock flow version.

This is a more Traditional Career Model of how education works, with an increased lifetime earnings from going to college. The following are links to the other two models in the series.

• Loan Cost Model
• Savings Model

Introduce the concept of modeling and simulation.

The Home Heating System can be used to demonstrate how we get caught in dilemmas and become victims of ourselves.

Clone of IM-752 map for working simulation model This model is derived from "Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that Never Happened: Creating and Sustaining Process Improvement" by Nelson P. Repenning and John D Sterman. An expanded map is at IM-1918.