The statement that there can be no economic activity
without energy and that fossil fuels are
finite contrasts with the fact that money is not finite and can be created by governments
via their central banks at zero marginal cost whenever needed.
An important fact about COAL, GAS and OIL (especially when produced via fracking) is that their net energy ratios are falling rapidly.
In other words the energy needed to extract a given quantity of fossil fuels is
constantly increasing. The falling ratio 'EROI' (Energy Return on Energy Invested ) provides
yet another warning that we can no longer rely on fossil fuels to power our
economies. In 1940 it took the energy of only one barrel of oil to extract 100. Today the energy of 1 barrel of oil will yield only 15. We cannot wait until the ratio falls to 1/1 before we invest seriously in alternative sources of energy, because by then industrial society as we know it doday will have ceased to exist. An EROI of 1:1 means that it takes the energy of one barrel of oil to extract one barrel of oil - oil production would simply stop!
Clone of Energy and Economic Activity
Two households with PV systems and Electric Vehicles, sharing a battery and connected to the grid. What are the advantages?
Clone of Vehicle to Grid Simulation
Two households with PV systems and Electric Vehicles, sharing a battery and connected to the grid. What are the advantages?
Clone of Vehicle to Grid Simulation
The statement that there can be no economic activity
without energy and that fossil fuels are
finite contrasts with the fact that money is not finite and can be created by governments
via their central banks at zero marginal cost whenever needed.
An important fact about COAL, GAS and OIL (even
when produced via fracking) is that their net energy ratios are falling rapidly.
In other words the energy needed to extract a given quantity of fossil fuels is
constantly increasing. This ratio (Energy Invested on Energy Returned - EIOER) provides
yet another warning that we can no longer rely on fossil fuels to power our
economies. We cannot wait until the ratio falls to 1/1 before we invest seriously in alternative sources of energy, because by then industrial society as we know it doday will have ceased to exist.
PS: A link between growth in energy consumption and GDP
growth is clearly illustrated on slide 13 of Gail Tverberg's presentaion
entitled ''Ooop! The world economy depends on an energy-related bubble''. In
fact, the slide shows that growth in energy consumption usually precedes GDP
growth.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/oops-debt-bubble-10_30_15.pdf
Clone of Energy and Economic Activity
Two households with PV systems and Electric Vehicles, sharing a battery and connected to the grid. What are the advantages?
Clone of Vehicle to Grid Simulation
This simulation examines carrying capacity, based on a given cropland input in acres.
New York's Cropland Carrying Capacity
Trying to show the drop in Barrels of Oil per day as the number of Electric Vehicles on the road increases.
Basic EV loop
A simple simulation of a house losing heat at a rate based on indoor vs. outdoor temperature difference, and turning a heating system on and off to maintain indoor temperature.
Clone of House Heating
Attempt to clarify the differences in the energy balance and carbohydrate insulin obesity models described in Speakman and Hall's 2021 science article See also Nature Metabolism Obesity Causal Model Differences 2024 article and insight
Body weight regulation models
Charging Electric Vehicles will have an impact in the electricity network infrastructure. What will be the influence at district level?
Clone of Electric Vehicles in District: Agent Based Modeling
Clone of PA_if_6_Carvajal_Osorio_Tamayo
Buying and storing electricity when it is cheap, and selling it when it is expensive. What are the benefits, both public and private?
Clone of Smart Grid: Electricity storage and variable energy pricing
PA_if_6_Carvajal_Osorio_Tamayo_aja
Análise comparativa e econômica de diferentes tipos de biomassa e óleos vegetais brasileiros para produção de alimento, ração animal e de biocombustível e Agroenergia com o estudo de sua Rota Química.
Gestao tecnologica de sistema integrado alimento - energia
Charging Electric Vehicles will have an impact in the electricity network infrastructure. What will be the influence at district level?
Clone of Electric Vehicles in District: Agent Based Modeling
Two households with PV systems and Electric Vehicles, sharing a battery and connected to the grid. What are the advantages?
Clone of Vehicle to Grid Simulation
energy supply and losses for a house
Using a hydrogen storage to remain energy-independent over the year
Clone of Green village simulation
Method with the feedback loops
Dynamic_Model_System dynamics approach to Isernia CBA
THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.
THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED
Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.
Clone of 2017 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
This is the original model version (v1.0) with default "standard run" parameter set: see detailed commentary here and here. As of 2 September 2015, ongoing development has now shifted to this version of the model.
The significance of reduced energy return on energy invested (EROI) in the transition from fossil fuel to renewable primary energy sources is often disputed by both renewable energy proponents and mainstream economists. This model illustrates the impact of EROI in large-scale energy transition using a system dynamics approach. The variables of primary interest here are: 1) net energy available to "the rest of the economy" as renewable penetration increases [Total final energy services out to the economy]; and 2) the size of the energy sector as a proportion of overall economic activity, treating energy use as a very rough proxy for size [Energy services ratio].
This model aggregates energy supply in the form of fuels and electricity as a single variable, total final energy services, and treats the global economy as a single closed system.
The model includes all major incumbent energy sources, and assumes a transition to wind, PV, hydro and nuclear generated electricity, plus biomass electricity and fuels. Hydro, biomass and nuclear growth rates are built into the model from the outset, and wind and PV emplacement rates respond to the built-in retirement rates for fossil energy sources, by attempting to make up the difference between the historical maximum total energy services out to the global economy, and the current total energy services out. Intermittency of PV and wind are compensated via Li-ion battery storage. Note, however, that seasonal variation of PV is not fully addressed i.e. PV is modeled using annual and global average parameters. For this to have anything close to real world validity, this would require that all PV capacity is located in highly favourable locations in terms of annual average insolation, and that energy is distributed from these regions to points of end use. The necessary distribution infrastructure is not included in the model at this stage.
It is possible to explore the effect of seasonal variation with PV assumed to be distributed more widely by de-rating capacity factor and increasing the autonomy period for storage.
This
version of the model takes values for emplaced capacities of
conventional sources (i.e. all energy sources except wind and PV) as
exogenous inputs, based on data generated from earlier
endogenously-generated emplaced capacities (for which emplacement rates as a proportion of existing installed capacity were the primary exogenous input).
Clone of Energy transition to lower EROI sources (v1.0)
This simulation examines carrying capacity, based on a given cropland input in acres, assuming a rate up to 14 people per acre per year (roughly that produced by corn or potatoes).
Maine's Cropland Carrying Capacity
Clone of PA_if_6_Carvajal_Osorio_Tamayo