The model starts in 1900. In the year 2000 you get the chance to set a new emission target and nominal time to reach it. Your aim is to have atmospheric CO2 stabilise at about 400 ppmv in 2100. From Sterman, John D. (2008) Risk Communication on Climate: Mental Models and Mass Balance. Science 322 (24 October): 532-533. Older version of IM-9283.
Climate Stabilization Task - Older
WIP Patient Flow improvement strategies for a City Hospital with 3 years historical data and two year planning horizon. Built after a Generic Teaching Hospital Model IM-10346 A simplified stock flow map is at IM-399
Hospital Seasonal ED and Ward Flow Improvement
Learning THread for hybrid models including Grimm's ODD and Nate Osgood's ABM Modeling Process and Courses
Dynamic Models Learning Content
From fighting lions (fight or flight) to fighting feedbacks in complex systems. A single person cutting the Gordian knot to the dynamic complexity of rubik's cube. Think of multiple players with multiple misperceptions of the faces on the cube and conflicting goals about what the desired solution is. Worse still, without an accepted framework we dont even know if it's a cube or another structure. See also policy resistance IM-697
Fighting complexity
Relationship between major risk factors, and major diseases
Risk factors
Unfolding story on social effects of stress and abuse, based on integrating cycles of alienation, emotional regulation in brain development, addiction, and violence/abuse, inspired by Harry Burns IHI London 2015 keynote video on Glasgow alienation due to housing estates. Also Peggy Thoits 2010 Stress and Health article
Stress Emotion and Control
Suicide Prevention stock flow and feedback map with unfolding story, revised with ideation, intent and lethality and multiple attempts (according to Mark Heffernan's ithink model May 2016) and an initial person as agent centred view added See Initial version and next version 3
Suicide Dynamics 2
From Margaret Stringfellow's PhD thesis from Nancy Leveson's Engineering a Safer World
Process Control Structure
Childhood obesity map for state prevention. Extended at CCP 5 risk factors IM See also Christine's private version
Clone of Premier's priority - childhood overweight and obesity
Clone of Clone 4of IM 27348, of JPS IM-27150 of original JPS IM-14117 See reference in diagram notes. WIP for Environment part of primary care regional model
Clone 5 The Ecology of Medical Care
Effect of rewards on the selection promotion and retirement of scholars in universities. Based on Geoffrey Brennan's Selection and the Currency of Reward chapter10 in The Theory of Institutional Design ed. RG Goodwin Cambridge University Press 1996 See also IM-2016
Scholars and Expedients 1
Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.
The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.
SEIRD 01: COVID-19 spread
WIP Ideas from Science Special Issue May 2014
The Science of Inequality
Adapted from Fig.5, from Ana V Diez Roux (2011) Complex Systems Thinking May Help Us Transcend Current Impasses in Health Disparities Research Am J Public Health 2011;101 1627-1634 http://ajph.aphapublications.org/cgi/content/abstract/101/9/1627?etoc
Area and Individual Health Factor interactions
The Dynamics of Human Service Delivery General Theory from the Book by Levin, Roberts, Hirsch et al. Ballinger 1975 ISBN 0-88410-132-0 See IM-621 for rich picture version
Human Service Delivery Dynamics
Agent-Based Model Covid-19
Based on Ransohoff DF, McNaughton Collins M, Fowler FJ. Why is prostate cancer screening so common when the evidence is so uncertain? A system without negative feedback. Am J Med. 2002;113:663-7. See IM-15991 for a generic Stock Flow Map
Prostate Cancer Screening
This simulation is far from complete.
Persebaran Corona
WIP Understanding pathways to observed effects complex causation Pathways Moving to Opportunity NYC example from Nate Osgood's big data lecture youtube video Feb 2017 Sydney.
Potential and actual causal mechanisms
WIP Simplified Patient Flow map of features in a SD simulation model of performance of a City Hospital over 5 years. Built after a Regional 20 year planning model IM-10290 The simulation is a large ithink model built by Mark Heffernan
City Hospital Performance over 5 years
WIP for Effects of Senior Staff Weekend Rostering on ED Flows. Two areas Map simplified later to no specific areas Simulation in IM-11079
ED Weekend Flows Senior Roster
The dynamics of methadone treatment for intravenous opioid users. The major flows in this study were people cycling between being on methadone and off treatment. This is a minimal model of the insights from the more detailed modelling project described in Monograph pdf
Methadone Treatment Dynamics
Simplest ED Model for Weekend ED Performance with 1 ED area IM-11079 Ward net discharges are extended with Ward and Waitlist inflow and outflow details (informed by IM-7981) WIP
ED Flows extended to Ward and Waitlist Flows
From Greenhalgh et al article 2017 jimr Beyond Adoption: A New Framework for Theorizing and Evaluating Nonadoption, Abandonment, and Challenges to the Scale-Up, Spread, and Sustainability of Health and Care Technologies
NASSS Technology Adoption Framework
