Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.
The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.
SEIRD 01: COVID-19 spread
Rich Picture Version of Insight 386 The Dynamics of Human Service Delivery General Theory from the Book by Levin, Roberts, Hirsch et al. Ballinger 1976 ISBN 0-88410-132-0. See also Services Intro IM
Human Service Delivery Dynamics rich picture
Gavan Lintern's Decision Ladder of Cognitive states and processes associated with the Ladder of Inference IM-351
Decision Ladder
The Dynamics of Human Service Delivery General Theory from the Book by Levin, Roberts, Hirsch et al. Ballinger 1975 ISBN 0-88410-132-0 See IM-621 for rich picture version
Human Service Delivery Dynamics
This model shows the Pharmaceutical New Drug Pipeline based on drug release, approval and patent expiry. This pipeline is then linked to patients switching from older drugs to newer drugs based on proven indications and marketing (indication creep). Based on work by Mark Heffernan on the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme for drug subsidy.Conference paper and Larger ithink model
Pharmaceutical Pipeline and Medicines Use
The model starts in 1900. In the year 2000 you get the chance to set a new emission target and nominal time to reach it. Your aim is to have atmospheric CO2 stabilise at about 400 ppmv in 2100. From Sterman, John D. (2008) Risk Communication on Climate: Mental Models and Mass Balance. Science 322 (24 October): 532-533. Older version of IM-9283.
Climate Stabilization Task - Older
Sources of Policy Resistance. From article Sterman, John D. Learning from Evidence in a Complex World Am J Public Health 2006 96: 505-514. See also fighting complexity IM-1955
Policy Resistance
WIP for regional integration based on NHPA and IHPA activities in Australia
National Health Performance and Pricing
Cardiovascular disease dynamics
Level of biological organization linking cell level division and population level evolution
Biology levels and genetics
Unfolding story on social effects of stress and abuse, based on integrating cycles of alienation, emotional regulation in brain development, addiction, and violence/abuse, inspired by Harry Burns IHI London 2015 keynote video on Glasgow alienation due to housing estates. Also Peggy Thoits 2010 Stress and Health article
Stress Emotion and Control
OASIS SOA Reference Architecture represents views from the perspectives of using, building, owning and managing the means for exchanging value, particpants claims of ownership and the rules of engagement. From http://bit.ly/wpI1yo
SOA Reference Architecture
Effect of rewards on the selection promotion and retirement of scholars in universities. Based on Geoffrey Brennan's Selection and the Currency of Reward chapter10 in The Theory of Institutional Design ed. RG Goodwin Cambridge University Press 1996 See also IM-2016
Scholars and Expedients 1
Revisesuicide_prevention
intermediate version according to Mark heffernan's ithink model Aug 2017 focussed on regional mental health services Note private WIP version of this is at
IM-77395 (private)See also Suicide dynamics 4 WIP insight
Clone of Suicide Dynamics 3
This is the Concept map at IM-735 modified to reflect the learning after system dynamics modeling at IM-393,
Thermostat Concept Map 2
WIP From zenker 2007 article PLoS Computational Biology From Inverse Problems in Mathematical Physiology to Quantitative Differential Diagnoses
Cardiovascular Model
WIP based on Choice modelling and Mark Paich's Book and NZ work focus on Pre-ED Presentation choices, with ED and Post-ED care. Extended based on IM-998 4 hour rule context. Can be replicated to add interventions, as in IM-6167. See IM-9178 for Addition of After hours 'as is' and 'to be' flow models for Medicare Locals
ED Presentation Choices Context
Translated from Hormone.stm in Dynamic Modeling in the Health Sciences James L hargrove, Springer 1998, Ch 24 p255-261, by Mark Heffernan.
Glucose Insulin Model
Fig 4.1 p 86 of Beyond Pleasure and Pain: How Motivation Works Book by E Tory Higgins OUP (2011).
Illustration of the relations among variables that contribute to the value experience. See also Effectiveness IM-2806
The Value Experience
Critical Systems Heuristics Boundary critique from Ulrich See also Critical Systems Thinking Insight
Critical Systems Heuristics
WIP Ideas from Science Special Issue May 2014
The Science of Inequality
Expansion of IM-24317 for adding other funding insights Im-633 and 636 . See also IM-57110 contrasting economic drivers of mental health with other health care based on JHPPL David Mechanic 2016 issue articles, esp Glied
Political Economy of Health Services 2
Clone of IM-6072 which is a WIP based on Choice modelling and Mark Paich's Book and NZ work focus on Pre-ED Presentation choices, with ED and Post-ED care. Addition of After hours 'as is' and 'to be' flow models for Medicare Locals
Clone of ED Presentation Choices Context
From p592 Doyle F et al.(2007) Journal of Process Control 17 571-594
abstract
Heparin Kinetics
