Based on diagrams in the NAP 2015 Report Improving diagnosis in health care process Compare with IM-885 Clinical judgment to provide context and and Decision Ladder IM-689 to provide decision process task detail

From Werner Ulrich's JORS Articles Operational research and critical systems thinking – an integrated perspective. Part 1: OR as applied systems thinking. Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication (14 December 2011). and Part 2 :OR as argumentative practice.

See also insight on Boundary Critique

Hannon and Ruth Modeling Dynamic Biological Systems p67

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

Shows the causal loop diagram of the flow of organs from donors to recipients to explore places to improve the transplant rate

Kidney replacement therapy dynamics: causal loop diagram of the kidney dialysis and transplant model extended to Chronic Kidney Disease from MOTOHASHI and NISHI Int. J. Epidemiology1991; 20: 1032-1036

A basic conceptual model to evaluate Government regulation of the food industry on community health and health & social costs. Would regulation have a negative impact on the overall budget in the short and longer term?

This is the Concept map at IM-735  modified to reflect the learning after system dynamics modeling at IM-393, 

Addition of glucagon hormone action to control glucose homeostasis extended from IM-586

Addition of Incident Reporting and Prevention Interventions to a simple error chain of medication errors for patients in hospital IM-10113 

An adaptation of the URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011) Conference version at http://bit.ly/HlxtZj  and LA Alfeld and AK Graham's Introduction to Urban Dynamics 1974 p 195.

An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/

A general model of flows between hospital and the community with workshop elements. See also IM-3200 for focus on frequent presenters with mental health issues

Click +View Story on Bottom Left to unfold his wide view of Emergency care patient flows IM-6072 used as context to add confounders and potential indirect effects. See also IM-1010 for hospital fixes that fail, wiki for general Systems Archetypes and wiki for Leverage Points (There is also a health leverage points WIP wiki page)

A stock flow structure used to show the unit of analysis, scope of study and context of the ED Four hour rule project, cloned from im-399 monthly flows

Version of Suicide 3 insight   with known and unknown splits

The effects of subsidies and incentives for private health insurance on the mix of public and private hospital use. The central role of adverse selection/moral hazard on private health insurance sustainability. See also updated version around 2017

Level of biological organization linking cell level division and population level evolution

Modified from Mark Paich et al. 's book: Pharmaceutical product strategy. Fig 4.7 p 69. It formed the basis of a hypertension intervention discussion Aug-Sept 2010

From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

WIP Conceptual map of initial scope of the effects of the ED 4 hour rule based on June WA Teleconference. See also the addition of unintended consequences at IM-7775 and the potential wider context map in IM-6167. For a simulation see IM-8237

Dynamics of Emergency Department Crowding Initial View from the waiting room. Follows from IM-369 Sim and IM-340 CLD. Proceed to IM-349 

WIP AnyLogic Hybrid Model methods and examples taken from Nate Osgood's Bootcamps around 2017

DIabetes incidence from population inflow, with undiagnosed and diagnosed stocks

A work in progress model for ED daily average flows based on reported statistics by triage category with all triage categories aggregated. Based on a hospital performance report from  http://www.bhi.nsw.gov.au/publications/hospital_quarterly_3