Shows the causal loop diagram of the flow of organs from donors to recipients to explore places to improve the transplant rate

Addition of Incident Reporting and Prevention Interventions to a simple error chain of medication errors for patients in hospital IM-10113 

Click +View Story on Bottom Left to unfold his wide view of Emergency care patient flows IM-6072 used as context to add confounders and potential indirect effects. See also IM-1010 for hospital fixes that fail, wiki for general Systems Archetypes and wiki for Leverage Points (There is also a health leverage points WIP wiki page)

Shows the flow of organs from donors to recipients to explore places to improve the transplant rate

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

Regulation of resource allocation to service in response to service quality. A non-price-mediated resource allocation system. From Sterman JD Business Dynamics p172 Fig 5-27

WIP Conceptual map of initial scope of the effects of the ED 4 hour rule based on June WA Teleconference. See also the addition of unintended consequences at IM-7775 and the potential wider context map in IM-6167. For a simulation see IM-8237

WIP From  zenker 2007 article PLoS Computational Biology From Inverse Problems in Mathematical Physiology to Quantitative Differential Diagnoses

A general model of flows between hospital and the community with workshop elements. See also IM-3200 for focus on frequent presenters with mental health issues

Modified from Mark Paich et al. 's book: Pharmaceutical product strategy. Fig 4.7 p 69. It formed the basis of a hypertension intervention discussion Aug-Sept 2010

A stock flow structure used to show the unit of analysis, scope of study and context of the ED Four hour rule project, cloned from im-399 monthly flows

WIP detail of ED Clinical processes with focus on Stabilising and Deciding how to Admit or Discharge safely, the Disposition decision. For more aggregated views see IM-8237 for flows and IM-6913 for Physician Delegate Agent Interactions

Kidney replacement therapy dynamics: causal loop diagram of the kidney dialysis and transplant model extended to Chronic Kidney Disease from MOTOHASHI and NISHI Int. J. Epidemiology1991; 20: 1032-1036

Addition of glucagon hormone action to control glucose homeostasis extended from IM-586

From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

Version of Suicide 3 insight   with known and unknown splits

From Stewart Brand see Wikipedia Also called Shearing Layers

From PLOS One Article April 2012 Worni, M et al System Dynamics to Model the Unintended Consequences of Denying Payment for Venous Thromboembolism after Total Knee Arthroplasty

This is the Concept map at IM-735  modified to reflect the learning after system dynamics modeling at IM-393, 

The effects of subsidies and incentives for private health insurance on the mix of public and private hospital use. The central role of adverse selection/moral hazard on private health insurance sustainability. See also updated version around 2017

A basic conceptual model to evaluate Government regulation of the food industry on community health and health & social costs. Would regulation have a negative impact on the overall budget in the short and longer term?

DIabetes incidence from population inflow, with undiagnosed and diagnosed stocks

A work in progress model for ED daily average flows based on reported statistics by triage category with all triage categories aggregated. Based on a hospital performance report from  http://www.bhi.nsw.gov.au/publications/hospital_quarterly_3 

WIP based on Raafat Zaini's 2015 Triple Helix article and PhD Colloquium and ISDC 2013  university growth paper ithink models as a starting point for health care systems science modelling growth dynamics