Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus 

Recently, a new article published on <Science> explores the feasibility of living with the current Coronavirus in the long-term through mathematical modeling. Since either complete eradication or herd immunity is difficult to achieve in the short term, this work may provide useful and helpful public health policy implications in real environment.

Based on the model developed in the article, I translate it into a dynamic model here, so you may gain useful insights or check your own assumptions when simulating.

If no attempt is made to eradicate SARS-CoV-2 it will eventually become endemic, ineradicable, at a high never-ending cost to world in terms of economic growth, human health and lives. The current strategy adopted by most governments is to impose  restrictive measures when the virus threatens to overwhelm hospital services and to relax these restrictions as this danger recedes. This is short-sighted. It cannot eliminate the highly infectious delta variant, which has an estimated R0-value of between 6 & 9. Periodic lockdowns will be hard to avoid in the future.

However, eradication is possible, herd immunity can be achieved quickly worldwide, reducing the R0 permanently to below 1, which will lead to the disappearance of the virus. Critical in achieving this is Ivermectin, a medicine that is cheap,  readily available and can be manufactured by most countries. A recent meta study has shown that Ivermectin, prophylactically employed, can prevent infection with the virus  by 86 % on average – very similar to the efficacy of vaccines. Eradication will require employment of all the instruments shown in the graph: future generations do not have to live with this plague.