This model can be used to investigate how government interventions affect transmission and mortality associated with COVID-19 during an outbreak, and how these interventions impact on the economic activities in Burnie, Tasmania.

Assumptions can be made that effective government intervention can reduce the number of people infected, whereas the local economy is severely impacted.

Insights:

1. When COVID-19 case are more than 10, government policy will be triggered.

2. Testing rate is very crucial to understanding the spread of the pandemic and responding appropriately.

Jalyen T.

John C.

Modified by Rio dan Pras

The model stimulated the COVID-19 outbreak at Burnie in Tasmania. The pandemic spread was driven by infection rate, death rate, recovery rate, and government policy.

The government policy reduces the infection in some way, but it also decreases the physical industry. Online industry plays a vital role during the pandemic and brings more opportunities to the world economy. 

The vaccination directly reduces the infection rate. The national border will open as long as residents have been fully vaccinated. 

The model was created based on different rates, including infection rate, death rate, testing rate and recovered rate. There will be difference between the real cases and the model. 

The model only list five elements of government policies embracing vaccination rate, national border and state border restrictions, public health orders, and business restrictions. Public health order includes social distance and residents should wear masks in high spread regions. 

This model only consider two industries which are physical industry, like manufacturer, retailers, or hospitality industries, and online industry. During the pandemic, employees star to work from home and students can have online class. Therefore, the model consider the COVID-19 has positive impact on online industry. 

The susceptible will decrease dramatically in first two weeks due to high infection rate and low recovery rate and government policy. After that, the number of susceptible will have a slight decline. 

The death toll and recovery rate was increased significantly in the first two weeks due to insufficient healthy response. And the trend will become mild as government policy works. 

Exemple de modélisation

Les chiffres 

Introduction:

This model simulates the COVID-19 outbreak situation in Burnie and how the government responses impact local economy. The COVID-19 pandemic spread is influenced by several factors including infection rate, recovery rate, death rate and government's intervention policies.Government's policies reduce the infection spread and also impact economic activities in Burnie, especially its tourism and local businesses.   

Assumptions: 

- This model was built based on different rates, including infection rate, recovery rate, death rate, testing rate and economic growth rate. There can be difference between 

this model and reality.

- This model considers tourism and local business are the main industries influencing local economy in Burnie.

- Government's intervention policies will positive influence on local COVID-19 spread but also negative impact on local economic activity.

- When there are more than 10 COVID-19 cases confirmed, the government policies will be triggered, which will brings effects both restricting the virus spread and reducing local economic growth.

- Greater COVID-19 cases will negatively influence local economic activities.

Interesting Insights:

Government's vaccination policy will make a important difference on restricting the infection spread. When vaccination rate increase, the number of deaths, infected people and susceptible people all decrease. This may show the importance of the role of government's vaccination policy.

When confirmed cases is more than 10, government's intervention policies are effective on reducing the infections, meanwhile local economic activities will be reduced.