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If no attempt is made to eradicate SARS-CoV-2 it will eventually become endemic, ineradicable, at a high never-ending cost to world in terms of economic growth, human health and lives. The current strategy adopted by most governments is to impose  restrictive measures when the virus threatens to overwhelm hospital services and to relax these restrictions as this danger recedes. This is short-sighted. It cannot eliminate the highly infectious delta variant, which has an estimated R0-value of between 6 & 9. Periodic lockdowns will be hard to avoid in the future.

However, eradication is possible, herd immunity can be achieved quickly worldwide, reducing the R0 permanently to below 1, which will lead to the disappearance of the virus. Critical in achieving this is Ivermectin, a medicine that is cheap,  readily available and can be manufactured by most countries. A recent meta study has shown that Ivermectin, prophylactically employed, can prevent infection with the virus  by 86 % on average – very similar to the efficacy of vaccines. Eradication will require employment of all the instruments shown in the graph: future generations do not have to live with this plague. 

SarsCov 2: Countering its Dynamic
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Clone of Clone of COVID-19 S&F PT1
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COVID-19 Disease model
COVID-19 Disease Modal
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Covid-19 sim
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COVID-19 in Iran 2 - ө. ж.
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Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus 

SEIR Infectious Disease Model for COVID-19
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Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus 

Clone of SEIR Infectious Disease Model for COVID-19
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COVID-19 in Brazil
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2 самост
Insight diagram

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus 

Clone of SEIR Infectious Disease Model for COVID-19
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COVID-19 in India
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SD 2 COVID-19 Policy
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Description

 

The model shows Covid-19 situations in Burnie, Tasmania. Under such circumstances, how the state government deals with the pandemic and how economy changes will be illustrated. The relationship between government policy and economic activities under Covid-19 outbreaks will be explained through different variables.


Assumptions

 

Government policy negatively affects Covid-19 outbreaks and economic activities.

Covid-19 outbreaks also has negative effects on economic growth.

 

Parameters

 

There are several fixed and adjusted variables.

 

1.     COVID-19 Outbreaks

Fixed variables: infection rate, recovery rate

Adjusted variables: immunity loss rate

 

2.     Government Policy

Adjusted variables: lockdown, social distancing, testing, vaccination

3.     Economic impact

Fixed variables: tourism

Adjusted variables: economic growth rate

 

Interesting Insights

 

Tourism seems to be the most effective way to bring back economic growth in Tasmania, and it takes time to recover from Covid-19.

 

Government policies tend to have negative influences on economic growth.

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SIR model with deaths by disease. We are working on the speficication of this model for it to represent the global development of the COVID-19 pandemic. This project is ongoing under the responsibility of PPGEA Pandemics Task Force Team, from Universidade Federal de Viçosa - UFV.

More details to be added.

SIR with deaths
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SIRD COVID-19 Хубэй
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Recent COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania