​ Curso de Dinâmica de Sistemas com Insight Maker    Modelo Epidemiológico   Prof. Dr. Paulo Villela     Este modelo está baseado no paper  Crokidakis, Nuno . (2020).  Data analysis and modeling of the evolution of COVID-19 in Brazil . Para mais detalhes veja o paper completo  aqui .
Curso de Dinâmica de Sistemas com Insight Maker
Modelo Epidemiológico
Prof. Dr. Paulo Villela

Este modelo está baseado no paper Crokidakis, Nuno. (2020). Data analysis and modeling of the evolution of COVID-19 in Brazil. Para mais detalhes veja o paper completo aqui.
11 3 days ago
 Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.  The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

 This model indicate indicates the modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government policies with the effect on the local economy. Model was occurred at Burnie, Tasmania. The model mainly contains three parts: COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, four differences government policies and what the imp

This model indicate indicates the modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government policies with the effect on the local economy. Model was occurred at Burnie, Tasmania. The model mainly contains three parts: COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, four differences government policies and what the impact on economy from those policies.

 

Assumptions:

(1) Various variables influence the model, which can result in varied outcomes. The following values are based on an estimate and may differ from actual values. Government initiatives are focused at reducing Covid-19 infections and, as a result, affecting (both positive and negative) economic growth.

 

(2) 42% of infected people will recovery. 10% of people who are infected will die and the rate relatively higher due to the much old people living in Burnie, Tasmania.

78% of cases get tested.

 

(3) Government policy will only be implemented when there are ten or more recorded cases. Four government policies have had influences on infection.  

 

(4) The rising number of instances will have a negative impact on Burnie's economic growth.

 

Insights:

1. As a result of the government's covid 19 rules, fewer people will be vulnerable. Less people going to be susceptible.

 

2. After the government policy intervention, there is a effectively reduce of infected people.

 

3. Overall, there is no big differences of economic performance from the graph, might due to the positive and negative effect of economy. And after two weeks, the economy maintained a level of development without much decline.

Данная модель отражает распространение COVID-19 в России на основе статистики за 2020 год. Модель построена в среде Insight Maker по типу SEIRD (Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered–Dead), с упрощённой динамикой.  Основные параметры:    -Исходное население (масштабировано) : 1000 человек  - Заражё
Данная модель отражает распространение COVID-19 в России на основе статистики за 2020 год. Модель построена в среде Insight Maker по типу SEIRD (Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered–Dead), с упрощённой динамикой.
Основные параметры:
-Исходное население (масштабировано): 1000 человек
-Заражённые в начале: 2.12% → 21 человек
-Выздоровевшие (Recovery period): через 14 дней
-Смертность: 1.71% от заболевших
-Потеря иммунитета: не учитывается (0%)
-Exogenous (внешнее заражение): 2.12%
-Transmit: 0.3 (зависит от количества заражённых и восприимчивых)