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Very basic LV model, looking at the relationship between COVID-19 mitigation behavior and COVID-19 cases

Lotka Volterra COVID Model

Christa

Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

Infectious Disease Model V1.0

David Plummer

39

This is a mitigated model showing the potential spread of COVID-19 across the healthcare system.

COVID phased community model DEMO V1.1 Eastern

David Spencer

4

covid-19

Jasurbek Abdalimov

8 months ago

This insight began as a March 22nd Clone of "Italian COVID 19 outbreak control"; thanks to Gabo HN for the original insight. The following links are theirs:

Initial data from:

Italian data [link] (Mar 4)

Incubation estimation [link]

Andy Long

Northern Kentucky University

May 2nd, 2020

This is an update of our model from April 9th, 2020. As we prepare for our final exam, I read a story in The Guardian about Italy's struggle to return to normalcy. The final paragraphs:

During the debate in the Senate on Thursday, the opposition parties grilled Conte. Ex-prime minister Matteo Renzi, who has called for less restraint in the reopening, remarked, “The people in Bergamo and Brescia who are gone, those who died of the virus, if they could speak, they’d tell us to relaunch the country for them, in their honour.”

Renzi’s controversial statement was harshly criticised by doctors who warned that the spread of the disease, which, as of Thursday, had killed almost 30,000 people in the country and infected more than 205,000 [ael: my emphasis], was not over and that a misstep could take the entire country back to mid-March coronavirus levels.

“We risk a new wave of infections and outbreaks if we’re not careful,” said Tullio Prestileo, an infectious diseases specialist at Palermo’s Benefratelli Hospital. “If we don’t realise this, we could easily find ourselves back where we started. In that case, we may not have the strength to get back up again.”

I have since updated the dataset, to include total cases from February 24th to May 2nd. I went to Harvard's Covid-19 website for Italy and and then to their daily updates, available at github. I downloaded the regional csv file for May 2nd, which had regional totals (21 regions); I grabbed the column "totale_casi" and did some processing to get the daily totals from the 24th of February to the 2nd of May.

The cases I obtained in this way matched those used by Gabo HN.

The initial data they used started on March 3rd (that's the 0 point in this Insight).

You can get a good fit to the data through April 9th by choosing the following (and notice that I've short-circuited the process from the Infectious to the Dead and Recovered). I've also added the Infectious to the Total cases.

The question is: how well did we do at modeling this epidemic through May 2nd (day 60)? And how can we change the model to do a better job of capturing the outbreak from March 3rd until May 2nd?

Incubation Rate: .025

R0: 3

First Lockdown: IfThenElse(Days() == 5, 16000000, 0)

Total Lockdown: IfThenElse(Days() >= 7, 0.7,0)

(I didn't want to assume that the "Total Lockdown" wasn't leaky! So it gets successively tighter, but people are sloppy, so it simply goes to 0 exponentially, rather than completely all at once.)

deathrate: .01

recoveryrate: .03

"Death flow": [deathrate]*[Infectious]

"Recovery flow": [recoveryrate]*[Infectious]

Total Reported Cases: [Dead]+[Surviving / Survived]+[Infectious]

Based on my student Sean's work, I altered the death rate to introduce the notion that doctors are getting better at saving lives:

[deathrate] = 0.02/(.0022*Days()^1.8+1)

I don't agree with this model of the death rate, but it was a start motivated by his work. Thanks Sean!:)

Resources:

* Recent news: "Since the early days of the outbreak in China, scientists have known that SARS-CoV-2 is unusually contagious — more so than influenza or a typical cold virus. Scientific estimates of the reproduction number — the R0, which is the number of new infections that each infected person generates on average — have varied among different communities and different points but have generally been between 2 and 4. That is significantly higher than seasonal influenza."

* https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported

* https://covid19.healthdata.org/italy

Key of Final Version of Italian COVID-19 outbreak

Andrew E Long

Tugas 3 Pemodelan Transportasi Laut_Yopy Anjas

Yopy Anjas

Агентное моделирование Covid-19

Ramina Temirgaliyeva

This is a mitigated model showing the potential spread of COVID-19 across the healthcare system.

COVID phased community model

David Spencer

24

If no attempt is made to eradicate SARS-CoV-2 it will eventually become endemic, ineradicable, at a high never-ending cost to world in terms of economic growth, human health and lives. The current strategy adopted by most governments is to impose restrictive measures when the virus threatens to overwhelm hospital services and to relax these restrictions as this danger recedes. This is short-sighted. It cannot eliminate the highly infectious delta variant, which has an estimated R0-value of between 6 & 9. Periodic lockdowns will be hard to avoid in the future.

However, eradication is possible, herd immunity can be achieved quickly worldwide, reducing the R0 permanently to below 1, which will lead to the disappearance of the virus. Critical in achieving this is Ivermectin, a medicine that is cheap, readily available and can be manufactured by most countries. A recent meta study has shown that Ivermectin, prophylactically employed, can prevent infection with the virus by 86 % on average – very similar to the efficacy of vaccines. Eradication will require employment of all the instruments shown in the graph: future generations do not have to live with this plague.

SarsCov 2: Countering its Dynamic

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Initial data from:

Italian data [link], as of Mar 28

Incubation estimation [link]

Model focuses on outbreak dynamics and control, this version ignores symptom onset to hospital admission and the rest of recovery dynamics.

Italian COVID 19 outbreak control V2

Gabo HN

5

Covid-19 Asad

Asad H

last month

COVID-19

ching tung li

Өзіндік жұмыс

ahrarhusenov

9 months ago

COVID-19 Model

Marcus Yates

Tugas 1_Akhdhan Muhammad Muaz_04411740000017_Pemodelan Transportasi Laut

Dosen Pengampu: Dr-Ing Ir. Setyo Nugroho

Pemodelan Virus Covid-19 di Indonesia

Akhdhan Muhammad Muaz

This model describes the whole process about government response and economic impact when the covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. When the reported cases increase to a certain level, the government realizes its high risk, then publishes a series of policies to protect the public, such as travel restriction, social distance and quarantine. The economic damage is also severe, especially for tourism and hostility industry and retail industry.

Clearly, in the beginning, the number of infected people and death cases increase sharply, but due to government policies and vaccination, it effectively reduces covid-19 cases. For economy, on one hand, the government health policies slow down the pace of growth, on the other hand, the government build vaccine confidence, which leads to more people getting vaccinated, and help the economy back to normal.

Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania

yuan zhang

comportamiento de la población Afectada por el Covid-19

Elvis Mariano Evangelista Medina

Covid-19 in Italy

Нуркасым Нурумкан

Using the reading assignment from El-Taliawi and Hartley on using a SSM for COVID-19 follow the steps for SSM to include:

1) Describe the Problem (unstructured).

2) Develop a Root Definition for the COVID-19 problem space by identifying the three elements: what, how, why. A System to do X, by (means of) Y, in order to achieve Z.

X - What the system does

Y - How it does it

Z - Why is it being done

(see slide 33 in the Systems Thinking Workshop reading)

3) Identify the Perspectives (CATWOE)

4) Develop a basic Systemigram / Rich Picture to tell the story.

Submit your assignment as a Word document or PDF that addresses #1-4. You can use InsightMaker to create your systemigram or use the Systemitool which you can access at SERC hereLinks to an external site..

If you use InsightMaker, try presenting your results as a Story using the Storytelling capabilityLinks to an external site..

You will have TWO WEEKS to complete this assignment (due on March 7th).

Systemigram Model Building Exercise Luis Vega

Luis Vega

Systems Project Stock and Flow

Alexis Pelland-Champagne

This stock-flow simulation model is to show Covid-19 virus spread rate, sources of spreading and safety measures followed by all the countries affected around the world.

The simulation also aims at predicting for how much more period of time the virus will persist, how many people could recover at what kind of rate and also about the virus toughness dependence based on its excessive speed, giving rise to bigger numbers day-by-day.

Week-12-Practice