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Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus 

Clone of SEIR Infectious Disease Model for COVID-19
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Агент модель
Өзіндік жұмыс 2
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This is a mitigated model showing the potential spread of COVID-19 across the healthcare system.

COVID phased community model
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системное моделирование
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SEIRSD MODEL
8 months ago
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COVID-19 Disease model
COVID-19 Disease Modal
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мансұр икт 4
Insight diagram

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus 

Clone of Clone of SEIR Infectious Disease Model for COVID-19
Insight diagram
COVID-19 in India
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Агентное моделирование Covid-19
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Recently, a new article published on <Science> explores the feasibility of living with the current Coronavirus in the long-term through mathematical modeling. Since either complete eradication or herd immunity is difficult to achieve in the short term, this work may provide useful and helpful public health policy implications in real environment.


Based on the model developed in the article, I translate it into a dynamic model here, so you may gain useful insights or check your own assumptions when simulating.

Covid-19 policy evaluation
4 months ago
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covid 19 in china 2
4 months ago
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SIMULASI COVID-19_AUGUSTO DA COSTA DOS SANTOS
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COVID-19 in Iran 2 - ө. ж.
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COVID-19 model with hospitalizations and deaths
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Өзіндік жұмыс 1
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A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.

Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.

A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.  This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.

Interesting insights

Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases.  The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative. 




Clone of Burnie COVID-19 outbreak demo model version 2
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This model estimates the deaths due to COVID19 in Bangalore City. 
Assumptions:
City has a population = 8 Million
Initial infected population = 10
Probability of infection = 8%
Contact rate in population = 6
Average duration of recovery = 10 days
Death rate = 1%
Quarantine rate = 80%
Delay in quarantine = 5 days
COVID-19_SIR_MODEL_No_Quarantine
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Covid-19 Russia
9 months ago
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If no attempt is made to eradicate SARS-CoV-2 it will eventually become endemic, ineradicable, at a high never-ending cost to world in terms of economic growth, human health and lives. The current strategy adopted by most governments is to impose  restrictive measures when the virus threatens to overwhelm hospital services and to relax these restrictions as this danger recedes. This is short-sighted. It cannot eliminate the highly infectious delta variant, which has an estimated R0-value of between 6 & 9. Periodic lockdowns will be hard to avoid in the future.

However, eradication is possible, herd immunity can be achieved quickly worldwide, reducing the R0 permanently to below 1, which will lead to the disappearance of the virus. Critical in achieving this is Ivermectin, a medicine that is cheap,  readily available and can be manufactured by most countries. A recent meta study has shown that Ivermectin, prophylactically employed, can prevent infection with the virus  by 86 % on average – very similar to the efficacy of vaccines. Eradication will require employment of all the instruments shown in the graph: future generations do not have to live with this plague. 

SarsCov 2: Countering its Dynamic
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Explanation
This model shows the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie and how the government policy impacts the economy. The possible phases when the infectious disease spreads in Burnie can be labelled as Susceptible, Infection and Recovery, which are main factors in the model. It is concluded that the government policy can reduce the infectious disease and also the impact in the overall economy.

Assumption
The Government Healthy Policy will affect the decrease in the infection and economy growth rate at the same time.

The Government Health Policy is only triggered when there are more than 10 cases

The increase in number of COVID-19 cases can affect negatively towards the economic growth.

Interesting Insights:
The Government's vaccination promote will reduce the possibility of spreading the infectious disease. 

When vaccination rate increase, the dead, infected people and susceptible group will all decrease. This reveals that the crucial role in government's vaccination promote program.

When there is more than 10 confirmed cases, the government policies can effectively reduce the infections and the overall economic activities.


BMA708_Assignment 3_Joleen Tanjaya