Introduction;

This model shows COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie have some impact for local economy situation and government policy. The main government policy is lockdown during the spreading period which can help reduce the infected rate, and also increase the test scale to help susceptible confirm their situation.

Variables;

Infection rate, Death rate, Recovery rate, test rate, susceptible, immunity rate, economy growth rate

These variables are influenced by different situation.

When cases over 10, government will implement lockdown policy.

Conclusion;

When cases increase too much , they will influence the economic situation.

Interesting insights:

If the recover rate is higher, more people will recover from the disease. It seems to be a positive sign. However, it would lead to a higher number of recovered people and more susceptible. As a result, there would be more cases, and would have a negative impact on the economic growth. 

The System Dynamics Model presents the the COVID-19 status in Puerto Princesa City

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

This Model was first developed from the SIR model (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered). It was designed to explore relationship between the government policies regarding the COVID-19 and its influences on the economy as well as well-being of local residents. 

 

Assumptions:

Government policies will be triggered when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less;

Government policies reduces the infection and economic growth at the same time.

 

Interesting Insights:

In the first two weeks, the infected people showed an exponential growth, in another word, that’s the most important period to control the number of people who got affected. 

 

A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

Simulating virus infecting a body after entering, replicating inside living cells, and the body's immune response towards the virus

Данная модель отражает распространение COVID-19 в России на основе статистики за 2020 год. Модель построена в среде Insight Maker по типу SEIRD (Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered–Dead), с упрощённой динамикой.

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus 

COVID-19 Disease model

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus 

This Model was developed from the SEIR Model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered) and it predicts the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. This pandemic outbreak contributes to diverse rates including infection rate, death rates and recovery rate, government policies and its economic impacts.    

Assumptions:

 This model is driven by its determined rates, e.g., incubation rate, morality rate, test rate and immunity loss rate and its recovery rate.

Government policies are involved in fully vaccination rate, social distance, national border closure, travel, and business restriction which effect Burnie’s economy.

There are three economic entities dimensions in Burnie Island, we can tell that the pandemic has negative impact on Brick-and-Mortar enterprises and tourism business to some extent, whereas, e commercial business plays a crucial role to stimulate the regional economic activities during the COVID-19 period.

 

Interesting Insights:

 The figure of susceptible changes significantly during the initial 3 weeks because of low recovery rate and high infection rate. On the other hand, the implementation and interventions of government policies is effective, because the number of patients who tested negative is increased and the majority of them release and go back home after medical follow-up. 

Model based on several references:
1. https://insightmaker.com/insight/4iVOp2JcrDSTBvqjER7pxM/TA-Pemsim-SEIR-Covid-19-Model
2. https://insightmaker.com/insight/5GiU0WZLpKCLGOoe6xeIhT/SEIR-COVID-19-New-Kl-1
3. https://insightmaker.com/insight/DaOeZ0N9RcgU1Q87ofIj8/COVID-19-SEIR-Model-for-Indonesia

Locus set on Indonesia, during 2021