Brief of the model:
The model predicts the outbreak of COVID-19 in the Burnie,
Tasmania area. It is imperative to clarify that this model was developed from
the SEIR model (Susceptible, Infected, Infected, Recovered). The spread of this
pandemic is driven by a combination of infection rates, mortality rates, and
recovery rates from the virus itself, as well as government policies.
For COVID-19 itself, vaccination directly reduces the
infection rate, thereby reducing the mortality rate of COVID-19 patients and
the reduction of confirmed cases. In other words, if the local population is
adequately vaccinated, everyday life, shopping, tourism, and even national
borders will be open rather than in a closed border situation.
Assumption of the model:
The model simulated based on different rates, including
Infecting rate, Death Rate, Test Rate, Immunity Loss Rate and Recovery Rate.
And, this model lists six elements of government policy, which including border
closure, travel ban, social distancing, business restriction, self-quarantine,
and vaccination schedule.
Besides, the model considers three economic entities in the
Burnie area, one in the brick-and-mortar industry and online business industry.
Government policies have somewhat reduced COVID-19 infections. Still, they have
also at the same time, online businesses played an essential role in
stimulating local economic activity during the pandemic. At the same time,
however, online businesses played an indispensable role in promoting regional
economic activity during the pandemic.
The prediction model is for reference only, and there may be
differences between the actual cases and the model.
Insights of the model:
Due to the high infection and low recovery rates and timely
government policy interventions, the number of susceptible individuals changes
dramatically in the first four weeks. However, the number of sensitive
individuals continues to decline after this period, but the decline is not
significant. Secondly, with the implementation of government policies, the
number of suspected patients who tested negative for medical follow-up
continued to rise, implying that government policy interventions directly
affect COVID-19.
