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Clone nyoba2 of SEIR COVID-19 New Kl. 1

Kelompok1

Динамикалық өзіндік жұмыс

Zholdasbay Asel

10 months ago

Description:

Model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

This model was designed from the SIR model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19 outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.

Assumptions:

The government policy is triggered when the number of infected is more than ten.

The government policies will take a negative effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.

Parameters:

We set some fixed and adjusted variables.

Covid-19 outbreak's parameter

Fixed parameter: Background disease.

Adjusted parameters: Infection rate, recovery rate. Immunity loss rate can be changed from vaccination rate.

Government policy's parameters

Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)

Economic's parameters

Fixed parameter: Tourism

Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)

Interesting insight

An increased vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system still needs a long time to recover in both cases.

BMA708_Assignment 3_Nguyen Dang Khoa Vo_520272_COVID-19 outbreak and Burnie economy

NGUYEN DANG KHOA VO

The System Dynamics Model presents the the COVID-19 status in Сhina

Covid-19 in China

Канатбек Молдир

3 months ago

3-2 болым

Azima Ilyas

10 months ago

HW5 Version 1: Spread of COVID-19 in Cameroon

Heidi Hathorne

COVID-19 FLOW

Sitti Mashita J. Kilis

fatality (death rate)= 2.5%

(as of November in U.S.; source oneworldindata.org)

reinfection rate- unknown, rare

(as of October; source:https://www.ajmc.com/view/first-case-of-covid-19-reinfection-detected-in-the-us)

Covid-19 model 2

Corinne Erickson

Santa Maria Covid-19

Paulo Villela

13

SD MODEL COVID-19

Patrick Zabalo

2 өзіндік

Aigen Bekbolatkyzy

10 months ago

COVID-19 in Jakarta

Rizky Alif Ramadhan

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

We add simple containment meassures that affect two paramenters, the Susceptible population and the rate to become infected.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

The questions that we want to answer in this kind of models are not the shape of the curves, that are almost known from the beginning, but, when this happens, and the amplitude of the shapes. This is crucial, since in the current circumstance implies the collapse of certain resources, not only healthcare.

The validation process hence becomes critical, and allows to estimate the different parameters of the model from the data we obtain. This simulation approach allows to obtain somethings that is crucial to make decisions, the causality. We can infer this from the assumptions that are implicit on the model, and from it we can make decisions to improve the system behavior.

Yes, simulation works with causality and Flows diagrams is one of the techniques we have to draw it graphically, but is not the only one. On https://sdlps.com/projects/documentation/1009 you can review soon the same model but represented in Specification and Description Language.

SEIRD 02: COVID-19 spread with containment measures

Pengcheng Chen

3

Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

Infectious Disease Model (Version 3.0)

David Plummer

23

Pemodelan COVID-19

Hisyam Awie Anugrah

COVID-19 Systems Model

Anuschka Steiner

3 Бөлім өзіндік жұмыс

Дина Килибек

10 months ago

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus

SEIR Infectious Disease Model for COVID-19

Steven D'Alessandro

COVID-19 in Iran 2 - ө. ж.

Арайлым Есләмбек

3 months ago

COVID-19_Systemigram

William Dao

Өзіндік жұмыс Аида 1

aida berikova

10 months ago

3 бөлім өзіндік жұмыс

Di Abdullayeva

10 months ago

An SIR model for Covid-19

This is a simple example of an SIR model for my Mathematics for Liberal Arts classes at Northern Kentucky University, Spring of 2022.

Let's think about things on the scale of a week. What happens over a week?

With an Ro of 2 (2 people infected for each infected individual, over the course of a week); recovery rate of 1 (every infected person loses their infectiousness after a week), and resusceptible rate of .05 (meaning .05, or a twentieth of the recovered lose their immunity each week), the disease peaks -- does the wave, then waves again before the year is out, then ultimately becomes

"endemic" (that is, it's never going away, which is clear after two years -- that is, a time of 104 weeks). This is like our seasonal flu (only the disease in this simulation doesn't illustrate seasonality -- that requires a more complicated model).

With an Ro of .9, recovery rate of 1, and resusceptible rate of .05, the disease is eliminated.

Masking, social distancing (including quarantining following contact), and quarantines all serve to reduce infectivity. And if we can drive infectivity down far enough, the disease can be eliminated. Other things that help is slowing down the resusceptibility, by vaccinating. Vaccines (in general) impart an immune response that reduces -- or even eliminates -- your susceptibility. We are still learning the extent to which these vaccines impart long-term immunity.

Other tools at our disposal include Covid-19 treatments, which increase the recovery rate, and vaccinations, which reduce the resusceptible rate. These can also serve to help us eradicate a disease, so that it doesn't become endemic (and so plague us forever).

Andy Long

Mathematics and Statistics

Some resources:

Wear a good mask: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/effective-masks.html
Gotta catch those sneezes: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8221773/Video-shows-26-foot-trajectory-coronavirus-infected-sneeze.html

MAT115 Covid Simulation

Andrew E Long

Covid-19 model

Covid-19

sakon supakul