Introduction:
This simulation model demonstrates the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie, Tasmania and how the corresponding government’s responses affect the spreading of Covid-19. Meanwhile, this model also shows how the economy in Burnie is influenced by the impacts of both Covid-19 and government policies.
Variables:
This simulation contains some relevant variables as follow:
Variables in Covid-19 outbreaks: (1) Infection rate, (2) Recovery rate, (3) Death rate, (4) Immunity loss rate
Variables in Government policies: (1) Vaccination rate, (2) Lockdown, (3) Travel ban, (4)Quarantine
Variables in Economy: (1) E-commerce business, (2) Unemployment rate, (3) Economic growth rate.
Assumption:
Government responses would be triggered when reported Covid-19 cases are at least 10.
The government policies reduce the spreading of Covid-19, but they would also limit economic development at the same time due to the negative impact of the policies on the economy is greater than the positive impact.
The increase in reported Covid-19 cases would negatively affect economic growth.
Interesting Insights:
The first finding is that the death number would keep increasing even though the infection rate has decreased, but with stronger government policies (such as implementing a coefficient over 25%), no more death numbers will occur caused by Covid-19.
The second finding is that as government policies limit business activities, with the increasing number of reported Covid-19 cases, economic growth will suffer a severe blow even if e-commerce grows, it can’t make up for this economic loss.
BMA 708 assignment 3 - simulation model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania
