March 22nd Clone of "Italian COVID 19 outbreak control"; thanks to Gabo HN for the insight.
Initial data from:
Italian data [link] (Mar 4)
Incubation estimation [link]
Andy Long
April 9th, 2020
I have since updated the dataset, to include total cases from February 24th to April 9th.
I went to
https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/KDFYZW
and downloaded the archive for April 9th:
https://dataverse.harvard.edu/file.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/KDFYZW/C2HSTK&version=19.0
I
dug through the files, and found the file dpc-covid19-ita-regioni.csv,
which had regional totals (21 regions); I grabbed the column
"totale_casi" and used some lsp code to get the daily totals from the
24th of February til the 9th of April.
The good news is that the cases I obtained in this way matched those used by Gabo HN.
The initial data started on March 3rd (that's 0 in this Insight).
You
can get a good fit to the data by choosing the following (and notice
that I've short-circuited the process from the Infectious to the Dead
and Recovered). I've also added the Infectious to the Total cases.
Incubation Rate: .025
R0: 3
First Lockdown: IfThenElse(Days() == 5, 16000000, 0)
Total Lockdown: IfThenElse(Days() >= 7, 0.7,0)
(I
didn't want to assume that the "Total Lockdown" wasn't leaky! So it
gets successively tighter, but people are sloppy, so it simply goes to 0
exponentially, rather than completely all at once.)
deathrate: .01
recoveryrate: .03
"Death flow": [deathrate]*[Infectious]
"Recovery flow": [recoveryrate]*[Infectious]
Total Reported Cases: [Dead]+[Surviving / Survived]+[Infectious]
Resources:
* https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported
