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Системная динамика COVID-19

Barabarabara Berebere

4 months ago

SIR Modeling of Covid-19 in Cameroon

Briana Soriano

Covid-19 Pandemic

Sneha Tirchy Shekar

Covid-19 Model самостоятельная1

Kuanysheva Nurbanu

Tuberculosis agent of Kazakhstan

Alikhan Mairambayev

9

COVID-19 в Бразилии (агентное моделирование)

Kamal Lisa

5 months ago

COVID-19 cases in Barangay Candawaga, Municipality of Rizal

COVID-19 MODEL2 (OPERIANO, GLIANNE BETH O.)

Glianne Operiano

COVID-19 SEIR Model for Indonesia

Daffa Muhammad Romero

Explanation of the Model

The sample model demonstrate the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania appearing how the government reacts by executing important health approaches and the impacts on the economy of the region

Assumptions

The economic growth rate is subordinate on the extent of the populace who can be exposed. The number of COVID-19 cases adversely impacts the economy. The government arrangement is activated when the COVID-19 cases are 10 or above

Interesting Insights

1. There is a positive relationship between exposure to COVID- 19 and economic growth rate. Since the more individuals go out, the more trade activity takes place and that ultimately results economic growth

2. Expanding the testing rate results

- Higher cases being recognized

- Strict government intervention

- Less deaths

BMA708_Assignment3_Md Shihabul Islam_548056

Md Shihabul Islam

A simple ABM example illustrating how the SEIR model works. It can be a basis for experimenting with learning the impact of human behavior on the spread of a virus, e.g. COVID-19.

SEIR ABM MODEL

Remigiusz Kinas

24

Check how different times of recovery and deths in cases of covid-19 infulence 2 key mortality indicators:

Overall mortalityr ate (ratio of all deaths to all cases)

Resolved cases mortality rate (ratio of all deaths to recovered cases)

Assumed delays are:

5 weeks for recovery cases

2 weeks for death cases

Delays are built into conveyor stocks, so cannot be adjusted by slider

keep in mind Insigth uses similar but made-up numbers and linear flow of new cases (in opposition to exponential in real world)

Understanding Covid-19 mortality

Cezary Zając

COVID-19

Мадина Ерсайынова

Propagación y recuperación Covid-19

kevin Francia

Overview:

The COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania shows the process of COVID-19 outbreak, the impacts of government policy on both the COVID-19 outbreak and the GDP growth in Burnie.

Assumptions:

We set some variables at fix rates, including the immunity loss rate, recovery rate, death rate, infection rate and case impact rate, as they usually depend on the individual health conditions and social activities.

It should be noticed that we set the rate of recovery, which is 0.7, is higher than that of immunity loss rate, which is 0.5, so, the number of susceptible could be reduced over time.

Adjustments: (please compare the numbers at week 52)

Step 1: Set all the variables at minimum values and simulate

results: Number of Infected – 135; Recovered – 218; Cases – 597; Death – 18,175; GDP – 10,879.

Step 2: Increase the variables of Health Policy, Quarantine, and Travel Restriction to 0.03, others keep the same as step 1, and simulate

results: Number of Infected – 166 (up); Recovered – 249 (up); Cases – 554 (down); Death – 18,077 (down); GDP – 824 (down).

So, the increase of health policy, quarantine and travel restriction will help increase recovery, decrease confirmed cases, decrease death, but also decrease GDP.

Step 3: Increase the variables of Testing Rate to 0.4, others keep the same as step 2, and simulate

results: Number of Infected – 152 (down); Recovered – 243 (down); Cases – 1022 (up); Death – 17,625 (down); GDP – 824 (same).

So, the increase of testing rate will help to increase the confirmed cases.

Step 4: Change GDP Growth Rate to 0.14, Tourism Growth Rate to 0.02, others keep the same as step 3, and simulate

results: Number of Infected – 152 (same); Recovered – 243 (same); Cases – 1022 (same); Death – 17,625 (same); GDP – 6,632 (up).

So, the increase of GDP growth rate and tourism growth rate will helps to improve the GDP in Burnie.

COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania - Lin Ling 523592

Lin Ling

3

COVID-19 в Китае

Madina Muradova

Covid-19 in Germany

Мадияр Сейтмуратов

Somulacion clase 2, retroalimentación + y - , primer versión

Modelo Covid-19 Co

brow

Atakan Han 150501024

During the Covid-19 Outbreak Model

Atakan

Самостоятельная работа

Mussa Farkhat

Explanation of the Model

This is a Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania which shows the government actions in response to the pandemic COVID-19 and its affects on the Economy. The government health policy changes depending on the reported cases, which is a dependent upon the testing rate.

Assumptions

Lockdown and travel ban were the main factor in government policy. It negatively impacts on the Economic growth as individuals are not going out which is directly affects the business around the world, in this insight 'Burnie'. This reduces the economic growth and the factors positively effecting economic growth such as Tourism.

Government policies has a negative impact on Exposer of individuals. Moreover, it also has a negative impact on chances of infection when exposed as well as other general infection rate.

Interesting Insight

There is a significant impact of test rating on COVID-19 outbreak. Higher rates increases the government involvement, which decreases cases as well as the total death.

In contrast, lower testing rates increase the death rate and cases.

Tourism which plays a avital role in Tasmanian Economy greatly affects the Economic Growth. The decline of Tourism in parts of Tasmania such as Burnie, would directly decrease the economy of Tasmania.

BMA 708, Assessment Tast 3: Complex System, Burnie COVID-19 outbreak, Diprina Shakya-519673

Diprina Shakya

6

This model calculates and demonstrates the possible spread of COVID-19 through an agent-based map. It shows the timeline of a healthy individual being infected to recovery.

COVID Model