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New SEIR COVID-19

Kelompok1

31

My Insight

Tomiris Zhalbyrova

Динамика

Bisyltan

Өзіндік жұмыс 2

Аружан Серік

18

A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

Assumptions

The government has reduced both the epidemic and economic development by controlling immigration.

Yuhao c, BMA708_Marketing insights into Big Data.

Yuhao Chen

Өзіндік жұмыс Аида 1

aida berikova

covid-19

Deanna Fanelli

3

COVID-19 in Japan СРС-2

Iriskulova Holida

7 months ago

Explanation of the Model

The sample model demonstrate the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania appearing how the government reacts by executing important health approaches and the impacts on the economy of the region

Assumptions

The economic growth rate is subordinate on the extent of the populace who can be exposed. The number of COVID-19 cases adversely impacts the economy. The government arrangement is activated when the COVID-19 cases are 10 or above

Interesting Insights

1. There is a positive relationship between exposure to COVID- 19 and economic growth rate. Since the more individuals go out, the more trade activity takes place and that ultimately results economic growth

2. Expanding the testing rate results

- Higher cases being recognized

- Strict government intervention

- Less deaths

BMA708_Assignment3_Md Shihabul Islam_548056

Md Shihabul Islam

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus

SEIR Infectious Disease Model for COVID-19

Silent Whisper

SIR Modeling of Covid-19 in Cameroon

Briana Soriano

Covid -19 Nurym

Нурым Бекназым

3

School project for data modell of the COVID-19 Virus

Corona - DE

Jan Moritz Meyer

11

Пневмония в США

Kamynina Julia

3

Өздік жұмыс(жүйелік модельдеу)

Еркетай Томирис

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

Самостоятельная работа COVID-19

ERA

This stock-flow simulation model is to show Covid-19 virus spread rate, sources of spreading and safety measures followed by all the countries affected around the world.

The simulation also aims at predicting for how much more period of time the virus will persist, how many people could recover at what kind of rate and also about the virus toughness dependence based on its excessive speed, giving rise to bigger numbers day-by-day.

Week-12-Practice

Sai Nagavelli

16

COVID-19

Аяулым Халыктай

системное Америка

Shirin

Агенттик моделирование. ковид Корея

Жанел Мұхаметқан

7 months ago

About the Model

This model is a dynamic model which explains the relationship between the police of the government and the economy situation in Burnie Tasmania after the outbreak of Corona Virus.

This model is based on SIR model, which explains the dynamic reflection between the people who were susceptible, infected,deaths and recovered.

Assumptions

This model assumes that when the Covid-19 positive is equal or bigger than 10, the government policy can be triggered. This model assumes that the shopping rate in retail shops and the dining rates in the restaurants can only be influenced by the government policy.

Interesting Insights

The government police can have negative influence on the infection process, as it reduced the possibility of people get infected in the public environments. The government policy has a negative effect on shopping rate in retail shops and the dining rate in the restaurants.

However, the government policy would cause negative influence on economy. As people can not shopping as normal they did, and they can not dinning in the restaurants. The retail selling growth rate and restaurant revenue growth rate would be reduced, and the economic situation would go worse.

Corona virus outbreak in Burnie Tasmania (Xuexiao Zhang 538712)

Xuexiao Zhang

March 22nd Clone of "Italian COVID 19 outbreak control"; thanks to Gabo HN for the insight.

Initial data from:

Italian data [link] (Mar 4)

Incubation estimation [link]

Andy Long

April 9th, 2020

I have since updated the dataset, to include total cases from February 24th to April 9th.

I went to
https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/KDFYZW
and downloaded the archive for April 9th:
https://dataverse.harvard.edu/file.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/KDFYZW/C2HSTK&version=19.0

I dug through the files, and found the file dpc-covid19-ita-regioni.csv, which had regional totals (21 regions); I grabbed the column "totale_casi" and used some lsp code to get the daily totals from the 24th of February til the 9th of April.

The good news is that the cases I obtained in this way matched those used by Gabo HN.

The initial data started on March 3rd (that's 0 in this Insight).

You can get a good fit to the data by choosing the following (and notice that I've short-circuited the process from the Infectious to the Dead and Recovered). I've also added the Infectious to the Total cases.

Incubation Rate: .025

R0: 3

First Lockdown: IfThenElse(Days() == 5, 16000000, 0)

Total Lockdown: IfThenElse(Days() >= 7, 0.7,0)

(I didn't want to assume that the "Total Lockdown" wasn't leaky! So it gets successively tighter, but people are sloppy, so it simply goes to 0 exponentially, rather than completely all at once.)

deathrate: .01

recoveryrate: .03

"Death flow": [deathrate]*[Infectious]

"Recovery flow": [recoveryrate]*[Infectious]

Total Reported Cases: [Dead]+[Surviving / Survived]+[Infectious]

Resources:

* https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported

MAT375 Version of Italian COVID 19 outbreak control

Andrew E Long

32

COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania Simulation Model

Introduction

This model simulates how COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie and how the government responses influence the economic community. Government responses are based on the reported COVID-19 cases amount, whcih is considered to be based on testing rate times number of people who are infected minus those recovered from COVID-19 and dead.

Government interventions include the implement of healthy policy, border surveillance, quarantine and travel restriction. After outbreak, economic activities are positively affected by the ecommerce channel development and normal economic grwoth, while the unemployement rate unfortunately increases as well.

Assumption

Enforcing government policies reduce both infection and economica growth.
When there are 10 or greater COVID-19 cases reported, the governmwnt policies are triggered.
Greater COVID-19 cases have negatively influenced the economic activities.
Government policies restict people's activities socially and economically, leading to negative effects on economy.
Opportunities for jobs are cut down too, making umemployment rate increased.
During the outbreak period, ecommerce has increased accordingly because people are restricted from going out.

Interesting insights

An increase in vaccination rate will make difference on reduing the infection. People who get vaccinated are seen to have higher immunity index to fight with COVID-19. Further research is needed.

Testing rate is considered as critical issue to reflect the necessity of government intervention. Higher testing rate seems to boost immediate intervention. Reinforced policies can then reduce the spread of coronvirus but absoluately have negative impacts on economy too.

Mengling Xue 561743 BMA708_Marketing insights into Big Data

Mengling Xue

Model di samping adalah model SEIR yang telah dimodifikasi sehingga dapat digunakan untuk menyimulasikan perkembangan penyebaran COVID-19.

SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Indonesia - v2

Ngaliman Abu Ibrahim