This
Model was developed from the SEIR Model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered)
and it predicts the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. This pandemic
outbreak contributes to diverse rates including infection rate, death rates and
recovery rate, government policies and its economic impacts.
Assumptions:
This
model is driven by its determined rates, e.g., incubation rate, morality rate,
test rate and immunity loss rate and its recovery rate.
Government
policies are involved in fully vaccination rate, social distance, national
border closure, travel, and business restriction which effect Burnie’s economy.
There
are three economic entities dimensions in Burnie Island, we can tell that the
pandemic has negative impact on Brick-and-Mortar enterprises and tourism
business to some extent, whereas, e commercial business plays a crucial role to
stimulate the regional economic activities during the COVID-19 period.
Interesting
Insights:
The
figure of susceptible changes significantly during the initial 3 weeks because
of low recovery rate and high infection rate. On the other hand, the
implementation and interventions of government policies is effective, because the
number of patients who tested negative is increased and the majority of them
release and go back home after medical follow-up.
