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Covid-19 in USA

Марина Якимова

Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.

We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured in

https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model

Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure

With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.

Resources:

Coronavirus: A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) with death

Andrew E Long

62

Das SEIRS(D)-Modell zum Simulieren der COVID-19 - Epidemie.

SEIR - COVID-19 (v.1) von Remigiusz Kinas

Antonius Warmeling

COVID-19 MODEL

Lovely Mae Villalva

COVID-19 in Iran 2 - ө. ж.

Арайлым Есләмбек

An Agent Based Model of Covid-19. Disease Dynamics of Agent Based Model, aims to present the Covid-19 status

Ph_Covid19ABM_Shanea Betorin

Shanea Betorin

COVID-19 Kazakstan Abdrakhman

Abdrakhman

9 months ago

About the Model

This model is a dynamic model which explains the relationship between the police of the government and the economy situation in Burnie Tasmania after the outbreak of Corona Virus.

This model is based on SIR model, which explains the dynamic reflection between the people who were susceptible, infected,deaths and recovered.

Assumptions

This model assumes that when the Covid-19 positive is equal or bigger than 10, the government policy can be triggered. This model assumes that the shopping rate in retail shops and the dining rates in the restaurants can only be influenced by the government policy.

Interesting Insights

The government police can have negative influence on the infection process, as it reduced the possibility of people get infected in the public environments. The government policy has a negative effect on shopping rate in retail shops and the dining rate in the restaurants.

However, the government policy would cause negative influence on economy. As people can not shopping as normal they did, and they can not dinning in the restaurants. The retail selling growth rate and restaurant revenue growth rate would be reduced, and the economic situation would go worse.

Corona virus outbreak in Burnie Tasmania (Xuexiao Zhang 538712)

Xuexiao Zhang

Simulation of how a virus infects after entering the body, how it replicates inside living cells, and how the body's immune system responds towards the virus

System Dynamic Model 1b (Previously-infected individual)

Hazwan Hafiz

3

Proyecto final dinámica de sistemas

Proyecto dinamica

Raúl Gerardo Ceballos Trujillo

Check how different times of recovery and deths in cases of covid-19 infulence 2 key mortality indicators:

Overall mortalityr ate (ratio of all deaths to all cases)

Resolved cases mortality rate (ratio of all deaths to recovered cases)

Assumed delays are:

5 weeks for recovery cases

2 weeks for death cases

Delays are built into conveyor stocks, so cannot be adjusted by slider

keep in mind Insigth uses similar but made-up numbers and linear flow of new cases (in opposition to exponential in real world)

Understanding Covid-19 mortality

Cezary Zając

Systemigram Exercise - SSM and COVID 19 KEI

Kyle Izbicky

Assignment 3 Norway Covid-19

C. T

Самостаятельная работа часть 1 Акилбеков Асет

Akilbekov Aset

8 months ago

COVID-19 в Бразилии за 2020-2024 года (динамика заболеваний)

Kamal Lisa

2 months ago

Clone nyoba2 of SEIR COVID-19 New Kl. 1

Kelompok1

SIR Modeling of Covid-19 in Cameroon

Briana Soriano

Introduction;

This model shows COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie have some impact for local economy situation and government policy. The main government policy is lockdown during the spreading period which can help reduce the infected rate, and also increase the test scale to help susceptible confirm their situation.

Variables;

Infection rate, Death rate, Recovery rate, test rate, susceptible, immunity rate, economy growth rate

These variables are influenced by different situation.

When cases over 10, government will implement lockdown policy.

Conclusion;

When cases increase too much , they will influence the economic situation.

Interesting insights:

If the recover rate is higher, more people will recover from the disease. It seems to be a positive sign. However, it would lead to a higher number of recovered people and more susceptible. As a result, there would be more cases, and would have a negative impact on the economic growth.

Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tamania ( WANTING BAO, 536865)

wanting bao

[The Model of COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak in Burnie, TAS]

A model of COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from the government with the impact on the local economy and medical supply.

It is assumed that the government policy is triggered and rely on reported COVID-19 cases when the confirmed cases are 10 or less.

Interesting insights

The infection rate will decline if the government increase the testing ranges, meanwhile, the more confirmed cases will increase the pressure on hospital capacity and generate more demand for medical resources, which will promote government policy intervention to narrow the demand gap and affect economic performance by increasing hospital construction with financial investment.

The Model of COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak in Burnie, TAS

Yuxi Wang

Model Penyebaran Hoaks "Golongan Darah O Kebal COVID-19"_500359_492989

Anantadhirya

SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Italy

Artyom Zainulin

An SIR model for Covid-19

This is a simple example of an SIR model for my Mathematics for Liberal Arts classes at Northern Kentucky University, Spring of 2022.

Let's think about things on the scale of a week. What happens over a week?

With an Ro of 2 (2 people infected for each infected individual, over the course of a week); recovery rate of 1 (every infected person loses their infectiousness after a week), and resusceptible rate of .05 (meaning .05, or a twentieth of the recovered lose their immunity each week), the disease peaks -- does the wave, then waves again before the year is out, then ultimately becomes

"endemic" (that is, it's never going away, which is clear after two years -- that is, a time of 104 weeks). This is like our seasonal flu (only the disease in this simulation doesn't illustrate seasonality -- that requires a more complicated model).

With an Ro of .9, recovery rate of 1, and resusceptible rate of .05, the disease is eliminated.

Masking, social distancing (including quarantining following contact), and quarantines all serve to reduce infectivity. And if we can drive infectivity down far enough, the disease can be eliminated. Other things that help is slowing down the resusceptibility, by vaccinating. Vaccines (in general) impart an immune response that reduces -- or even eliminates -- your susceptibility. We are still learning the extent to which these vaccines impart long-term immunity.

Other tools at our disposal include Covid-19 treatments, which increase the recovery rate, and vaccinations, which reduce the resusceptible rate. These can also serve to help us eradicate a disease, so that it doesn't become endemic (and so plague us forever).

Andy Long

Mathematics and Statistics

Some resources:

Wear a good mask: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/effective-masks.html
Gotta catch those sneezes: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8221773/Video-shows-26-foot-trajectory-coronavirus-infected-sneeze.html

MAT115 Covid Simulation

Andrew E Long

Description:

Model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

This model was designed from the SIR model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19 outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.

Assumptions:

The government policy is triggered when the number of infected is more than ten.

The government policies will take a negative effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.

Parameters:

We set some fixed and adjusted variables.

Covid-19 outbreak's parameter

Fixed parameter: Background disease.

Adjusted parameters: Infection rate, recovery rate. Immunity loss rate can be changed from vaccination rate.

Government policy's parameters

Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)

Economic's parameters

Fixed parameter: Tourism

Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)

Interesting insight

An increased vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system still needs a long time to recover in both cases.

BMA708_Assignment 3_Nguyen Dang Khoa Vo_520272_COVID-19 outbreak and Burnie economy

NGUYEN DANG KHOA VO