Overall mortalityr ate (ratio of all deaths to all cases)

Resolved cases mortality rate (ratio of all deaths to recovered cases)

Assumed delays are:

5 weeks for recovery cases

2 weeks for death cases

Delays are built into conveyor stocks, so cannot be adjusted by slider

keep in mind Insigth uses similar but made-up numbers and linear flow of new cases (in opposition to exponential in real world)  

-Исходное население (масштабировано): 1000 человек

-Заражённые в начале: 2.12% → 21 человек

-Выздоровевшие (Recovery period): через 14 дней

-Смертность: 1.71% от заболевших

-Потеря иммунитета: не учитывается (0%)

-Exogenous (внешнее заражение): 2.12%

-Transmit: 0.3 (зависит от количества заражённых и восприимчивых)

Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.

We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured in

Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure

With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.

Resources:

This model simulates how COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie and how the government responses influence the economic community.  Government responses are based on the reported COVID-19 cases amount, whcih is considered to be based on testing rate times number of people who are infected minus those recovered from COVID-19 and dead.

Government interventions include the implement of healthy policy, border surveillance, quarantine and travel restriction. After outbreak, economic activities are positively affected by the ecommerce channel development and normal economic grwoth, while the unemployement rate unfortunately increases as well. 

An increase in vaccination rate will make difference on reduing the infection. People who get vaccinated are seen to have higher immunity index to fight with COVID-19. Further research is needed.

Testing rate is considered as critical issue to reflect the necessity of government intervention. Higher testing rate seems to boost immediate intervention. Reinforced policies can then reduce the spread of coronvirus but absoluately have negative impacts on economy too.