Diagram and simulation of disease spread

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Explore What Others Are Building

Here is a sample of public Insights made by Insight Maker users. This list is auto-generated and updated daily.

Westley, F. R., O. Tjornbo, L. Schultz, P. Olsson, C. Folke, B. Crona and Ö. Bodin. 2013. A theory of transformative agency in linked social-ecological systems. Ecology and Society 18(3): 27. link

Transformative Agency in Social-Ecological System

Geoff McDonnell

World4 is a predictive model for world population. Population has grown hyper-exponentially in the last millenium, with the doubling time decreasing from 900 years in 1000 CE to a minimum of ~35 years in 1963 CE. Technology is defined as that which decreases the death rate and/or increases the effective birth rate (i.e. by decreasing infant mortality). Technology grows exponentially, therefore population fits a hyper-exponential (exponent within an exponent). Models for the end of growth are explored using equations that express the ways humans are depleting Earth's biocapacity, the nature of resource depletion, and the relationship between natural resources and human carrying capacity. This simple model, containing just two closed systems, captures the subtle shifts in the population trajectory of the last 50 years. Specifically, hyperexponential growth has given way to subexponential growth. A peak is predicted for the time around 2028. [Bystroff, C. (2021). Footprints to singularity: A global population model explains late 20th century slow-down and predicts peak within ten years. PloS one, 16(5), e0247214.]

World4.5

Christopher Bystroff

22 2 weeks ago

La situación modelada expresa el crecimiento de las ventas impulsadas por la motivación y productividad, pero es frenada por el tamaño del nicho de mercado.

Límite de Crecimiento

Marcelo A. Castro Iglesias

502 2 months ago

Aztecs

Aztecas

Antes de abordar el caso específico de la epidemia de viruela entre los aztecas, es importante presentar el modelo epidemiológico básico conocido como SIR (Susceptibles – Infectados – Recuperados). Este modelo permite entender cómo se propaga una infección en una población a lo largo del tiempo, clasificando a las personas en tres categorías principales:

Susceptibles (S): Personas que aún no se han contagiado pero pueden infectarse.
Infectados (I): Personas que han contraído la enfermedad y pueden transmitirla.
Recuperados (R): Personas que ya no transmiten la enfermedad, sea por inmunidad adquirida o por fallecimiento.

Modelo (SIR) básico de la Infección