The statement that there can be no economic activity without  energy and that fossil fuels are finite contrasts with the fact that money is not finite and can be created by governments via their central banks at zero marginal cost whenever needed.

An important fact about COAL, GAS and OIL (especially when produced via fracking) is that their net energy ratios are falling rapidly. In other words the energy needed to extract a given quantity of fossil fuels is constantly increasing. The falling ratio 'EROI' (Energy Return on Energy Invested ) provides yet another warning that we can no longer rely on fossil fuels to power our economies. In 1940 it took the energy of only one barrel of oil to extract 100. Today the energy of 1 barrel of oil will yield only 15. We cannot wait until the ratio falls to 1/1 before we invest seriously in alternative sources of energy, because by then industrial society as we know it doday will have ceased to exist. An EROI of 1:1 means that it takes the energy of one barrel of oil to extract one barrel of oil - oil production would simply stop! 

A simple model of economic growth where a government taxes the economy, and spends it on capital and revenue goods.

Any activity  requires the use of energy. Economic activity is not possible without energy,  especially fossil fuels. An increase in economic activity necessarily leads to an increase in the use  fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions. In addition there will   be a commensurate increase in waste products, pollution and heat. This is dictated by the laws of physics and unavoidable.  A problem arise when the cost of this degeneration caused by continual economic growth surpasses the benefit society derives from it. The ecological economist Professor Herman Daly (2014) explained that when the impact on the ecosystem is correctly measured, global growth has reached a point where the total private and social costs of economic growth outweigh the private and social benefits. In other words, more economic growth is making global society worse off overall - growth has become uneconomic! The model shows that eventually pressures will build up that counteract the perennial belief that all social ills can be solved with economic growth. 

WIP based on Bill mitchell's blogs. 

Goodwin business cycle model, modified from Keen and Blatt

WIP of several books of Karl Polanyi's thoughts and papers around social science economic history and capitalism. . See also Summary of the Great Transformation IM-10640

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a more environmentally focused policy.

WIP Overview model structures of Khalid Saeed's 2014 WPI paper Jay Forrester’s Disruptive Models of Economic Behavior  See also General SD and Macroeconomics CLDs IM-168865

Butterfly Effect
Sensitivity To Initial Conditions
(sensitive dependence on initial conditions)
Navier Stokes Equations
Lorenz Attractor
Chaos Theory, Disorder and Entropy



If M is the state space for the map , then  displays sensitive dependence to initial conditions if for any x in M and any δ > 0, there are y in M, with  such that

First Basic Macro economic model

Simulation of Goodwin01 Minsky Model CLD in IM-172002 Compare with Part3 slide 3 of presentation in patreon. See extension Goodwin02 at IM-172145

To maintain economic wealth (roads, hospitals, power lines, etc.) power needs to be consumed. The same applies to economic activity, since any activity requires the consumption of energy. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the burning of fossil fuels was responsible for 79 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2010. So whilst economic activity takes place fossil fuels will be burned and CO2 emissions are unavoidable - unless we use exclusively renewable energy resources, which is not likely to occur very soon. However, the increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will have negative consequences, such droughts, floods, crop failures, etc. These effects represent limits to economic growth. The CLD illustrates some of the more prominent negative feedback loops that act as a break on economic growth and wealth.  As the negative feedback loops (B1-B4) get stronger, an interesting question is, 'will a sharp reduction in economic wealth and unavoidable recession lead to wide-spread food riots and disturbances?'

During the 'big recession' many governments have deliberately repressed salaries, usually via structural reforms, in order to gain competitivity. However, repression of salaries increases inequality, social discontent and often has counterintuitive effects. Salaries are a cost for companies, but they are also the basis for the demand for the goods and services they offer: people with little income cannot afford them. Scientific studies have shown repeatedly that economic growth generated via salary increases does not endanger the creation of employment, but rather reinforces it. In most countries, the 'positive effect of salary increases' eclipses any possible negative effects on export competitivity and even any detrimental effect on investment. A good example of such a study is the work of ONARAN and OBST on Wage-led Growth in the EU15 Member States (2016).  This positive dynamic has been highlighted in the model by prominent arrows. The policy implications for governments are clear! 

Circular equations WIP for Runy.

This is an evolving attempt to illustrate the interconnected nature of the economic assets of Roswell - Chaves County

Wealth can be seen as the factories, infrastructure, goods and services the population of a nation dispose of. According to Tim Garrett,  a scientist who looks at the economy from the perspective of physics, it is existing wealth that generates economic activity and growth. This growth demands the use of energy as no activity can take place without its use. He also points out that the use of this energy unavoidably  leads to concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere.  All this, Tim Garrett says,  follows from the second law of thermodynamics.  If wealth decreases then so does economic activity and growth. The CLD tries to illustrate how wealth, ironically, now generates the conditions and feedback loops  that  may cause it to decline. The consequences are  inevitably economic  stagnation (or secular recession?). 

You can read about the connection Tim Garrett makes between 'Wealth, Economic Growth, Energy and CO2  Emissions' simply by Googling 'Tim Garrett and Economy'.

IM-168155 Summary of Ch 27 of Mitchell Wray and Watts Textbook see IM-164967 for book overview with simplified Mike Radzicki's 2003 Evolutionary Economics history article added

How education causes the gap between socio-economic status?

Structure of model in Nathan Forrester's 1983 MIT Thesis comprising 4 models