This model demonstrates the relationship between the covid-19 outbreak, government policy, and economic impacts. This model was developed based on SIR model (Susceptible, Infection, Recovery). The model also outlines the policies been implemented by the government to cope with Covid-19 pandemic and it also indicate its economic impact. 

Dieses Causal Loop Diagramm (CLD) versucht in vereinfachter Weisse die Wesentliche Dynamik des Mars-CoV-2 zu veranschaulichen. Der Motor hinter den Infektionen ist offensichtlich eine selbstverstärkende Rückkopplungsschleife, und ausschlaggebend in diesem Bezug ist der R-Wert. Wenn der R-Wert unter 1 liegt, dann heisst das, dass eine infizierte Person während des Zeitraums, in dem sie infektiös ist, weniger als eine andere Person infiziert.  Liegt der Wert über 1, dann steckt die Infizierte mehr als eine andere Person an, und das Virus verbreitet sich exponentiell. Die Schleifen, die blaue Pfeile enthalten, sind negative Rückkopplungsschleifen – sie bremsen die Verbreitung des Virus. Das Diagramm suggeriert, dass der R-Wert als Schlüssel zur Kontrolle der Verbreitung des Virus dienen könnte. Sollte der Wert über 1 steigen, so müssten  Schutzmassnahem eingeführt werden. Ist der Wert unter 1, dann sind die negativen Schleifen dominierend und einige Massnahmen könnten gelockert werden. 

A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

In this activity show the system dynamics model or the SDM, we can see the covid-19 flows and transition or links.

EL NIDO, PALAWAN COVID-19 CASES / MAY 15, 2021 

Overview:

Overall, this analysis showed a COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, the government policies to curtail that, and some of the impacts it is having on the Burnie economy.

Variables

The simulation made use of the variables such as; Covid-19: (1): Infection rate. (2): Recovery rate. (3): Death rate. (4): Immunity loss rate etc. 

Assumptions:

From the model, it is apparent that government health policies directly affect the economic output of Burnie. A better health policy has proven to have a better economic condition for Burnie and verse versa.

In the COVID-19 model, some variables are set at fixed rates, including the immunity loss rate, recovery rate, death rate, infection rate, and case impact rate, as this is normally influenced by the individual health conditions and social activities.

Moving forward, we decided to set the recovery rate to 0.7, which is a rate above the immunity loss rate of 0.5, so, the number of susceptible could be diminished over time.

Step 1: Try to set all value variables at their lowest point and then stimulate. 

 

Outcome: the number of those Infected are– 135; Recovered – 218; Cases – 597; Death – 18,175; GDP – 10,879.

Step 2: Try to increase the variables of Health Policy, Quarantine, and Travel Restriction to 0.03, others keep the same as step 1, and simulate

Outcome: The number of those Infected – 166 (up); Recovered – 249 (up); Cases – 554 (down); Death – 18,077 (down); GDP – 824 (down).

With this analysis, it is obvious that the increase of health policy, quarantine, and travel restriction will assist in increase recovery rate, a decrease in confirmed cases, a reduction in death cases or fatality rate, but a decrease in Burnie GDP.

Step 3: Enlarge the Testing Rate to 0.4, variable, others, maintain the same as step 2, and simulate

Outcome: It can be seen that the number of Infected is down to – 152; those recovered down to – 243; overall cases up to – 1022; those that died down to–17,625; while the GDP remains – 824.

In this step, it is apparent that the increase of testing rate will assist to increase the confirmed cases.

Step 4: Try to change the GDP Growth Rate to 0.14, then Tourism Growth Rate to 0.02, others keep the same as step 3, and then simulate the model

Outcome: what happens is that the Infected number – 152 remains the same; Recovered rate– 243 the same; Number of Cases – 1022 (same); Death – 17,625 (same); but the GDP goes up to– 6,632. 

This final step made it obvious that the increase of GDP growth rate and tourism growth rate will help to improve the overall GDP performance of Burnie's economy.

Variant of the model "COVID-19 spread" made by Anxo-Lois Pereira and Miquel Martínez de Morentin, including reinfection, permanent immunity and Vaccines. Made for the subject of TAED.

This model shows an SIR model of COVID-19 infection in the Philippines. The data used in this model are recent data from COVID-19 statistics reports this 2023.