Based on the SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model of disease, this is an upgraded model with more specifc vaeriables.
Government policy includes quarantine and social distance. Quarantine can reduce the exposed people as more people are staying at home, while social distance can reduce the infected people who are exposed.
However, quarantine has negative impact on ecnomic activity. The economic activity also be influenced by the offline shopping sales volume growth rate, online shopping sales volume growth rate and economic growth rate. As most people are staying home for quarantine and less people exposed, thus, the offline shopping sales volume can be much lower than online sales volume.
Insights:
When the growth rate and the number of the recovered is much larger than deaths, the economic activity remain steady growing.
