The System Dynamic Model represents the Covid19 cases in Brgy. Sicsican, Puerto Princesa City as of May 27,2022. 

This model describes the whole process about government response and economic impact when the covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. When the reported cases increase to a certain level, the government realizes its high risk, then publishes a series of policies to protect the public, such as travel restriction, social distance and quarantine. The economic damage is also severe, especially for tourism and hostility industry and retail industry.

 

Clearly, in the beginning, the number of infected people and death cases increase sharply, but due to government policies and vaccination, it effectively reduces covid-19 cases. For economy, on one hand, the government health policies slow down the pace of growth, on the other hand, the government build vaccine confidence, which leads to more people getting vaccinated, and help the economy back to normal.

This is a mitigated model showing the potential spread of COVID-19 across the healthcare system.

If no attempt is made to eradicate SARS-CoV-2 it will eventually become endemic, ineradicable, at a high never-ending cost to world in terms of economic growth, human health and lives. The current strategy adopted by most governments is to impose  restrictive measures when the virus threatens to overwhelm hospital services and to relax these restrictions as this danger recedes. This is short-sighted. It cannot eliminate the highly infectious delta variant, which has an estimated R0-value of between 6 & 9. Periodic lockdowns will be hard to avoid in the future.

However, eradication is possible, herd immunity can be achieved quickly worldwide, reducing the R0 permanently to below 1, which will lead to the disappearance of the virus. Critical in achieving this is Ivermectin, a medicine that is cheap,  readily available and can be manufactured by most countries. A recent meta study has shown that Ivermectin, prophylactically employed, can prevent infection with the virus  by 86 % on average – very similar to the efficacy of vaccines. Eradication will require employment of all the instruments shown in the graph: future generations do not have to live with this plague. 

Simulasi Pemodelan Penyebaran COVID-19 di Indonesia + Prokes

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

Model based on several references:
1. https://insightmaker.com/insight/4iVOp2JcrDSTBvqjER7pxM/TA-Pemsim-SEIR-Covid-19-Model
2. https://insightmaker.com/insight/5GiU0WZLpKCLGOoe6xeIhT/SEIR-COVID-19-New-Kl-1
3. https://insightmaker.com/insight/DaOeZ0N9RcgU1Q87ofIj8/COVID-19-SEIR-Model-for-Indonesia

Locus set on Indonesia, during 2021