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If no attempt is made to eradicate SARS-CoV-2 it will eventually become endemic, ineradicable, at a high never-ending cost to world in terms of economic growth, human health and lives. The current strategy adopted by most governments is to impose  restrictive measures when the virus threatens to overwhelm hospital services and to relax these restrictions as this danger recedes. This is short-sighted. It cannot eliminate the highly infectious delta variant, which has an estimated R0-value of between 6 & 9. Periodic lockdowns will be hard to avoid in the future.

However, eradication is possible, herd immunity can be achieved quickly worldwide, reducing the R0 permanently to below 1, which will lead to the disappearance of the virus. Critical in achieving this is Ivermectin, a medicine that is cheap,  readily available and can be manufactured by most countries. A recent meta study has shown that Ivermectin, prophylactically employed, can prevent infection with the virus  by 86 % on average – very similar to the efficacy of vaccines. Eradication will require employment of all the instruments shown in the graph: future generations do not have to live with this plague. 

SarsCov 2: Countering its Dynamic
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Model description:

This model is designed to simulate the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie in Tasmania. It also tell us the impact of economic policies on outbreak models and economic growth.

 

Variables:

The simulation takes into account the following variables and its adjusting range: 

 

On the left of the model, the variables are: infection rate( from 0 to 0.25), recovery rate( from 0 to 1), death rate( from 0 to 1), immunity loss rate( from 0 to 1), test rate ( from 0 to 1), which are related to Covid-19.

 

In the middle of the model, the variables are: social distancing( from 0 to 0.018), lock down( from 0 to 0.015), quarantine( from 0 to 0.015), vaccination promotion( from 0 to 0.019), border restriction( from 0 to 0.03), which are related to governmental policies.

 

On the right of the model, the variables are: economic growth rate( from 0 to 0.3), which are related to economic growth.

 

Assumptions:

(1) The model is influenced by various variables and can produce different results. The following values based on the estimation, which differ from actual values in reality.

 

(2) Here are just five government policies that have had an impact on infection rates in epidemic models. On the other hand, these policies will also have an impact on economic growth, which may be positive or negative.

 

(3) Governmental policy will only be applied when reported cases are 10 or more. 

 

(4) This model lists two typical economic activities, namely e-commerce and physical stores. Government policies affect these two types of economic activity separately. They together with economic growth rate have an impact on economic growth.

 

Enlightening insights:

(1) In the first two weeks, the number of susceptible people will be significantly reduced due to the high infection rate, and low recovery rate as well as government policies. The number of susceptible people fall slightly two weeks later. Almost all declines have a fluctuating downward trend.

 

(2) Government policies have clearly controlled the number of deaths, suspected cases and COVID-19 cases.

 

(3) The government's restrictive policies had a negative impact on economic growth, but e-commerce economy, physical stores and economic growth rate all played a positive role in economic growth, which enabled the economy to stay in a relatively stable state during the epidemic.

Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania
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Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus 

Clone of SEIR Infectious Disease Model for COVID-19
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Tugas 1_Akhdhan Muhammad Muaz_04411740000017_Pemodelan Transportasi Laut

Dosen Pengampu: Dr-Ing Ir. Setyo Nugroho
Pemodelan Virus Covid-19 di Indonesia
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Covid-19
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​Tugas 3 Pemodelan Transportasi Laut 
 
STUDI KASUS : Simulasi Penyebaran Virus Corona atau COVID-19 di Indonesia dengan aplikasi Insight Maker
TUGAS 3_IGedeBagusIndraDanendra_04411740000036_Pemodelan Transportasi Laut
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COVID-19 Model
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This Agent-based Model was an idea of Christopher DICarlo "Disease Transmission with Agent Based Model' aims to present the COVID cases in Puerto Princesa City as of June 3, 2021

Insight author: Jolina Rosile Magbanua

Clone of Clone of Clone of ABM Model of COVID-19 in Puerto Princesa City
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comportamiento de la población Afectada por el Covid-19
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Exemple de modélisation
https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg
Les chiffres 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-symptoms/
Modélisation Covid-19 aka Coronavirus
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COVID-19 in USA (ag.m) - 2021
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Ковид Африка
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Cameroon COVID-19
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COVID-19 model with hospitalizations and deaths
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Could Video Games and Other Entertainment Help Slow the Spread of COVID-19?
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The Infection / Recovery & Immune / Rate of a Global a Population of 8.2 Billion People.
The Pandemic Management of COVID-19 - Richard A. Estefan
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Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

Clone of SEIRD 01: COVID-19 spread
Insight diagram

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

MM0 - SEIRD 01: COVID-19 spread
Insight diagram

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

Clone of SEIRD 01: COVID-19 spread
Insight diagram

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus 

Clone of SEIR Infectious Disease Model for COVID-19
Insight diagram
SD 2 COVID-19 Policy
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COVID-19 ABM model