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SD 2 COVID-19 Policy

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

We add simple containment meassures that affect different paramenters.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Hong Kong.

The questions that we want to answer in this kind of models are not the shape of the curves, that are almost known from the beginning, but, when this happens, and the amplitude of the shapes. This is crucial, since in the current circumstance implies the collapse of certain resources, not only healthcare.

COVID-19 spread without containment measures

Pol Bernaus

comportamiento de la población Afectada por el Covid-19

Elvis Mariano Evangelista Medina

Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.

We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured in

https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model

Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure

With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.

Resources:

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2020spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-MAA.nb
https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model

SD India

Алина Чеботарь

The model here shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie Tasmania, which has impacted in the local economy. the relationship between COVID-19 and economic situation has been shown in the graph. Based on the susceptible and exposed rate, the period of spreading can be controlled by lockdown policy.

Susceptible can be exposed by go out. resident has a possibility to infect and be infected by others. The infection rate, new cases, immunity rate as well as doing exercise can effect the recovery rate. The economy situation is proportionate to the recovery rate. If there are more recovery rate from the pandemic, the economy situation will recover as well.

BMA 708--Assignment 3

Yifei MAO

COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania Simulation Model

Introduction:

This model simulates the COVID-19 outbreak situation in Burnie and how the government responses impact local economy. The COVID-19 pandemic spread is influenced by several factors including infection rate, recovery rate, death rate and government's intervention policies.Government's policies reduce the infection spread and also impact economic activities in Burnie, especially its tourism and local businesses.

Assumptions:

- This model was built based on different rates, including infection rate, recovery rate, death rate, testing rate and economic growth rate. There can be difference between

this model and reality.

- This model considers tourism and local business are the main industries influencing local economy in Burnie.

- Government's intervention policies will positive influence on local COVID-19 spread but also negative impact on local economic activity.

- When there are more than 10 COVID-19 cases confirmed, the government policies will be triggered, which will brings effects both restricting the virus spread and reducing local economic growth.

- Greater COVID-19 cases will negatively influence local economic activities.

Interesting Insights:

Government's vaccination policy will make a important difference on restricting the infection spread. When vaccination rate increase, the number of deaths, infected people and susceptible people all decrease. This may show the importance of the role of government's vaccination policy.

When confirmed cases is more than 10, government's intervention policies are effective on reducing the infections, meanwhile local economic activities will be reduced.

BMA708-Tian Liang-586868-Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania