Goodwin cycle IM-2010 with debt and taxes added, modified from Steve Keen. THis can be extended by adding the Ponzi effect of borrowing for speculative investment.

Peak oil will occur when it is too expensive to bring oil to the surface and not when reserves reach their limit. Companies must make a profit to be able to extract oil and stay in the oil business.  However, that endeavour is becoming more and more difficult because of diminishing returns. They have to dig ever deeper to get to the oil  at ever increasing costs, and the oil they find deep down is of a lesser quality.  We have now reached a point where the price needed by oil companies to make a profit and stay in business is far higher than the price  the market can bear. That price is probably about $ 100 per barrel - and rising every year! A market price o $ 100 will almost certainly cause a sharp recession and cause the price of oil to fall back beyond the point of profitability. For example, the combined profit of ExxonMobile, Chevron and Conocophillips fell from 80.4 billion in 2011 to only 3.7 billon in 2016 - see URL below. What the market can bear depends on the spending power of the mass of non-elite workers. The CLD shows the negative feedback loops that prevent oil prices to rise above the level of  affordability. If non-elite workers cannot afford the goods and services offered,  then there will be no demand for them and by extension for oil.  In this situation the market price will not the cover the cost that oil companies need to extract oil. Oil supplies will decline and so will economic activity!

https://srsroccoreport.com/the-blood-bath-continues-in-the-u-s-major-oil-industry/

An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.

Scott Page's Aggregation diagram from Complexity and Sociology 2015 article see also IM-9115 and SA IM-1163

There is an old saying that says that 'opportunity makes thieves'.  But there is  also a research paper entitled 'Opportunity makes the Thief: Practical Theory of Crime Prevention (1998)' that provides evidence supporting this common observation. The paper argues that  opportunity is a “root cause” of crime. This therefore also applies to the behaviour of corporations.

 

The Causal Loop Diagram on the left indicates that the number of crimes will  increase rapidly as the opportunities to commit them increases.  This suggests that the introduction of a negative feedback loop aimed at diminishing  opportunities for committing crimes is an appropriate measure to improve the situation. A number of remedial mesures  tailored to specific situations are contained in the report. A generally effective means must be the use of law and regulations that were also mentioned in the report.

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

What we can learn from a child?  

Everything! 

I certainly learned everything after one day spent judging high school students who researched the industrial impacts on planet and people in under-developed parts of the world.  

Students are supported by an industry advisory board who funds and staffs the two regional events. I was one of the IAB members representing Parents at Large.

The program has a parent, teacher and works with students from 5th grade to high school graduation ensuring and advocating students are attending the courses required for a four year university in STEM subjects.  Underperforming schools and districts randomly assign courses without regard for A-G requirements.  Parents have no way to dispute nor are they aware of the systemic challenges faced by districts serving low income students. Even if students get into the right courses, they are often not scheduled to take the SAT test (another university entrance requirement).  Even advanced course students are not guaranteed they will be registered.  

MESA Program statistics indicate many participants had the criteria to go into a 4 year university.  Only a small percentage actually enrolled.  One point of failure in these dismal outcomes pertains to the high school administration practice which only submits a small group for SAT Testing.  Eliminating the remainder of eager students, with this one decision destroying the hopes and dreams of low income students.  "You weren't submitted for the SAT, because you need to attend Community College" statement made to several advanced placement students. These students worked for years as participants in the MESA Program, completing annual robotics projects from grade 5 into their senior year of high school.                                                                                                            Our future leaders could benefit from a different approach to higher education.  Why is different so important?  The point of failure mentioned above, is a systemic failure caused by failures in equality.  The higher crime and homelessness are two direct outcomes or opportunities we can reverse if we allow students in our hardest to reach communities to earn a Six Sigma belt path in experience based learning.  Replicate the MESA Schools projects in all hard to reach populations.  Partnering Universities, public and private sector organizations financing the development of shared service centers.   

Our youth have great potential and passion for understanding problems effecting their environments whether social, economic or cultural.  

The only thing missing in today's contestants "having the access to accurate information which they can decipher into knowledge and the means to experience corrective action which should result in value based wisdom gained from experience."

Ideally, the wisdom shared in a free online visualization tool would be a means to leverage work done by academics and system thinkers.  Progressive educators are using this tool to debate various topics of importance all over the world.  

See debategraph

Climate change

http://debategraph.org/Stream.aspx?nid=610&vt=spacetree&dc=focus

Planet under pressure

http://debategraph.org/planet

London agenda on cyberspace

http://debategraph.org/Stream.aspxnid=121532&vt=spacetree&dc=focus

Prosperity without growth

http://debategraph.org/Stream.aspx?nid=32883&vt=spacetree&dc=focu

Thank you to all the students who allowed me to judge their wonderful speeches.  It was a crash course in work I shared with LinkedIn group "System Thinking World" using Insight Maker.  

I made this feedback loop as an illustration in a column.

Addition to Program Evaluation Insight based on Health System Efficiency WHO Europe 2016 publication includes vital signs

I made this as an illustration of a piece of text I read in Regenerative Economics, household economics.