This version 8B of the CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATION model. A net Benefit ROI has been added. The Compare results feature allows comparison of alternative intervention portfolios. Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format. Relative magnitudes and durations of impact remain in need of further data & adjustment (calibration). In the interests of maintaining steady progress and respecting budget & time constraints, significant simplifying assumptions have been made: assumptions that mitigate both completeness & accuracy of the outputs. This model meets the criteria for a Capability demonstration model, but should not be taken as complete or realistic in terms of specific magnitudes of effect or sufficient build out of causal dynamics. Rather, the model demonstrates the interplay of a minimum set of causal forces on a net student progress construct -- as informed and extrapolated from the non-causal research literature. Provided further interest and funding, this basic capability model may further developed and built out to: higher provenance levels -- coupled with increased factorization, rigorous causal inclusion and improved parameterization.
Version 8B with story: Calibrated Student-Home-Teachers-Classroom-LEA-Spending
This model shows the operation of a simple economy. It demonstrates the effect of changes in the fractional rate of consumption (or the converse the fractional rate of saving.)
In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of production and consumption in the long-run.
This high-level
simulation model presented by Jay Forrester in his book World Dynamics, simulates
socio-economic-environmental world system. The world Model was created in a
time where pollution and other negative effects of industrialization and
economic growth started to become recognized in 1970. For this exam purpose, we have
rebuilt the model to do some experiments and analyze the results.
This model illustrates the current practice and consequences of government spending. Following the
direction of the arrows from right to left the model shows the following sequence
based on current practice:
Government
Spending at a certain point leads to spending in excess of tax receipts. This
will automatically lead to the issue of treasuries in the belief that the excess
spending must be financed by borrowing (although the government has the capacity
to create money). This in turn will
increase the national debt.
Consequences that follow from this practice:
1) That national
debt increases whenever the government spends in excess of tax receipts.
2) That the
government must pay interest on the debt issued, which in turn increases and
reinforces the need for government spending.
3) That the
interest paid on treasuries will increase private sector income.
There is an
alternative view, supported by Modern Monetary Theory, of how government spending
can proceed. Please see this Insight:
This
paper aims at describing a case where system dynamics modeling was used to evaluate
the effects of information and material supply lead-time variation on sales
contributions margins and operating cash conversion cycle of a commodity export
business. An empirical dynamic model,
loaded with econometric theory of price effect on competitive demand, was used
to describe the input data. The model simulation
outputs proved themselves relevant in analyzing the complex interconnections of
multiple variables affecting the
profitability in a commercial routine, supporting the decision process among
sales managers.
This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Jim Gilmore's
economic policy based on the information at: http://www.gilmoreforamerica.com/jims-growth-code/ The method used is Integrative
Propositional Analysis (IPA)
available:
http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf
