Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.
Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.
Do you like travelling? Find out how we can help make it more sustainable!    Images used:   Suitcase:    http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/animaljam/images/a/ab/Travel-suitcase_(1).png/revision/latest?cb=20140907211051   Fiji:  http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/91c1263a2a357b3673af8ff8362c0c8d?w
Do you like travelling? Find out how we can help make it more sustainable!

Images used:
Suitcase: 
http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/animaljam/images/a/ab/Travel-suitcase_(1).png/revision/latest?cb=20140907211051
Fiji: http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/91c1263a2a357b3673af8ff8362c0c8d?width=1024
Hotels:
https://taj.tajhotels.com/content/dam/luxury/hotels/taj-palace-delhi/images/master2/16x7/38849817-H1-Exterior_1-16x7.jpg
Poverty:
http://www.montana.edu/extensionecon/images/povertywordcloud.jpg
Leverage Point
https://image.slidesharecdn.com/genderinintegratedsystemsresearchbycynthiamcdougallseniorscientistgenderequitythemeleader-150311041710-conversion-gate01/95/gender-in-integrated-systems-research-by-cynthia-mcdougall-senior-scientist-gender-equity-theme-leader-25-638.jpg?cb=1426065542

Sources:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/270422/forecast-for-2020-arrivals-of-foreign-tourists-worldwide/

http://www.sustainabletourism.net

Week 10 Lecture- Dr. David Tindall Lecture pdf

https://www.adb.org/countries/fiji/poverty

Economic Impact of Tourism on Fiji's Economy: Empirical Evidence from Computable General Equilibrium Model by Paresh Kumar Narayan

https://www.wttc.org/-/media/files/reports/economic%20impact%20research/countries%202015/fiji2015.pdf

http://sustainabletravel.org/our-work/regional-alliances/pacific/hotel-sustainable-resources-pacific/

http://reusegraywater.com/about-us/

Rubin, K.E., The Valuation of Hotels and Motels for Assessment Purposes, 1984

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leverage-point_modeling

Meadows, D.H., & Wright, D. (2009). Thinking in systems: a primer, London: Earthscan.






 FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION     BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!    (governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)  The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed  The chaotic turbulence is the result of th
FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION 
 BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!
(governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept and flawed strategy of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

 Model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania     This model was designed from SIR model(susceptible, infected, revovered) to find out the effect of covid-19 outbreak into economic outcomes via government policy.     Assumptions     The government policy is triggered when number of infected is mor
Model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

This model was designed from SIR model(susceptible, infected, revovered) to find out the effect of covid-19 outbreak into economic outcomes via government policy.

Assumptions

The government policy is triggered when number of infected is more than ten.

The government policies will take negative effect into Covid-19 outbreaks and financial system

Parameters

We set some fixed and adjusted variables.
Covid-19 outbreak's parameter
Fixed parameters: Infection rate, Background disease, recovery rate.
Adjusted parameter: Immunity loss rate can be change from vaccination rate.

Government policy's parameters
Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)

Economic's parameters
Fixed parameter: Tourism
Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)

Interesting insight

Increase vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number amount of infected case and a little bit more negative effect to economic system. However economic system still need a long time to recover in both cases.
Fig 17.15 p700 Causal
structure of commercial real estate markets of Case Study from John Sterman's 2000 Business Dynamics Book 
Fig 17.15 p700 Causal structure of commercial real estate markets of Case Study from John Sterman's 2000 Business Dynamics Book 
WIP Summary of MIchael Hudson's  Book  Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt destroy the Global Economy 
WIP Summary of MIchael Hudson's Book Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt destroy the Global Economy 
​ Description  This model attempts to show the complex interactions between the youth population of Bourke, the justice system, and community engagement programs. This model takes into consideration 3 key variables; the current socio-economic climate of Bourke, the number of police officers, and gov
Description
This model attempts to show the complex interactions between the youth population of Bourke, the justice system, and community engagement programs. This model takes into consideration 3 key variables; the current socio-economic climate of Bourke, the number of police officers, and government funding allocated for community engagement programs. The models goal is to simulate the effects of the above specified variables on the youth population of Bourke. 

Component Explanation 
Total Youth Population - The total youth population of Bourke, set to an initial value of 100 to represent 100% of the youth population. 

Stable Youth Population - Stable youth population is representing the proportion of youth in Bourke that have a stable upbringing and are not at risk of committing crime. Proportion can be altered by use of the socio-economic factors slider. 

At Risk Youth Population - At risk youth population is representing the proportion of youth in Bourke that have an unstable upbringing and are at risk of committing crime. Proportion can be altered by use of the socio-economic factors slider. 

Youth Crime - Is the amount of crime being committed by youth in Bourke. 

Youth Detention - Is the amount of youth being detained for criminal activity.  

Participants in Community Engagement Programs - The amount of the youth population that are being engaged to participate in community programs, such as football or netball clubs. 

Youth Run Community Programs - Youth that have been engaged by community programs who go that step further and become more heavily involved in there club, such as coaching or youth leadership roles. 
*NOTE* The goal of this stock is to attract at risk youth that are only involved as their friends are running it and take them out of that at risk population stock. 

Socio-Economic Factors - Takes into consideration the factors of government and economy to give a proportion of stable and at risk youth. Slider goes between 0 and 1, 0=100% at risk, 1= 100% stable. 

Police Officers - The amount of police officers present in Bourke. Slider goes between 2 and 53, 2 assuming 1 officer is  patrolling and 1 running the station. 53 as the average wage of a NSW police officer is $75000, so with $4000000 available 53 is the most that Bourke could pay. 

Program Funding - The funding for community engagement programs. The more higher funding for a the programs the higher the level of youth engagement. Slider values between $25000 and $3850000 as it shares the same $4000000 that the police wages come out of. 
*NOTE* program funding slider set step at $75000, which is the average annual salary of a police officer. 
*NOTE* when program funding goes up 1 slider step the police officer slider step must go down and vice versa. In order to maintain the $4000000 available for use.  

Interesting Results
- The populations follow a cyclic trend based on the 6 month detention youth offenders. 

-With a smaller amount of police officers and a higher funding for community programs a high proportion of at risk youth get involved with community programs instead of crime. 

- With a high amount of police officers and little funding for community programs. The stable youth population goes on a upward trend and the at risk youth population turn to crime and end up in detention. 

WIP for planning  some relevant online M&S Learning Communities for Health
WIP for planning  some relevant online M&S Learning Communities for Health
  Assignment Four - Big Data & Marketing Analytics MKT563     Student No : 94040609      Trish Anderson         The Maranguka Justice Reinvestment (JR) project is a community led program that demonstrates how the redirection of government funding into community programs can address underlying is

Assignment Four - Big Data & Marketing Analytics MKT563

Student No : 94040609

Trish Anderson


The Maranguka Justice Reinvestment (JR) project is a community led program that demonstrates how the redirection of government funding into community programs can address underlying issues which lead to crime in the community (KPMG, 2018). This interactive model shows how the redirection of funding from the Justice System into Community Programs improves the rate of year 12 graduates, reduces the number of incidents of domestic violence whilst reducing the number of days spent in custody. This model also shows how investment in Community Programs leads to positive economic impacts for the Community as well as cost savings for the Justice System over time.

 

One of the key findings of the Maranguka JP project found that redirecting funding from the Justice system into the Community has multiple benefits. This model begins with NSW government funding on a scale from 0 to 1000 which can be adjusted using the sliders based on available funding, sliding the scale to the right increases the available funding. The % Community Funding and % Justice System Funding variables can then be adjusted in the sliders to determine how much of the funding goes to the community as a percentage and how much of the available funding gets allocated to the justice system.  

 

Investment into Community Programs is made available by the investments into the Bourke community.  Community Leaders in the Bourke Community develop programs and each program has shown to have a positive impact on the number of students graduating year 12 in the community, the number of domestic violence incidents and the number of days spent in custody.

 

Variables

The current number of Year 12 graduates, the current number of domestic violence incidents and the current number of days in Custody are input into the sliders on the hand panel and the model simulation will show how these figures are impacted through investment in the community over time. These variables also contribute to the growth of Youth Development, Family Strength and Adult Empowerment in the community. These factors result in reinvestment opportunities, which have positive economic impacts on the community. Savings are also passed back to the justice system as underlying issues in the community are addressed over time.

 

The slider scale on the right hand panel uses six adjustable variables to model how the rate of investment in the community can impact the rate of positive impacts in the community and the rate of reinvestment opportunities that can be achieved. Running the simulation will show the larger the % of Community Funding, the faster the results can be seen over time and the greater the economic impact and justice system savings will be. The smaller the % Community Funding will show how impacts are still positive but occur over a longer period of time.

 

% Community Funding and % Justice System are a percentage of funding whereas NSW Government Funding is represented in dollars ($). NSW Government Funding is on a scale from 0 to 1000 but the assumed scale is $000’s, where 1,000 equals $1,000,000.

 

 

Parameter Settings

With community funding, the amount of Year 12 graduates increases by 31% (KPMG, 2018)

With community funding, the number of Domestic Violence incidents decreases by 23% (KPMG, 2018) (KPMG, 2018)

With community funding, the number of days spent in custody decreases by 42% KPMG, 2018)

Reinvestment opportunities contribute to 1/3 of economic impacts back the community where 2/3 of the reinvestment opportunities contribute to savings within the Justice System KPMG, 2018).

 

Assumptions

The rate of impact on year 12 graduating students, Domestic Violence Incidents and Days spent in custody changes at the same rate of % Community Funding available to the community.

 

References

 

Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving young people from a life of crime. (Thompson, G). abc.net.au.

KPMG. (2018). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project Impact Assessment. Retrieved from https://www.justreinvest.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Maranguka-Justice-Reinvestment-Project-KPMG-Impact-Assessment-FINAL-REPORT.pdf

Overview of Part E Ch 20 to 24 of Mitchell Wray and Watts Textbook see  IM-164967  for book overview
Overview of Part E Ch 20 to 24 of Mitchell Wray and Watts Textbook see IM-164967 for book overview
Based on the Market and Price simulation model in System Zoo 3, Z504. I made some more intrusive changes that make the model more realistic, or more 'economic', in another version 'simplified and improved'. 
Based on the Market and Price simulation model in System Zoo 3, Z504. I made some more intrusive changes that make the model more realistic, or more 'economic', in another version 'simplified and improved'. 
 Overview:   The model shows the industry competition and relationship between Forrestry and Mountain Bike Trip in Derby, Tasmania. The aim of the simulation is to find a balance between the co-existence of these two industry.      How Does the Model Work?       Both industries will generate incomes
Overview: 
The model shows the industry competition and relationship between Forrestry and Mountain Bike Trip in Derby, Tasmania. The aim of the simulation is to find a balance between the co-existence of these two industry.

How Does the Model Work?

Both industries will generate incomes. Firstly, income is generated from the sale of timber through logging. In addition, income is also generated from the consumption of mountain bike riders. Regarding to the Forrestry industry, people cut down trees because there is a market demand for timber. The timber is sold for profits. However, the experience of mountain biking tourism is largely affected by the low regeneration rate of trees and the degradation of the environment and landscape due to tree felling. People have better riding experiences when trees are abundant and the scenery is beautiful. People's satisfaction and expectations depend on the scenery and experience. Recommendations of past riders will also impact the tourists amount.

Interesting Insights

The income generated by logging can provide a significant economic contribution to Tasmania, but excessive logging can lead to environmental problems and a reduction in visitors. Excessive logging can lead to a decline in tourism in the mountains, which will affect tourism. Despite the importance of forestry, tourism can also provide a significant economic contribution to Tasmania. The government should find a balance between the two industries while maintaining the number of tourists.