Este modelo es una copia de "Goodwin Business Cycle". Quité al menos una variable y aproximé la relación discreta entre el nivel de empleo y el crecimiento anual del salario con una función basada en la tangente hiperbólica.
Goodwin cycle IM-2010 with debt and taxes added, modified from Steve Keen's illustration of Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis "stability begets instability". This can be extended by adding the Ponzi effect of borrowing for speculative investment.
Clusters of interacting methods for improving health services network design and delivery. Includes Forrester quotes on statistical vs SD methods and the Modeller's dilemma. Simplified version of IM-14982 combined with IM-17598 and IM-9773
This model simulates the economics of buying a home. It was created to compare buying a home against using investment returns to pay for rent. According to Micheal Finke, house prices typically run 20x monthly rental rates.
Try cloning this insight, setting the parameter values for real-world scenarios, and then running sensitivity analysis (see tools) to determine the likely wealth outcomes. Compare buying a home to renting. Note that each run will keep the parameters the same while simulating market volatility.
Peak oil will occur when it is too expensive to
bring oil to the surface and not when reserves reach their limit. Companies
must make a profit to be able to extract oil and stay in the oil business. However, that endeavour is becoming more and
more difficult because of diminishing returns. They have to dig ever deeper to
get to the oil at ever increasing costs,
and the oil they find deep down is of a lesser quality. We have now reached a point where the price
needed by oil companies to make a profit and stay in business is far higher
than the price the market can bear. That
price is probably about $ 100 per barrel - and rising every year! A market
price o $ 100 will almost certainly cause a sharp recession and cause the price
of oil to fall back beyond the point of profitability. For example, the combined
profit of ExxonMobile, Chevron and Conocophillips fell from 80.4 billion in
2011 to only 3.7 billon in 2016 - see URL below. What the market can bear depends
on the spending power of the mass of non-elite workers. The CLD shows the negative
feedback loops that prevent oil prices to rise above the level of affordability. If non-elite workers cannot
afford the goods and services offered, then there will be no demand for them and by
extension for oil. In this situation the
market price will not the cover the cost that oil companies need to extract
oil. Oil supplies will decline and so will economic activity!
The model shows the industry connection and conflict between Forestry and Mountain Tourism in Derby, Tasmania. The objective of this simulation is to find out the balance point for co-exist.
How Does the Model Work?
Both industries can provide economic contribution to Tasmania. Firstly, selling timbers through logging would generate income. Also, spendings from mountain bike riders would generate incomes. However, low tree regrowth rate can not cover up logging, which influences the beautiful vistas and riders' experiences. While satisfaction and expectation depend on vistas and experience, the demand of mountain biking would be influenced through repeat visits and world of mouth as well.
Interesting Insights
Although forestry can provide a great amount of economic contribution to Tasmania, over logging goes against ESG framework as well as creating conflict with mountain tourism. As long as the number of rider visits is stable, tourism can always provide a greater economic contribution compared to forestry. Therefore, the government should consider the balance point between two industries.
Simulation of Derby Mountain Bikes versus Forestry
People, generally, do not seem to be conscious of, or care
about, the enormous dangers of climate change and even the possibility of a
devastating war in the Korean peninsula that could turn nuclear. They carry on
with their routine and banal conversations as if that was all that mattered. In
the 60s there were peace demonstration, there was more awareness and public engagement
in the face of the thread of nuclear war. Could the pressures and demands of modern
capitalism, now no longer tamed by a competing communist system that could potentially
appear to be more attractive, be a causal factor? People caught up in the turmoil of a positive
feedback loop rarely perceive reality beyond it. This simple CLD tries to
illustrate the dynamic and feedback loops that could be responsible for this strange
apathy and how our present day economic system could be blinding us to imminent
danger.
Simple model of the global economy, the global carbon cycle, and planetary energy balance.
The planetary energy balance model is a two-box model, with shallow and deep ocean heat reservoirs. The carbon cycle model is a 4-box model, with the atmosphere, shallow ocean, deep ocean, and terrestrial carbon.
The economic model is based on the Kaya identity, which decomposes CO2 emissions into population, GDP/capita, energy intensity of GDP, and carbon intensity of energy. It allows for temperature-related climate damages to both GDP and the growth rate of GDP.
This model was originally created by Bob Kopp (Rutgers University) in support of the SESYNC Climate Learning Project.
