Peak oil will occur when it is too expensive to
bring oil to the surface and not when reserves reach their limit. Companies
must make a profit to be able to extract oil and stay in the oil business. However, that endeavour is becoming more and
more difficult because of diminishing returns. They have to dig ever deeper to
get to the oil at ever increasing costs,
and the oil they find deep down is of a lesser quality. We have now reached a point where the price
needed by oil companies to make a profit and stay in business is far higher
than the price the market can bear. That
price is probably about $ 100 per barrel - and rising every year! A market
price o $ 100 will almost certainly cause a sharp recession and cause the price
of oil to fall back beyond the point of profitability. For example, the combined
profit of ExxonMobile, Chevron and Conocophillips fell from 80.4 billion in
2011 to only 3.7 billon in 2016 - see URL below. What the market can bear depends
on the spending power of the mass of non-elite workers. The CLD shows the negative
feedback loops that prevent oil prices to rise above the level of affordability. If non-elite workers cannot
afford the goods and services offered, then there will be no demand for them and by
extension for oil. In this situation the
market price will not the cover the cost that oil companies need to extract
oil. Oil supplies will decline and so will economic activity!
This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Rand Paul's
economic policy based on the information at: https://www.randpaul.com/issue/spending-and-debt and also https://www.randpaul.com/issue/taxes The method used is Integrative
Propositional Analysis (IPA)
available:
http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf
Simplification of Prevention Investment Framework (private) IM See WIP integrating with economic view insight (private) and multiscale version IM private
Graph representation of Ch3 of their 2007 Monetary Economics book, based on Alvarez and Ehnts 2015 paper The roads not taken. Also see more complex WIP to successively split sectors at IM-185550 . See also essence of MMT IM for simpler intro
Very basic stock-flow diagram of simple interest with table and graph output in interest, bank account and savings development per year. Initial deposit, interest rate, yearly deposit and withdrawal, and initial balance bank account can all be modified.
I have developed a lesson plan in which students work on both simple and compound interest across both IM and Excel. I also wrote an article about this in Dutch, which you can translate using for example Google Translate: https://kdrive.infomaniak.com/app/share/1524656/93e2021a-6fc1-4b2c-8bcd-643a607526db
Also have a look at some of my other diagrams, for example: https://insightmaker.com/insight/6hPaqcl0YETrQcWKYkXeu2
Stock-Flow diagram of savings account - simple interest
WIP Elements from macroeconomics, neoliberalism and commercial determinants of health frameworks to provide a background to the effects of the universal basic income on health and wellbeing for the first 1000 days. UBI diagram modified from Johnson2021 article Expanded in Insight 2
Employment and Welfare Interventions Effect on the first 1000 days 1
A single resource is used with a constant rate and converted into products in use. After a while, these products become unusable because of aging. The recycling of these unusable products is imperfect, thus the amount of not recyclable resource grows (until a better recycling process is invented).
