Assignment 1- Part 2 Energy Economics and Fossil Fuels

This model shows the negative effects of COVID 19 outbreak in Philippines which has impacted the  economy and mortality. The relationship between COVID-19 to economic situation and death rate has been shown in the graph. Based on the model, lacking of government policy indicates an increased in COVID 19 cases. Thus, result in rapid increase of poverty caused by unemployment   and disruption of business establishments which is are both indicator of economic crises. Moreover, rapid increased of COVID cases and suffering due to economic crisis results to an increased of death rate.

Description:

An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Lindsey Graham's economic policy based on the information at: http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/restore-fiscal-discipline/     http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/ease-tax-and-regulatory-burdens/      http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/achieve-energy-independence/     http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/reform-entitlements/       The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: ​ http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

A government deficit means that more money has been transferred in the form of payments or investments from the government sector to the private sector than the government has received in taxes. As shown in the drawing,  GOVERNMENT DEFICIT = INCOME AND SAVING for the private sector. Not all the income transferred from the government to the private sector will be employed and some of it will be saved in bank accounts. It is therefore correct to say that Government Deficits lead to Private Sector Saving. It is equally true to say that Investment  leads to Saving. This is important because in the current recession one of the major problems is the massive amount of private debt. In these circumstances a cumulative government deficit is necessary to help the private sector save and repay some of its debt. Note: I have not taken into account the foreign sector here which can also contribute to private sector income and saving.

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

This high-level simulation model presented by Jay Forrester in his book World Dynamics, simulates socio-economic-environmental world system. The world Model was created in a time where pollution and other negative effects of industrialization and economic growth started to become recognized in 1970. For this exam purpose, we have rebuilt the model to do some experiments and analyze the results. 

This insight includes a Limits to Success archetype. (Bubbles colored with a darker blue)

Implementação do modelo Handy.

Referência:

Motesharrei, S.; Rivas, J.; Kalnay, E. "Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): Modelling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies". Ecological Economics 101 (2014) 90-102

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800914000615

Directly inspired from Meadows - Thinking in Systems, a Primer, from page 66 and on. This model needs to be adapted for the operating costs.

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Rick Perry's economic policy based on the information at: https://rickperry.org/issues/​ The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: ​ http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

This model simulates a COVID outbreak occurring at Burnie, Tasmania. It links the extent to the pandemic with governments intervention policies aiming to limit the spread of the virus. The other part of the model illustrates how will the COVID statistics and the government enforcement jointly influence the economic environment in the community. A number of variables are taken into account, indicating positive or negative relationship in the infection and the economy model respectively.

 

Assumptions

·         Government takes responsive actions when the number of acquired cases exceeds 10.

·         Government’s prompt actions, involving closure of the state border, lockdown within the city, plans on mandatory vaccination and testing, effectively control the infection status.

·         Economic activities are reduced due to stagnation in statewide tourism, closure of brick-and-mortar businesses, and increased unemployment rate, as results of government restrictions.

 

Insights

Government’s rapid intervention can effectively reduce the infected cases. The national vaccination rollout campaign raises vaccination rate in Australians, and particularly influence the death rate in the infection model. Please drag the slider of vaccination to a higher rate and run the model to compare the outcomes.

Although local economy is negatively affected by government restriction policies, consumer demand in online shopping and government support payments neutralize the negative impact on economy and maintain the level of economic activities when infections get controlled. 

Causal loop diagram illustrating a variety of feedback loops influencing the price of oil.

Marine plastic is rapidly increasing due to increasing production and use of plastic in all economic activities, short use times and long life times of plastic, and large mismanagement of plastic waste. With this, the threat plastic poses to the marine biosphere is also increasing and will continue to increase over a long time into the future. Risk knowledge is limited and risk perception and awareness are not resulting in significant mitigation efforts. The case study will aim at modeling the use and life cycles of plastic and the transport paths that lead to plastic entering the ocean. The models will be used to simulate possible futures based on a scenario approach. The results of these efforts will be visualized with the goal to increase risk awareness.