From Jay Forrester 1988 killian lectures youtube video describing system dynamics at MIT. For more detailed biography See Jay Forrester memorial webpage For MIT HIstory see IM-184930 For Applications se IM-185462

The causes of homelessness is illustrated in this causal loop diagram

Description

Model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

This model was designed from the SIR model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19 outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.

Assumptions

The government policy is triggered when the number of infected is more than ten.

The government policies will take a negative effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.

Parameters

We set some fixed and adjusted variables.

Covid-19 outbreak's parameter

Fixed parameters: Infection rate, Background disease, recovery rate.

Adjusted parameter: Immunity loss rate can be changed from vaccination rate.

Government policy's parameters

Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)

Economic's parameters

Fixed parameter: Tourism

Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)

Interesting insight

An increased vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system still needs a long time to recover in both cases.

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Rick Perry's economic policy based on the information at: https://rickperry.org/issues/​ The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: ​ http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

This model is comparing healthy and sick residents in Burnie, Tasmania after the Covid-19 Outbreak in 2020. It will also show how the Burnie economy is effected by the disease, how the Government Health Policies are implemented and how they are enforced.

This model is based on the SIR, Susceptible, Infection, Recovery (or Removed) These are the three possible states related to the members of the Burnie population when a contagious decease spreads.

The Government/Government Health Policy, played a big part in the successful decrease in Covid-19 infections. The Government enforced the following.
- No travel (interstate or international)
- Isolation within the residents homes
- Social distancing by 1.5m
- Quarantine
- Non essential companies to be temporarily closed
- Limitations on public gatherings
- And limits on time and kilometers aloud to travel from ones home within a local community

This resulted in lower reported infection rates of Covid-19 and higher recovery rates.

In my opinion: When the first case was reported the Government could have been even faster to enforce these rules to decrease the fatality rates further for the Burnie, population.  

Assumption: Government policies were only triggered when 10 cases were recorded.
Also, more cases that had been recorded effected the economic growth during this time.

Interesting Findings: In the simulation it shows as the death rates increases towards the end of the week, the rate of testing goes down. You would think that the government would have enforced a higher testing rate over the duration of this time to decrease the number of infections, exposed which would increase the recovery rates faster and more efficiently.  

Figures have been determined by the population of Burnie being 19,380 at the time of assignment.

WIP Summary of Mariana Mazzucato's 2018 book See also IM-901 MacroEc

Like previous models, this model shows the operation of a simple economy, the influence of changes in the consumption rate, and the effect of government intervention. In addition, this model shows changes in the hypothetical general price level. It gives an idea of changes in price trends based on changes in the quantity of money. NOTE: No general price level exists. Prices provide information for the exchange of individual economic goods.

From Schluter et al 2017 article A framework for mapping and comparing behavioural theories in models of social-ecological systems COMSeS2017 video. See also Balke and Gilbert 2014 JASSS article How do agents make decisions? (recommended by Kurt Kreuger U of S)

I made this as an illustration of a piece of text I read in Regenerative Economics, household economics.

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Chris Christi's economic policy based on the information at: https://d70h9a36p82zs.cloudfront.net/Ccpres2016/base/assets/1-0-1/production/Chris-Christie-TheEconomy.pdf   The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: ​ http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

This model has two main components. First is modelling the change in population composition as non-First Nations immigration increases with the opening of new mines in the region. The second is modelling the increasing income disparity between First Nations and non-First Nations as mining jobs are disproportionately gained by non-First Nations workers.

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Rand Paul's economic policy based on the information at:  https://www.randpaul.com/issue/spending-and-debt and also   https://www.randpaul.com/issue/taxes  The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: ​ http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

Causal loop diagram illustrating a variety of feedback loops influencing the price of oil.

This insight includes a Limits to Success archetype. (Bubbles colored with a darker blue)

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

This model simulates a COVID outbreak occurring at Burnie, Tasmania. It links the extent to the pandemic with governments intervention policies aiming to limit the spread of the virus. The other part of the model illustrates how will the COVID statistics and the government enforcement jointly influence the economic environment in the community. A number of variables are taken into account, indicating positive or negative relationship in the infection and the economy model respectively.

 

Assumptions

·         Government takes responsive actions when the number of acquired cases exceeds 10.

·         Government’s prompt actions, involving closure of the state border, lockdown within the city, plans on mandatory vaccination and testing, effectively control the infection status.

·         Economic activities are reduced due to stagnation in statewide tourism, closure of brick-and-mortar businesses, and increased unemployment rate, as results of government restrictions.

 

Insights

Government’s rapid intervention can effectively reduce the infected cases. The national vaccination rollout campaign raises vaccination rate in Australians, and particularly influence the death rate in the infection model. Please drag the slider of vaccination to a higher rate and run the model to compare the outcomes.

Although local economy is negatively affected by government restriction policies, consumer demand in online shopping and government support payments neutralize the negative impact on economy and maintain the level of economic activities when infections get controlled. 

This model is based on the article Dinamic modeling of Infectious Disases, An application to Economic Evaluation of Influenza Vaccination Farmacoeconomics 2008, 26(1): 45-56 .

 

Esto es el modelo a base del articulo: Dinamic modeling of Infectious Disases, An application to Economic Evaluation of Influenza Vaccination Farmacoeconomics 2008, 26(1): 45-56 .