Modern industrial civilisation has created massive
interdependencies which define it and without which it could not function. We all
depend on industrial farming to produce the food we eat, we depend on gasoline
being available at the gas station, on the
availability of electricity and even on the bread supplied by the local baker. Naturally,
we tend to support the institutions that supply the amenities and goods to
which we have become accustomed: if we get our food from the local supermarket,
it is likely that we would be opposed to it’s closure. This means that the economic
system that relies on continuous growth enjoys implicit societal support and that
nothing short of environmental disaster or a shortage of essential raw
materials will impede it’s growing indefinitely. It is not hard to work out the
consequences of this situation!
Clone of The Inescapable Dynamic of Economic Growth (Version 2)
This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Bernie Sanders. The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA)
available:
http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf
This is a system dynamics model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie which shows the process of infections and how government responses, impact on the local economy.
First part is outbreak model, we can know that when people is infected, there are two situations. One is that he recovers from treatment, but even if he recovered, the immunity loss rate increase, makes him to become infected again. The other situation is death. In this outbreak, the government's health policies (ban on non-essential trips, closure of non-essential retailers, limits on public gatherings and quarantine ) help to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 new cases. Moreover, government legislation is dependent on number of COVID-19 cases and testing rates.
Second part: the model of Govt legislation and economic impact. Gov policy can help to reduce infection rate and local economy at same way. The increase of number of COVID-19 cases has a negative impact on local Tourism industry and economic growth rate. On the other hand, Govt legislation also can be change when reported COVID-19 case are less or equal to 10.
Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie(Yafei Shi 489576)
This model was designed from the SIR model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19 outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.
Assumptions
The government policy is triggered when the number of infected is more than ten.
The government policies will take a negative effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.
Adjusted parameter: Immunity loss rate can be changed from vaccination rate.
Government policy's parameters
Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)
Economic's parameters
Fixed parameter: Tourism
Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)
Interesting insight
An increased vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system still needs a long time to recover in both cases.
FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system! (governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)
The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed
The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept and flawed strategy of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks
See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)
COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania Simulation Model
Introduction:
This model simulates the COVID-19 outbreak situation in Burnie and how the government responses impact local economy. The COVID-19 pandemic spread is influenced by several factors including infection rate, recovery rate, death rate and government's intervention policies.Government's policies reduce the infection spread and also impact economic activities in Burnie, especially its tourism and local businesses.
Assumptions:
- This model was built based on different rates, including infection rate, recovery rate, death rate, testing rate and economic growth rate. There can be difference between
this model and reality.
- This model considers tourism and local business are the main industries influencing local economy in Burnie.
- Government's intervention policies will positive influence on local COVID-19 spread but also negative impact on local economic activity.
- When there are more than 10 COVID-19 cases confirmed, the government policies will be triggered, which will brings effects both restricting the virus spread and reducing local economic growth.
- Greater COVID-19 cases will negatively influence local economic activities.
Interesting Insights:
Government's vaccination policy will make a important difference on restricting the infection spread. When vaccination rate increase, the number of deaths, infected people and susceptible people all decrease. This may show the importance of the role of government's vaccination policy.
When confirmed cases is more than 10, government's intervention policies are effective on reducing the infections, meanwhile local economic activities will be reduced.
BMA708-Tian Liang-586868-Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania
