Clusters of interacting methods for improving health services network design and delivery. Includes Forrester quotes on statistical vs SD methods and the Modeller's dilemma. Simplified version of IM-14982 combined with IM-17598 and IM-9773
The statement that there can be no economic activity
without energy and that fossil fuels are
finite contrasts with the fact that money is not finite and can be created by governments
via their central banks at zero marginal cost whenever needed.
An important fact about COAL, GAS and OIL (even
when produced via fracking) is that their net energy ratios are falling rapidly.
In other words the energy needed to extract a given quantity of fossil fuels is
constantly increasing. This ratio (Energy Invested on Energy Returned - EIOER) provides
yet another warning that we can no longer rely on fossil fuels to power our
economies. We cannot wait until the ratio falls to 1/1 before we invest seriously in alternative sources of energy, because by then industrial society as we know it doday will have ceased to exist.
PS: A link between growth in energy consumption and GDP
growth is clearly illustrated on slide 13 of Gail Tverberg's presentaion
entitled ''Oops! The world economy depends on an energy-related bubble''. In
fact, the slide shows that growth in energy consumption usually precedes GDP
growth.
If private bond holdings are going down and the government is running a big deficit then the central bank has to monetize bonds equal to the deficit plus the decrease in private bond holdings. We don't show the details of the central bank buying bonds here, just the net results.
See blog at http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com for more on hyperinflation, including a hyperinflation FAQ.
The macroeconomic ruel: SPENDING = INCOME = OUTPUT, WHICH DRIVES EMPLOYMENT is presented here in a schematic form. Output can be taken to be equivalent to GDP. In order to maintain output it is necessary for all the income earned to be spent. If this is not the case, then companies find they have excess unsold stock on their hands and will cut back on production. This, in time, will lead to an increase in unemployment as companies need fewer employees. The shortfall in spending can be made up by any of the three sectors that contribute to total output. However, in cases where a country has a trade deficit and where the private sector is not spending or investing enough, the only option is for the government to Net Spend i.e. to spend more than it collected in taxes causing a fiscal deficit.
The model shows the industry connection and conflict between Forestry and Mountain Tourism in Derby, Tasmania. The objective of this simulation is to find out the balance point for co-exist.
How Does the Model Work?
Both industries can provide economic contribution to Tasmania. Firstly, selling timbers through logging would generate income. Also, spendings from mountain bike riders would generate incomes. However, low tree regrowth rate can not cover up logging, which influences the beautiful vistas and riders' experiences. While satisfaction and expectation depend on vistas and experience, the demand of mountain biking would be influenced through repeat visits and world of mouth as well.
Interesting Insights
Although forestry can provide a great amount of economic contribution to Tasmania, over logging goes against ESG framework as well as creating conflict with mountain tourism. As long as the number of rider visits is stable, tourism can always provide a greater economic contribution compared to forestry. Therefore, the government should consider the balance point between two industries.
Simulation of Derby Mountain Bikes versus Forestry
This Insight is the first in a series of models that examine the dynamics of population growth and decline in a simple environment. It follows on from a series of four Insights that introduce the basic concepts of Systems Dynamics that start here.
The next Insight model introduces the concept of limits to growth and explores the more complex behaviour this generates. The model can be found here.
The models are based on the activities from an Open University short course that can be accessed here.
Understanding the Environment 101: Population Dynamics
Simple model of the global economy, the global carbon cycle, and planetary energy balance.
The planetary energy balance model is a two-box model, with shallow and deep ocean heat reservoirs. The carbon cycle model is a 4-box model, with the atmosphere, shallow ocean, deep ocean, and terrestrial carbon.
The economic model is based on the Kaya identity, which decomposes CO2 emissions into population, GDP/capita, energy intensity of GDP, and carbon intensity of energy. It allows for temperature-related climate damages to both GDP and the growth rate of GDP.
This model was originally created by Bob Kopp (Rutgers University) in support of the SESYNC Climate Learning Project.
Added several versions of the model. Added a flow to make C increase. Added a factor to be able to change the value 0.5. Older version cloned at IM-46280
This model was designed from the SIR
model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19
outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.
Assumptions:
The government policy is triggered when the
number of infected is more than ten.
The government policies will take a negative
effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.
Parameters:
We set some fixed and adjusted variables.
Covid-19 outbreak's parameter
Fixed parameter: Background
disease.
Adjusted parameters: Infection rate, recovery rate. Immunity loss rate can be
changed from vaccination rate.
Government policy's parameters
Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15
to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social
distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)
Economic's parameters
Fixed parameter: Tourism
Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from
0.3 to 0.5)
Interesting insight
An increased vaccination rate and testing
rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little
more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system
still needs a long time to recover in both cases.
BMA708_Assignment 3_Nguyen Dang Khoa Vo_520272_COVID-19 outbreak and Burnie economy
One of the Archetypes that I see is the way out. The Pioneer Seeds bought will directly keep affecting DuPont's Profit until they start buying Ghanaian corn seeds. My Behavior over Time graphs keep disappearing so, I will just explain them instead. DuPont's Profit will keep going up because so many people like buying the pioneer seeds. Soil Erosion will also go up because there will be more plants growing. Farmers profit will go down because more and more farmers are buying the Pioneer seeds. Affordability of Pioneer Seeds is also going down because of there popularity. The amount of GMO labels is also going down because DuPont feels like it will risk there business. The amount of Pioneer Seeds bought is going up because more and more people keep buying them. The amount of Farming Jobs are going up because more and more people think they will get profit in this business and then it starts to stabilize and goes down a little because they realize farming isn't that good. The amount of Pioneer Seeds is affecting how big the harvest is so, the Harvest is going up. The Amount of Ghanaian Seeds bought is going down because there are more and more Pioneer seeds being bought. Dependency on DuPont is increasing because they need there Pioneer Seeds.
Also my story mode isn't working so sorry about that, but my dad couldn't figure it out either.
This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Jim Webb. The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA)
available:
http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf
DRAFT IPA of Jim Webb POTUS candidate economic policy
