This high-level simulation model presented by Jay Forrester in his book World Dynamics, simulates socio-economic-environmental world system. The world Model was created in a time where pollution and other negative effects of industrialization and economic growth started to become recognized in 1970. For this exam purpose, we have rebuilt the model to do some experiments and analyze the results. 

Description

Model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

This model was designed from the SIR model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19 outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.

Assumptions

The government policy is triggered when the number of infected is more than ten.

The government policies will take a negative effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.

Parameters

We set some fixed and adjusted variables.

Covid-19 outbreak's parameter

Fixed parameters: Infection rate, Background disease, recovery rate.

Adjusted parameter: Immunity loss rate can be changed from vaccination rate.

Government policy's parameters

Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)

Economic's parameters

Fixed parameter: Tourism

Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)

Interesting insight

An increased vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system still needs a long time to recover in both cases.

Simple causal loop diagram of a simple interest savings account.

This model was proposed in a regulatory framework in Brazil. Its main idea is the obtainment of a dynamic control model to avoid the related parties issues on regulated public services over contract extensions. As the terminal condition of these contract extensions is NPV=0, the firms would have an incentive to contract related parties to inflate costs, and diminish their profits, in order to request a larger time extension. So, this system creates a stable "shadow" based on the 5 years before these extensions, where the company did not have such incentives.

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Rick Perry's economic policy based on the information at: https://rickperry.org/issues/​ The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: ​ http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

This model is developed to simulate how Burnie can deal with a new outbreak of COVID-19 considering health and economic outcomes. The time limit of the simulation is 100 days when a stable circumstance is reached. 

Lorenz atractos as an economic model of endogenous cycles.

From Schluter et al 2017 article A framework for mapping and comparing behavioural theories in models of social-ecological systems COMSeS2017 video. See also Balke and Gilbert 2014 JASSS article How do agents make decisions? (recommended by Kurt Kreuger U of S)

WIP Summary of Mariana Mazzucato's 2018 book See also IM-901 MacroEc

This is the summary of lecture ​1 of my Course about StartUps. It's an intro to the startup ecosystem and the different stakeholders that can interact with your new enterprise at different stages of its evolution and growth. -version 1 - for info or suggestions: bonato.pietroz@gmail.com

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Chris Christi's economic policy based on the information at: https://d70h9a36p82zs.cloudfront.net/Ccpres2016/base/assets/1-0-1/production/Chris-Christie-TheEconomy.pdf   The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: ​ http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an already very weak  and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture.  As events unfold in the next few months,  we may discover that it is too late to act,  that our reign on this planet has, indeed,  come to an abrupt end?  

Unfolding story based on Bogdanov's original A Short Course of Economic Science text and Pilyugina's 2019 article Revisited July 2026 after reading Sven Beckert's 2025 Book Capitalism a Global HIstory (see short video and longer video) Causal loop summary based on my Gemini interaction using Gene Bellinger's AI prompts

This insight includes a Limits to Success archetype. (Bubbles colored with a darker blue)

This model simulates a COVID outbreak occurring at Burnie, Tasmania. It links the extent to the pandemic with governments intervention policies aiming to limit the spread of the virus. The other part of the model illustrates how will the COVID statistics and the government enforcement jointly influence the economic environment in the community. A number of variables are taken into account, indicating positive or negative relationship in the infection and the economy model respectively.

 

Assumptions

·         Government takes responsive actions when the number of acquired cases exceeds 10.

·         Government’s prompt actions, involving closure of the state border, lockdown within the city, plans on mandatory vaccination and testing, effectively control the infection status.

·         Economic activities are reduced due to stagnation in statewide tourism, closure of brick-and-mortar businesses, and increased unemployment rate, as results of government restrictions.

 

Insights

Government’s rapid intervention can effectively reduce the infected cases. The national vaccination rollout campaign raises vaccination rate in Australians, and particularly influence the death rate in the infection model. Please drag the slider of vaccination to a higher rate and run the model to compare the outcomes.

Although local economy is negatively affected by government restriction policies, consumer demand in online shopping and government support payments neutralize the negative impact on economy and maintain the level of economic activities when infections get controlled. 

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Very basic stock-flow diagram of compound interest with table and graph output in interest and savings development per year. Initial deposit, interest rate, yearly deposit and withdrawal can all be modified.