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BMA708_Assignment 3_Xiaoya Zuo

Xiaoya Zuo

3

DRRG Model

Laura Anne Geronimo

Verano, Mary Ann -Economic Data

Verano, Mary Ann U.

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Marco Rubio's economic policy based on the information at: https://marcorubio.com/issues/debt/ The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

DRAFT IPA of Marco Rubio economic policy

Steve Wallis

Description

Model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

This model was designed from the SIR model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19 outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.

Assumptions

The government policy is triggered when the number of infected is more than ten.

The government policies will take a negative effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.

Parameters

We set some fixed and adjusted variables.

Covid-19 outbreak's parameter

Fixed parameters: Infection rate, Background disease, recovery rate.

Adjusted parameter: Immunity loss rate can be changed from vaccination rate.

Government policy's parameters

Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)

Economic's parameters

Fixed parameter: Tourism

Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)

Interesting insight

An increased vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system still needs a long time to recover in both cases.

Untitled Insight

NGUYEN DANG KHOA VO

Assignment 3 – Complex Systems

Ryan Salvaggio - 43668070

The Model

This model conceptualizes the effects on a real-estate market-model utilizing agent based modelling. This model utilizes basic economic principles of supply and demand.

The model bases itself on two Agents - one being ‘Customers’ of the real estate market model, whilst the other being the Real estate itself, coined 'Houses'.

Consumers (Demand)

The Agent population, ‘Consumers’ specifies the total amount of people whom can potentially become buyers within the market. This is limited to 30 for conceptual purposes. The Agent ‘Consumer’ exists in two states, either being an ‘Active Customer’ (Active) or an ‘Inactive Customer’ (Inactive). The transition from Inactive to Active occurs upon the basis that the ‘Budget’ of the Consumer meets the desired price of the marketplace, this is specified through the variable ‘Budget’ defining the probability that this transition will occur – this is adjustable by the user indicating a highly resistive or by accepting the market. ‘Budget’s probability in a real life scenario would be based upon numerous factors however conceptually utilizing the slider can present many of these various situations.

Upon transitioning into an active state an ‘Active consumer’ will attempt to find the closest ‘For sale household’, this is represented and carried out through the ‘Enter’ action. Upon finding a household the consumer and house will both return to their respected inactive state thus repeating the process.

Demand – ‘Count of active customers – demand’ is then calculated by a count of Consumers transitioned and currently in the Active state. A high demand would be indicative through a high ‘Budget’ responsiveness whilst a low demand would be indicative of a low ‘Budget’ responsiveness. The increase in Price and hence supply of household thus reduces demand and vise versa.

House (Supply)

The Agent population, ‘Houses’ specifies the total amount of households that can potentially become for sale within the market. This is limited to 112 for conceptual purposes. The Agent ‘House’ exists in two states, either being ‘For Sale’ (Active) or ‘Not for Sale’ (Inactive). The transition from Inactive to Active occurs upon the basis that the ‘Motivation to Sell’ of the House is satisfied, this satisfaction is specified by a set probability that this transition will occur – this is adjustable by the user indicating a highly responsive or restricted house market. ‘Motivation to sell’ probability in a real life scenario would be based upon numerous factors however conceptually utilizing the slider can present many of these various situations.

Upon transitioning into an active state a ‘For Sale’ house will wait for an ‘Active Customer’ ‘this is represented and carried out through the ‘Search’ action. Upon completion of the action both states become inactive and the process continues.

Supply – ‘Count of houses for sale –supply’ is then calculated by a count of Houses ‘For Sale’ that are currently in the active state. Ultimately a high Motivation to sell would sharply increase supply, whilst a low motivation would have the adverse effects.

Movement Speed

Movement speed – describes the base movement rate of Consumers. This variable describes the transition into the ‘Inactive’ state of a consumer, ultimately when a household is found and purchased. Movement speed affects both demand and supply in the sense that the transitioning of stages is quickened and more responsive. (Indicated by a more rigid demand and supply curve).

Market Price

In economics Price is a linear function (straight line) of the proportion of houses for sale (positive slope), and also a linear function of the proportion of buyers (negative slope).Therefore , the variable ‘Market Price’ is calculated by 10 * the portion of ‘House’ in the active state (which is the supply) over the portion of ‘Consumers’ in the active state (which is the demand) Ultimately this presents the economic principles that as Supply is directly related to Price and demand is inversely related to Price.

Note

Each simulation (with the same settings) will present a different and unique simulation. I have set a Random Boolean to the active component that randomizes the amount of Customers or houses that begin in their active state. The probability is only 0.008 but is useful in describing the effects on the market from various position’s and seeing unique models.

References

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynuoZQbqeUg - Your First ABM/Part II

https://insightmaker.com/insight/35714/Foraging-Model

Assignment 3 - Ryan Salvaggio 43668070

Ryan Salvaggio

4

Group Assignment

ONYEMOWO GRACE UGBAHA

4

Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that an already very weak and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture. As events unfold in the next few months, we may discover that it is too late to act, that our reign on this planet has, indeed, come to an abrupt end?

Covid 19 - irreversible and catastrophic consequences

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

5

A government deficit means that more money has been transferred in the form of payments or investments from the government sector to the private sector than the government has received in taxes. As shown in the drawing, GOVERNMENT DEFICIT = INCOME AND SAVING for the private sector. Not all the income transferred from the government to the private sector will be employed and some of it will be saved in bank accounts. It is therefore correct to say that Government Deficits lead to Private Sector Saving. It is equally true to say that Investment leads to Saving. This is important because in the current recession one of the major problems is the massive amount of private debt. In these circumstances a cumulative government deficit is necessary to help the private sector save and repay some of its debt. Note: I have not taken into account the foreign sector here which can also contribute to private sector income and saving.

Deficit and Income

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

How education causes the gap between socio-economic status?

Educación_universidad

fredy alzate

Gilded Trap Stock and Flow Model - Lobster Fisheries

DeclanT

8 months ago

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Lindsey Graham's economic policy based on the information at: http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/restore-fiscal-discipline/ http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/ease-tax-and-regulatory-burdens/ http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/achieve-energy-independence/ http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/reform-entitlements/ The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

DRAFT IPA of Lindsey Graham Economic Policy

Steve Wallis

Unfolding story based on Emery Roe's 2013 book Making the Most of Mess, revised in 2026. See also Dynamics in Action IM-3239 for more on behavior and The Art of the State IM-11962 for more on Grid-Group Cultural Theory

Managing Mess

Geoff McDonnell

4 last month

Economic Systems

Alan Plunkett

From Schluter et al 2017 article A framework for mapping and comparing behavioural theories in models of social-ecological systems COMSeS2017 video. See also Balke and Gilbert 2014 JASSS article How do agents make decisions? (recommended by Kurt Kreuger U of S)

Modelling human behaviour (MoHuB)

Geoff McDonnell

11

This high-level simulation model presented by Jay Forrester in his book World Dynamics, simulates socio-economic-environmental world system. The world Model was created in a time where pollution and other negative effects of industrialization and economic growth started to become recognized in 1970. For this exam purpose, we have rebuilt the model to do some experiments and analyze the results.

World Model1

Ali Akhlaqi

5

From Oatley 2014 p214++

Balance-of-Payments Adjustment

Even though the current and capital accounts must balance each other, there is no assurancethat the millions of international transactions that individu- als, businesses, and governments conduct every year will necessarily produce this balance. When they don’t, the country faces an imbalance of payments. A country might have a current-accountdeficit that it cannotfully finance throughcapital imports, for example, or it might have a current-accountsur- plus thatis not fully offset by capital outflows. When an imbalancearises, the country must bring its payments back into balance. The process by which a country doessois called balance-of-payments adjustment. Fixed and floating exchange-rate systems adjust imbalances indifferent ways.

In a fixed exchange-rate system, balance-of-payments adjustment occurs through changes in domestic prices. We can most readily understand this ad- justmentprocess through a simple example. Suppose there are only two coun- tries in the world—the United States and Japan—and supposefurther that they maintain a fixed exchange rate according to which $1 equals 100 yen. The United States has purchased 800 billion yen worth of goods, services, and financial assets from Japan, and Japanhas purchased $4 billion of items from the United States. Thus, the United States has a deficit, and Japan a surplus, of $4billion.

This payments imbalance creates an imbalance between the supply of and the demandfor the dollar and yen in the foreign exchange market. American residents need 800 billion yen to pay for their imports from Japan. They can acquirethis 800 billion yen by selling $8 billion. Japanese residents need only $4 billion to pay for their imports from the United States. They can acquire the $4 billion by selling 400billion yen. Thus, Americanresidentsareselling $4 billion more than Japanese residents want to buy, and the dollar depreci- ates againstthe yen.

Because the exchangerateis fixed, the United States and Japan must prevent this depreciation. Thus, both governmentsintervenein the foreign exchange market, buying dollars in exchange for yen. Intervention has two consequences.First, it eliminates the imbalance in the foreign exchange mar- ket as the governments provide the 400billion yen that American residents need in exchange forthe $4 billion that Japanese residents do not want. With the supply of each currency equalto the demandin the foreign exchange mar- ket, the fixed exchangerate is sustained. Second, intervention changes each country’s money supply. The American moneysupply falls by $4 billion, and Japan’s moneysupplyincreases by 400billion yen.

The change in the money supplies alters prices in both countries. The reduc- tion of the U.S. money supply causes Americanpricesto fall. The expansion of the money supply in Japan causes Japanese prices to rise. As American prices fall and Japanese prices rise, American goods becomerelatively less expensive than Japanese goods. Consequently, American and Japaneseresidents shift their purchases away from Japanese products and toward American goods. American imports (and hence Japanese exports) fall, and American exports (and hence Japanese imports) rise. As American imports (and Japanese exports) fall and American exports (and Japanese imports) rise, the payments imbalanceis elimi- nated. Adjustment underfixed exchange rates thus occurs through changesin the relative price of American and Japanese goods brought about by the changes in moneysupplies caused by intervention in the foreign exchange market.

In floating exchange-rate systems, balance-of-payments adjustment oc- curs through exchange-rate movements. Let’s go back to our U.S.—Japan sce- nario, keeping everything the same, exceptthis time allowing the currencies to float rather than requiring the governments to maintain a fixed exchangerate. Again,the $4 billion payments imbalance generates an imbalancein the for- eign exchange market: Americansare selling more dollars than Japanese resi- dents want to buy. Consequently, the dollar begins to depreciate against the yen. Because the currencies are floating, however, neither governmentinter- venesin the foreign exchange market. Instead, the dollar depreciates until the marketclears. In essence, as Americans seek the yen they need, they are forced to accept fewer yen for each dollar. Eventually, however, they will acquire all of the yen they need, but will have paid more than $4 billion for them.

The dollar’s depreciation lowers the price in yen of American goods and services in the Japanese market andraises the price in dollars of Japanese goodsandservices in the American market. A 10 percent devaluation of the dollar against the yen, for example, reduces the price that Japanese residents pay for American goods by 10 percentandraises the price that Americans pay for Japanese goods by 10 percent. By making American products cheaper and Japanese goods more expensive, depreciation causes American imports from Japan to fall and American exports to Japan to rise. As American exports expand and importsfall, the payments imbalanceis corrected.

In both systems, therefore, a balance-of-payments adjustment occurs as prices fall in the country with the deficit and rise in the country with the surplus. Consumers in both countries respond to these price changes by purchasing fewer of the now-more-expensive goods in the country with the surplus and more of the now-cheaper goodsin the country with the deficit. These shifts in consumption alter imports and exports in both countries, mov- ing each of their payments back into balance. The mechanism that causes these price changes is different in each system, however. In fixed exchange- rate systems, the exchange rate remains stable and price changes are achieved by changing the moneysupplyin orderto alter prices inside the country. In floating exchange-rate systems, internal prices remain stable, while the change in relative prices is brought about through exchange-rate movements.

Contrasting the balance of payments adjustment process under fixed and floating exchangerates highlights the trade off that governments face between

exchangerate stability and domestic price stability: Governments can have a stable fixed exchangerate or they can stabilize domestic prices, but they cannotachieve both goals simultaneously. If a government wants to maintain a fixed exchangerate, it must accept the occasional deflation and inflation caused by balance-of-payments adjustment. If a governmentis unwilling to accept such price movements,it cannot maintain a fixed exchangerate. This trade-off has been the central factor driving the international monetary system toward floating exchange rates during the last 100 years. We turn now to examine howthis trade-off first led governmentsto create innovativeinter- national monetary arrangements following World WarII and then caused the system to collapse into a floating exchange-rate system in the early 1970s.

Oatley's balance of payments

Jan Baykara

Clone of IM-24317 for adding other funding insights Im-633 and 636 and contrasting economic drivers of mental health with other health care based on JHPPL David Mechanic 2016 issue articles, esp Glied article (paywalled) Backed up generic version at IM-59166

Political Economy of Mental Health Services

Geoff McDonnell

Biodiversity-Habitat Loss

Bryan Sencaki

Deforestation and Economic Development in an Underdeveloped County

Chanaphorn Silaphorn

Ijssel Delta Final

B G

The simulation integrates or sums (INTEG) the Nj population, with a change of Delta N in each generation, starting with an initial value of 5.

The equation for DeltaN is a version of

Nj+1 = Nj + mu (1- Nj / Nmax ) Nj

the maximum population is set to be one million, and the growth rate constant mu = 3.

Nj: is the “number of items” in our current generation.

Delta Nj: is the “change in number of items” as we go from the present generation into the next generation. This is just the number of items born minus the number of items who have died.

mu: is the growth or birth rate parameter, similar to that in the exponential growth and decay model. However, as we extend our model it will no longer be the actual growth rate, but rather just a constant that tends to control the actual growth rate without being directly proportional to it.

F(Nj) = mu(1‐Nj/Nmax): is our model for the effective “growth rate”, a rate that decreases as the number of items approaches the maximum allowed by external factors such as food supply, disease or predation. (You can think of mu as the growth or birth rate in the absence of population pressure from other items.) We write this rate as F(Nj), which is a mathematical way of saying F is affected by the number of items, i.e., “F is a function of Nj”. It combines both growth and all the various environmental constraints on growth into a single function. This is a good approach to modeling; start with something that works (exponential growth) and then modify it incrementally, while still incorporating the working model.

Nj+1 = Nj + Delta Nj : This is a mathematical way to say, “The new number of items equals the old number of items plus the change in number of items”.

Nj/Nmax: is what fraction a population has reached of the maximum "carrying capacity" allowed by the external environment. We use this fraction to change the overall growth rate of the population. In the real world, as well as in our model, it is possible for a population to be greater than the maximum population (which is usually an average of many years), at least for a short period of time. This means that we can expect fluctuations in which Nj/Nmax is greater than 1.

This equation is a form of what is known as the logistic map or equation. It is a map because it "maps'' the population in one year into the population of the next year. It is "logistic'' in the military sense of supplying a population with its needs. It a nonlinear equation because it contains a term proportional to Nj^2 and not just Nj. The logistic map equation is also an example of discrete mathematics. It is discrete because the time variable j assumes just integer values, and consequently the variables Nj+1 and Nj do not change continuously into each other, as would a function N(t). In addition to the variables Nj and j, the equation also contains the two parameters mu, the growth rate, and Nmax, the maximum population. You can think of these as "constants'' whose values are determined from external sources and remain fixed as one year of items gets mapped into the next year. However, as part of viewing the computer as a laboratory in which to experiment, and as part of the scientific process, you should vary the parameters in order to explore how the model reacts to changes in them.

POPULATION LOGISTIC MAP (WITH FEEDBACK)

Guy Lakeman

7

A framework exploring flood risk management in a developing city, under the old paradigm of control - characterised by narrowly defined goals and an over-reliance on hard-engineered structural solutions.

Urban flood risk (control paradigm)

Michael Meadows

13

This insight includes a Limits to Success archetype. (Bubbles colored with a darker blue)

Economical Factor

Bruce Ree