This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Rand Paul's
economic policy based on the information at: https://www.randpaul.com/issue/spending-and-debt and also https://www.randpaul.com/issue/taxes The method used is Integrative
Propositional Analysis (IPA)
available:
http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf
This model simulates a COVID outbreak occurring at Burnie, Tasmania.
It links the extent to the pandemic with governments intervention policies
aiming to limit the spread of the virus. The other part of the model illustrates
how will the COVID statistics and the government enforcement jointly influence
the economic environment in the community. A number of variables are taken into
account, indicating positive or negative relationship in the infection and the
economy model respectively.
Assumptions
·
Government takes responsive actions when the
number of acquired cases exceeds 10.
·
Government’s prompt actions, involving closure
of the state border, lockdown within the city, plans on mandatory vaccination
and testing, effectively control the infection status.
·
Economic activities are reduced due to stagnation
in statewide tourism, closure of brick-and-mortar businesses, and increased unemployment
rate, as results of government restrictions.
Insights
Government’s rapid intervention can effectively reduce the
infected cases. The national vaccination rollout campaign raises vaccination
rate in Australians, and particularly influence the death rate in the infection
model. Please drag the slider of vaccination to a higher rate and run the model
to compare the outcomes.
Although local economy is negatively affected by government restriction
policies, consumer demand in online shopping and government support payments
neutralize the negative impact on economy and maintain the level of economic
activities when infections get controlled.
Simulation model of COVID outbreak in Burnie Tasmania_Yuchen Zhang_574644
This model is comparing healthy and sick residents in Burnie, Tasmania after the Covid-19 Outbreak in 2020. It will also show how the Burnie economy is effected by the disease, how the Government Health Policies are implemented and how they are enforced.
This model is based on the SIR, Susceptible, Infection, Recovery (or
Removed) These are the three possible states related to the members of
the Burnie population when a contagious decease spreads.
The Government/Government Health Policy, played a big part in the successful decrease in Covid-19 infections. The Government enforced the following. - No travel (interstate or international) - Isolation within the residents homes - Social distancing by 1.5m - Quarantine - Non essential companies to be temporarily closed - Limitations on public gatherings - And limits on time and kilometers aloud to travel from ones home within a local community
This resulted in lower reported infection rates of Covid-19 and higher recovery rates. In my opinion: When the first case was reported the Government could have been even faster to enforce these rules to decrease the fatality rates further for the Burnie, population.
Assumption: Government policies were only triggered when 10 cases were recorded. Also, more cases that had been recorded effected the economic growth during this time.
Interesting Findings: In the simulation it shows as the death rates increases towards the end of the week, the rate of testing goes down. You would think that the government would have enforced a higher testing rate over the duration of this time to decrease the number of infections, exposed which would increase the recovery rates faster and more efficiently.
Figures have been determined by the population of Burnie being 19,380 at the time of assignment.
Complex Systems How Burnie Tasmania dealt with Covid-19 Outbreak BMA708
WIP based on Emery Roe's 2013 book. See also Dynamics in Action IM-3239 for more on behavior and The Art of the State IM-11962 for more on Grid-Group Cultural Theory
