This simple radiation balance model shows the  greenhouse effect  that an atmosphere can have in warming a planet.  By trapping some of the radiation emitted by the planet the atmosphere can cause the surface to become warmer than it otherwise would be.
This simple radiation balance model shows the greenhouse effect that an atmosphere can have in warming a planet.  By trapping some of the radiation emitted by the planet the atmosphere can cause the surface to become warmer than it otherwise would be.
Clone of:  'Sucesion Forestal' (by Denny S. Fernandez del Viso) for subtropical forest, which in turn is a modification of 'Modeling forest succession in a northeast deciduous forest' (by Owen Stuart).   Translated to English (by Lisa Belyea)
Clone of: 
'Sucesion Forestal' (by Denny S. Fernandez del Viso) for subtropical forest, which in turn is a modification of 'Modeling forest succession in a northeast deciduous forest' (by Owen Stuart).
Translated to English (by Lisa Belyea)
   THE 2020 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.  WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER R

THE 2020 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

 An implementation of Dennis Meadows' PhD thesis on Dynamics of Commodity Cycles:  http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/14131      This started as an implementation of the stock and flow structure for Figure 11-20 (p448) in John Sterman's  Business Dynamics.  I tried to complete it myself by filling
An implementation of Dennis Meadows' PhD thesis on Dynamics of Commodity Cycles: http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/14131

This started as an implementation of the stock and flow structure for Figure 11-20 (p448) in John Sterman's Business Dynamics. I tried to complete it myself by filling in the blanks, but I couldn't completely recreate the expected behaviour, so I tracked down the original model and re-implemented it from DYNAMO into InsightMaker.
   THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER REL

THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

THE MODEL IS ZONE SPECIFIC AS GLOBAL WEATHER IS NOT HOMOGENEOUS BUT A COLLECTION OF HEAT BUMBPS DEPENDENT ON POPULATION SIZE OF URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AND MASSED CONURBATIONS AND AGGLOMERATIONS 

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

 The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. 
   
 Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing th

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

 

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

 The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. 
 Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

This simple radiation balance model shows the  greenhouse effect  that an atmosphere can have in warming a planet.  By trapping some of the radiation emitted by the planet the atmosphere can cause the surface to become warmer than it otherwise would be.
This simple radiation balance model shows the greenhouse effect that an atmosphere can have in warming a planet.  By trapping some of the radiation emitted by the planet the atmosphere can cause the surface to become warmer than it otherwise would be.
This is a model which attempts to replicate a simple reinforcing loop described by Dennis Sherwood on page 75-87 of his book 'Seeing the forest for the trees - a manager's guide to applying systems thinking.  This is not a realistic model but I just wanted to reproduce it as practice of implementing
This is a model which attempts to replicate a simple reinforcing loop described by Dennis Sherwood on page 75-87 of his book 'Seeing the forest for the trees - a manager's guide to applying systems thinking.

This is not a realistic model but I just wanted to reproduce it as practice of implementing causal loop models.

www.stantonattree.com
 The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. 
 Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a more environmentally focused policy.

7 months ago
This simple radiation balance model shows the  greenhouse effect  that an atmosphere can have in warming a planet.  By trapping some of the radiation emitted by the planet the atmosphere can cause the surface to become warmer than it otherwise would be.
This simple radiation balance model shows the greenhouse effect that an atmosphere can have in warming a planet.  By trapping some of the radiation emitted by the planet the atmosphere can cause the surface to become warmer than it otherwise would be.
 The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.  Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amoun

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a more environmentally focused policy.

"The World3 model is a system dynamics model for computer simulation of interactions between population, industrial growth, food production and limits in the ecosystems of the earth.

It was originally produced and used by a Club of Rome study that produced the model and the book The Limits to Growth (1972).

 The creators of the model were Dennis Meadows, project manager, and a team of 16 researchers

The main systems are: the food system, dealing with agriculture and food production, the industrial system, the population system,  the non-renewable resources system,  the pollution system. 

Scenario is below

Scenario2: Initial Natural Resource 1T -> 2T

Scenario3: Scenario2 + Persistent Pollution Tech Change Multiplier (-1,0)->(-1, -0.04)

Scenario4: Scenario3 + Yield Tech Change Multiplier (-1,0) -> (-1,0.04)

Scenario5: Scenario4 + Land life time 2100 -> 2002

Scenario6: Scenario5 + Resource Technology Change Multiplier (-1, 0) -> (-1, -0.04)

Scenario7: Scenario2 + Year of continued fertility change 2100 -> 2002, Time to zero population growth 2100 -> 2002

Scenario8: Scenario7 + Desired annual industrial per capita output 400 -> 350, Year of Industrial Equilibrium 2100 -> 2002

Scenario9: Scenario8 + scenario6

Scenario10: Scenario9 + Policy adoption year 2002 -> 1982 

Editor Original Snenario: Scenario4 + Land life time 2100 -> 2030 + Resource Technology Change Multiplier (-1, 0) -> (-1, -0.04) + Year of continued fertility change 2100 -> 2030, Time to zero population growth 2100 -> 2030 + Desired annual industrial per capita output 400 -> 350, Year of Industrial Equilibrium 2100 -> 2030 + Policy adoption year 2002 -> 2030.

This description is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World3 

Model adapted from the implementation presented in Cellier, F.E. (2008), https://people.inf.ethz.ch/fcellier/Pubs/World/modelica_08_world3.pdf"

World3 in Modelica: Creating System Dynamics Models in the Modelica Framework, Proc. 6th International Modelica Conference, Bielefeld, Germany, Vol.2, pp. 393-400. 

5 months ago
   THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.  WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER R

THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Matt's revised version of the Aquaworld solar radiation insight.
Matt's revised version of the Aquaworld solar radiation insight.
 The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. 
 Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

This simple radiation balance model shows the  greenhouse effect  that an atmosphere can have in warming a planet.  By trapping some of the radiation emitted by the planet the atmosphere can cause the surface to become warmer than it otherwise would be.
This simple radiation balance model shows the greenhouse effect that an atmosphere can have in warming a planet.  By trapping some of the radiation emitted by the planet the atmosphere can cause the surface to become warmer than it otherwise would be.
This simple radiation balance model shows the  greenhouse effect  that an atmosphere can have in warming a planet.  By trapping some of the radiation emitted by the planet the atmosphere can cause the surface to become warmer than it otherwise would be.
This simple radiation balance model shows the greenhouse effect that an atmosphere can have in warming a planet.  By trapping some of the radiation emitted by the planet the atmosphere can cause the surface to become warmer than it otherwise would be.
This simple radiation balance model shows the  greenhouse effect  that an atmosphere can have in warming a planet.  By trapping some of the radiation emitted by the planet the atmosphere can cause the surface to become warmer than it otherwise would be.
This simple radiation balance model shows the greenhouse effect that an atmosphere can have in warming a planet.  By trapping some of the radiation emitted by the planet the atmosphere can cause the surface to become warmer than it otherwise would be.
 The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.  
 Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amo

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.


Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

This simple radiation balance model shows the  greenhouse effect  that an atmosphere can have in warming a planet.  By trapping some of the radiation emitted by the planet the atmosphere can cause the surface to become warmer than it otherwise would be.
This simple radiation balance model shows the greenhouse effect that an atmosphere can have in warming a planet.  By trapping some of the radiation emitted by the planet the atmosphere can cause the surface to become warmer than it otherwise would be.