From Walrave ISDC2014 paper Counteracting the success trap in publically owned corporations. Similar to the ordinary (efficiency focussed) and dynamic capabilities (explore) insight described by David Teece
IM-168155 Summary of Ch 27 of Mitchell Wray and Watts Textbook see IM-164967 for book overview with simplified Mike Radzicki's 2003 Evolutionary Economics history article added
To maintain economic wealth (roads, hospitals, power
lines, etc.) power needs to be consumed. The same applies to economic activity,
since any activity requires the consumption of energy. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the burning
of fossil fuels was responsible for 79 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions
in 2010. So whilst economic
activity takes place fossil fuels will be burned and CO2 emissions are
unavoidable - unless we use exclusively renewable energy resources, which is
not likely to occur very soon. However, the increasing CO2 concentrations in
the atmosphere will have negative consequences, such droughts, floods, crop
failures, etc. These effects represent limits to economic growth. The CLD
illustrates some of the more prominent negative feedback loops that act as a
break on economic growth and wealth. As the negative feedback loops (B1-B4) get stronger, an interesting question is, 'will a sharp reduction
in economic wealth and unavoidable recession lead to wide-spread food riots and disturbances?'
LIMITS TO ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROMINENT NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOPS
The model shows the industry connection and conflict between Forestry and Mountain Tourism in Derby, Tasmania. The objective of this simulation is to find out the balance point for co-exist.
How Does the Model Work?
Both industries can provide economic contribution to Tasmania. Firstly, selling timbers through logging would generate income. Also, spendings from mountain bike riders would generate incomes. However, low tree regrowth rate can not cover up logging, which influences the beautiful vistas and riders' experiences. While satisfaction and expectation depend on vistas and experience, the demand of mountain biking would be influenced through repeat visits and world of mouth as well.
Interesting Insights
Although forestry can provide a great amount of economic contribution to Tasmania, over logging goes against ESG framework as well as creating conflict with mountain tourism. As long as the number of rider visits is stable, tourism can always provide a greater economic contribution compared to forestry. Therefore, the government should consider the balance point between two industries.
Simulation of Derby Mountain Bikes versus Forestry
WIP of several books of Karl Polanyi's thoughts and papers around social science economic history and capitalism. . See also Summary of the Great Transformation IM-10640
Like previous models, this model shows the operation of a simple economy, the influence of changes in the consumption rate, and the effect of government intervention. In addition, this model shows changes in the hypothetical general price level. It gives an idea of changes in price trends based on changes in the quantity of money. NOTE: No general price level exists. Prices provide information for the exchange of individual economic goods.
A Tragedy of the Commons situation exists whenever two or more activities, each, which in order to produce results, rely on a shared limited resource. Results for these activities continue to develop as long as their use of the limited resource doesn't exceed the resource limit. Once this limit is reached the results produced by each activity are limited to the level at which the resource is replenished. As an example, consider multiple departments with an organization using IT resources, until they've exhausted IT capacity.
Environmental economics Niger Delta oil polluted case study
The term 'work' has been used in this model in the sense of economic activity to include not only
work done by people but also by machines. The model shows 8 positive
feedback loops that reinforce work and the need to work. From the perspective of physics, civilisation can be described as a MECHANISM FOR USING ENERGY AND DOING WORK.
Work, however, has some unavoidable consequences. The second law of thermodynamics
tells us that any ‘work’ requires the use of energy and that DOING WORK entails
the generation of WASTE HEAT. The laws of physics also tell us that CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels will cause global warming. These unintended
and unavoidable consequences are highlighted in the model by prominent arrows.
Can
the structure of this system be changed to avoid a foreseeable collapse of civilisation?
Do economic activity and work unavoidably lead to doom?
Added several versions of the model. Added a flow to make C increase. Added a factor to be able to change the value 0.5. Older version cloned at IM-46280
Circularity in Economic models including Exports and Imports
Microeconomic measures can produce counterintuitive
'emergent' effects at the macro or systemic level. The commendable act of
saving money by individuals during uncertain economic times has the perverse macroeconomic
effect of making a recession worse: in aggregate there will be less money available
for spending, suppressing demand for goods and services. Economists call this effect 'the paradox of thrift'. Similarly, logical efforts
by companies in such conditions to reduce their wage bill or their postponement
of investment decisions will reduce spending in the economy and deepen the economic downturn.
What can be done to counteract this harmful dynamic?
The missing spending can be replaced by government spending: governments have it
within their power to effectively counter economic downturns!
Microeconomic Savings can convert to Macroeconomic Costs
