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Circular equations WIP for Runy.

Added several versions of the model. Added a flow to make C increase. Added a factor to be able to change the value 0.5. Older version cloned at IM-46280

Circularity in Economic models 2

Geoff McDonnell

4

School dropout

Inès Lemaire

To maintain economic wealth (roads, hospitals, power lines, etc.) power needs to be consumed. The same applies to economic activity, since any activity requires the consumption of energy. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the burning of fossil fuels was responsible for 79 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2010. So whilst economic activity takes place fossil fuels will be burned and CO2 emissions are unavoidable - unless we use exclusively renewable energy resources, which is not likely to occur very soon. However, the increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will have negative consequences, such droughts, floods, crop failures, etc. These effects represent limits to economic growth. The CLD illustrates some of the more prominent negative feedback loops that act as a break on economic growth and wealth. As the negative feedback loops (B1-B4) get stronger, an interesting question is, 'will a sharp reduction in economic wealth and unavoidable recession lead to wide-spread food riots and disturbances?'

LIMITS TO ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROMINENT NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOPS

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

4

Like previous models, this model shows the operation of a simple economy, the influence of changes in the consumption rate, and the effect of government intervention. In addition, this model shows changes in the hypothetical general price level. It gives an idea of changes in price trends based on changes in the quantity of money. NOTE: No general price level exists. Prices provide information for the exchange of individual economic goods.

Simple Economy: Model 9

Jim Berger

3

Economics

Pachka Hammami

Barangay IRAWAN Systems Model

Biophysical, Socio-cultural & Economic Data of Bgy. IRAWAN

Sitti Mashita J. Kilis

ECONOMIC GROWTH feeds on itself, provided the growth engine is fed with materials and finance. In this highly simplified representation some of the factors that influence economic growth are show in the incircled green fields. Governments can influence economic growth positively via investments and payouts. The most obvious tool which governments can use to slow an overheated economy is taxation.

Economic Growth Engine

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

WIP Overview model structures of Khalid Saeed's 2014 WPI paper Jay Forrester’s Disruptive Models of Economic Behavior See also General SD and Macroeconomics CLDs IM-168865

Jay Forrester's Disruptive Economic Models

Geoff McDonnell

9 months ago

Circular equations WIP for Runy.

Added several versions of the model. Added a flow to make C increase. Added a factor to be able to change the value 0.5. Older version cloned at IM-46280

Circularity in Economic models including Exports and Imports

Runy Calmera

Economic growth cannot go on forever, although politicians and most economist seem to think so. The activity involved in economic growth necessarily generates entropy (disorder and environmental degradation). Entorpy in turn generates powerful negative feedback loops which will, as a response from nature, ensure that economic activity will eventually grind to a complete halt. In these circumstances organised society cannot persist and will collapse. The negative feedback loops shown in this graph have already started to operate. The longer economic growth continues unabated, the more powerful these negative feedback loops will become. How long can economic growth continue before it is overwhelmed? It may not be very far in the future.

Entropy and Negative Feedback may stop Growth soon

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

3

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Ben Carson's economic policy based on the information at:

https://www.bencarson.com/issues/tax-reform/

https://www.bencarson.com/issues/balanced-budget-amendment/ The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

DRAFT IPA of Ben Carson economic policy

Steve Wallis

Simulation of Goodwin01 Minsky Model CLD in IM-172002 Compare with Part3 slide 3 of presentation in patreon. See extension Goodwin02 at IM-172145

Goodwin Minsky Simulation Keen Economic Dynamics Aug2019

Geoff McDonnell

5

This is part of series of model implemented from "Thinking in Systems" book by Donella Meadows

Thinking in Systems - Economic Capital - Fig 37, 44

Sudharsan

Model based on chapter 10 (opportunity cost) of the book Modeling Dynamic Economic Systems

Opportunity cost I

AR

308

Based on System Zoo EZ412D, EZ411, EZ412A.

Sustainable Ecotourism

Libby Boissy

The housing market is heavily dependent on two main factors; supply and demand. Both play a major role in determining an equilibrium price for both sellers and buyers in the real estate market.

Residents, or the general population of individuals, place significant reliance on financial institutions to provide sources of capital i.e mortgages, to fund their purchases of homes. The rate of interest charged by these organisations in turn gives buyers (consumers) purchasing power, creating demand.

Supply is made up of the number of houses in the market, and consequently, of these, the number of houses which are up for sale. As the prices of houses for sale increases, the demand for purchase of these properties decreases. Conversely, the lower price, the higher the demand. Once the market reaches an equilibrium point, to which buyers and sellers form an agreement, houses are sold accordingly. An underlying factor to consider is the cost of construction, which impacts producers, or suppliers in this instance, and thus the number of homes for sale, and the expected profit sellers hope to achieve.

The simulated graph highlights the common scenario within the housing market, to which we see that as price increases, the total number for houses for sale decreases, generating an opposite slope to the price. As the price for houses increases, the demand for the houses decreases and vice versa. The equilibrium is evident at time 14 whereby the price of houses and the number of houses for sale overlaps which in turn creates a market to which both buyers and sellers are happy.

The effect of Supply and Demand on the Housing Market Assignment 3 (43323871)

Ryan Nakhle

34

An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.

Coffee Pods ISD Humanities v 1.02

Kevin Collins

367

Clone of Pesticide Use in Central America for Lab work

This model is an attempt to simulate what is commonly referred to as the “pesticide treadmill” in agriculture and how it played out in the cotton industry in Central America after the Second World War until around the 1990s.

The cotton industry expanded dramatically in Central America after WW2, increasing from 20,000 hectares to 463,000 in the late 1970s. This expansion was accompanied by a huge increase in industrial pesticide application which would eventually become the downfall of the industry.

The primary pest for cotton production, bol weevil, became increasingly resistant to chemical pesticides as they were applied each year. The application of pesticides also caused new pests to appear, such as leafworms, cotton aphids and whitefly, which in turn further fuelled increased application of pesticides.

The treadmill resulted in massive increases in pesticide applications: in the early years they were only applied a few times per season, but this application rose to up to 40 applications per season by the 1970s; accounting for over 50% of the costs of production in some regions.

The skyrocketing costs associated with increasing pesticide use were one of the key factors that led to the dramatic decline of the cotton industry in Central America: decreasing from its peak in the 1970s to less than 100,000 hectares in the 1990s. “In its wake, economic ruin and environmental devastation were left” as once thriving towns became ghost towns, and once fertile soils were wasted, eroded and abandoned (Lappe, 1998).

Sources: Douglas L. Murray (1994), Cultivating Crisis: The Human Cost of Pesticides in Latin America, pp35-41; Francis Moore Lappe et al (1998), World Hunger: 12 Myths, 2nd Edition, pp54-55.

REM 221 - Causal Loop diagramming

Steve Conrad

368

Economics

Mohammed Hossain

Economic capital growth model, Figure 27 from Thinking in Systems by Donella H. Meadows

Economic Capital Growth

Paradox Consulting

6

In CIV4 a City's Health stock is a flourishing yet complex condition which acts as a City attribute intended to limit growth. Positive and negative feedback impacts City Health flow and derives from many sources: city's site, buildings, wonders, civics, resources, population, etc.

What drives this flow? When a cities unhealthiness is greater than its health limit, then for each point of population above the health limit consumes 3 food apiece rather than the standard 2 pieces. This further depletes city resources leading to starvation. In addition the city’s health also affects the rate at which it accumulates food.

For example: too much growth causes overpopulation which leads to an unhealthy city. This unhealthy city leads to less food accumulation thereby resulting in starvation which further compounds the cities unhealthiness.

Civilization IV: City Health Modeling

Jason Blackstone

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Marco Rubio's economic policy based on the information at: https://marcorubio.com/issues/debt/ The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

DRAFT IPA of Marco Rubio economic policy

Steve Wallis

This model is an attempt to simulate what is commonly referred to as the “pesticide treadmill” in agriculture and how it played out in the cotton industry in Central America after the Second World War until around the 1990s.

The cotton industry expanded dramatically in Central America after WW2, increasing from 20,000 hectares to 463,000 in the late 1970s. This expansion was accompanied by a huge increase in industrial pesticide application which would eventually become the downfall of the industry.

The primary pest for cotton production, bol weevil, became increasingly resistant to chemical pesticides as they were applied each year. The application of pesticides also caused new pests to appear, such as leafworms, cotton aphids and whitefly, which in turn further fuelled increased application of pesticides.

The treadmill resulted in massive increases in pesticide applications: in the early years they were only applied a few times per season, but this application rose to up to 40 applications per season by the 1970s; accounting for over 50% of the costs of production in some regions.

The skyrocketing costs associated with increasing pesticide use were one of the key factors that led to the dramatic decline of the cotton industry in Central America: decreasing from its peak in the 1970s to less than 100,000 hectares in the 1990s. “In its wake, economic ruin and environmental devastation were left” as once thriving towns became ghost towns, and once fertile soils were wasted, eroded and abandoned (Lappe, 1998).

Sources: Douglas L. Murray (1994), Cultivating Crisis: The Human Cost of Pesticides in Latin America, pp35-41; Francis Moore Lappe et al (1998), World Hunger: 12 Myths, 2nd Edition, pp54-55.

Pesticide Use in Central America Model

Chris Alford

387