Overview   The model shows the industry connection and conflict between Forestry and Mountain Tourism in Derby, Tasmania. The objective of this simulation is to find out the balance point for co-exist.      How Does the Model Work?   Both industries can provide economic contribution to Tasmania.

Overview

The model shows the industry connection and conflict between Forestry and Mountain Tourism in Derby, Tasmania. The objective of this simulation is to find out the balance point for co-exist.

 

How Does the Model Work?

Both industries can provide economic contribution to Tasmania. Firstly, selling timbers through logging would generate income. Also, spendings from mountain bike riders would generate incomes. However, low tree regrowth rate can not cover up logging, which influences the beautiful vistas and riders' experiences. While satisfaction and expectation depend on vistas and experience, the demand of mountain biking would be influenced through repeat visits and world of mouth as well.

 

Interesting Insights

Although forestry can provide a great amount of economic contribution to Tasmania, over logging goes against ESG framework as well as creating conflict with mountain tourism. As long as the number of rider visits is stable, tourism can always provide a greater economic contribution compared to forestry. Therefore, the government should consider the balance point between two industries.

Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a gre
Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a great deal of sense.

Original model done for The Perspectives Project though recast into Kumu.
This is Figure 6 from Lancastle, N. (2012) 'Circuit Theory Extended: The Role of Speculation in Crises' based on Keen, S. (2010). Solving the Paradox of Monetary Profits.   http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2012-34      Banks expand their lending, which in this model leads
This is Figure 6 from Lancastle, N. (2012) 'Circuit Theory Extended: The Role of Speculation in Crises' based on Keen, S. (2010). Solving the Paradox of Monetary Profits.

http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2012-34

Banks expand their lending, which in this model leads to higher production, wages and spending. The result is an increase in total spending.  
Circular equations WIP for Runy.    Added several versions of the model. Added a flow to make C increase. Added a factor to be able to change the value 0.5. Older version cloned at  IM-46280
Circular equations WIP for Runy.

Added several versions of the model. Added a flow to make C increase. Added a factor to be able to change the value 0.5. Older version cloned at IM-46280
 
 Adapted from Fig 12.1 p.476 of the Book James A. Forte ( 2007), Human Behavior and The Social Environment: Models, Metaphors and Maps for Applying Theoretical Perspectives to Practice; Thomson Brooks/Cole Belmont ISBN 0-495-00659-9

Adapted from Fig 12.1 p.476 of the Book James A. Forte ( 2007), Human Behavior and The Social Environment: Models, Metaphors and Maps for Applying Theoretical Perspectives to Practice; Thomson Brooks/Cole Belmont ISBN 0-495-00659-9

Simulation of MTBF with controls   F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt   Where    • F(t) is the probability of failure    • λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example)   • t is the observed service life (h, for example)  The inverse curve is the trust time On the right the increase in failures brings its
Simulation of MTBF with controls

F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt 
Where  
• F(t) is the probability of failure  
• λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example) 
• t is the observed service life (h, for example)

The inverse curve is the trust time
On the right the increase in failures brings its inverse which is loss of trust and move into suspicion and lack of confidence.
This can be seen in strategic social applications with those who put economy before providing the priorities of the basic living infrastructures for all.

This applies to policies and strategic decisions as well as physical equipment.
A) Equipment wears out through friction and preventive maintenance can increase the useful lifetime, 
B) Policies/working practices/guidelines have to be updated to reflect changes in the external environment and eventually be replaced when for instance a population rises too large (constitutional changes are required to keep pace with evolution, e.g. the concepts of the ancient Greeks, 3000 years ago, who based their thoughts on a small population cannot be applied in 2013 except where populations can be contained into productive working communities with balanced profit and loss centers to ensure sustainability)

Early Life
If we follow the slope from the leftmost start to where it begins to flatten out this can be considered the first period. The first period is characterized by a decreasing failure rate. It is what occurs during the “early life” of a population of units. The weaker units fail leaving a population that is more rigorous.

Useful Life
The next period is the flat bottom portion of the graph. It is called the “useful life” period. Failures occur more in a random sequence during this time. It is difficult to predict which failure mode will occur, but the rate of failures is predictable. Notice the constant slope.  

Wearout
The third period begins at the point where the slope begins to increase and extends to the rightmost end of the graph. This is what happens when units become old and begin to fail at an increasing rate. It is called the “wearout” period. 
To maintain economic wealth (roads, hospitals, power
lines, etc.) power needs to be consumed. The same applies to economic activity,
since any activity requires the consumption of energy. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the burning
of fossil fuels was responsible for 79 percent of
To maintain economic wealth (roads, hospitals, power lines, etc.) power needs to be consumed. The same applies to economic activity, since any activity requires the consumption of energy. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the burning of fossil fuels was responsible for 79 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2010. So whilst economic activity takes place fossil fuels will be burned and CO2 emissions are unavoidable - unless we use exclusively renewable energy resources, which is not likely to occur very soon. However, the increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will have negative consequences, such droughts, floods, crop failures, etc. These effects represent limits to economic growth. The CLD illustrates some of the more prominent negative feedback loops that act as a break on economic growth and wealth.  As the negative feedback loops (B1-B4) get stronger, an interesting question is, 'will a sharp reduction in economic wealth and unavoidable recession lead to wide-spread food riots and disturbances?'

This is part of series of model implemented from "Thinking in Systems" book by Donella Meadows
This is part of series of model implemented from "Thinking in Systems" book by Donella Meadows
This model demonstrate how the exisitng tested COVID cases effects economic recovery via goverment intervenes. Assumption:Goverment intervenes positively contribute on transmission, patients recovery, and death elimination. When existing cases equal or lower than 10 cases, economic growth will be so
This model demonstrate how the exisitng tested COVID cases effects economic recovery via goverment intervenes.
Assumption:Goverment intervenes positively contribute on transmission, patients recovery, and death elimination. When existing cases equal or lower than 10 cases, economic growth will be soaring with helps of influencial elements.
Interesting points: even though there are certain amount of unknow cases, enhancing social restriction and increasing test rate ould still reduce amount of cases
OVERSHOOT GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION  The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed  The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunb
OVERSHOOT GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
WIP based mostly on Jan
Toporowski  2013 vol 1  and  2018 vol 2  books on Michal Kalecki: An Intellectual Biography   Layout Consistent with  David Wheat MacroEconomic model CLD Insight  by Gene Bellinger  
WIP based mostly on Jan Toporowski 2013 vol 1 and 2018 vol 2 books on Michal Kalecki: An Intellectual Biography  
Layout Consistent with David Wheat MacroEconomic model CLD Insight by Gene Bellinger  
 Simple epidemiological model for Burnie, Tasmania   SIR: Susceptible to infection - Infected - Recovery, Government responses and Economic impacts           Government policy is activated when there are 10 or fewer reported cases of COVID-19. The more people tested, the fewer people became infected
Simple epidemiological model for Burnie, Tasmania
SIR: Susceptible to infection - Infected - Recovery, Government responses and Economic impacts  

Government policy is activated when there are 10 or fewer reported cases of COVID-19. The more people tested, the fewer people became infected. So the government's policy is to reduce infections by increasing the number of people tested and starting early. At the same time, it has slowed the economic growth (which, according to the model,  will stop for next 52 weeks).
  Overview  The model simulates how logging in with tourism(mountain biking) in Derby Tasmania.   How the model works.   Trees grow, loggers cut them in order to sell them because of demand for Timber.  Mountain cyclist depends on satisfaction and expectation.  Satisfaction and Expectation depends o
Overview
The model simulates how logging in with tourism(mountain biking) in Derby Tasmania.
How the model works.
Trees grow, loggers cut them in order to sell them because of demand for Timber.
Mountain cyclist depends on satisfaction and expectation.  Satisfaction and Expectation depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users.  Park capacity limits the number of users.  Local Business is influenced by the timber and number of Mountain Cyclist. Employment is influenced by the number of mountain cyclist and logging activity.