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Butterfly Effect
Sensitivity To Initial Conditions
(sensitive dependence on initial conditions)
Navier Stokes Equations
Lorenz Attractor
Chaos Theory, Disorder and Entropy

Although the butterfly effect may appear to be an esoteric and unlikely behavior, it is exhibited by very simple systems: for example, a ball placed at the crest of a hill may roll into any of several valleys depending on, among other things, slight differences in initial position. Similarly the direction a pencil falls when held on its tip, or an universe during its initial stages.
These attractors apply to social systems and economics showing jumps between potential wells, and showing the strategic scaling behavior of rotating and cyclic systems whether they be social, economic, or complex spin or rotation of planets affecting weather and climate or spin of galaxies or elementary particles, or even a rock on the end of a piece of string.

What Playing with numbers is all about :)

If M is the state space for the map , then  displays sensitive dependence to initial conditions if for any x in M and any δ > 0, there are y in M, with  such that
THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT
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How education causes the gap between socio-economic status?
education causal loop
Insight diagram
Explanation of the Model

This is a sample model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania showing how the Government responds by implementing relevant health policy and the effects on the Economy of the area. 
 
Assumptions

Economic growth rate is dependent on the proportion of the population who can be exposed. Number of COVID cases negatively impacts the economy. Govt policy is triggered when COVID-19 cases are 10 or more.

Interesting Insights

1) Exposure to the disease has a positive relationship with economic growth rate because the more people goes out, more business activity takes place, resulting in Economic Growth.

2) Increasing the Testing rate results in:

- Higher cases being detected

- Stricter Govt Policy

- Less Deaths


 


Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania
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The term 'work' has been  used in this model in the sense of economic activity to include not only work done by people but also by machines. The model shows 8 positive feedback loops that reinforce work and the need to work. From the perspective of physics, civilisation can be described as a MECHANISM FOR USING ENERGY AND DOING WORK.  

Work, however, has some unavoidable consequences. The second law of thermodynamics tells us that any ‘work’ requires the use of energy and that DOING WORK entails the generation of WASTE HEAT. The laws of physics also tell us that CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels will cause global warming. These unintended and unavoidable consequences are highlighted in the model by prominent arrows.

Can the structure of this system be changed to avoid a foreseeable collapse of civilisation?

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Do economic activity and work unavoidably lead to doom?
Insight diagram

This model demonstrates the intertwining relationship between the economic contribution of industrial logging and that of adventure tourism (dominated by mountain biking).

In terms of the revenue from industrial logging at Derby, it is driven by demand of timber and the timber price. However, the forest resources are limited, which will put constraints on the expansion of industrial logging due to regrowth rate and existing forestation.

The tourism can bring economic benefits to Derby from hospitality and selling tickets to local adventure activities. The hospitality income can be determined by the average length of holidaying at Derby and average local pricing for accommodation, food and beverages and related essentials. Tickets sales are largely affected by the similar factors such as average expense per activity and average number of activities that tourists usually choose. Having explained the streams of possible income from the tourism, the key driver for tourism income is the desire or demand to travel. Unlikely logging, tourism is renewable and perpetual. However, logging can be conceived as a major constraint on attracting as many tourists as the economy so desires.

This is because deforestation caused by logging will diminish the natural scenery at Derby and in turn, the tourist operations and attractions based upon natural scenery. Loss of forest resources is likely to make Derby less attractive to visitors.

In short, the tourism and logging both provides economic benefits to Derby but in a competing relationship. However, the sustainability possessed by tourism cannot be rivaled by industrial logging in long term. Logging revenue reveals its advantage at inception of observed time period. Such advantage wears out over the time due to reduction in resources and sluggish regrowth. Eventually. the tourism income turns into the major player. To understand how they co-exist, please simulate the model. 

Yuanhao Luo 583089 Logging v Mountain Biking
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Economic capital growth model, Figure 27 from Thinking in Systems by Donella H. Meadows
REM 221 – Figure 27 - Economic Capital Growth
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Current and proposed Structure of CCP and related Models expanding on the details provided in the Project Completion plan IM-101760
Structure of the CCP Models
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This model shows the operation of a simple economy. It demonstrates the effect of changes in the fractional rate of consumption (or the converse the fractional rate of saving.)

In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of production and consumption in the long-run.
Simple Economy: Model 8
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This model also shows the operation of a simple economy. It differs from Model 1 primarily in the representation of all goods in the economy by units of measure of a higher level of abstraction. Thus, the same model can represent economies at different levels.

The simulation demonstrates how differing rates of consumption affect Savings.
Simple Economy: Model 2
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This simple model is derived from  D.H. Meadows, Thinking in Systems chapter 2, figures 27 and 28.  It is designed to explain and demonstrate how the economic system is driven by both an amplifying feedback loop (shown in blue) and a stabilizing feedback loop (shown in red).
Project 2: Meadows Economic Capital Model
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Socio-economic
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An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.
Coffee Pods ISD Humanities v 1.02
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Barangay IRAWAN Systems Model
Biophysical, Socio-cultural & Economic Data of Bgy. IRAWAN
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A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
ISD Savings Plan
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A Tragedy of the Commons situation exists whenever two or more activities, each, which in order to produce results, rely on a shared limited resource. Results for these activities continue to develop as long as their use of the limited resource doesn't exceed the resource limit. Once this limit is reached the results produced by each activity are limited to the level at which the resource is replenished. As an example, consider multiple departments with an organization using IT resources, until they've exhausted IT capacity.

Environmental economics Niger Delta oil polluted case study
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Socio-economic factors (kaya)
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Based on the Market and Price simulation model in System Zoo 3, Z504. In this model the profit calculations were not realistic. They were based on the per unit profit, which does not take items not sold into account. Also the model was not very clear on profit since it was included in the total production costs and consequently in the unit costs and subsequently profit was calculated by subtracting unit costs of the market price. Thus profit had a double layer which does not make the model better accessible. I have tried to remedy both in this simplified version.
Simplified and changed Z504 Market and Price - System Zoo 3
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WIP of several books of Karl Polanyi's thoughts and papers around social science economic history and capitalism. . See also Summary of the Great Transformation IM-10640
Karl Polanyi Holistic thinking
3 7 months ago
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Solow model without external factors.
Solow Model
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This model shows the structure and operation of a simple economy. It can represent economic systems at different levels of abstraction (e.g. a single good, a group of goods, multiple groups, & an "economy.")

This model has one significant difference from Model 4. The fractional consumption rate table serves the purpose of demonstrating the effects of changes in the fractional consumption rate (or the converse the fractional rate of saving) from 100% to less-than 100% to more-than 100%.

It demonstrates dramatically the effects of significant changes in consumption rates.
Simple Economy: Model 5
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Simple model of the global economy, the global carbon cycle, and planetary energy balance.

The planetary energy balance model is a two-box model, with shallow and deep ocean heat reservoirs. The carbon cycle model is a 4-box model, with the atmosphere, shallow ocean, deep ocean, and terrestrial carbon. 

The economic model is based on the Kaya identity, which decomposes CO2 emissions into population, GDP/capita, energy intensity of GDP, and carbon intensity of energy. It allows for temperature-related climate damages to both GDP and the growth rate of GDP.

This model was originally created by Bob Kopp (Rutgers University) in support of the SESYNC Climate Learning Project.
Simple Climate-Carbon-Economic Model
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This is the summary of lecture ​1 of my Course about StartUps. It's an intro to the startup ecosystem and the different stakeholders that can interact with your new enterprise at different stages of its evolution and growth. -version 1 - for info or suggestions: bonato.pietroz@gmail.com
StartUp ecosystem
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​In a recent report, the World Economic Forum considered that the use of robots in economic activity will cause far more job losses in the near future than there will be new ones created. Every economic sector will be affected. The CLD tries to illustrate the dynamic effects of replacing human workers with robots. This  dynamic  indicates that if there is no replacement of the  income forgone by the laid off workers, then the economy will soon grind to a halt. To avoid disaster, there must be enough money in circulation, not parked in off-shore investments, to permit the purchase of all the goods and services produced by robots. The challenge for the government is to make sure that this is  case.  

ROBOTS AND A DISATROUS ECONOMIC DYNAMIC