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Simpler view IM-70351 combined with Economic ViewIM-69774 in preparation for integrating with Prevention Investment Framework (private) IM

Reworked at Multiscale simpler view IM

Integrating Simple and Economic Views of Prevention

Geoff McDonnell

Economics

Pachka Hammami

Lakon_Energy Economics Fossil Fuel

Nick Lakon

PO 2020

Andreas Romppel

How education causes the gap between socio-economic status?

education causal loop

Hanbit Jeong

6

LS Greenway

Olga

The upper diagram shows the principal factors that have an influence on the budget deficit and indicates what needs to be done to correct it. But this is not the full story. The diagram below shows that cutting public expenditure reduces aggregate demand and increases unemployment. The reduction of aggregate demand reduces economic activity which has the effect of reducing tax revenue. In addition, the state has to pay out funds as there is a need for more unemployment benefit payments. The result of these austerity measures is often the opposite of their intended purpose: they can increase rather than decrease the budget deficit.

There is plenty of empiric evidence to show that this has happened time and time again. For instance, a report from UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) found that between 1990 and 2000 in all the cases examined where cutbacks in public spending and tax increases were used, the fiscal situation did not only not improve but worsened. Despite such repeated evidence, unfortunately calls for austerity measures continue to be heard.

Fallacy of Spending Cuts

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Calculating EOQ using classical inventory model

Economic Order Quantity

Ashish Mendiratta

4

nuclear_economic

Lehwanseung

Healthcare Economic System

Rod Wallace

An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.

Coffee Pods ISD Humanities v 1.02

Kevin Collins

367

WIP Overview model structures of Khalid Saeed's 2014 WPI paper Jay Forrester’s Disruptive Models of Economic Behavior See also General SD and Macroeconomics CLDs IM-168865

Jay Forrester's Disruptive Economic Models

Geoff McDonnell

11 months ago

Modern industrial civilisation has created massive interdependencies which define it and without which it could not function. We all depend on industrial farming to produce the food we eat, we depend on gasoline being available at the gas station, on the availability of electricity and even on the bread supplied by the local baker. Naturally, we tend to support the institutions that supply the amenities and goods to which we have become accustomed: if we get our food from the local supermarket, it is likely that we would be opposed to it’s closure. This means that the economic system that relies on continuous growth enjoys implicit societal support and that nothing short of environmental disaster or a shortage of essential raw materials will impede it’s growing indefinitely. It is not hard to work out the consequences of this situation!

The Inescapable Dynamic of Economic Growth

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

3

Solow model without external factors.

Solow Model

AR

4

A Tragedy of the Commons situation exists whenever two or more activities, each, which in order to produce results, rely on a shared limited resource. Results for these activities continue to develop as long as their use of the limited resource doesn't exceed the resource limit. Once this limit is reached the results produced by each activity are limited to the level at which the resource is replenished. As an example, consider multiple departments with an organization using IT resources, until they've exhausted IT capacity.

Environmental economics Niger Delta oil polluted case study

suryadev pendyala

In a recent report, the World Economic Forum considered that the use of robots in economic activity will cause far more job losses in the near future than there will be new ones created. Every economic sector will be affected. The CLD tries to illustrate the dynamic effects of replacing human workers with robots. This dynamic indicates that if there is no replacement of the income forgone by the laid off workers, then the economy will soon grind to a halt. To avoid disaster, there must be enough money in circulation, not parked in off-shore investments, to permit the purchase of all the goods and services produced by robots. The challenge for the government is to make sure that this is case.

ROBOTS AND A DISATROUS ECONOMIC DYNAMIC

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

INTRODUCTION

This is a balanced loop model that demonstrates how COVID 19 outbreak in Burnie and the response of the government (e.g. by enforcing health policies: Lockdown; quarantine, non-necessary business closure; border closure) affect the local economy. This model has 13 positive loops and seven negative loops. Government response is dependent on the number of reported COVID-19 cases which in turn thought to be dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered from COVID 19 and dead. Economic activity is dependent on the economic growth rate, increased in online shopping, increased in unemployment, number of people who do not obey the rules, COVID 19 cases and health policies.

ASSUMPTIONS

· Both infection and economic growth is reduced by enforcing government policies

· However, the negative effect of government policies is reduced by the number of people who do not obey government health policies

· Govt policies are enforced when the reported COVID-19 case are 10 or greater.

· Number of COVID cases reported is dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered and dead.

· The higher number of COVID-19 cases have a negative effect on local economy. This phenomena is known as negative signalling.

· Government policies have a negative effect on economic activity because health policies limit both social and economic activities which directly or indirectly affect the economy in Burnie .

· This negative effect is somewhat reduced by the increase in online shopping and the number of people who do not obey heath rules.

INTERESTING INSIGHTS

The test ratings seem to play a vital role in controlling COVID-19 outbreak. Higher Rates of COVID testings decrease the number of COVID 19 deaths and number of infected. This is because higher rates of testing accelerate the government involvement (as the government intervention is triggered earlier, 10 COVID cases mark is reached earlier). Delaying the government intervention by reducing the COVID testing rates increases the death rates and number of infected.

Increased testing rates allow the figures (deaths, susceptible, infected) to reach a plateau quickly.

BMA708- Shakila Bethmage- 548351 - COVID 19 Outbreak in Burnie

Shakila Piyumi Perera Bethmage

Simulation of Goodwin01 Minsky Model CLD in IM-172002 Compare with Part3 slide 3 of presentation in patreon. See extension Goodwin02 at IM-172145

Goodwin Minsky Simulation Keen Economic Dynamics Aug2019

Geoff McDonnell

5

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.

BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.

CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Guy Lakeman

92

This paper aims at describing a case where system dynamics modeling was used to evaluate the effects of information and material supply lead-time variation on sales contributions margins and operating cash conversion cycle of a commodity export business. An empirical dynamic model, loaded with econometric theory of price effect on competitive demand, was used to describe the input data. The model simulation outputs proved themselves relevant in analyzing the complex interconnections of multiple variables affecting the profitability in a commercial routine, supporting the decision process among sales managers.

SDR Case study System dynamic modelling

Marcos Fraiha

6

Archetype: Success to the successful

The more pioneer seed being sold, the more corn is grown. As more corn is grown, the more pioneer seeds are needed for the next harvest. More people began using the pioneer seeds, less people used the Ghanaian seeds. However, the pioneer seed is expensive, so not everyone could buy the pioneer seed. The more people using Ghanaian corn seeds, less people were using pioneer seeds.

Way out:

The best way out of this would probably be to lower the price of the pioneer seed. The pioneer seed produces more corn that is sweeter. People prefer this corn over the corn from the Ghanaian seeds. More people are using the pioneer seeds, so gradually Ghanaian seeds will no longer be used. Lowering the price of pioneer seeds will make it available to more farmers. This way, less farmers will go out of business from trying to compete with more sweeter corn.

Sources:

Randall, R. (2014, December 15). Are African farmers in danger of becoming slaves to patented seeds? | Genetic Literacy Project. Retrieved January 18, 2016, from https://www.geneticliteracyproject.org/2014/12/15/are-african-farmers-in-danger-of-becoming-slaves-to-patented-seeds/

Is 4-H trying to hook African farmers on costly seeds? (2014, November 17). Retrieved January 18, 2016, from http://grist.org/food/is-4-h-trying-to-hook-african-farmers-on-costly-seeds/

Butler, K. (n.d.). How America's favorite baby-goat club is helping Big Ag take over farming in Africa. Retrieved January 18, 2016, from http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/11/4h-africa-farming-dupont-hybrid-seeds

4-H Club in Africa - Economical

Scarlet Benoit Kesley

Map of Geoffrey M Hodgson's 2015 Conceptualizing Capitalism book summary pdf with other ideologies added sept 2021 from new politics website

Capitalism and Ideologies

Geoff McDonnell

3

4H's Pioneer Seeds (Economical)

Grace K.

Model

Victor Wong