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Adam Smith's The Invisible Hand: The Feedback Structure of Markets. From Sterman JD Business Dynamics p170 Fig 5-26. A price-mediated resource allocation system..

Price control mechanism

Geoff McDonnell

6

WIP based mostly on Jan Toporowski 2013 vol 1 and 2018 vol 2 books on Michal Kalecki: An Intellectual Biography

Layout Consistent with David Wheat MacroEconomic model CLD Insight by Gene Bellinger

Kalecki economic thought

Geoff McDonnell

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Mike Huckabee's economic policy based on the information at: http://www.mikehuckabee.com/tax-reform and http://www.mikehuckabee.com/spending-debt (here, the candidate did not have a single clear economic policy, so we used economic elements from other policy statements that were clearly relevant). The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

DRAFT IPA of Mike Huckabee Economic Policy

Steve Wallis

In a recent report, the World Economic Forum considered that the use of robots in economic activity will cause far more job losses in the near future than there will be new ones created. Every economic sector will be affected. The CLD tries to illustrate the dynamic effects of replacing human workers with robots. This dynamic indicates that if there is no replacement of the income forgone by the laid off workers, then the economy will soon grind to a halt. To avoid disaster, there must be enough money in circulation, not parked in off-shore investments, to permit the purchase of all the goods and services produced by robots. The challenge for the government is to make sure that this is case.

ROBOTS AND A DISATROUS ECONOMIC DYNAMIC

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

I made this model to simulate how a companies revenue will change depending on the lifetime of the appliances it manufactures, in combination with the ratio of repair costs and price. It also shows the accumulation of e-waste.

Simulatie apparaten

Henny van Dongen

Model based on chapter 10 (opportunity cost) of the book Modeling Dynamic Economic Systems

Opportunity cost I

AR

308

WIP replication of Khalid Saeed's draft paper presented by the Economics chapter of the SD Society in Sept 2019 youtube video

Unlinking public finance and taxation in fiat currency

Geoff McDonnell

The term 'work' has been used in this model in the sense of economic activity to include not only work done by people but also by machines. The model shows 8 positive feedback loops that reinforce work and the need to work. From the perspective of physics, civilisation can be described as a MECHANISM FOR USING ENERGY AND DOING WORK.

Work, however, has some unavoidable consequences. The second law of thermodynamics tells us that any ‘work’ requires the use of energy and that DOING WORK entails the generation of WASTE HEAT. The laws of physics also tell us that CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels will cause global warming. These unintended and unavoidable consequences are highlighted in the model by prominent arrows.

Can the structure of this system be changed to avoid a foreseeable collapse of civilisation?

Do economic activity and work unavoidably lead to doom?

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

3 weeks ago

Challenge p.212 Business Dynamics, Sterman

Oil Shortage 1979 Iran Revolution

Roland Kofler

3

Economic growth cannot go on forever, although politicians and most economist seem to think so. The activity involved in economic growth necessarily generates entropy (disorder and environmental degradation). Entorpy in turn generates powerful negative feedback loops which will, as a response from nature, ensure that economic activity will eventually grind to a complete halt. In these circumstances organised society cannot persist and will collapse. The negative feedback loops shown in this graph have already started to operate. The longer economic growth continues unabated, the more powerful these negative feedback loops will become. How long can economic growth continue before it is overwhelmed? It may not be very far in the future.

Entropy and Negative Feedback may stop Growth soon

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

3

This model shows the structure and operation of a simple economy. It can represent economic systems at different levels of abstraction (e.g. a single good, a group of goods, multiple groups, & an "economy.")

In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of production and consumption in the long-run. Rates of consumption over 100% of production will diminish the savings stock and eventually cause rates of production and consumption to fall.

Simple Economy: Model 6

Jim Berger

4

This simple model is derived from D.H. Meadows, Thinking in Systems chapter 2, figures 27 and 28. It is designed to explain and demonstrate how the economic system is driven by both an amplifying feedback loop (shown in blue) and a stabilizing feedback loop (shown in red).

Project 2: Meadows Economic Capital Model

Stephanie Fogg

Video Game Economics

Diyar Sautov

Capitalism is in crisis and climate change disruption is now beginning to hit the bottom line. Insurance companies know this well. According to a report by the Bank of England, insured losses have risen from $10 000 million in 1985 to $50 000 million in 2015. Climate change cannot be reversed, and extreme weather events will undoubtedly get worse in the future strengthening the disruptive effects shown in the CLD. Another dynamic is that companies will continue to automate and, as The Economic Policy Institute has shown, fail to reflect productivity gains in workers' salaries. The result, stagnating salaries is disastrous for demand, given that capitalism needs endlessly rising demand and consumption. A further serious problem is that as climate change gets worse there will be increasing demands for companies to assume their responsibility and bear the costs of negative externalities. The CLD shows these factors which are likely to lead to the collapse of the system: when capitalism can no longer generate 'capital' it has stopped to serves any useful purpose.

DOES THIS DYNAMIC SPELL THE END OF CAPITALISM

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Model

Victor Wong

Commercial aviation economic activity in the EU

刘翱玮

4 months ago

Simplification of Prevention Investment Framework (private) IM See WIP integrating with economic view insight (private) and multiscale version IM private

HYPER Model Overview

Geoff McDonnell

3

Based on G.P. Cimellaro et al. Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 3639–3649 paper

Facilities Disaster Resilience

Geoff McDonnell

Simple tragedy of the commons behavior model.

Common Resources

Osman Murat Anlı

4

Microeconomic measures can produce counterintuitive 'emergent' effects at the macro or systemic level. The commendable act of saving money by individuals during uncertain economic times has the perverse macroeconomic effect of making a recession worse: in aggregate there will be less money available for spending, suppressing demand for goods and services. Economists call this effect 'the paradox of thrift'. Similarly, logical efforts by companies in such conditions to reduce their wage bill or their postponement of investment decisions will reduce spending in the economy and deepen the economic downturn.

What can be done to counteract this harmful dynamic? The missing spending can be replaced by government spending: governments have it within their power to effectively counter economic downturns!

Microeconomic Savings can convert to Macroeconomic Costs

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Final Project w/ socio-economic

Claire Murley

5

Deforestation and Economic Development Thitikarn

012 ธิติกาญจน์ ดํามณี

4 months ago

INTRODUCTION

This is a balanced loop model that demonstrates how COVID 19 outbreak in Burnie and the response of the government (e.g. by enforcing health policies: Lockdown; quarantine, non-necessary business closure; border closure) affect the local economy. This model has 13 positive loops and seven negative loops. Government response is dependent on the number of reported COVID-19 cases which in turn thought to be dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered from COVID 19 and dead. Economic activity is dependent on the economic growth rate, increased in online shopping, increased in unemployment, number of people who do not obey the rules, COVID 19 cases and health policies.

ASSUMPTIONS

· Both infection and economic growth is reduced by enforcing government policies

· However, the negative effect of government policies is reduced by the number of people who do not obey government health policies

· Govt policies are enforced when the reported COVID-19 case are 10 or greater.

· Number of COVID cases reported is dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered and dead.

· The higher number of COVID-19 cases have a negative effect on local economy. This phenomena is known as negative signalling.

· Government policies have a negative effect on economic activity because health policies limit both social and economic activities which directly or indirectly affect the economy in Burnie .

· This negative effect is somewhat reduced by the increase in online shopping and the number of people who do not obey heath rules.

INTERESTING INSIGHTS

The test ratings seem to play a vital role in controlling COVID-19 outbreak. Higher Rates of COVID testings decrease the number of COVID 19 deaths and number of infected. This is because higher rates of testing accelerate the government involvement (as the government intervention is triggered earlier, 10 COVID cases mark is reached earlier). Delaying the government intervention by reducing the COVID testing rates increases the death rates and number of infected.

Increased testing rates allow the figures (deaths, susceptible, infected) to reach a plateau quickly.

BMA708- Shakila Bethmage- 548351 - COVID 19 Outbreak in Burnie

Shakila Piyumi Perera Bethmage

Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a great deal of sense.

Original model done for The Perspectives Project though recast into Kumu.

Why Nations Fail

Fanda Bunda