Macquarie University | MGMT220: Fundamentals of Business Analytics |  Assignment Task #3: Complex Systems by Ying Chen (42151619)  This simple model uses the following key factors to demostrate the behaviour within the real estate market, bank's interest rates, median sale price, and listed sale pr
Macquarie University | MGMT220: Fundamentals of Business Analytics | Assignment Task #3: Complex Systems by Ying Chen (42151619)

This simple model uses the following key factors to demostrate the behaviour within the real estate market, bank's interest rates, median sale price, and listed sale price.

Sliders located below can be used to set values to simulate the affects over time.
A model explaining the relationships between: an in-house advisory firm, multi-tied advisers, customers, in-house product providers, in-house sales support and business development initiatives.
A model explaining the relationships between: an in-house advisory firm, multi-tied advisers, customers, in-house product providers, in-house sales support and business development initiatives.
Model-SIM-GD is model-SIM from chapter 3 of Wynn Godley and Marc Lavoie's  Monetary Economics,  but modified .  Simplest model with government money that is also stock-flow consistent, but with government debt (GD) added to the system.    Households consume out of both current income (wages + intere
Model-SIM-GD is model-SIM from chapter 3 of Wynn Godley and Marc Lavoie's Monetary Economics, but modified. Simplest model with government money that is also stock-flow consistent, but with government debt (GD) added to the system.

Households consume out of both current income (wages + interest income from government bonds) and prior stock of wealth. Model assumes households only own a portion of existing government debt (equity position of government sector), so interest payment flows on government debt are defined as only those going to the households sector, the remaining proportion is assumed to be owned by the government itself and interest is paid to itself (think of a consolidated government Treasury and Central Bank as CB remits interest income, minus operational expenses, back to Treasury). The production sector is a pass through of income back to households. The production sector does not save and does not invest (i.e., buy "capital" goods from itself). 

The model is stock-flow consistent as all sectoral expenditure flows are monitored to confirm balances balance as an accounting identity, as does equity. 
Controle de uma fazenda de leite, onde o número de vacas e a quantidade de leite produzido e o custo da produção interfere no lucro.
Controle de uma fazenda de leite, onde o número de vacas e a quantidade de leite produzido e o custo da produção interfere no lucro.
Causal loop diagram illustrating a variety of feedback loops influencing the price of oil.
Causal loop diagram illustrating a variety of feedback loops influencing the price of oil.
The Bioresource Model is circular in its nature, and can be divided into two halves, or arcs, within the circle: 1) Primary bioresources = the food and fiber system, and  2) Secondary bioresources = organic waste that is manufactured into secondary bioproducts, e.g. soil amendments (like compost), a
The Bioresource Model is circular in its nature, and can be divided into two halves, or arcs, within the circle:
1) Primary bioresources = the food and fiber system, and
2) Secondary bioresources = organic waste that is manufactured into secondary bioproducts, e.g. soil amendments (like compost), animal feed, materials & chemicals, and energy (fuels, electricity, and CHP)
Simulating Hyperinflation for 3650 days.  If private bond holdings are going down and the government is running a big deficit then the central bank has to monetize bonds equal to the deficit plus the decrease in private bond holdings.  We don't show the details of the central bank buying bonds here,
Simulating Hyperinflation for 3650 days.

If private bond holdings are going down and the government is running a big deficit then the central bank has to monetize bonds equal to the deficit plus the decrease in private bond holdings.  We don't show the details of the central bank buying bonds here, just the net results.

See blog at http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com for more on hyperinflation, including a hyperinflation FAQ.
We are modeling future cash flows in the system consisting of three interacting parties, one of which secures deals between the two others which do not trust each other.
We are modeling future cash flows in the system consisting of three interacting parties, one of which secures deals between the two others which do not trust each other.
This framework can be used to evaluate the sustainability of a country's debt profile. The dynamics generated are based on the interaction and feedback between a government agent, a rating agency and the financial market in a stock-flow consistent manner.
This framework can be used to evaluate the sustainability of a country's debt profile. The dynamics generated are based on the interaction and feedback between a government agent, a rating agency and the financial market in a stock-flow consistent manner.
Model-SIM from chapter 3 of Wynn Godley and Marc Lavoie's  Monetary Economics.  Simplest model with government money that is also stock-flow consistent.
Model-SIM from chapter 3 of Wynn Godley and Marc Lavoie's Monetary Economics. Simplest model with government money that is also stock-flow consistent.
Problemas  de Ratios  de   custos  fixos  diversos  multiprodutos
Problemas  de Ratios  de   custos  fixos  diversos  multiprodutos
Simulating Hyperinflation for 3650 days.  If private bond holdings are going down and the government is running a big deficit then the central bank has to monetize bonds equal to the deficit plus the decrease in private bond holdings.  We don't show the details of the central bank buying bonds here,
Simulating Hyperinflation for 3650 days.

If private bond holdings are going down and the government is running a big deficit then the central bank has to monetize bonds equal to the deficit plus the decrease in private bond holdings.  We don't show the details of the central bank buying bonds here, just the net results.

See blog at http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com for more on hyperinflation, including a hyperinflation FAQ.
 *scroll to bottom for user inputs*     FIRE_simulation  v1.0  20200618     A personal finance simulation to predict retirement date.       with some adjustable variables, and some probabilistic variables, you can run a simulation of 500 clones of yourself pre->post FIRE and see how many clones r
*scroll to bottom for user inputs*

FIRE_simulation
v1.0
20200618

A personal finance simulation to predict retirement date. 

with some adjustable variables, and some probabilistic variables, you can run a simulation of 500 clones of yourself pre->post FIRE and see how many clones retire at what years.

Some clones get lucky with the market and eg low child costs -> retire early.
Some clones get bad luck and take a few more years to retire!

can also track a clones assets, income, savings rate over time.

Also can use to stress-test (eg poor market returns), and goal seek (assets go to zero when i die. to retire earlier)

Top right are variables about me.
Top left are market variables.
bottom right are simulant/clone (output) info.

Middle 'folder' represents a clone of me.

some vars arent fixed, rather probabilities eg child costs being unknown, i have normally distributed it (my half of costs) around $12k pa and each clone of me gets a random cost on the dist for the simulation. I will add and update in next version

Sign up to insightmaker, click "clone insight" and build/adjust your own modelling. Or send feedback to phillip.balding@gmail.com


programming notes:
-market return years running consecutively not random.
-future years return FIRE rule
-cap_gains and pay_super flows can now be neg
-intro of super still seems too high, grows too much after 60
-rearrange user input variables

To do:
-get actual historical dividends
-goalseek to die with 0 assets -> minimise retirement age.
-year begin not integer?
-auto interpolation seems good.
-tidy the fucking model map mess
-fix child costs at initial random dist.
Simulating Hyperinflation for 3650 days.  If private bond holdings are going down and the government is running a big deficit then the central bank has to monetize bonds equal to the deficit plus the decrease in private bond holdings.  We don't show the details of the central bank buying bonds here,
Simulating Hyperinflation for 3650 days.

If private bond holdings are going down and the government is running a big deficit then the central bank has to monetize bonds equal to the deficit plus the decrease in private bond holdings.  We don't show the details of the central bank buying bonds here, just the net results.

See blog at http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com for more on hyperinflation, including a hyperinflation FAQ.
Simulating Hyperinflation for 3650 days.  If private bond holdings are going down and the government is running a big deficit then the central bank has to monetize bonds equal to the deficit plus the decrease in private bond holdings.  We don't show the details of the central bank buying bonds here,
Simulating Hyperinflation for 3650 days.

If private bond holdings are going down and the government is running a big deficit then the central bank has to monetize bonds equal to the deficit plus the decrease in private bond holdings.  We don't show the details of the central bank buying bonds here, just the net results.

See blog at http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com for more on hyperinflation, including a hyperinflation FAQ.