Overview 

This model not only reveals the conflict between proposed logging of adjacent coups and Mountain bike in Derby but also simulates competition between them. The simulation model aims to investigate the potential coexistence opportunities between the mountain biking and forestry and find out the optimal point for coexistence to help improve Tasmania’s economy. 

 

How the model works 

It is recognized that the mountain biking and forestry industries can help support the Tasmanian community and strengthen the Tasmanian economy. The logging and forest sector in Derby can help the local community generate wealth and create more employment opportunities. The sector main source of income come from selling timber such as domestic and export sales. Nevertheless, the sector’s profit has decreased over the past few years on account of the weaker demand and reduced output. Accordingly, the profitability and output of the sector have fluctuated in response to the availability of timber, the timber price movements as well as the impact of changing demand conditions in downstream timber processing sectors. The slow growth rate for a timber has a negative impact on the profitability of the forestry industry and the economic contribution of this industry is set to grow slower, as there is a positive correlation between these variables. In addition, the mountain biking industry in Derby can bring a huge significant economic contribution to the local community. The revenue streams of the industry come from bike rental, accommodation, retail purchase and meals and beverages. These variables also influence the past experience which is positive correlation between reviews and satisfaction that can impact the demand for the mountain biking trails. More importantly, the low regeneration rate for a timber can have a negative impact on the landscape of the mountain biking and the tourist’s past experience that led to a decrease in the demand of tourists for the mountain biking, as the reviews and satisfaction are dependent on the landscape and past experience. It is evident that the industry not only helps the local community generate wealth through industry value addition but also creates a lot of employment opportunities. Therefore, the Mountain Bike Trails can be regarded as sustainable tourism that can help increase employment opportunities and economic contribution that can be of main economic significance to the Tasmania’s economy. Therefore, both industries can co-exist that can maximise the economic contribution to the local community and the Tasmanian economy.

Interesting Insights

It is interesting to note that the activity of cutting down trees does not influence the development of Mountain Biking industry. By lowering the prices of accommodation, food, bike rental and souvenirs, it can help increase the reviews and recommendations of Mountain Biking that will enhance the number of tourists. In this case, the Mountain Biking industry can achieve sustainable economic growth in the long-term while the economic growth rate of forestry industry will continue to decrease. 

A Conveyor is essentially an infinite order exponential delay.  This insight illustrates how increasing the order of an exponential delay begins to approximate a conveyor.  The 10th order delay very closely aligns to the Delay 10 Conveyor.

A new archetype, The Tyranny of Small Steps (TYST) has been observed. Explained through a system dynamics perspective, the archetypical behaviour TYST is an unwanted change to a system through a series of small activities that may be independent from one another. These activities are small enough not to be detected by the ‘surveillance’ within the system, but significant enough to encroach upon the “tolerance” zone of the system and compromise the integrity of the system. TYST is an unintentional process that is experienced within the system and made possible by the lack of transparency between an overarching level and a local level where the encroachment is taking place.

Reference:

Haraldsson, H. V., Sverdrup, H. U., Belyazid, S., Holmqvist, J. and Gramstad, R. C. J. (2008), The Tyranny of Small Steps: a reoccurring behaviour in management. Syst. Res., 25: 25–43. doi: 10.1002/sres.859 

Overview 

A simple model simulates the conflict between adventure tourism (mountain biking) and logging in Derby, Tasmania. It demonstrates how these industries co-exist and in what circumstances would affect the interests of both parties. 

How does the model work? 

The demand for mountain biking came from visitors' enjoyment of nature and desire for scenery. Adventure is driven by the excitement of visitors with their experience and friends' recommendations.  

The demand for timber leads to the amount of logging, and its price per log impacts forest revenue. It brought employment opportunities to the local residents in Derby Mountain. The excessive deforestation affects landscapes and scenery, so regrowth is essential. 

Interesting Insights 

The major rebate is reducing park spaces will degrade visitors' experience of enjoyment with nature. Still, at the same time, logging brings significant business benefits to the local residents.  The environmental effect of being well-managed between mountain bikes and logging needs to be depth-explored and balanced. 

Overview

A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania. 

How the model works:

Trees grow, and we cut them down because of the demand for Timber and sell the logs. Mountain bikers and holiday visitors will come to the park and this depends on experience and recommendations.  Past experience and recommendations depend on the Scenery, number of trees compared to the visitor and Adventure number of trees and users.  Park capacity limits the number of users.  To utilize highest park capacity, they need to promote to the holiday visitor segment as well. Again, the visit depends on the scenery. So, both mountain biking and forestry (logging) businesses need to contribute a significant amount of revenue to CSR for faster regrowth of trees.

Interesting insights

It looks like a lot of logging doesn't stop people from mountain biking. 

Faster replantation of the tree will balance out the impact created by logging which will give the visitor a positive experience and the number of visitors is both improved. 

To keep the park's popularity in check, the price of wood needs to be high. 

Also, it looks like mountain biking only needs a narrow path.

CSR contribution to nature can be a crucial factor. 

Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation.  Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function.  Repeat (A) & (B).

Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation.  Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function.  Repeat (A) & (B).

Ciclo 1 extra repair consturction errors rework

Virusausbreitung von Covis-19 in Deutschland

An overview of this quantitative systems science method based on Kurt Kreuger's workshops for public health

A model that shows how the digital advertising market is growing and how Google's share in this market, and subsequently their financial results, are influenced by investing in either three of the policy variables.

Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation.  Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function.  Repeat (A) & (B).

Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation.  Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function.  Repeat (A) & (B).

Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation.  Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function.  Repeat (A) & (B).

Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation.  Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function.  Repeat (A) & (B).

From the 1988 killian lecture youtube video For more detailed biography See Jay Forrester memorial webpage For concepts and applications see IM-185226

Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation.  Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function.  Repeat (A) & (B).

Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation.  Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function.  Repeat (A) & (B).

A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania.  Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

The System Dynamic Model represents the Covid19 cases in Brgy. Sicsican, Puerto Princesa City as of May 27,2022. 

Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation.  Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function.  Repeat (A) & (B).

Ciclo 2 extra work accidents rework