Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.
With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.
We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured in
Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure
With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.
Resources:
![Initial data from: Italian data [ link ], as of Mar 28 Incubation estimation [ link ] Model focuses on outbreak dynamics and control, this version ignores symptom onset to hospital admission and the rest of recovery dynamics.](https://insightmakercloud-files.storage.googleapis.com/04303c2a-2044-492c-9aa8-ecd83f6e769f/images/cover.jpg?X-Goog-Algorithm=GOOG4-RSA-SHA256&X-Goog-Credential=insightmakercloud-file-access%40insightmakercloud.iam.gserviceaccount.com%2F20250331%2Fauto%2Fstorage%2Fgoog4_request&X-Goog-Date=20250331T214356Z&X-Goog-Expires=3601&X-Goog-SignedHeaders=host&X-Goog-Signature=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)
