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 WIP Physiological circuits  insight  integrated with other articles on inflammation fibrosis and innate immunity

WIP Physiological circuits insight integrated with other articles on inflammation fibrosis and innate immunity

  INTRODUCTION
  

  COVID-19  

 Coronavirus which was named COVID-19 is a
respiratory disease which affects the lungs of the infected person and thus
making such people vulnerable to other diseases such as pneumonia. It was first
discovered in Wuhan China in December 2019 and since then has spread

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19

Coronavirus which was named COVID-19 is a respiratory disease which affects the lungs of the infected person and thus making such people vulnerable to other diseases such as pneumonia. It was first discovered in Wuhan China in December 2019 and since then has spread across the world affecting more than 40 million people from which over one million have died.

In the early discovery of the COVID-19, there were measures that were put in place with the help World Health Organization (WHO). They recommended a social distance of 1.5 meters to 2 meters to curb the spread since the scientist warned that COVID-19 can be carried in the droplets when someone breathes or cough. Another measure which was advised by WHO was wearing of mask, especially when people are in group. Wearing of mask would ensure that someone’s droplets do not leave their mouth or nose when they breathe or cough. It also help one from breathing in the virus which believed to be contagious and airborne.

The World Health Organization also advised on washing of the hand and avoiding frequent touching of the face. People mostly use their hand to touch surfaces which mad their hand the greatest harbor of the disease. Therefore, washing hands with soap will kill and wash away the virus from the hands. Avoiding touching of face also will prevent people from contracting the disease since the virus is believed to enter the body through openings such as eye, nose and mouth.

Another measure as a precaution from contracting the disease was to avoid hand shaking, hugging, kissing and any other thing which would bring people together. These were measures put to ensure that COVID-19 do not move from one person to another because of its airborne nature and the fact that it can be carried from the mouth or nose droplets.

Healthcare workers, in most of the countries, were provided with Personal Protective Equipment (PPEs) which helped them to protect themselves from contracting the virus. Healthcare workers were at the forefront in combating the disease since they were the people receiving the sick, including the ones with the virus. This exposed them to COVID-19 more than anyone hence more care was needed for them. Their PPEs comprised of white overall covering the whole body from head to toes. It also includes face mask and googles worn to prevent anything getting in their eyes. Their hands also were covered with gloves which were removed occasionally to avoid concentration of the virus on one glove.

COVID-19 affected many economies across the world as it greatly affected the human economic activities across the world. Due to the nature and how it spread, COVID-19 lead many countries to lockdown the country as we know it. Travelling was stopped as many countries feared the surge of the virus due to many people travelling form the countries which are already greatly affected. Another reason which travelling was hampered was due to the fact that the virus could spread among the travelers in an airplane. There were no proper measures to ensure social distance in the airplane and many people feared travelling from fear of contracting the disease.

This greatly affected the economy of many countries including great economies like USA. Tourism industry was the one affected the most as many country mostly depend on foreign travelers as their tourist. Many countries do not have proper domestic tourism structure and therefore depend on visitors who travels from foreign countries. Such countries have their economies greatly affected since the earnings from tourism either gone down or was not there at all.

Apart from locking down the country from foreigners, many major cities across the world were under lockdown. This means that even the citizens of the country were neither allowed in or out of the city. This restricted movement of people affecting greatly the human economic activities as many businesses were closed down especially transport businesses. The movement of goods from one places to another was affected making business difficult to carry out. Many people who dealt in perishable agricultural products count losses as their farm produced were destroyed because of lack of wider market. Some countries banned some businesses such as importing second hand clothes since it was believed that they could harbor the virus. Most of the meeting places such as sporting events and pubs were closed down affecting greatly the people who were involved in such businesses.

Across the world, schools were closed. Schools contain students in large numbers which could affect many students across the world. Learning was temporary stopped as different countries were finding ways of curbing the virus.

Scientist are busy like bees across the world to find the vaccine for the diseases that have ravage many countries and above all, they are trying to find the cure. Many countries have carried out their trial of vaccines with the hope to find an effective vaccine for the virus.

Meanwhile it is necessary to find ways by which the virus can be controlled so that it doesn’t spread to a point where it come out of control. Some of the measures put by the WHO has been highlighted above, but these measures need to be studied to ensure that measures which are more effective are affected at great heights. I therefore, have created a model in Insight Maker to check how these measures prove their effectiveness over time.

 STEM-SM combines a simple ecosystem model (modified version of VSEM; Hartig et al. 2019) with a soil moisture model (Guswa et al. (2002) leaky bucket model). Outputs from the soil moisture model influence ecosystem dynamics in three ways.   (1) The ratio of actual transpiration to maximum evapotran
STEM-SM combines a simple ecosystem model (modified version of VSEM; Hartig et al. 2019) with a soil moisture model (Guswa et al. (2002) leaky bucket model). Outputs from the soil moisture model influence ecosystem dynamics in three ways. 
(1) The ratio of actual transpiration to maximum evapotranspiration (T/ETmax) modifies gross primary productivity (GPP).
(2) Degree of saturation of the soil (Sd) modifies the rate of soil heterotrophic respiration.
(3) Water limitation of GPP (by T/ETmax) and of soil nutrient availability (approximated by Sd) combine with leaf area limitation (approximated by fraction of incident photosynthetically-active radiation that is absorbed) to modify the allocation of net primary productivity to aboveground and belowground parts of the vegetation.

Ecosystem dynamics in turn influence flows of water in to and out of the soil moisture stock. The size of the aboveground biomass stock determines fractional vegetation cover, which modifies interception, soil evaporation and transpiration by plants.

References:
Guswa, A.J., Celia, M.A., Rodriguez-Iturbe, I. (2002) Models of soil moisture dynamics in ecohydrology: a comparative study. Water Resources Research 38, 5-1 - 5-15.

Hartig, F., Minunno, F., and Paul, S. (2019). BayesianTools: General-Purpose MCMC and SMC Samplers and Tools for Bayesian Statistics. R package version 0.1.7. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=BayesianTools

112 4 days ago
There are about fifteen known archetypes with an interesting set of relationships among them.  Video    There is a new version of this model at   Frequently Recurring Structures
There are about fifteen known archetypes with an interesting set of relationships among them.

There is a new version of this model at

Frequently Recurring Structures

Simulating Hyperinflation for 3650 days.  If private bond holdings are going down and the government is running a big deficit then the central bank has to monetize bonds equal to the deficit plus the decrease in private bond holdings.  We don't show the details of the central bank buying bonds here,
Simulating Hyperinflation for 3650 days.

If private bond holdings are going down and the government is running a big deficit then the central bank has to monetize bonds equal to the deficit plus the decrease in private bond holdings.  We don't show the details of the central bank buying bonds here, just the net results.

See blog at http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com for more on hyperinflation, including a hyperinflation FAQ.