This model demonstrates the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. It shows how the government policy tries to reduce the spread of COVID-19 whilst also impacting the local economy.
Assumptions:
This model has four variables that influence the number of COVID-19 cases: infection rate, immunity loss rate, recovery rate and death rate.
In order to reduce the pandemic spread, in this model, assume the government released six policies when Burnie COVID-19 cases are equal or over 10 cases. Policies are vaccination promotion, travel restriction to Burnie, quarantine, social distance, lockdown and testing rate.
Government policies would reduce the pandemic. However, it decreases economic growth at the same time. In this model, only list three variable that influence local economic activities.
Travel restrictions and quarantine will reduce Burnie tourism and decrease the local economy. On the other hand, quarantine, social distance, lockdown allow people to stay at home, increasing E-commerce business.
As a result, policies that cause fewer COVID-19 cases also cause more considerable negative damage to the economy.
Interesting insights:
One of the interesting findings is that the government policy would reduce the COVID-19 spread significantly if I adjust the total government policies are over 20% (vaccine promotion, travel restriction, quarantine, social distance, lockdown), 3560 people will die, then no more people get COVID-19.
However, if I change the total government policy to less than 5%, the whole Burnie people will die according to the model. Therefore, we need to follow the polices, which saves our lives.
BMA708 assignment3 - Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie
Pada Tugas 3 mata kuliah Pemodelan Transportasi Laut, ditugaskan untuk membuat pemodelan penyebaran COVID-19 di negara yang dipilih, dan pada simulasi ini merupakan negara Indonesia
Dosen Pengampu : Dr.-Ing Ir Setyo Nugroho
Simulasi Pemodelan Penyebaran COVID-19 di Indonesia
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy, though, of higher detected cases is negative.
This Model was developed from the SEIR model (Susceptible, Enposed, Infected, Recovered). It was designed to explore relationships between the government policies regarding the COVID-19 and its impact upon the economy as well as well-being of residents.
Assumptions:
Government policies will be triggered when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less;
Government Policies affect the economy and the COV-19 infection negatively at the same time;
Government Policies can be divided as 4 categories, which are Social Distancing, Business Restrictions, Lock Down, Travel Ban, and Hygiene Level, and they represented strength of different aspects;
Parameters:
Policies like Social Distancing, Business Restrictions, Lock Down, Travel Ban all have different weights and caps, and they add up to 1 in total;
There are 4 cases on March 9th;
Ro= 5.7 Ro is the reproduction number, here it means one person with COVID-19 can potentially transmit the coronavirus to 5 to 6 people;
Interesting Insights:
Economy will grow at the beginning few weeks then becoming stagnant for a very long time;
Exposed people are significant, which requires early policies intervention such as social distancing.
The model is built to demonstrates how Burnie Tasmania can deal with a new COVID-19 outbreaks, taking government policies and economic effects into account.
The susceptible people are the local Burnie residents. If residents were infected, they would either recovered or dead. However, even they do recover, there is a chance that they will get infected again if immunity loss occurs.
From the simulation result we can see that with the implementation of local government policies including travel ban and social distancing, the number of infected people will decrease. The number of recovered people will increase in the first 5 weeks but then experience a decrease.
In addition, with the implementation of local government policy, the economic environment in Burnie will be relatively stable when the number of COVID-19 cases is stable.
How Burnie, Tasmania can deal with a new outbreak of COVID-19
The complex
model reflects the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. The model explains
how the COVID-19 outbreak will influence the government policies and economic
impacts. The infected population will be based on how many susceptible, infected,
and recovered individuals in Burnie. It influences the probability of infected
population meeting with susceptible individuals.
The fatality
rate will be influenced by the elderly population and pre-existing medical
conditions. Even though individuals can recover from COVID-19 disease, some of
them will have immunity loss and become part of the susceptible individuals, or
they will be diagnosed with long term illnesses (mental and physical). Thus, these
variables influence the number of confirmed cases in Burnie and the implementation
of government policies.
The government
policies depend on the confirmed COVID-19 cases. The government policies
include business restrictions, lock down, vaccination and testing rate. These variables
have negative impacts on the infection of COVID-19 disease. However, these policies
have some negative effects on commercial industry and positive effects on e-commerce
and medical industry. These businesses growth rate can influence the economic
growth of Burnie with the economic
Most of the
variables are adjustable with the slider provided below. They can be adjusted from
0 to 1, which illustrates the percentages associated with the specific variables.
They can also be adjusted to three decimal points, i.e., from 0.1 to 0.001.
Assumptions
- The maximum
population of Burnie is 20000. - The maximum
number of infected individuals is 100. - Government
policies are triggered when the COVID-19 cases reach 10 or above. - The government
policies include business restrictions, lock down, vaccination and testing
rates only. Other policies are not being considered under this model. - The vaccination
policy implemented by the government is compulsory. - The testing
rate is set by the government. The slider should not be changed unless the testing
rate is adjusted by the government. - The
fatality rate is influenced by the elderly population and pre-existing medical
conditions only. Other factors are not being considered under this model. - People who
recovered from COVID-19 disease will definitely suffer form immunity loss or any
other long term illnesses. - Long term
illnesses include mental illnesses and physical illnesses only. Other illnesses
are not being considered under this model. - Economic activities
are provided with an assumption value of 1000. - The higher
the number of COVID-19 cases, the more negative impact they have on the economy
of Burnie.
Interesting Insights
A higher recovery rate can decrease the number of COVID-19 cases as well as the
probability of infected population meeting with susceptible persons, but it takes
longer for the economy to recover compared to a lower recovery rate. A higher
recovery rate can generate a larger number of people diagnosed with long term
illnesses.
Testing rate
triggers multiple variables, such as government policies, positive cases, susceptible
and infected individuals. A lower testing rate can decrease the COVID-19 confirmed
cases, but it can increase the number of susceptible people. And a higher
testing rate can trigger the implementation of government policies, thus
decreasing the infection rate. As the testing rate has a strong correlation
with the government policies, it can also influence the economy of Burnie.
This model aims to show that how the Tasmania government's COVID-19 policy can address the spread of the pandemic and in what way these policies can damage the economy.
Assumption:
Variables such as infection rate, death rate and the recovery rate are influenced by the actual situation.
The government will implement stricter travel bans and social distant policies as there are more cases.
Government policies reduce infection and limit economic growth at the same time.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.
Interesting insights:
A higher testing rate will make the infection increase and the infection rate will slightly increase as well.
Government policies are effective to lower the infection, however, they will damage the local economy. While the higher number of COVID-19 cases also influences economic activities.
