A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.
Clone of Burnie COVID-19 outbreak demo model version 2
This Model was developed from the SEIR model (Susceptible, Enposed, Infected, Recovered). It was designed to explore relationships between the government policies regarding the COVID-19 and its impact upon the economy as well as well-being of residents.
Assumptions:
Government policies will be triggered when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less;
Government Policies affect the economy and the COV-19 infection negatively at the same time;
Government Policies can be divided as 4 categories, which are Social Distancing, Business Restrictions, Lock Down, Travel Ban, and Hygiene Level, and they represented strength of different aspects;
Parameters:
Policies like Social Distancing, Business Restrictions, Lock Down, Travel Ban all have different weights and caps, and they add up to 1 in total;
There are 4 cases on March 9th;
Ro= 5.7 Ro is the reproduction number, here it means one person with COVID-19 can potentially transmit the coronavirus to 5 to 6 people;
Interesting Insights:
Economy will grow at the beginning few weeks then becoming stagnant for a very long time;
Exposed people are significant, which requires early policies intervention such as social distancing.
This model demonstrates the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. It shows how the government policy tries to reduce the spread of COVID-19 whilst also impacting the local economy.
Assumptions:
This model has four variables that influence the number of COVID-19 cases: infection rate, immunity loss rate, recovery rate and death rate.
In order to reduce the pandemic spread, in this model, assume the government released six policies when Burnie COVID-19 cases are equal or over 10 cases. Policies are vaccination promotion, travel restriction to Burnie, quarantine, social distance, lockdown and testing rate.
Government policies would reduce the pandemic. However, it decreases economic growth at the same time. In this model, only list three variable that influence local economic activities.
Travel restrictions and quarantine will reduce Burnie tourism and decrease the local economy. On the other hand, quarantine, social distance, lockdown allow people to stay at home, increasing E-commerce business.
As a result, policies that cause fewer COVID-19 cases also cause more considerable negative damage to the economy.
Interesting insights:
One of the interesting findings is that the government policy would reduce the COVID-19 spread significantly if I adjust the total government policies are over 20% (vaccine promotion, travel restriction, quarantine, social distance, lockdown), 3560 people will die, then no more people get COVID-19.
However, if I change the total government policy to less than 5%, the whole Burnie people will die according to the model. Therefore, we need to follow the polices, which saves our lives.
BMA708 assignment3 - Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie
Model based on several references: 1. https://insightmaker.com/insight/4iVOp2JcrDSTBvqjER7pxM/TA-Pemsim-SEIR-Covid-19-Model 2. https://insightmaker.com/insight/5GiU0WZLpKCLGOoe6xeIhT/SEIR-COVID-19-New-Kl-1 3. https://insightmaker.com/insight/DaOeZ0N9RcgU1Q87ofIj8/COVID-19-SEIR-Model-for-Indonesia
This is a dynamic model that shows the correlation between the
health-related policies implemented by the Government in response to COVID-19 outbreak
in Burnie, Tasmania, and the policies’ impact on the Economic activity of the
area.
ASSUMPTIONS
The increase in the number of COVID-19 cases is directly
proportional to the increase in the Government policies in the infected region.
The Government policies negatively impact the economy of Burnie, Tasmania.
INTERESTING INSIGHTS
1. When the borders are closed by the government, the economy
is severely affected by the decrease of revenue generated by the Civil aviation/Migration
rate. As the number of COVID-19 cases increase, the number of people allowed to
enter Australian borders will also decrease by the government.
2. The Economic activity sharply increases and stays in uniformity.
3. The death rate drastically decreased as we increased test rate by 90%.
COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania (Rajaa Sajjad, 538837)
SIR: Susceptible to infection - Infected - Recovery, Government responses and Economic impacts
Government policy is activated when there are 10 or fewer reported cases of COVID-19. The more people tested, the fewer people became infected. So the government's policy is to reduce infections by increasing the number of people tested and starting early. At the same time, it has slowed the economic growth (which, according to the model, will stop for next 52 weeks).
Model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania (Yue Xiang 512994)
Using the reading assignment from El-Taliawi and Hartley on using a SSM for COVID-19 follow the steps for SSM to include:
1) Describe the Problem (unstructured).
2) Develop a Root Definition for the COVID-19 problem space by identifying the three elements: what, how, why. A System to do X, by (means of) Y, in order to achieve Z.
X - What the system does
Y - How it does it
Z - Why is it being done
(see slide 33 in the Systems Thinking Workshop reading)
3) Identify the Perspectives (CATWOE)
4) Develop a basic Systemigram / Rich Picture to tell the story.
Submit your assignment as a Word document or PDF that addresses #1-4. You can use InsightMaker to create your systemigram or use the Systemitool which you can access at SERC hereLinks to an external site..
If you use InsightMaker, try presenting your results as a Story using the Storytelling capabilityLinks to an external site..
You will have TWO WEEKS to complete this assignment (due on March 7th).
This model is comparing healthy and sick residents in Burnie, Tasmania after the Covid-19 Outbreak in 2020. It will also show how the Burnie economy is effected by the disease, how the Government Health Policies are implemented and how they are enforced.
This model is based on the SIR, Susceptible, Infection, Recovery (or
Removed) These are the three possible states related to the members of
the Burnie population when a contagious decease spreads.
The Government/Government Health Policy, played a big part in the successful decrease in Covid-19 infections. The Government enforced the following. - No travel (interstate or international) - Isolation within the residents homes - Social distancing by 1.5m - Quarantine - Non essential companies to be temporarily closed - Limitations on public gatherings - And limits on time and kilometers aloud to travel from ones home within a local community
This resulted in lower reported infection rates of Covid-19 and higher recovery rates. In my opinion: When the first case was reported the Government could have been even faster to enforce these rules to decrease the fatality rates further for the Burnie, population.
Assumption: Government policies were only triggered when 10 cases were recorded. Also, more cases that had been recorded effected the economic growth during this time.
Interesting Findings: In the simulation it shows as the death rates increases towards the end of the week, the rate of testing goes down. You would think that the government would have enforced a higher testing rate over the duration of this time to decrease the number of infections, exposed which would increase the recovery rates faster and more efficiently.
Figures have been determined by the population of Burnie being 19,380 at the time of assignment.
Complex Systems How Burnie Tasmania dealt with Covid-19 Outbreak BMA708
This model is cloned thru an Agent-Based Modeling Simulation of "Covid-19 (ABM)_VHK" Model by Venkata Habiram Koppaka last April 2020 for presenting the Pandemic COVID-19 Disease. This ABM Simulation aims to represent the trend of COVID-19 infection and death rate (dynamics) at Puerto Princesa City, PALAWAN using the June 3, 2021 data of the CESU-PPC.
COVID-19 ABM (SIR) Model of Puerto Princesa City, PALAWAN
This model presents the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie and how the government reacts to it. Moreover, the model also illustrates how the economy in Burnie is impacted by the pandemic. The possible stages of residents when the infectious disease spreads in Burnie can be concluded as Susceptible, Infection and Recovery, which are used as the main data in this model. However, the improvement of decreasing of reported infection rates of this infectious disease and increasing of recovery rates are contributed by the implementation of the Government Health Policy.
Assumption
The decrease of both infection rate and economic growth are all influenced by the Government Health Policy simultaneously. The Government Health Policy is only triggered when there are 10 cases reported. However, the increase in reporting COVID-19 cases affects economic growth negatively.
Interesting Insights:
There are two interesting insights that have been revealed from the simulation. First, the death rate continuously increased even though the infection rate goes down. However, the increase in testing rates contributed to the stability of the death rate towards the end of the week. Moreover, higher testing rates also trigger faster government intervention, which can reduce infectious cases. Second, as the Government Health Policy limited the chance of going out and shopping, the economic growth is negative due to the higher cases.
This model aims to show that how the Tasmania government's COVID-19 policy can address the spread of the pandemic and in what way these policies can damage the economy.
Assumption:
Variables such as infection rate, death rate and the recovery rate are influenced by the actual situation.
The government will implement stricter travel bans and social distant policies as there are more cases.
Government policies reduce infection and limit economic growth at the same time.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.
Interesting insights:
A higher testing rate will make the infection increase and the infection rate will slightly increase as well.
Government policies are effective to lower the infection, however, they will damage the local economy. While the higher number of COVID-19 cases also influences economic activities.
