If no attempt is made to eradicate SARS-CoV-2 it will eventually
become endemic, ineradicable, at a high never-ending cost to world in terms of economic
growth, human health and lives. The current strategy adopted by most
governments is to impose restrictive
measures when the virus threatens to overwhelm hospital services and to relax these
restrictions as this danger recedes. This is short-sighted. It cannot eliminate
the highly infectious delta variant, which has an estimated R0-value of between
6 & 9. Periodic lockdowns will be hard to avoid in the future.
However, eradication is possible, herd immunity can be achieved
quickly worldwide, reducing the R0 permanently to below 1, which will lead to
the disappearance of the virus. Critical in achieving this is Ivermectin, a medicine
that is cheap, readily available and can
be manufactured by most countries. A recent meta study has shown that Ivermectin,
prophylactically employed, can prevent infection with the virus by 86 % on average – very similar to the efficacy
of vaccines. Eradication will require employment of all the instruments shown
in the graph: future generations do not have to live with this plague.
This is a dynamic model that shows the correlation between the
health-related policies implemented by the Government in response to COVID-19 outbreak
in Burnie, Tasmania, and the policies’ impact on the Economic activity of the
area.
ASSUMPTIONS
The increase in the number of COVID-19 cases is directly
proportional to the increase in the Government policies in the infected region.
The Government policies negatively impact the economy of Burnie, Tasmania.
INTERESTING INSIGHTS
1. When the borders are closed by the government, the economy
is severely affected by the decrease of revenue generated by the Civil aviation/Migration
rate. As the number of COVID-19 cases increase, the number of people allowed to
enter Australian borders will also decrease by the government.
2. The Economic activity sharply increases and stays in uniformity.
3. The death rate drastically decreased as we increased test rate by 90%.
COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania (Rajaa Sajjad, 538837)
This model demonstrates the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. It shows how the government policy tries to reduce the spread of COVID-19 whilst also impacting the local economy.
Assumptions:
This model has four variables that influence the number of COVID-19 cases: infection rate, immunity loss rate, recovery rate and death rate.
In order to reduce the pandemic spread, in this model, assume the government released six policies when Burnie COVID-19 cases are equal or over 10 cases. Policies are vaccination promotion, travel restriction to Burnie, quarantine, social distance, lockdown and testing rate.
Government policies would reduce the pandemic. However, it decreases economic growth at the same time. In this model, only list three variable that influence local economic activities.
Travel restrictions and quarantine will reduce Burnie tourism and decrease the local economy. On the other hand, quarantine, social distance, lockdown allow people to stay at home, increasing E-commerce business.
As a result, policies that cause fewer COVID-19 cases also cause more considerable negative damage to the economy.
Interesting insights:
One of the interesting findings is that the government policy would reduce the COVID-19 spread significantly if I adjust the total government policies are over 20% (vaccine promotion, travel restriction, quarantine, social distance, lockdown), 3560 people will die, then no more people get COVID-19.
However, if I change the total government policy to less than 5%, the whole Burnie people will die according to the model. Therefore, we need to follow the polices, which saves our lives.
BMA708 assignment3 - Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie
