This is a dynamic model that shows the correlation between the
health-related policies implemented by the Government in response to COVID-19 outbreak
in Burnie, Tasmania, and the policies’ impact on the Economic activity of the
area.
ASSUMPTIONS
The increase in the number of COVID-19 cases is directly
proportional to the increase in the Government policies in the infected region.
The Government policies negatively impact the economy of Burnie, Tasmania.
INTERESTING INSIGHTS
1. When the borders are closed by the government, the economy
is severely affected by the decrease of revenue generated by the Civil aviation/Migration
rate. As the number of COVID-19 cases increase, the number of people allowed to
enter Australian borders will also decrease by the government.
2. The Economic activity sharply increases and stays in uniformity.
3. The death rate drastically decreased as we increased test rate by 90%.
COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania (Rajaa Sajjad, 538837)
This model demonstrates the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. It shows how the government policy tries to reduce the spread of COVID-19 whilst also impacting the local economy.
Assumptions:
This model has four variables that influence the number of COVID-19 cases: infection rate, immunity loss rate, recovery rate and death rate.
In order to reduce the pandemic spread, in this model, assume the government released six policies when Burnie COVID-19 cases are equal or over 10 cases. Policies are vaccination promotion, travel restriction to Burnie, quarantine, social distance, lockdown and testing rate.
Government policies would reduce the pandemic. However, it decreases economic growth at the same time. In this model, only list three variable that influence local economic activities.
Travel restrictions and quarantine will reduce Burnie tourism and decrease the local economy. On the other hand, quarantine, social distance, lockdown allow people to stay at home, increasing E-commerce business.
As a result, policies that cause fewer COVID-19 cases also cause more considerable negative damage to the economy.
Interesting insights:
One of the interesting findings is that the government policy would reduce the COVID-19 spread significantly if I adjust the total government policies are over 20% (vaccine promotion, travel restriction, quarantine, social distance, lockdown), 3560 people will die, then no more people get COVID-19.
However, if I change the total government policy to less than 5%, the whole Burnie people will die according to the model. Therefore, we need to follow the polices, which saves our lives.
BMA708 assignment3 - Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie
This is a Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania which shows the government actions in response to the pandemic COVID-19 and its affects on the Economy. The government health policy changes depending on the reported cases, which is a dependent upon the testing rate.
Assumptions
Lockdown and travel ban were the main factor in government policy. It negatively impacts on the Economic growth as individuals are not going out which is directly affects the business around the world, in this insight 'Burnie'. This reduces the economic growth and the factors positively effecting economic growth such as Tourism.
Government policies has a negative impact on Exposer of individuals. Moreover, it also has a negative impact on chances of infection when exposed as well as other general infection rate.
Interesting Insight
There is a significant impact of test rating on COVID-19 outbreak. Higher rates increases the government involvement, which decreases cases as well as the total death.
In contrast, lower testing rates increase the death rate and cases.
Tourism which plays a avital role in Tasmanian Economy greatly affects the Economic Growth. The decline of Tourism in parts of Tasmania such as Burnie, would directly decrease the economy of Tasmania.
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy, though, of higher detected cases is negative.
This Model was developed from the SEIR model (Susceptible, Enposed, Infected, Recovered). It was designed to explore relationships between the government policies regarding the COVID-19 and its impact upon the economy as well as well-being of residents.
Assumptions:
Government policies will be triggered when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less;
Government Policies affect the economy and the COV-19 infection negatively at the same time;
Government Policies can be divided as 4 categories, which are Social Distancing, Business Restrictions, Lock Down, Travel Ban, and Hygiene Level, and they represented strength of different aspects;
Parameters:
Policies like Social Distancing, Business Restrictions, Lock Down, Travel Ban all have different weights and caps, and they add up to 1 in total;
There are 4 cases on March 9th;
Ro= 5.7 Ro is the reproduction number, here it means one person with COVID-19 can potentially transmit the coronavirus to 5 to 6 people;
Interesting Insights:
Economy will grow at the beginning few weeks then becoming stagnant for a very long time;
Exposed people are significant, which requires early policies intervention such as social distancing.
The complex
model reflects the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. The model explains
how the COVID-19 outbreak will influence the government policies and economic
impacts. The infected population will be based on how many susceptible, infected,
and recovered individuals in Burnie. It influences the probability of infected
population meeting with susceptible individuals.
The fatality
rate will be influenced by the elderly population and pre-existing medical
conditions. Even though individuals can recover from COVID-19 disease, some of
them will have immunity loss and become part of the susceptible individuals, or
they will be diagnosed with long term illnesses (mental and physical). Thus, these
variables influence the number of confirmed cases in Burnie and the implementation
of government policies.
The government
policies depend on the confirmed COVID-19 cases. The government policies
include business restrictions, lock down, vaccination and testing rate. These variables
have negative impacts on the infection of COVID-19 disease. However, these policies
have some negative effects on commercial industry and positive effects on e-commerce
and medical industry. These businesses growth rate can influence the economic
growth of Burnie with the economic
Most of the
variables are adjustable with the slider provided below. They can be adjusted from
0 to 1, which illustrates the percentages associated with the specific variables.
They can also be adjusted to three decimal points, i.e., from 0.1 to 0.001.
Assumptions
- The maximum
population of Burnie is 20000. - The maximum
number of infected individuals is 100. - Government
policies are triggered when the COVID-19 cases reach 10 or above. - The government
policies include business restrictions, lock down, vaccination and testing
rates only. Other policies are not being considered under this model. - The vaccination
policy implemented by the government is compulsory. - The testing
rate is set by the government. The slider should not be changed unless the testing
rate is adjusted by the government. - The
fatality rate is influenced by the elderly population and pre-existing medical
conditions only. Other factors are not being considered under this model. - People who
recovered from COVID-19 disease will definitely suffer form immunity loss or any
other long term illnesses. - Long term
illnesses include mental illnesses and physical illnesses only. Other illnesses
are not being considered under this model. - Economic activities
are provided with an assumption value of 1000. - The higher
the number of COVID-19 cases, the more negative impact they have on the economy
of Burnie.
Interesting Insights
A higher recovery rate can decrease the number of COVID-19 cases as well as the
probability of infected population meeting with susceptible persons, but it takes
longer for the economy to recover compared to a lower recovery rate. A higher
recovery rate can generate a larger number of people diagnosed with long term
illnesses.
Testing rate
triggers multiple variables, such as government policies, positive cases, susceptible
and infected individuals. A lower testing rate can decrease the COVID-19 confirmed
cases, but it can increase the number of susceptible people. And a higher
testing rate can trigger the implementation of government policies, thus
decreasing the infection rate. As the testing rate has a strong correlation
with the government policies, it can also influence the economy of Burnie.
