This is a dynamic model that shows the correlation between the
health-related policies implemented by the Government in response to COVID-19 outbreak
in Burnie, Tasmania, and the policies’ impact on the Economic activity of the
area.
ASSUMPTIONS
The increase in the number of COVID-19 cases is directly
proportional to the increase in the Government policies in the infected region.
The Government policies negatively impact the economy of Burnie, Tasmania.
INTERESTING INSIGHTS
1. When the borders are closed by the government, the economy
is severely affected by the decrease of revenue generated by the Civil aviation/Migration
rate. As the number of COVID-19 cases increase, the number of people allowed to
enter Australian borders will also decrease by the government.
2. The Economic activity sharply increases and stays in uniformity.
3. The death rate drastically decreased as we increased test rate by 90%.
COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania (Rajaa Sajjad, 538837)
This model is comparing healthy and sick residents in Burnie, Tasmania after the Covid-19 Outbreak in 2020. It will also show how the Burnie economy is effected by the disease, how the Government Health Policies are implemented and how they are enforced.
This model is based on the SIR, Susceptible, Infection, Recovery (or
Removed) These are the three possible states related to the members of
the Burnie population when a contagious decease spreads.
The Government/Government Health Policy, played a big part in the successful decrease in Covid-19 infections. The Government enforced the following. - No travel (interstate or international) - Isolation within the residents homes - Social distancing by 1.5m - Quarantine - Non essential companies to be temporarily closed - Limitations on public gatherings - And limits on time and kilometers aloud to travel from ones home within a local community
This resulted in lower reported infection rates of Covid-19 and higher recovery rates. In my opinion: When the first case was reported the Government could have been even faster to enforce these rules to decrease the fatality rates further for the Burnie, population.
Assumption: Government policies were only triggered when 10 cases were recorded. Also, more cases that had been recorded effected the economic growth during this time.
Interesting Findings: In the simulation it shows as the death rates increases towards the end of the week, the rate of testing goes down. You would think that the government would have enforced a higher testing rate over the duration of this time to decrease the number of infections, exposed which would increase the recovery rates faster and more efficiently.
Figures have been determined by the population of Burnie being 19,380 at the time of assignment.
Complex Systems How Burnie Tasmania dealt with Covid-19 Outbreak BMA708
SIR: Susceptible to infection - Infected - Recovery, Government responses and Economic impacts
Government policy is activated when there are 10 or fewer reported cases of COVID-19. The more people tested, the fewer people became infected. So the government's policy is to reduce infections by increasing the number of people tested and starting early. At the same time, it has slowed the economic growth (which, according to the model, will stop for next 52 weeks).
Model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania (Yue Xiang 512994)
From Yuan Tian's 2024 paper Early
COVID-19 Pandemic Preparedness: Informing Public Health Interventions and
Hospital Capacity Planning Through Participatory Hybrid Simulation Modeling and PhD Dissertation 2025 USask Fig 5.1 p96
This model is to show the status of numbers of infected people, recovered people and deaths during COVID-19 in Burnie Australia. It also shows impact on the growth of economy.
Variables
The infection rate and the percentage of people washing their hands are influencing the infected number of people. Also, there are death rate and recovery rate and immunity lost rate determining the numbers of deaths, recovered and infected-again people.
for the economy growth, there are several factors, including unemployment rate, infection rate, economic growth rate and government health policy.
Perspective
After some time, people will recovered, also the economic activities.
This model demonstrates the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. It shows how the government policy tries to reduce the spread of COVID-19 whilst also impacting the local economy.
Assumptions:
This model has four variables that influence the number of COVID-19 cases: infection rate, immunity loss rate, recovery rate and death rate.
In order to reduce the pandemic spread, in this model, assume the government released six policies when Burnie COVID-19 cases are equal or over 10 cases. Policies are vaccination promotion, travel restriction to Burnie, quarantine, social distance, lockdown and testing rate.
Government policies would reduce the pandemic. However, it decreases economic growth at the same time. In this model, only list three variable that influence local economic activities.
Travel restrictions and quarantine will reduce Burnie tourism and decrease the local economy. On the other hand, quarantine, social distance, lockdown allow people to stay at home, increasing E-commerce business.
As a result, policies that cause fewer COVID-19 cases also cause more considerable negative damage to the economy.
Interesting insights:
One of the interesting findings is that the government policy would reduce the COVID-19 spread significantly if I adjust the total government policies are over 20% (vaccine promotion, travel restriction, quarantine, social distance, lockdown), 3560 people will die, then no more people get COVID-19.
However, if I change the total government policy to less than 5%, the whole Burnie people will die according to the model. Therefore, we need to follow the polices, which saves our lives.
BMA708 assignment3 - Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie
This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.
It is assumed that the Government intervention is triggered when the COVID-19 case is equal to or more than 10.
Government intervention - lock down the state, suppress the development of COVID-19 effectively. It is related to most of people stay at home to reduce the exposure in public area.
On the other hand, it also bring the economy of Burnie in the recession, as no tourists, no dining out activities and decrease in money spending in the city.
Burnie COVID-19 outbreaks and economic impacts_Pui Chu Daisy Cheung 524767
The model here shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie Tasmania, which has impacted in the local economy. the relationship between COVID-19 and economic situation has been shown in the graph. Based on the susceptible analysis, people who usual go out are might have chance to meet susceptible people and have a high rate to be infected. The period of spreading can be controlled by keeping social distance and Government lockdown policy.
Susceptible can be exposed by go out. resident has a possibility to infect and be infected by others. people who might be die due to the lack of immunity. and others would recover and get the immune.
Beside, the economy situation is proportionate to the recovery rate. If there are more recovery rate from the pandemic, the employment rate will be increased and the economy situation will recover as well.
COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, TAS. BMA708 Assignment 3
