This is a sample model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania showing how the Government responds by implementing relevant health policy and the effects on the Economy of the area.
Assumptions
Economic growth rate is dependent on the proportion of the population who can be exposed. Number of COVID cases negatively impacts the economy. Govt policy is triggered when COVID-19 cases are 10 or more.
Interesting Insights
1) Exposure to the disease has a positive relationship with economic growth rate because the more people goes out, more business activity takes place, resulting in Economic Growth.
Using the reading assignment from El-Taliawi and Hartley on using a SSM for COVID-19 follow the steps for SSM to include:
1) Describe the Problem (unstructured).
2) Develop a Root Definition for the COVID-19 problem space by identifying the three elements: what, how, why. A System to do X, by (means of) Y, in order to achieve Z.
X - What the system does
Y - How it does it
Z - Why is it being done
(see slide 33 in the Systems Thinking Workshop reading)
3) Identify the Perspectives (CATWOE)
4) Develop a basic Systemigram / Rich Picture to tell the story.
Submit your assignment as a Word document or PDF that addresses #1-4. You can use InsightMaker to create your systemigram or use the Systemitool which you can access at SERC hereLinks to an external site..
If you use InsightMaker, try presenting your results as a Story using the Storytelling capabilityLinks to an external site..
You will have TWO WEEKS to complete this assignment (due on March 7th).
This Model was first developed from the SIR model (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered). It was designed to explore relationship between the government policies regarding the COVID-19 and its influences on the economy as well as well-being of local residents.
Assumptions:
Government policies will be triggered when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less;
Government policies reduces the infection and economic growth at the same time.
Interesting Insights:
In the first two weeks, the infected people showed an exponential growth, in another word, that’s the most important period to control the number of people who got affected.
Clone of Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania
This model is to show the status of numbers of infected people, recovered people and deaths during COVID-19 in Burnie Australia. It also shows impact on the growth of economy.
Variables
The infection rate and the percentage of people washing their hands are influencing the infected number of people. Also, there are death rate and recovery rate and immunity lost rate determining the numbers of deaths, recovered and infected-again people.
for the economy growth, there are several factors, including unemployment rate, infection rate, economic growth rate and government health policy.
Perspective
After some time, people will recovered, also the economic activities.
This model aims to show that how the Tasmania government's COVID-19 policy can address the spread of the pandemic and in what way these policies can damage the economy.
Assumption:
Variables such as infection rate, death rate and the recovery rate are influenced by the actual situation.
The government will implement stricter travel bans and social distant policies as there are more cases.
Government policies reduce infection and limit economic growth at the same time.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.
Interesting insights:
A higher testing rate will make the infection increase and the infection rate will slightly increase as well.
Government policies are effective to lower the infection, however, they will damage the local economy. While the higher number of COVID-19 cases also influences economic activities.
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy, though, of higher detected cases is negative.
