ABOUT THE MODEL

This is a dynamic model that shows the correlation between the health-related policies implemented by the Government in response to COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania, and the policies’ impact on the Economic activity of the area.

 ASSUMPTIONS

The increase in the number of COVID-19 cases is directly proportional to the increase in the Government policies in the infected region. The Government policies negatively impact the economy of Burnie, Tasmania.

INTERESTING INSIGHTS

1. When the borders are closed by the government, the economy is severely affected by the decrease of revenue generated by the Civil aviation/Migration rate. As the number of COVID-19 cases increase, the number of people allowed to enter Australian borders will also decrease by the government. 

2. The Economic activity sharply increases and stays in uniformity. 

3. The death rate drastically decreased as we increased test rate by 90%.

Eastern oyster growth model calibrated for Long Island Sound
Developed and implemented by Joao G. Ferreira and Camille Saurel; growth data from Eva Galimany, Gary Wickfors, and Julie Rose; driver data from Julie Rose and Suzanne Bricker; Culture practice from the REServ team and Tessa Getchis. This model is a workbench for combining ecological and economic components for REServ. Economic component added by Trina Wellman.

This is a one box model for an idealized farm with one million oysters seeded (one hectare @ a stocking density of 100 oysters per square meter)

1. Run WinShell individual growth model for one year with Long Island Sound growth drivers;

2. Determine the scope for growth (in dry tissue weight per day) for oysters centered on the five weight classes)
 
3. Apply a classic population dynamics equation:

dn(s,t)/dt = -d[n(s,t)g(s,t)]/ds - u(s)n(s,t)

s: Weight (g)
t: Time
n: Number of individuals of weight s
g: Scope for growth (g day-1)
u: Mortality rate (day-1)

4. Set mortality at 30% per year, slider allows scenarios from 30% to 80% per year

5. Determine harvestable biomass, i.e. weight class 5, 40-50 g (roughly three inches length)

WIP Ideas from Science Special Issue May 2014

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Overview of Part E Ch 20 to 24 of Mitchell Wray and Watts Textbook see IM-164967 for book overview

This Model was developed from the SEIR model (Susceptible, Enposed, Infected, Recovered). It was designed to explore relationships between the government policies regarding the COVID-19 and its impact upon the economy as well as well-being of residents. 

Assumptions:

Government policies will be triggered when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less;

Government Policies affect the economy and the COV-19 infection negatively at the same time;

Government Policies can be divided as 4 categories, which are Social Distancing, Business Restrictions, Lock Down, Travel Ban, and Hygiene Level, and they represented strength of different aspects;

 

Parameters:

Policies like Social Distancing, Business Restrictions, Lock Down, Travel Ban all have different weights and caps, and they add up to 1 in total;

 

There are 4 cases on March 9th; 

Ro= 5.7  Ro is the reproduction number, here it means one person with COVID-19 can potentially transmit the coronavirus to 5 to 6 people;

Interesting Insights:

Economy will grow at the beginning few weeks then becoming stagnant for a very long time;

Exposed people are significant, which requires early policies intervention such as social distancing.

Based on 2023 framework from Australian Treasury mapped into the Salutogenesis framework via social wellbeing

WIP SD REpresentation of Steve Keen's BOMD Minsky model (described in Fig.5 of his patreon Jan2021 Draft New Economics Manifesto) to hope to make the causal structure clearer

WIP of Rammelt's 2019 System Dynamics Review Article which has STELLA and Minsky software versions as supplements. Compare with the older IM-2011 version

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Brief Summary of Albert O Hirschman's Book with 2026 update

This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.