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08.01.2025 full model

17 11 months ago

WIP Elements from macroeconomics, neoliberalism and commercial determinants of health frameworks to provide a background to the effects of the universal basic income on health and wellbeing for the first 1000 days. UBI diagram modified from Johnson2021 article Expanded in Insight 2

Employment and Welfare Interventions Effect on the first 1000 days 1

Geoff McDonnell

The recent moratorium on deep-sea drilling will reduce the supply of oil. But the world-wide trend is an ever increasing demand for it. This simple CLD tries to illustrate the dampening effect on demand and on economic activity of diminishing oil supplies and of rising prices: oil prices affect virtually all products and especially agricultural production. As it becomes more and more difficult to extract oil, prices must rise. At the moment the global recession counteracts this effect, but the recession will not last forever. Is it too early to speak of Peak Oil?

Economy and Oil

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

3

Summary of Ch1 of Mitchell Wray and Watts Textbook see IM-164967 for overview

Macroeconomics Introduction

Geoff McDonnell

56

Taken from Saeed, Khalid. ‘Limits to Growth Concepts in Classical Economics’. In Feedback Economics: Economic Modeling with System Dynamics, edited by Robert Y. Cavana, Brian C. Dangerfield, Oleg V. Pavlov, Michael J. Radzicki, and I. David Wheat, 217–46. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-67190-7_9.

Note that I haven't been able to reproduce the reported results!

Marxian economic growth

filipesm

Butterfly Effect
Sensitivity To Initial Conditions
(sensitive dependence on initial conditions)
Navier Stokes Equations
Lorenz Attractor
Chaos Theory, Disorder and Entropy

Although the butterfly effect may appear to be an esoteric and unlikely behavior, it is exhibited by very simple systems: for example, a ball placed at the crest of a hill may roll into any of several valleys depending on, among other things, slight differences in initial position. Similarly the direction a pencil falls when held on its tip, or an universe during its initial stages.

These attractors apply to social systems and economics showing jumps between potential wells, and showing the strategic scaling behavior of rotating and cyclic systems whether they be social, economic, or complex spin or rotation of planets affecting weather and climate or spin of galaxies or elementary particles, or even a rock on the end of a piece of string.

What Playing with numbers is all about :)

If M is the state space for the map , then displays sensitive dependence to initial conditions if for any x in M and any δ > 0, there are y in M, with such that

Clone of THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT

Ana Cristina Beja

MONEY_People, Experts. Knowledge IPN_Model2_Oscillations_0.1.7

Bruce.Beihoff

Insight Stage 4 Dress Rehearsal Economy and Fossil Fuels

Victor Wong

3

I have tried to capture the unemployment benefits budget in a causal loop diagram. You can make this as extensive as you want, but I have tried to focus on how unemployment benefits are financed and on the main determinants of expenditures and income. I was not (yet) able to 'close te loop' - to build the diagram up from feedback cycles.
The diagram is in Dutch.

Causal loop diagram of unemployment benefits

Henny van Dongen

Cutbacks can have a counterintuitive effect. The government knows precisely how much it custs in spending. However, it cannot know the extent to which tax revenues shrink in a non-linear complex economic system as the economy contracts. In addition, the treasury has to spend more as automatic stabilizers activate and payments are made to an increasing number of unemployed workers. The effect of this is that initially the deficit shrinks, but later it rises as tax revenues fall short of expectations and more spending takes place. The ironic part is that often the very indicator that promted austerity measurs, the defcit to GDP ratio, becomes worse than it was at the outset. We could observe this in Spain and Portugal where planned deficits have been repeatedly missed, as austerity measures (fiscal cutbacks) were introduced to deal with the effects of the 2008 financial crisis.

CUTBACKS OFTEN MAKE FISCAL DEFICITS WORSE

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Peak oil occurs not when there are no more reserves, but when it is too expensive to bring them to the surface. The diagram describes a dynamic where peak oil leads to oil prices that are too low for oil companies to produce oil. There are two keys to understand this counterintuitive situation. First, it is important to realize that without energy (oil) no economic activity can take place. Second, when supplies of oil become scarce, non-elite workers - because of the contraction of the economy - will lose their jobs or suffer salary cuts. This will make goods containing (or using) oil products too expensive for the masses. Demand for those products (most things on the market) will decline and with it demand for oil - oil prices will drop too low for oil companies to produce oil!

These ideas stem from Gail Tverberg's blog: 'Our Finite World'. https://ourfiniteworld.com/

PEAK OIL LEADS TO LOW OIL PRICES

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Introduction:

This model aims to show that how the Tasmania government's COVID-19 policy can address the spread of the pandemic and in what way these policies can damage the economy.

Assumption:

Variables such as infection rate, death rate and the recovery rate are influenced by the actual situation.

The government will implement stricter travel bans and social distant policies as there are more cases.

Government policies reduce infection and limit economic growth at the same time.

A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.

Interesting insights:

A higher testing rate will make the infection increase and the infection rate will slightly increase as well.

Government policies are effective to lower the infection, however, they will damage the local economy. While the higher number of COVID-19 cases also influences economic activities.

Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie_Guoyu Shen

Guoyu Shen

Economics Fast Fashion

Andhika

12 last month

Adam Smith's The Invisible Hand: The Feedback Structure of Markets. From Sterman JD Business Dynamics p170 Fig 5-26. A price-mediated resource allocation system..

Price control mechanism

Geoff McDonnell

6

Butterfly Effect
Sensitivity To Initial Conditions
(sensitive dependence on initial conditions)
Navier Stokes Equations
Lorenz Attractor
Chaos Theory, Disorder and Entropy

Although the butterfly effect may appear to be an esoteric and unlikely behavior, it is exhibited by very simple systems: for example, a ball placed at the crest of a hill may roll into any of several valleys depending on, among other things, slight differences in initial position. Similarly the direction a pencil falls when held on its tip, or an universe during its initial stages.

These attractors apply to social systems and economics showing jumps between potential wells, and showing the strategic scaling behavior of rotating and cyclic systems whether they be social, economic, or complex spin or rotation of planets affecting weather and climate or spin of galaxies or elementary particles, or even a rock on the end of a piece of string.

What Playing with numbers is all about :)

If M is the state space for the map , then displays sensitive dependence to initial conditions if for any x in M and any δ > 0, there are y in M, with such that

Clone of THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT

Ana Cristina Beja

Climate Sector Boundary Diagram By Guy Lakeman

Climate, Weather, Ecology, Economics, Population, Welfare, Energy, Policy, CO2, Carbon Cycle, GHG (green house gasses, combined effects)

As general population is composed of 85% with an education level of a 12 grader or less (a 17 year old), a simple block of components concerning the health of the planet needs to be broken down into simple blocks.

Perhaps this picture will show the basics on which to vote for a sustained healthy future

Democracy is only as good as the ability of the voters to FULLY understand the implications of the policies on which they vote., both context and the various perspectives. National voting of unqualified voters on specific policy issues is the sign of corrupt manipulation.

Climate Sector Boundary Diagram of Guy Lakeman

Guy Lakeman

3

$This model shows the operation of a simple economy. It demonstrates the effect of changes in the fractional rate of consumption (or the converse the fractional rate of saving.) In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of production and consumption in the l$

This model shows the operation of a simple economy. It demonstrates the effect of changes in the fractional rate of consumption (or the converse the fractional rate of saving.)

In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of production and consumption in the long-run.

Simple Economy: Model 8

Jim Berger

3

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

This Scenario hits Affluence (1% decrease per annum) to increase decarbonization of energy

Final Project 2 W/ Socio-Economic Factors - Reinvestment Scenario

Geoffrey Alan Chapman

Summary:

This model shows the situation of Burnie in COVID 19. The assumed number of people death and recovered can be find in the model. It also shows how is the government policy influence the susceptible people and what factors will be affected by the government policy.

Assumption:

Most people follow the social distancing rule and a few people need quarantine. Economic growth rate is composed by industrial production, service industry and online economy.

Interesting insight:

Most infection happened in the group of people who do not follow the government policy. The online economy has a chance to growth fast during the COVID 19 period.

Burnie Situation in COVID 19