Taken from Saeed, Khalid. ‘Limits to Growth Concepts in Classical Economics’. In Feedback Economics: Economic Modeling with System Dynamics, edited by Robert Y. Cavana, Brian C. Dangerfield, Oleg V. Pavlov, Michael J. Radzicki, and I. David Wheat, 217–46. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-67190-7_9.

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

A causal loop diagram illustrating solutions for the homelessness problem

Multiscale view of Combined PH and Economic Views IM 70763  in preparation for integrating with Prevention Investment Framework (private) IM

Economic growth cannot go on forever, although politicians and most economist seem to think so. The activity involved in economic growth necessarily  generates entropy (disorder and environmental degradation). Entorpy in turn generates powerful negative feedback loops which will, as a response from nature, ensure that economic activity will eventually grind to a complete halt.  In these circumstances organised society cannot persist and will collapse. The negative feedback loops shown in this graph have already started to operate. The longer economic growth continues unabated, the more powerful these negative feedback loops will become. How long can economic growth continue before it is overwhelmed? It may not be very far in the future.

This model demonstrate how the exisitng tested COVID cases effects economic recovery via goverment intervenes.

Smithian growth model from Michael Joffe Fig. 3.7 p57 Ch3 Feedback Economics Book

Summary WIP of Thomas Palley's 2012 Book

The recent moratorium on deep-sea drilling will reduce the supply of oil. But the world-wide trend is an ever increasing demand for it. This simple CLD  tries to illustrate the dampening effect on demand and on economic activity of diminishing oil supplies and of rising prices: oil prices  affect virtually all products and especially agricultural production. As it becomes more and more difficult to extract oil, prices must rise. At the moment the global recession counteracts this effect, but the recession will not last forever. Is it too early to speak of Peak Oil?

Based on chapter 14 of Modeling Dynamic Economic Systems

WIP Summary of Davies 2017 article from special Theory Culture and Society issue on Elites and Power after Financialization

Implementation of the Solow model of economic growth with labor enhancing technology.

parameters: s, alpha, delta, n, gA
variables: Y. K, L, C, A
per capita variables: y, k, c, a
per capita and technology variables: y~, k~, c~
steady state variables: y~*, k~*, c~*
all variables come with relative growth rates g

Features:

+steady state from beginning
+one time labor shock
+permanent savings quote shock
+permanent technological growth rate shock

Decreasing steady state variables when starting in steady state are numeric artifacts.

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

What we can learn from a child?  

Everything! 

I certainly learned everything after one day spent judging high school students who researched the industrial impacts on planet and people in under-developed parts of the world.  

Students are supported by an industry advisory board who funds and staffs the two regional events. I was one of the IAB members representing Parents at Large.

The program has a parent, teacher and works with students from 5th grade to high school graduation ensuring and advocating students are attending the courses required for a four year university in STEM subjects.  Underperforming schools and districts randomly assign courses without regard for A-G requirements.  Parents have no way to dispute nor are they aware of the systemic challenges faced by districts serving low income students. Even if students get into the right courses, they are often not scheduled to take the SAT test (another university entrance requirement).  Even advanced course students are not guaranteed they will be registered.  

MESA Program statistics indicate many participants had the criteria to go into a 4 year university.  Only a small percentage actually enrolled.  One point of failure in these dismal outcomes pertains to the high school administration practice which only submits a small group for SAT Testing.  Eliminating the remainder of eager students, with this one decision destroying the hopes and dreams of low income students.  "You weren't submitted for the SAT, because you need to attend Community College" statement made to several advanced placement students. These students worked for years as participants in the MESA Program, completing annual robotics projects from grade 5 into their senior year of high school.                                                                                                            Our future leaders could benefit from a different approach to higher education.  Why is different so important?  The point of failure mentioned above, is a systemic failure caused by failures in equality.  The higher crime and homelessness are two direct outcomes or opportunities we can reverse if we allow students in our hardest to reach communities to earn a Six Sigma belt path in experience based learning.  Replicate the MESA Schools projects in all hard to reach populations.  Partnering Universities, public and private sector organizations financing the development of shared service centers.   

Our youth have great potential and passion for understanding problems effecting their environments whether social, economic or cultural.  

The only thing missing in today's contestants "having the access to accurate information which they can decipher into knowledge and the means to experience corrective action which should result in value based wisdom gained from experience."

Ideally, the wisdom shared in a free online visualization tool would be a means to leverage work done by academics and system thinkers.  Progressive educators are using this tool to debate various topics of importance all over the world.  

See debategraph

Climate change

http://debategraph.org/Stream.aspx?nid=610&vt=spacetree&dc=focus

Planet under pressure

http://debategraph.org/planet

London agenda on cyberspace

http://debategraph.org/Stream.aspxnid=121532&vt=spacetree&dc=focus

Prosperity without growth

http://debategraph.org/Stream.aspx?nid=32883&vt=spacetree&dc=focu

Thank you to all the students who allowed me to judge their wonderful speeches.  It was a crash course in work I shared with LinkedIn group "System Thinking World" using Insight Maker.  

This high-level simulation model presented by Jay Forrester in his book World Dynamics, simulates socio-economic-environmental world system. The world Model was created in a time where pollution and other negative effects of industrialization and economic growth started to become recognized in 1970. For this exam purpose, we have rebuilt the model to do some experiments and analyze the results. 

This model shows the operation of a simple economy with two modifications made to Model 2 -- 1) feedback from production rate to consumption rate and 2) the use of a fractional rate input for calculating consumption rate. 

In summary, lower fractional rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher levels of Savings.

This model shows the operation of a simple economy. It demonstrates the effect of changes in the fractional rate of consumption (or the converse, the fractional rate of saving.) It also, unlike Models 2 & 3, shows the influence Savings has on the production rate.

In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of both production and consumption in the long-run.

Overview of Part E Ch 20 to 24 of Mitchell Wray and Watts Textbook see IM-164967 for book overview

​Climate Sector Boundary Diagram By Guy Lakeman

Shows the development of wealth if betting is according to the Kelly criterion.

A simple implementation of a Dynamic ISLM model as proposed by Blanchard (1981), and taken from An introduction to economic Dynamics - Shone (1997) - chapter 5. This model might serve as a framework to evaluate economic policies over GDP growth.