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This Model was developed from the SEIR Model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered) and it predicts the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. This pandemic outbreak contributes to diverse rates including infection rate, death rates and recovery rate, government policies and its economic impacts.

Assumptions:

This model is driven by its determined rates, e.g., incubation rate, morality rate, test rate and immunity loss rate and its recovery rate.

Government policies are involved in fully vaccination rate, social distance, national border closure, travel, and business restriction which effect Burnie’s economy.

There are three economic entities dimensions in Burnie Island, we can tell that the pandemic has negative impact on Brick-and-Mortar enterprises and tourism business to some extent, whereas, e commercial business plays a crucial role to stimulate the regional economic activities during the COVID-19 period.

Interesting Insights:

The figure of susceptible changes significantly during the initial 3 weeks because of low recovery rate and high infection rate. On the other hand, the implementation and interventions of government policies is effective, because the number of patients who tested negative is increased and the majority of them release and go back home after medical follow-up.

Xueli Huang 501514, BMA708 Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

XUELI HUANG

This model shows the operation of a simple economy. It demonstrates the effect of changes in the fractional rate of consumption (or the converse the fractional rate of saving.)

In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of production and consumption in the long-run.

Simple Economy: Model 8

Jim Berger

3

Explanation:

Explanation:

This model presents the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie and how the government reacts to it. Moreover, the model also illustrates how the economy in Burnie is impacted by the pandemic. The possible stages of residents when the infectious disease spreads in Burnie can be concluded as Susceptible, Infection and Recovery, which are used as the main data in this model. However, the improvement of decreasing of reported infection rates of this infectious disease and increasing of recovery rates are contributed by the implementation of the Government Health Policy.

Assumption

The decrease of both infection rate and economic growth are all influenced by the Government Health Policy simultaneously. The Government Health Policy is only triggered when there are 10 cases reported. However, the increase in reporting COVID-19 cases affects economic growth negatively.

Interesting Insights:

There are two interesting insights that have been revealed from the simulation. First, the death rate continuously increased even though the infection rate goes down. However, the increase in testing rates contributed to the stability of the death rate towards the end of the week. Moreover, higher testing rates also trigger faster government intervention, which can reduce infectious cases. Second, as the Government Health Policy limited the chance of going out and shopping, the economic growth is negative due to the higher cases.

BMA708, Assessment 3: Complex system, Burnie Covid-19 outbreak

Hanyong Li

This simple model describes wealth accumulation. The value in income is described by the following simple equation:

simple wealth accumulation model

Larry Lee

24

Decarbonization Stories

Dean M

12

Clone of Pesticide Use in Central America for Lab work

This model is an attempt to simulate what is commonly referred to as the “pesticide treadmill” in agriculture and how it played out in the cotton industry in Central America after the Second World War until around the 1990s.

The cotton industry expanded dramatically in Central America after WW2, increasing from 20,000 hectares to 463,000 in the late 1970s. This expansion was accompanied by a huge increase in industrial pesticide application which would eventually become the downfall of the industry.

The primary pest for cotton production, bol weevil, became increasingly resistant to chemical pesticides as they were applied each year. The application of pesticides also caused new pests to appear, such as leafworms, cotton aphids and whitefly, which in turn further fuelled increased application of pesticides.

The treadmill resulted in massive increases in pesticide applications: in the early years they were only applied a few times per season, but this application rose to up to 40 applications per season by the 1970s; accounting for over 50% of the costs of production in some regions.

The skyrocketing costs associated with increasing pesticide use were one of the key factors that led to the dramatic decline of the cotton industry in Central America: decreasing from its peak in the 1970s to less than 100,000 hectares in the 1990s. “In its wake, economic ruin and environmental devastation were left” as once thriving towns became ghost towns, and once fertile soils were wasted, eroded and abandoned (Lappe, 1998).

Sources: Douglas L. Murray (1994), Cultivating Crisis: The Human Cost of Pesticides in Latin America, pp35-41; Francis Moore Lappe et al (1998), World Hunger: 12 Myths, 2nd Edition, pp54-55.

REM 221 - Causal Loop diagramming

Steve Conrad

371

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Final Project 1 W/ Socio-Economic Factors

Geoffrey Alan Chapman

3

Goodwin cycle IM-2010 with debt and taxes added, modified from Steve Keen's illustration of Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis "stability begets instability". This can be extended by adding the Ponzi effect of borrowing for speculative investment.

Minsky Financial Instability Model

Geoff McDonnell

29

This model shows the operation of a simple economy with two modifications made to Model 2 -- 1) feedback from production rate to consumption rate and 2) the use of a fractional rate input for calculating consumption rate.

In summary, lower fractional rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher levels of Savings.

Simple Economy: Model 3

Jim Berger

What we can learn from a child?

Everything!

I certainly learned everything after one day spent judging high school students who researched the industrial impacts on planet and people in under-developed parts of the world.

Students are supported by an industry advisory board who funds and staffs the two regional events. I was one of the IAB members representing Parents at Large.

The program has a parent, teacher and works with students from 5th grade to high school graduation ensuring and advocating students are attending the courses required for a four year university in STEM subjects. Underperforming schools and districts randomly assign courses without regard for A-G requirements. Parents have no way to dispute nor are they aware of the systemic challenges faced by districts serving low income students. Even if students get into the right courses, they are often not scheduled to take the SAT test (another university entrance requirement). Even advanced course students are not guaranteed they will be registered.

MESA Program statistics indicate many participants had the criteria to go into a 4 year university. Only a small percentage actually enrolled. One point of failure in these dismal outcomes pertains to the high school administration practice which only submits a small group for SAT Testing. Eliminating the remainder of eager students, with this one decision destroying the hopes and dreams of low income students. "You weren't submitted for the SAT, because you need to attend Community College" statement made to several advanced placement students. These students worked for years as participants in the MESA Program, completing annual robotics projects from grade 5 into their senior year of high school. Our future leaders could benefit from a different approach to higher education. Why is different so important? The point of failure mentioned above, is a systemic failure caused by failures in equality. The higher crime and homelessness are two direct outcomes or opportunities we can reverse if we allow students in our hardest to reach communities to earn a Six Sigma belt path in experience based learning. Replicate the MESA Schools projects in all hard to reach populations. Partnering Universities, public and private sector organizations financing the development of shared service centers.

Our youth have great potential and passion for understanding problems effecting their environments whether social, economic or cultural.

The only thing missing in today's contestants "having the access to accurate information which they can decipher into knowledge and the means to experience corrective action which should result in value based wisdom gained from experience."

Ideally, the wisdom shared in a free online visualization tool would be a means to leverage work done by academics and system thinkers. Progressive educators are using this tool to debate various topics of importance all over the world.

See debategraph

Climate change

http://debategraph.org/Stream.aspx?nid=610&vt=spacetree&dc=focus

Planet under pressure

http://debategraph.org/planet

London agenda on cyberspace

http://debategraph.org/Stream.aspxnid=121532&vt=spacetree&dc=focus

Prosperity without growth

http://debategraph.org/Stream.aspx?nid=32883&vt=spacetree&dc=focu

Thank you to all the students who allowed me to judge their wonderful speeches. It was a crash course in work I shared with LinkedIn group "System Thinking World" using Insight Maker.

Crash course in the climate threats from the mouth of Babes

Lisa Marie “Werby-Martinez”

3

This model demonstrate how the exisitng tested COVID cases effects economic recovery via goverment intervenes.

Assumption:Goverment intervenes positively contribute on transmission, patients recovery, and death elimination. When existing cases equal or lower than 10 cases, economic growth will be soaring with helps of influencial elements.

Interesting points: even though there are certain amount of unknow cases, enhancing social restriction and increasing test rate ould still reduce amount of cases

Complex Model to Simulate How COVID Outbreak Influence Economic Recovery in Burnie

Youjia Xiao

Smithian growth model from Michael Joffe Fig. 3.7 p57 Ch3 Feedback Economics Book

Adam Smith's Growth through Division of labour

Geoff McDonnell

Buying and storing electricity when it is cheap, and selling it when it is expensive. What are the benefits, both public and private?

Smart Grid: Electricity storage and variable energy pricing

Carlos

14

Based on chapter 14 of Modeling Dynamic Economic Systems

Quasi-competitive equilibrium model

Martín López Ramírez

213

Eastern oyster growth model calibrated for Long Island Sound
Developed and implemented by Joao G. Ferreira and Camille Saurel; growth data from Eva Galimany, Gary Wickfors, and Julie Rose; driver data from Julie Rose and Suzanne Bricker; Culture practice from the REServ team and Tessa Getchis. This model is a workbench for combining ecological and economic components for REServ. Economic component added by Trina Wellman.

This is a one box model for an idealized farm with one million oysters seeded (one hectare @ a stocking density of 100 oysters per square meter)

1. Run WinShell individual growth model for one year with Long Island Sound growth drivers;

2. Determine the scope for growth (in dry tissue weight per day) for oysters centered on the five weight classes)

3. Apply a classic population dynamics equation:

dn(s,t)/dt = -d[n(s,t)g(s,t)]/ds - u(s)n(s,t)

s: Weight (g)
t: Time
n: Number of individuals of weight s
g: Scope for growth (g day-1)
u: Mortality rate (day-1)

4. Set mortality at 30% per year, slider allows scenarios from 30% to 80% per year

5. Determine harvestable biomass, i.e. weight class 5, 40-50 g (roughly three inches length)

REServ Eastern oyster ecology and economics Long Island Sound

Joao G. Ferreira

How Pioneer Corn is Changing Farming in Ghana

BrownieH

WIP Summary of Miller 2015 PCD article for the Compelling Case for Prevention Project Scoping Study.

See also economic view IM 69774 (private)

Simplified at IM-70351 Tool

Prevention Investment Framework

Geoff McDonnell

FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION
BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!
(governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept and flawed strategy of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

FORCED GROWTH INTO TURBULENCE