The complex
model reflects the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. The model explains
how the COVID-19 outbreak will influence the government policies and economic
impacts. The infected population will be based on how many susceptible, infected,
and recovered individuals in Burnie. It influences the probability of infected
population meeting with susceptible individuals.
The fatality
rate will be influenced by the elderly population and pre-existing medical
conditions. Even though individuals can recover from COVID-19 disease, some of
them will have immunity loss and become part of the susceptible individuals, or
they will be diagnosed with long term illnesses (mental and physical). Thus, these
variables influence the number of confirmed cases in Burnie and the implementation
of government policies.
The government
policies depend on the confirmed COVID-19 cases. The government policies
include business restrictions, lock down, vaccination and testing rate. These variables
have negative impacts on the infection of COVID-19 disease. However, these policies
have some negative effects on commercial industry and positive effects on e-commerce
and medical industry. These businesses growth rate can influence the economic
growth of Burnie with the economic
Most of the
variables are adjustable with the slider provided below. They can be adjusted from
0 to 1, which illustrates the percentages associated with the specific variables.
They can also be adjusted to three decimal points, i.e., from 0.1 to 0.001.
Assumptions
- The maximum
population of Burnie is 20000.
- The maximum
number of infected individuals is 100.
- Government
policies are triggered when the COVID-19 cases reach 10 or above.
- The government
policies include business restrictions, lock down, vaccination and testing
rates only. Other policies are not being considered under this model.
- The vaccination
policy implemented by the government is compulsory.
- The testing
rate is set by the government. The slider should not be changed unless the testing
rate is adjusted by the government.
- The
fatality rate is influenced by the elderly population and pre-existing medical
conditions only. Other factors are not being considered under this model.
- People who
recovered from COVID-19 disease will definitely suffer form immunity loss or any
other long term illnesses.
- Long term
illnesses include mental illnesses and physical illnesses only. Other illnesses
are not being considered under this model.
- Economic activities
are provided with an assumption value of 1000.
- The higher
the number of COVID-19 cases, the more negative impact they have on the economy
of Burnie.
Interesting Insights
A higher recovery rate can decrease the number of COVID-19 cases as well as the
probability of infected population meeting with susceptible persons, but it takes
longer for the economy to recover compared to a lower recovery rate. A higher
recovery rate can generate a larger number of people diagnosed with long term
illnesses.
Testing rate
triggers multiple variables, such as government policies, positive cases, susceptible
and infected individuals. A lower testing rate can decrease the COVID-19 confirmed
cases, but it can increase the number of susceptible people. And a higher
testing rate can trigger the implementation of government policies, thus
decreasing the infection rate. As the testing rate has a strong correlation
with the government policies, it can also influence the economy of Burnie.
