Assignment 1- Part 2 Energy Economics and Fossil Fuels

• This model examines how sustainable consumerism is from social, economic, and environmental aspects. The question in focus is "How will our second-hand clothing donations affect communities in developing countries, specifically Kenya?"

Description

Model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

This model was designed from the SIR model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19 outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.

Assumptions

The government policy is triggered when the number of infected is more than ten.

The government policies will take a negative effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.

Parameters

We set some fixed and adjusted variables.

Covid-19 outbreak's parameter

Fixed parameters: Infection rate, Background disease, recovery rate.

Adjusted parameter: Immunity loss rate can be changed from vaccination rate.

Government policy's parameters

Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)

Economic's parameters

Fixed parameter: Tourism

Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)

Interesting insight

An increased vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system still needs a long time to recover in both cases.

ABOUT THE MODEL

This is a dynamic model that shows the correlation between the health-related policies implemented by the Government in response to COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania, and the policies’ impact on the Economic activity of the area.

 ASSUMPTIONS

The increase in the number of COVID-19 cases is directly proportional to the increase in the Government policies in the infected region. The Government policies negatively impact the economy of Burnie, Tasmania.

INTERESTING INSIGHTS

1. When the borders are closed by the government, the economy is severely affected by the decrease of revenue generated by the Civil aviation/Migration rate. As the number of COVID-19 cases increase, the number of people allowed to enter Australian borders will also decrease by the government. 

2. The Economic activity sharply increases and stays in uniformity. 

3. The death rate drastically decreased as we increased test rate by 90%.

This is to support a discussion on money flows and growth. Money as a lubricant for the flow of embodied energy in human systems.
See also A Prosperous Way Down website

An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.

Map of Geoffrey M Hodgson's 2015 Conceptualizing Capitalism book summary pdf  with other ideologies added sept 2021 from new politics website

Any activity  requires the use of energy. Economic activity is not possible without energy,  especially fossil fuels. An increase in economic activity necessarily leads to an increase in the use  fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions. In addition there will   be a commensurate increase in waste products, pollution and heat. This is dictated by the laws of physics and unavoidable.  A problem arise when the cost of this degeneration caused by continual economic growth surpasses the benefit society derives from it. The ecological economist Professor Herman Daly (2014) explained that when the impact on the ecosystem is correctly measured, global growth has reached a point where the total private and social costs of economic growth outweigh the private and social benefits. In other words, more economic growth is making global society worse off overall - growth has become uneconomic! The model shows that eventually pressures will build up that counteract the perennial belief that all social ills can be solved with economic growth. 

Extended from Im-628 Supply and demand by adding control folder.

The model is built to demonstrates how Burnie Tasmania can deal with a new COVID-19 outbreaks, taking government policies and economic effects into account.

This Insight is used for simulating growth of a company with specified parameters.

WIP of Rammelt's 2019 System Dynamics Review Article which has STELLA and Minsky software versions as supplements. Compare with the older IM-2011 version

An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.

During the 'big recession' many governments have deliberately repressed salaries, usually via structural reforms, in order to gain competitivity. However, repression of salaries increases inequality, social discontent and often has counterintuitive effects. Salaries are a cost for companies, but they are also the basis for the demand for the goods and services they offer: people with little income cannot afford them. Scientific studies have shown repeatedly that economic growth generated via salary increases does not endanger the creation of employment, but rather reinforces it. In most countries, the 'positive effect of salary increases' eclipses any possible negative effects on export competitivity and even any detrimental effect on investment. A good example of such a study is the work of ONARAN and OBST on Wage-led Growth in the EU15 Member States (2016).  This positive dynamic has been highlighted in the model by prominent arrows. The policy implications for governments are clear! 

From Warren C. Sanderson in Population - Development - Environment, Wolfgang Lutz (Ed.), 1994, Springer.

Book summary of Albert O Hirschman's 1982 book, explaining cycles of collective public action.