WIP Ideas from Science Special Issue May 2014

WIP SD REpresentation of Steve Keen's BOMD Minsky model (described in Fig.5 of his patreon Jan2021 Draft New Economics Manifesto) to hope to make the causal structure clearer

Any activity  requires the use of energy. Economic activity is not possible without energy,  especially fossil fuels. An increase in economic activity necessarily leads to an increase in the use  fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions. In addition there will   be a commensurate increase in waste products, pollution and heat. This is dictated by the laws of physics and unavoidable.  A problem arise when the cost of this degeneration caused by continual economic growth surpasses the benefit society derives from it. The ecological economist Professor Herman Daly (2014) explained that when the impact on the ecosystem is correctly measured, global growth has reached a point where the total private and social costs of economic growth outweigh the private and social benefits. In other words, more economic growth is making global society worse off overall - growth has become uneconomic! The model shows that eventually pressures will build up that counteract the perennial belief that all social ills can be solved with economic growth. 

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Mike Huckabee's economic policy based on the information at: http://www.mikehuckabee.com/tax-reform and http://www.mikehuckabee.com/spending-debt (here, the candidate did not have a single clear economic policy, so we used economic elements from other policy statements that were clearly relevant).   The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: ​ http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

This is to support a discussion on money flows and growth. Money as a lubricant for the flow of embodied energy in human systems.
See also A Prosperous Way Down website

Overview of Part E Ch 20 to 24 of Mitchell Wray and Watts Textbook see IM-164967 for book overview

This Model was developed from the SEIR model (Susceptible, Enposed, Infected, Recovered). It was designed to explore relationships between the government policies regarding the COVID-19 and its impact upon the economy as well as well-being of residents. 

Assumptions:

Government policies will be triggered when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less;

Government Policies affect the economy and the COV-19 infection negatively at the same time;

Government Policies can be divided as 4 categories, which are Social Distancing, Business Restrictions, Lock Down, Travel Ban, and Hygiene Level, and they represented strength of different aspects;

 

Parameters:

Policies like Social Distancing, Business Restrictions, Lock Down, Travel Ban all have different weights and caps, and they add up to 1 in total;

 

There are 4 cases on March 9th; 

Ro= 5.7  Ro is the reproduction number, here it means one person with COVID-19 can potentially transmit the coronavirus to 5 to 6 people;

Interesting Insights:

Economy will grow at the beginning few weeks then becoming stagnant for a very long time;

Exposed people are significant, which requires early policies intervention such as social distancing.

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

WIP of Rammelt's 2019 System Dynamics Review Article which has STELLA and Minsky software versions as supplements. Compare with the older IM-2011 version

Brief Summary of Albert O Hirschman's Book with 2026 update

Summary WIP of Thomas Palley's 2012 Book

This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Based on 2023 framework from Australian Treasury mapped into the Salutogenesis framework via social wellbeing

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Based on G.P. Cimellaro et al. Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 3639–3649 paper