Irving Fisher's Debt Deflation Theory from Michael Joffe Fig. 3.4 p54 Ch3 Feedback Economics Book with Private Credit Inflation boom added to the bust cycles
Irving Fisher's Debt Deflation Theory
WIP Exttension of IM-172005 Simulation of Goodwin01 Minsky Model. Compare with Part3 slide 5 of presentation in patreon
Goodwin02 Minsky Simulation Keen Economic Dynamics Aug2019
This model analyzes the interaction between climate change mitigation and adaptation in the land use sector using the concept of forest transition as a framework.
Forest Transition
Explanation:
Explanation:
This model presents the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie and how the government reacts to it. Moreover, the model also illustrates how the economy in Burnie is impacted by the pandemic. The possible stages of residents when the infectious disease spreads in Burnie can be concluded as Susceptible, Infection and Recovery, which are used as the main data in this model. However, the improvement of decreasing of reported infection rates of this infectious disease and increasing of recovery rates are contributed by the implementation of the Government Health Policy.
Assumption
The decrease of both infection rate and economic growth are all influenced by the Government Health Policy simultaneously. The Government Health Policy is only triggered when there are 10 cases reported. However, the increase in reporting COVID-19 cases affects economic growth negatively.
Interesting Insights:
There are two interesting insights that have been revealed from the simulation. First, the death rate continuously increased even though the infection rate goes down. However, the increase in testing rates contributed to the stability of the death rate towards the end of the week. Moreover, higher testing rates also trigger faster government intervention, which can reduce infectious cases. Second, as the Government Health Policy limited the chance of going out and shopping, the economic growth is negative due to the higher cases.
BMA708, Assessment 3: Complex system, Burnie Covid-19 outbreak
Challenge p.212 Business Dynamics, Sterman
Oil Shortage 1979 Iran Revolution
Economic Cost-Benefit Analysis- Roadkill Mitigation
Causal loop diagram capturing the interactions, trade-offs, and synergies between agriculture (SDG 2), water availability (SDG 6), economic growth (SDG 8), and life on land (SDG 15). Positive feedback linkages are shown as a positive sign (+), whereas negative feedback linkages are shown with a negative sign (−). The purple arrows indicate the enviro-biophysical linkages. The green arrows indicate the socio-economic linkages. The SDG icons are courtesy of the UN SDG communications material.
Reference - Bandari, Reihaneh, et al. "Participatory Modeling for Analyzing Interactions Between High‐Priority Sustainable Development Goals to Promote Local Sustainability." Earth's Future 11.12 (2023): e2023EF003948.
The Story of Interactions of SDGs
WIP Ideas from Science Special Issue May 2014
The Science of Inequality
Brief Summary of Albert O Hirschman's Book
The Passions and the Interests
Buying and storing electricity when it is cheap, and selling it when it is expensive. What are the benefits, both public and private?
Smart Grid: Electricity storage and variable energy pricing
Circular equations WIP for Runy.
Added several versions of the model. Added a flow to make C increase. Added a factor to be able to change the value 0.5. Older version cloned at IM-46280
Clone of Circularity in Economic models
This model shows the operation of a simple economy. It demonstrates the effect of changes in the fractional rate of consumption (or the converse, the fractional rate of saving.) It also, unlike Models 2 & 3, shows the influence Savings has on the production rate.
In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of both production and consumption in the long-run.
Simple Economy: Model 4
Farmers use intensive pesticides to harvest cotton, which is harmful to not only the health of the farmers using them, but also our environment as it pollutes rivers and groundwater that negatively interfere with the ecosystem. Even though these farmers know of the health and environmental risks, they still use harmful pesticides to produce cotton, but why is this so. This stock and flow map should explain what impacts farmers to use pesticides to grow cotton despite the risks and explain the cause and effect relationship their use has on the cotton industry and the environment.
According to Clevo Wilson and Clem Tisdell article, "Why farmer continue to use pesticides despite environmental, health and sustainable costs,"
Pesticide use by farmers:
- "used to reduce yield losses to pests"
- "avoid economic losses to ensure economical survival"
- "increase supply market and reduce market prices"
- "ignorance of sustainable use"
- "integral part of commercially grow high yielding varieties so without use, high yields may not be sustained"
- "damage to agriculture land from the use occurs over long period of time so costs may not look serious short term, but reduces economic welfare in long term"
- "environmental damage: pollutes rivers and groundwater, destroys beneficial predators and interferes with ecosystem overall"
- "health risks underestimated"
- "chemical companies selling it have incentive to push their use by advertising and promotion" (1,9).
Farmer Pesticide Use On Cotton
• This model examines how sustainable consumerism is from social, economic, and environmental aspects. The question in focus is "
How will our second-hand clothing donations affect communities in developing countries, specifically Kenya?"
5 Stock Variables:
• U.S. Consumers
• Multinational Corporations
• Overseas Factories
• Kenya
Highlight Findings:
To sum up, there are 4 major problems associated to donations:
• 1.
Source of problem is the consumer: Cheap deals attract hundreds of millions in revenue for fast fashion, and contribute to 100,000 tonnes of clothing to Kenya annually.
• 2. Rapid consumerism leads to over-utilization of slowly-renewable resources, such as water.
• 3. Nearly 96% of textiles jobs are eradicated by the massive inflow of clothing donations to Kenya.
• 4. The offshoring of textiles jobs enrages U.S. blue-collar workers, leading to the rise of protectionism.
Environmental, social, and economic sustainability aspects of textiles donations
WIP SD REpresentation of Steve Keen's BOMD Minsky model (described in Fig.5 of his patreon Jan2021 Draft New Economics Manifesto) to hope to make the causal structure clearer
Keen Bank Originated Money and Private Debt
COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania Simulation Model
Introduction
This model simulates how COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie and how the government responses influence the economic community. Government responses are based on the reported COVID-19 cases amount, whcih is considered to be based on testing rate times number of people who are infected minus those recovered from COVID-19 and dead.
Government interventions include the implement of healthy policy, border surveillance, quarantine and travel restriction. After outbreak, economic activities are positively affected by the ecommerce channel development and normal economic grwoth, while the unemployement rate unfortunately increases as well.
Assumption
- Enforcing government policies reduce both infection and economica growth.
- When there are 10 or greater COVID-19 cases reported, the governmwnt policies are triggered.
- Greater COVID-19 cases have negatively influenced the economic activities.
- Government policies restict people's activities socially and economically, leading to negative effects on economy.
- Opportunities for jobs are cut down too, making umemployment rate increased.
- During the outbreak period, ecommerce has increased accordingly because people are restricted from going out.
Interesting insights
An increase in vaccination rate will make difference on reduing the infection. People who get vaccinated are seen to have higher immunity index to fight with COVID-19. Further research is needed.
Testing rate is considered as critical issue to reflect the necessity of government intervention. Higher testing rate seems to boost immediate intervention. Reinforced policies can then reduce the spread of coronvirus but absoluately have negative impacts on economy too.
Mengling Xue 561743 BMA708_Marketing insights into Big Data
When people talk about a government deficit, they forget
that this is only one side of the ledger. On the other is a corresponding non-government
SURPLUS. The money the government spends is not lost but shows up in the private
sector as income. When one talks only of the deficit then one can understand that
many think it should be reduced or even converted into a surplus, but reducing
the government deficit reduces private sector income and a government surplus
forces a deficit on the private sector with a potentially devastating
effect on private sector wealth and economic activity. Unless the economy is overheating, government
deficits are usually healthy. For countries that run traditionally a trade deficit,
such as the US they are necessary to maintain economic activity. Consider this
fact: for almost all of past 40 years the US and the UK have run deficits without
any harmful effects!
This video by professor Stephanie Kelton contains evidence that supports the modle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6rlprwQB5E
The Dynamic that shows that Government Deficits benefit the Private Sector
From Jay Forrester 1988 killian lectures youtube video describing system dynamics at MIT. For Concepts See IM-185226. For more detailed biography See Jay Forrester memorial webpage For MIT HIstory see IM-184930
System Dynamics Applications
Insight Stage 4 Dress Rehearsal Economy and Fossil Fuels
Commercial aviation economic activity in the EU
ABOUT THE MODEL
This is a dynamic model that shows the correlation between the
health-related policies implemented by the Government in response to COVID-19 outbreak
in Burnie, Tasmania, and the policies’ impact on the Economic activity of the
area.
ASSUMPTIONS
The increase in the number of COVID-19 cases is directly
proportional to the increase in the Government policies in the infected region.
The Government policies negatively impact the economy of Burnie, Tasmania.
INTERESTING INSIGHTS
1. When the borders are closed by the government, the economy
is severely affected by the decrease of revenue generated by the Civil aviation/Migration
rate. As the number of COVID-19 cases increase, the number of people allowed to
enter Australian borders will also decrease by the government.
2. The Economic activity sharply increases and stays in uniformity.
3. The death rate drastically decreased as we increased test rate by 90%.
COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania (Rajaa Sajjad, 538837)
Revised version of S&F diagram, with Renewable energy investment as an auxiliary variable.
Revised Stock & Flow of Energy Infrastructure Development, Climate Change Impacts, and Economic Activity
This is to support a discussion on money flows and growth. Money as a lubricant for the flow of embodied energy in human systems.
See also A Prosperous Way Down website
Odum Money and Energy Flows
WIP based on Bill mitchell's blogs.
Sectoral balances are relationships among money flows during an accounting period. Where we perceive accumulations of past imbalances to be accrued is another matter....
MMT Fiscal position
