Assignment 1- Part 2 Energy Economics and Fossil Fuels

Challenge p.212 Business Dynamics, Sterman

This model shows the operation of a simple economy with two modifications made to Model 2 -- 1) feedback from production rate to consumption rate and 2) the use of a fractional rate input for calculating consumption rate. 

In summary, lower fractional rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher levels of Savings.

Causal loop diagram capturing the interactions, trade-offs, and synergies between agriculture (SDG 2), water availability (SDG 6), economic growth (SDG 8), and life on land (SDG 15). Positive feedback linkages are shown as a positive sign (+), whereas negative feedback linkages are shown with a negative sign (−). The purple arrows indicate the enviro-biophysical linkages. The green arrows indicate the socio-economic linkages. The SDG icons are courtesy of the UN SDG communications material. 

Reference - Bandari, Reihaneh, et al. "Participatory Modeling for Analyzing Interactions Between High‐Priority Sustainable Development Goals to Promote Local Sustainability." Earth's Future 11.12 (2023): e2023EF003948.

This model shows the structure and operation of a simple economy. It can represent economic systems at different levels of abstraction (e.g. a single good, a group of goods, multiple groups, & an "economy.")

In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of production and consumption in the long-run. Rates of consumption over 100% of production will diminish the savings stock and eventually cause rates of production and consumption to fall.

Based on the SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model of disease, this is an upgraded model with more specifc vaeriables.

Brief Summary of Albert O Hirschman's Book

Buying and storing electricity when it is cheap, and selling it when it is expensive. What are the benefits, both public and private?

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

This model shows the operation of a simple economy. It demonstrates the effect of changes in the fractional rate of consumption (or the converse, the fractional rate of saving.) It also, unlike Models 2 & 3, shows the influence Savings has on the production rate.

In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of both production and consumption in the long-run.

​Farmers use intensive pesticides to harvest cotton, which is harmful to not only the health of the farmers using them, but also our environment as it pollutes rivers and groundwater that negatively interfere with the ecosystem. Even though these farmers know of the health and environmental risks, they still use harmful pesticides to produce cotton, but why is this so. This stock and flow map should explain what impacts farmers to use pesticides to grow cotton despite the risks and explain the cause and effect relationship their use has on the cotton industry and the environment.

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Theory of Structural Change for IAMO Research Group

The part-whole paradigm

Examples of research issues addressed here include the path dependence of farm structures, regime shifts in land-system change, as well as transitional processes in the evolution of farm structures and innovation systems. All these issues feature counter-intuitive systemic properties that could not have been predicted using standard agricultural economics tools. The key strength of the research group in regard to the part-whole paradigm is the internationally renowned expertise in the agent-based modelling of agricultural policy. (More on what happened here until now / is happening now)

The system-environment paradigm

This paradigm is represented by conceptual research drawing inspiration from Niklas Luhmann’s theory of “complexity-reducing” and “operationally closed” social systems. The attributes of complexity reduction and operational closure are shown to generate sustainability problems, conflicts, social dilemmas, ethical issues, and divergent mental models. The organizing idea explaining these phenomena is the complexity-sustainability trade-off, i.e., the tendency of the operationally closed systems to develop excessive internal complexity that overstrains the carrying capacity of the environment. Until now, the conceptual work along these lines has focused on developing the systems-theoretic principles of ecological degradation and highlighted the sustainability-enhancing role of nonprofit organizations and corporate social responsibility. Another overarching topic has been the analysis of connections between Luhmann’s social systems theory and the evolutionary economics approaches, such as those of Thorstein Veblen and Kenneth Boulding. <!--[if gte mso 9]> Normal 0 false false false DE X-NONE X-NONE <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]> <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-ansi-language:DE;} <![endif]-->

This is an important Henry George insight; labor creates all wealth (rather than capital creating it).

This model analyzes the interaction between climate change mitigation and adaptation in the land use sector using the concept of forest transition as a framework.

WIP based on Bill mitchell's blogs. 

Plan for CCP project completion see IM-102242  for WIP detail of the structures of the related models

ABOUT THE MODEL

This is a dynamic model that shows the correlation between the health-related policies implemented by the Government in response to COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania, and the policies’ impact on the Economic activity of the area.

 ASSUMPTIONS

The increase in the number of COVID-19 cases is directly proportional to the increase in the Government policies in the infected region. The Government policies negatively impact the economy of Burnie, Tasmania.

INTERESTING INSIGHTS

1. When the borders are closed by the government, the economy is severely affected by the decrease of revenue generated by the Civil aviation/Migration rate. As the number of COVID-19 cases increase, the number of people allowed to enter Australian borders will also decrease by the government. 

2. The Economic activity sharply increases and stays in uniformity. 

3. The death rate drastically decreased as we increased test rate by 90%.

WIP SD REpresentation of Steve Keen's BOMD Minsky model (described in Fig.5 of his patreon Jan2021 Draft New Economics Manifesto) to hope to make the causal structure clearer