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Tragedy of the Commons Climate Change

3

BACKGROUND:

The following simulation model demonstrates the relationship between supply, demand and pricing within the real estate and housing world. I have based the model on a small city with a population of 100,000 residents as of 2015.

AXIS:

X-Axis

The X-Axis shows the time. It begins in 2015 in the month of October and continues for 36 consecutive years.

Y-Axis

There are 2 Y-Axis on this model. The left hand side relates to the price, demand, and supply, while the right hand side solely lists the population.

As you could see, this town has a population of 100,000 residents to-date. The bottom of the model shows a population loop that produces an exponential growth rate of 2.5%. This dynamic and growing city populates approximately 240,000 residents after 36 years.

MODEL

The model consists of 2 folders named: Buyers/Consumers & Suppliers/Producers. This first folder represents the 'Demand'. It includes a buyers growth rate, buyers interest increase and decrease, a price demand and the demand price. The formulas form an exponential rise in demand due to the rapid and continuous increase in population in this new city. As population increases, so does the demand from buyers.

The second folder conveys the supply of houses. It includes a sophisticated loop of real estate. Residents who own houses in the market decide to sell the home. This becomes the Houses for sale, also known as the 'supply'. Those houses are sold and the sold houses re-enter the market and the loop continues.

The supply has an inverse relationship with the price. When prices drop, supplies drop because the demand goes up. And when the price goes up, so does the supply. This will represent the growth of new houses in the market.

PRICE

Note: The price is based on monthly rent rates.

The price is dependant on many variables. Most importantly, the supply and demand. It also includes factors such as expectations & the economic value of the house. I have included a stable, 'good' economic value for all homes as this fictional town is in a stable and growing area.

Price fluctuates throughout the entire simulation, however it also goes up in price. Over the years houses continue to rise in price while they regularly fluctuate. For example, in 2018 (3 years later), the max price for a home was: $4254.7 and min price was: $852.98. On the other hand, in October 2051 (36 years later), the max price was: $14906 and the min price was: $7661. (This is based on the following data: Houses for Sale: 500, Houses that have sold: 100, Houses in the Market: 730).

SLIDERS

There are 3 sliders on the bottom that could be altered. The simulation would react accordingly. The 3 sliders include changeable data on:

- Houses for Sale.

- Houses that have Sold.

- Houses in the Market.

Real Estate Simulation Assignment - Mitchell Bassil 43290264

Mitchell Bassil

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WIP of Rammelt's 2019 System Dynamics Review Article which has STELLA and Minsky software versions as supplements. Compare with the older IM-2011 version

Simplified Keen Goodwin Minsky Financial Instability model

Geoff McDonnell

3

Enunciado do ploblema do projeto:

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-QIzc4nqMvKdWJLdEZXSzJMTzA/edit?usp=sharing

Perquentas e problemas

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1-e5AFCR_wXCamHt_JJt_j045YCKeQ-woegZT7y3Fe80/edit

simulador economico

https://projetobiomassa.slack.com/messages/C02FPF8GF/files/F59249AKT/

NOME E DESCRIÇÃO

LINK

TAMANHO

Prova1.Investimento Fixo e Tomada de Decisões Rápidas

https://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184101

33 KB

Prova.2.Investimento método Lang

https://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184144

32 KB

Prova 3 Investimento Fixo método Chilton

ihttps://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184169

33 KB

Prova4:Custo Fixo

https://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184189

32 KB

Prova 5:Custo de mao de obra

customaohtm custo de mao de obra

33 KB

Prova 6 Custo de mat,comb e enegia

CustoMat prima , energia

34 KB

Prova 7 Custo total

custo de operacional de producao

33 KB

Prova 8 Ponto deEquilibrio

ponto de eqilibrioibrio

32 KB

Prova 9:Analise de lucro e beneficios

Fluxo de caixa

33 KB

Simulacao e otimizacao economica Miniemporesa

Pagandai V Pannir Selvam

40

This is a reconstruction of the SIMM model presented in Chapter 2 of Feedback Economics (Contemporary Systems Thinking)

@LinkedIn, Twitter, YouTube

Simple Macroeconomic Model (SIMM) (SFD)

Gene Bellinger

9

This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.

It is assumed that the Government intervention is triggered when the COVID-19 case is equal to or more than 10.

Government intervention - lock down the state, suppress the development of COVID-19 effectively. It is related to most of people stay at home to reduce the exposure in public area.

On the other hand, it also bring the economy of Burnie in the recession, as no tourists, no dining out activities and decrease in money spending in the city.

Burnie COVID-19 outbreaks and economic impacts_Pui Chu Daisy Cheung 524767

Pui Chu Daisy Cheung

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World3-03

Mickaël Ringuet

Explanation of the Model

This is a Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania which shows the government actions in response to the pandemic COVID-19 and its affects on the Economy. The government health policy changes depending on the reported cases, which is a dependent upon the testing rate.

Assumptions

Lockdown and travel ban were the main factor in government policy. It negatively impacts on the Economic growth as individuals are not going out which is directly affects the business around the world, in this insight 'Burnie'. This reduces the economic growth and the factors positively effecting economic growth such as Tourism.

Government policies has a negative impact on Exposer of individuals. Moreover, it also has a negative impact on chances of infection when exposed as well as other general infection rate.

Interesting Insight

There is a significant impact of test rating on COVID-19 outbreak. Higher rates increases the government involvement, which decreases cases as well as the total death.

In contrast, lower testing rates increase the death rate and cases.

Tourism which plays a avital role in Tasmanian Economy greatly affects the Economic Growth. The decline of Tourism in parts of Tasmania such as Burnie, would directly decrease the economy of Tasmania.

BMA 708, Assessment Tast 3: Complex System, Burnie COVID-19 outbreak, Diprina Shakya-519673

Diprina Shakya

6

WIP Ideas from Science Special Issue May 2014

The Science of Inequality

Geoff McDonnell

4

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

This Scenario has Affluence decreasing due to Anthropogenic climate change

Final Project 3 W/ Socio-Economic Factors - Temperature Degradation

Geoffrey Alan Chapman

• This model examines how sustainable consumerism is from social, economic, and environmental aspects. The question in focus is "How will our second-hand clothing donations affect communities in developing countries, specifically Kenya?"

5 Stock Variables:

• U.S. Consumers

• Multinational Corporations

• Overseas Factories

• Kenya

Highlight Findings:

To sum up, there are 4 major problems associated to donations:

• 1. Source of problem is the consumer: Cheap deals attract hundreds of millions in revenue for fast fashion, and contribute to 100,000 tonnes of clothing to Kenya annually.

• 2. Rapid consumerism leads to over-utilization of slowly-renewable resources, such as water.

• 3. Nearly 96% of textiles jobs are eradicated by the massive inflow of clothing donations to Kenya.

• 4. The offshoring of textiles jobs enrages U.S. blue-collar workers, leading to the rise of protectionism.

The environmental, social, and economic sustainability aspects of textiles donations

Christina Cheung

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

This Scenario hits Affluence (1% decrease per annum) to increase decarbonization of energy

Final Project 2 W/ Socio-Economic Factors - Reinvestment Scenario

Geoffrey Alan Chapman

lab 13 Social and economic

Finn Allred

Structure of model in Nathan Forrester's 1983 MIT Thesis comprising 4 models

Macroeconomics System Dynamics Nathan Forrester

Geoff McDonnell

3 7 months ago

Initial Stock & Flow of Energy Infrastructure Development, Climate Change Impacts, and Economic Activity

Victoria Yanco

3

Peak oil occurs not when there are no more reserves, but when it is too expensive to bring them to the surface. The diagram describes a dynamic where peak oil leads to oil prices that are too low for oil companies to produce oil. There are two keys to understand this counterintuitive situation. First, it is important to realize that without energy (oil) no economic activity can take place. Second, when supplies of oil become scarce, non-elite workers - because of the contraction of the economy - will lose their jobs or suffer salary cuts. This will make goods containing (or using) oil products too expensive for the masses. Demand for those products (most things on the market) will decline and with it demand for oil - oil prices will drop too low for oil companies to produce oil!

These ideas stem from Gail Tverberg's blog: 'Our Finite World'. https://ourfiniteworld.com/

PEAK OIL LEADS TO LOW OIL PRICES

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Simple epidemiological model for Burnie, Tasmania

SIR: Susceptible to infection - Infected - Recovery, Government responses and Economic impacts

Government policy is activated when there are 10 or fewer reported cases of COVID-19. The more people tested, the fewer people became infected. So the government's policy is to reduce infections by increasing the number of people tested and starting early. At the same time, it has slowed the economic growth (which, according to the model, will stop for next 52 weeks).

Model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania (Yue Xiang 512994)

Yue Xiang

5

a concept map describing the interactions between global EV market size (in annual revenues) and several market parameters, PESTEL factors, 5+1 forces, and/or other factors

Tesla

seva.2063

Plan for CCP project completion see IM-102242 for WIP detail of the structures of the related models

CCP Project Scope Deliverables and Extensions

Geoff McDonnell

3

Farmers use intensive pesticides to harvest cotton, which is harmful to not only the health of the farmers using them, but also our environment as it pollutes rivers and groundwater that negatively interfere with the ecosystem. Even though these farmers know of the health and environmental risks, they still use harmful pesticides to produce cotton, but why is this so. This stock and flow map should explain what impacts farmers to use pesticides to grow cotton despite the risks and explain the cause and effect relationship their use has on the cotton industry and the environment.

According to Clevo Wilson and Clem Tisdell article, "Why farmer continue to use pesticides despite environmental, health and sustainable costs,"

Pesticide use by farmers:

"used to reduce yield losses to pests"
"avoid economic losses to ensure economical survival"
"increase supply market and reduce market prices"
"ignorance of sustainable use"
"integral part of commercially grow high yielding varieties so without use, high yields may not be sustained"
"damage to agriculture land from the use occurs over long period of time so costs may not look serious short term, but reduces economic welfare in long term"
"environmental damage: pollutes rivers and groundwater, destroys beneficial predators and interferes with ecosystem overall"
"health risks underestimated"
"chemical companies selling it have incentive to push their use by advertising and promotion" (1,9).

Farmer Pesticide Use On Cotton

Neilah

WIP based on Bill mitchell's blogs.

Sectoral balances are relationships among money flows during an accounting period. Where we perceive accumulations of past imbalances to be accrued is another matter....

MMT Fiscal position

Geoff McDonnell

3

WIP Clone of Conceptualizing Capitalism Insight to summarise Thorstein Veblen's writings on the Nature of Capital and other Institutional economics concepts

Veblen Nature of Capital

Geoff McDonnell

4

About the Model

This model is a dynamic model which explains the relationship between the police of the government and the economy situation in Burnie Tasmania after the outbreak of Corona Virus.

This model is based on SIR model, which explains the dynamic reflection between the people who were susceptible, infected,deaths and recovered.

Assumptions

This model assumes that when the Covid-19 positive is equal or bigger than 10, the government policy can be triggered. This model assumes that the shopping rate in retail shops and the dining rates in the restaurants can only be influenced by the government policy.

Interesting Insights

The government police can have negative influence on the infection process, as it reduced the possibility of people get infected in the public environments. The government policy has a negative effect on shopping rate in retail shops and the dining rate in the restaurants.

However, the government policy would cause negative influence on economy. As people can not shopping as normal they did, and they can not dinning in the restaurants. The retail selling growth rate and restaurant revenue growth rate would be reduced, and the economic situation would go worse.

Corona virus outbreak in Burnie Tasmania (Xuexiao Zhang 538712)

Xuexiao Zhang

This model bases on the SIR model aims to indicate the relationship between the lockdown policy of the government for combating with COVID-19 and the economic activity in Burnie Tasmania during the pandemic.

This model assumes that more COVID-19 cases will lead to the more serious lockdown policy of the local government, which indirectly affect the economic activities and economic growth. The primary reason is that the lockdown policy force people to stay at home and reduce the chance to work and consume.

The simulation trend of the model is that the economy will keep a steady increase when the serious government policy reduces the COVID-19 spreading speed rate.

COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie model by LUJIN 517217

LU JIN