From Jay Forrester 1988 killian lectures youtube video describing system dynamics at MIT. For Concepts See IM-185226. For more detailed biography See Jay Forrester memorial webpage For MIT HIstory see IM-184930

This Model was developed from the SEIR Model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered) and it predicts the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. This pandemic outbreak contributes to diverse rates including infection rate, death rates and recovery rate, government policies and its economic impacts.    

Assumptions:

 This model is driven by its determined rates, e.g., incubation rate, morality rate, test rate and immunity loss rate and its recovery rate.

Government policies are involved in fully vaccination rate, social distance, national border closure, travel, and business restriction which effect Burnie’s economy.

There are three economic entities dimensions in Burnie Island, we can tell that the pandemic has negative impact on Brick-and-Mortar enterprises and tourism business to some extent, whereas, e commercial business plays a crucial role to stimulate the regional economic activities during the COVID-19 period.

 

Interesting Insights:

 The figure of susceptible changes significantly during the initial 3 weeks because of low recovery rate and high infection rate. On the other hand, the implementation and interventions of government policies is effective, because the number of patients who tested negative is increased and the majority of them release and go back home after medical follow-up. 

Based on System Zoo EZ412D, EZ411, EZ412A.

This is an evolving attempt to illustrate the interconnected nature of the economic assets of Roswell - Chaves County

This simple model describes wealth accumulation. The value in income is described by the following simple equation:

This model shows the operation of a simple economy. It demonstrates the effect of changes in the fractional rate of consumption (or the converse, the fractional rate of saving.) It also, unlike Models 2 & 3, shows the influence Savings has on the production rate.

In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of both production and consumption in the long-run.

Plan for CCP project completion see IM-102242  for WIP detail of the structures of the related models

Implementation of the Solow model of economic growth with labor enhancing technology.

parameters: s, alpha, delta, n, gA
variables: Y. K, L, C, A
per capita variables: y, k, c, a
per capita and technology variables: y~, k~, c~
steady state variables: y~*, k~*, c~*
all variables come with relative growth rates g

Features:

+steady state from beginning
+one time labor shock
+permanent savings quote shock
+permanent technological growth rate shock

Decreasing steady state variables when starting in steady state are numeric artifacts.

Eastern oyster growth model calibrated for Long Island Sound
Developed and implemented by Joao G. Ferreira and Camille Saurel; growth data from Eva Galimany, Gary Wickfors, and Julie Rose; driver data from Julie Rose and Suzanne Bricker; Culture practice from the REServ team and Tessa Getchis. This model is a workbench for combining ecological and economic components for REServ. Economic component added by Trina Wellman.

This is a one box model for an idealized farm with one million oysters seeded (one hectare @ a stocking density of 100 oysters per square meter)

1. Run WinShell individual growth model for one year with Long Island Sound growth drivers;

2. Determine the scope for growth (in dry tissue weight per day) for oysters centered on the five weight classes)
 
3. Apply a classic population dynamics equation:

dn(s,t)/dt = -d[n(s,t)g(s,t)]/ds - u(s)n(s,t)

s: Weight (g)
t: Time
n: Number of individuals of weight s
g: Scope for growth (g day-1)
u: Mortality rate (day-1)

4. Set mortality at 30% per year, slider allows scenarios from 30% to 80% per year

5. Determine harvestable biomass, i.e. weight class 5, 40-50 g (roughly three inches length)

What we can learn from a child?  

Everything! 

I certainly learned everything after one day spent judging high school students who researched the industrial impacts on planet and people in under-developed parts of the world.  

Students are supported by an industry advisory board who funds and staffs the two regional events. I was one of the IAB members representing Parents at Large.

The program has a parent, teacher and works with students from 5th grade to high school graduation ensuring and advocating students are attending the courses required for a four year university in STEM subjects.  Underperforming schools and districts randomly assign courses without regard for A-G requirements.  Parents have no way to dispute nor are they aware of the systemic challenges faced by districts serving low income students. Even if students get into the right courses, they are often not scheduled to take the SAT test (another university entrance requirement).  Even advanced course students are not guaranteed they will be registered.  

MESA Program statistics indicate many participants had the criteria to go into a 4 year university.  Only a small percentage actually enrolled.  One point of failure in these dismal outcomes pertains to the high school administration practice which only submits a small group for SAT Testing.  Eliminating the remainder of eager students, with this one decision destroying the hopes and dreams of low income students.  "You weren't submitted for the SAT, because you need to attend Community College" statement made to several advanced placement students. These students worked for years as participants in the MESA Program, completing annual robotics projects from grade 5 into their senior year of high school.                                                                                                            Our future leaders could benefit from a different approach to higher education.  Why is different so important?  The point of failure mentioned above, is a systemic failure caused by failures in equality.  The higher crime and homelessness are two direct outcomes or opportunities we can reverse if we allow students in our hardest to reach communities to earn a Six Sigma belt path in experience based learning.  Replicate the MESA Schools projects in all hard to reach populations.  Partnering Universities, public and private sector organizations financing the development of shared service centers.   

Our youth have great potential and passion for understanding problems effecting their environments whether social, economic or cultural.  

The only thing missing in today's contestants "having the access to accurate information which they can decipher into knowledge and the means to experience corrective action which should result in value based wisdom gained from experience."

Ideally, the wisdom shared in a free online visualization tool would be a means to leverage work done by academics and system thinkers.  Progressive educators are using this tool to debate various topics of importance all over the world.  

See debategraph

Climate change

http://debategraph.org/Stream.aspx?nid=610&vt=spacetree&dc=focus

Planet under pressure

http://debategraph.org/planet

London agenda on cyberspace

http://debategraph.org/Stream.aspxnid=121532&vt=spacetree&dc=focus

Prosperity without growth

http://debategraph.org/Stream.aspx?nid=32883&vt=spacetree&dc=focu

Thank you to all the students who allowed me to judge their wonderful speeches.  It was a crash course in work I shared with LinkedIn group "System Thinking World" using Insight Maker.  

This is an interface to explore UK-SSP2.

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Goodwin cycle IM-2010 with debt and taxes added, modified from Steve Keen's illustration of Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis "stability begets instability". This can be extended by adding the Ponzi effect of borrowing for speculative investment.

This model shows the operation of a simple economy with two modifications made to Model 2 -- 1) feedback from production rate to consumption rate and 2) the use of a fractional rate input for calculating consumption rate. 

In summary, lower fractional rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher levels of Savings.

Smithian growth model from Michael Joffe Fig. 3.7 p57 Ch3 Feedback Economics Book

This model demonstrate how the exisitng tested COVID cases effects economic recovery via goverment intervenes.

This model shows the operation of an extremely simple economy. The system produces and consumes each item (or good) at a fixed rate.

When production exceeds consumption, consumer goods accumulate in stocks. Trading may occur between actors in this system. That will not, however, affect the quantities of the stocks of goods. It only affects ownership (not a concern of this model.)

WIP Summary of Miller 2015 PCD article for the Compelling Case for Prevention Project Scoping Study.

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

HANDY Model of Societal Collapse from Ecological Economics Paper