Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Implementation of a DSGE Model solved in a Macroeconomics class by Harald Uhlig (link), using Rational Expectations, in this case, the Hansens Real Business Cycle Model.

Peak oil occurs not when there are no more reserves, but when it is too expensive to bring them to the surface. The diagram describes a dynamic where peak oil leads to oil prices that are too low for oil companies to produce oil. There are two keys to understand this counterintuitive situation. First, it is important to realize that without energy (oil) no economic activity can take place. Second, when supplies of oil become scarce, non-elite workers  - because of the contraction of the economy - will lose their jobs or suffer salary cuts. This will make goods containing (or using) oil products too expensive for the masses. Demand for those products (most things on the market) will decline and with it demand for oil - oil prices will drop too low for oil companies to produce oil!

These ideas stem from Gail Tverberg's blog: 'Our Finite World'. https://ourfiniteworld.com/

IASAM

CLD exposition of Goodwin01 from Steve Keen's August 2019 course on Introduction to Economic Dynamics and Minsky software See video and powerpoint slides. Based on IM-2011 Minsky FIH and IM-168865 MacroEconomics CLDs. SeeIM-172005 for Simulation

Clone of Wagdy Samir Macroeconomics work in progress IM-901 Additions and deletions based on Robert Skidelsky's description of Keynes general THeory from his Biography Vol2 p 549 -571

The recent moratorium on deep-sea drilling will reduce the supply of oil. But the world-wide trend is an ever increasing demand for it. This simple CLD  tries to illustrate the dampening effect on demand and on economic activity of diminishing oil supplies and of rising prices: oil prices  affect virtually all products and especially agricultural production. As it becomes more and more difficult to extract oil, prices must rise. At the moment the global recession counteracts this effect, but the recession will not last forever. Is it too early to speak of Peak Oil?

The complex model reflects the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. The model explains how the COVID-19 outbreak will influence the government policies and economic impacts. The infected population will be based on how many susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals in Burnie. It influences the probability of infected population meeting with susceptible individuals.

The fatality rate will be influenced by the elderly population and pre-existing medical conditions. Even though individuals can recover from COVID-19 disease, some of them will have immunity loss and become part of the susceptible individuals, or they will be diagnosed with long term illnesses (mental and physical). Thus, these variables influence the number of confirmed cases in Burnie and the implementation of government policies.

The government policies depend on the confirmed COVID-19 cases. The government policies include business restrictions, lock down, vaccination and testing rate. These variables have negative impacts on the infection of COVID-19 disease. However, these policies have some negative effects on commercial industry and positive effects on e-commerce and medical industry. These businesses growth rate can influence the economic growth of Burnie with the economic

Most of the variables are adjustable with the slider provided below. They can be adjusted from 0 to 1, which illustrates the percentages associated with the specific variables. They can also be adjusted to three decimal points, i.e., from 0.1 to 0.001.

Assumptions

- The maximum population of Burnie is 20000.
- The maximum number of infected individuals is 100.
- Government policies are triggered when the COVID-19 cases reach 10 or above.
- The government policies include business restrictions, lock down, vaccination and testing rates only. Other policies are not being considered under this model.
- The vaccination policy implemented by the government is compulsory.
- The testing rate is set by the government. The slider should not be changed unless the testing rate is adjusted by the government.
- The fatality rate is influenced by the elderly population and pre-existing medical conditions only. Other factors are not being considered under this model.
- People who recovered from COVID-19 disease will definitely suffer form immunity loss or any other long term illnesses.
- Long term illnesses include mental illnesses and physical illnesses only. Other illnesses are not being considered under this model.
- Economic activities are provided with an assumption value of 1000.
- The higher the number of COVID-19 cases, the more negative impact they have on the economy of Burnie. 

Interesting Insights

A higher recovery rate can decrease the number of COVID-19 cases as well as the probability of infected population meeting with susceptible persons, but it takes longer for the economy to recover compared to a lower recovery rate. A higher recovery rate can generate a larger number of people diagnosed with long term illnesses.

Testing rate triggers multiple variables, such as government policies, positive cases, susceptible and infected individuals. A lower testing rate can decrease the COVID-19 confirmed cases, but it can increase the number of susceptible people. And a higher testing rate can trigger the implementation of government policies, thus decreasing the infection rate. As the testing rate has a strong correlation with the government policies, it can also influence the economy of Burnie. 

Explanation of the Model

Like Model 6 this model shows the operation of a simple economy. It demonstrates the effect of changes in the fractional rate of consumption (or the converse the fractional rate of saving.)

In summary, government "spending" tends to slow growth of production and consumption.

Multiscale view of Combined PH and Economic Views IM 70763  in preparation for integrating with Prevention Investment Framework (private) IM

not a mathematical model. just a general one

This simple model describes wealth accumulation. The value in income is described by the following simple equation:

Tesla pestel Analysis

Adam Smith's The Invisible Hand: The Feedback Structure of Markets. From Sterman JD Business Dynamics p170 Fig 5-26. A price-mediated resource allocation system..

A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

Buying and storing electricity when it is cheap, and selling it when it is expensive. What are the benefits, both public and private?

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Butterfly Effect
Sensitivity To Initial Conditions
(sensitive dependence on initial conditions)
Navier Stokes Equations
Lorenz Attractor
Chaos Theory, Disorder and Entropy



If M is the state space for the map , then  displays sensitive dependence to initial conditions if for any x in M and any δ > 0, there are y in M, with  such that