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Clone of Pesticide Use in Central America for Lab work


This model is an attempt to simulate what is commonly referred to as the “pesticide treadmill” in agriculture and how it played out in the cotton industry in Central America after the Second World War until around the 1990s.

The cotton industry expanded dramatically in Central America after WW2, increasing from 20,000 hectares to 463,000 in the late 1970s. This expansion was accompanied by a huge increase in industrial pesticide application which would eventually become the downfall of the industry.

The primary pest for cotton production, bol weevil, became increasingly resistant to chemical pesticides as they were applied each year. The application of pesticides also caused new pests to appear, such as leafworms, cotton aphids and whitefly, which in turn further fuelled increased application of pesticides. 

The treadmill resulted in massive increases in pesticide applications: in the early years they were only applied a few times per season, but this application rose to up to 40 applications per season by the 1970s; accounting for over 50% of the costs of production in some regions. 

The skyrocketing costs associated with increasing pesticide use were one of the key factors that led to the dramatic decline of the cotton industry in Central America: decreasing from its peak in the 1970s to less than 100,000 hectares in the 1990s. “In its wake, economic ruin and environmental devastation were left” as once thriving towns became ghost towns, and once fertile soils were wasted, eroded and abandoned (Lappe, 1998). 

Sources: Douglas L. Murray (1994), Cultivating Crisis: The Human Cost of Pesticides in Latin America, pp35-41; Francis Moore Lappe et al (1998), World Hunger: 12 Myths, 2nd Edition, pp54-55.

REM 221 - Causal Loop diagramming
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Adapted from Hartmut Bossel's "System Zoo 3 Simulation Models, Economy, Society, Development."

​Population model where the population is summarized in four age groups (children, parents, older people, old people). Used as a base population model for dealing with issues such as employment, care for the elderly, pensions dynamics, etc.
Z602 Population with four age groups
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mft | vertical integration
4 months ago
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Eastern oyster growth model calibrated for Long Island Sound
Developed and implemented by Joao G. Ferreira and Camille Saurel; growth data from Eva Galimany, Gary Wickfors, and Julie Rose; driver data from Julie Rose and Suzanne Bricker; Culture practice from the REServ team and Tessa Getchis. This model is a workbench for combining ecological and economic components for REServ. Economic component added by Trina Wellman.

This is a one box model for an idealized farm with one million oysters seeded (one hectare @ a stocking density of 100 oysters per square meter)

1. Run WinShell individual growth model for one year with Long Island Sound growth drivers;

2. Determine the scope for growth (in dry tissue weight per day) for oysters centered on the five weight classes)
 
3. Apply a classic population dynamics equation:

dn(s,t)/dt = -d[n(s,t)g(s,t)]/ds - u(s)n(s,t)

s: Weight (g)
t: Time
n: Number of individuals of weight s
g: Scope for growth (g day-1)
u: Mortality rate (day-1)

4. Set mortality at 30% per year, slider allows scenarios from 30% to 80% per year

5. Determine harvestable biomass, i.e. weight class 5, 40-50 g (roughly three inches length)
REServ Eastern oyster ecology and economics Long Island Sound
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The upper diagram shows the principal factors that have an influence on the budget deficit and indicates what needs to be done to correct it. But this is not the full story. The diagram below shows that  cutting public expenditure reduces aggregate demand and  increases unemployment. The reduction of aggregate demand  reduces  economic activity which has the effect of reducing  tax revenue.  In addition, the state has to pay out funds as there is a need for more unemployment benefit payments.   The result of these austerity measures  is often the opposite of their intended purpose: they can increase rather than decrease the budget deficit.

There is plenty of empiric evidence to show that this has happened time and time again. For instance, a report from UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) found that between 1990 and 2000 in all the  cases examined where cutbacks in public spending and tax increases were used, the fiscal situation did not only not improve but worsened. Despite such repeated evidence, unfortunately calls for  austerity measures continue to be heard. 

Fallacy of Spending Cuts
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LS Greenway
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This model shows the operation of a simple economy with two modifications made to Model 2 -- 1) feedback from production rate to consumption rate and 2) the use of a fractional rate input for calculating consumption rate. 

In summary, lower fractional rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher levels of Savings.
Simple Economy: Model 3
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MODERN MONETARY THEORY SHOWS HOW FULL EMPLOYMENT CAN BE ACHIEVED!

POTENTIAL GDP is a level of overall spending - by the government and the non-government sector - at which there is full employment. If the economy is not operating at its potential, then the  private sector has failed to invested or spend enough to generate the necessary growth nor has income  from net exports contributed enough. This only leaves the government to close the spending gap. Conceptually, a government disposing of its own freely floating currency could act using two powerful tools -  spending in excess of tax revenue, and taxation - to ensure that the gap between the actual economic activity and potential GDP is quickly closed. Achieving the  full employment that prevailed for 30 years between 1945 and 1975 in western economies is definitely possible! 

MANAGING FULL EMPLOYMENT
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GSGS_HW2_GREENING_THE_GHETTO
3 4 weeks ago
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Brief Summary of Albert O Hirschman's Book
The Passions and the Interests
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This is a protoype of the bahai high level economic model in accordance to the bahai-economic principles.
Bahai high level economic model
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Plan for CCP project completion see IM-102242  for WIP detail of the structures of the related models
CCP Project Scope Deliverables and Extensions
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nuclear_economic
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Untitled Insight
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Introduction:
This simulation model demonstrates the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie, Tasmania and how the corresponding government’s responses affect the spreading of Covid-19. Meanwhile, this model also shows how the economy in Burnie is influenced by the impacts of both Covid-19 and government policies.

Variables: 
This simulation contains some relevant variables as follow:

Variables in Covid-19 outbreaks: (1) Infection rate, (2) Recovery rate, (3) Death rate, (4) Immunity loss rate

Variables in Government policies: (1) Vaccination rate, (2) Lockdown, (3) Travel ban, (4)Quarantine

Variables in Economy: (1) E-commerce business, (2) Unemployment rate, (3) Economic growth rate.

Assumption:
Government responses would be triggered when reported Covid-19 cases are at least 10.

The government policies reduce the spreading of Covid-19, but they would also limit economic development at the same time due to the negative impact of the policies on the economy is greater than the positive impact.

The increase in reported Covid-19 cases would negatively affect economic growth.

Interesting Insights:
The first finding is that the death number would keep increasing even though the infection rate has decreased, but with stronger government policies (such as implementing a coefficient over 25%), no more death numbers will occur caused by Covid-19.

The second finding is that as government policies limit business activities, with the increasing number of reported Covid-19 cases, economic growth will suffer a severe blow even if e-commerce grows, it can’t make up for this economic loss.
BMA 708 assignment 3 - simulation model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania
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Commercial aviation economic activity in the EU
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WIP Exttension of IM-172005 Simulation of Goodwin01 Minsky Model. Compare with Part3 slide 5 of presentation in patreon

Goodwin02 Minsky Simulation Keen Economic Dynamics Aug2019
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​Farmers use intensive pesticides to harvest cotton, which is harmful to not only the health of the farmers using them, but also our environment as it pollutes rivers and groundwater that negatively interfere with the ecosystem. Even though these farmers know of the health and environmental risks, they still use harmful pesticides to produce cotton, but why is this so. This stock and flow map should explain what impacts farmers to use pesticides to grow cotton despite the risks and explain the cause and effect relationship their use has on the cotton industry and the environment.
According to Clevo Wilson and Clem Tisdell article, "Why farmer continue to use pesticides despite environmental, health and sustainable costs,"

Pesticide use by farmers:
  • "used to reduce yield losses to pests"
  • "avoid economic losses to ensure economical survival"
  • "increase supply market and reduce market prices"
  • "ignorance of sustainable use"
  • "integral part of commercially grow high yielding varieties so without use, high yields may not be sustained"
  • "damage to agriculture land from the use occurs over long period of time so costs may not look serious short term, but reduces economic welfare in long term"
  • "environmental damage: pollutes rivers and groundwater, destroys beneficial predators and interferes with ecosystem overall"
  • "health risks underestimated"
  • "chemical companies selling it have incentive to push their use by advertising and promotion" (1,9).
Farmer Pesticide Use On Cotton
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WIP based on Bill mitchell's blogs. 
Sectoral balances are relationships among money flows during an accounting period. Where we perceive accumulations of past imbalances to be accrued is another matter....
MMT Fiscal position
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Based on the SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model of disease, this is an upgraded model with more specifc vaeriables.
Insights:
When the growth rate and the number of the recovered is much larger than deaths, the economic activity remain steady growing.
Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania
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This is to support a discussion on money flows and growth. Money as a lubricant for the flow of embodied energy in human systems.
See also A Prosperous Way Down website
Odum Money and Energy Flows
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VA - socio-economic
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Buying and storing electricity when it is cheap, and selling it when it is expensive. What are the benefits, both public and private?

Smart Grid: Electricity storage and variable energy pricing
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ABOUT THE MODEL

This is a dynamic model that shows the correlation between the health-related policies implemented by the Government in response to COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania, and the policies’ impact on the Economic activity of the area.

 ASSUMPTIONS

The increase in the number of COVID-19 cases is directly proportional to the increase in the Government policies in the infected region. The Government policies negatively impact the economy of Burnie, Tasmania.

INTERESTING INSIGHTS

1. When the borders are closed by the government, the economy is severely affected by the decrease of revenue generated by the Civil aviation/Migration rate. As the number of COVID-19 cases increase, the number of people allowed to enter Australian borders will also decrease by the government. 

2. The Economic activity sharply increases and stays in uniformity. 

3. The death rate drastically decreased as we increased test rate by 90%.


COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania (Rajaa Sajjad, 538837)