Based on G.P. Cimellaro et al. Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 3639–3649 paper

When people talk about a government deficit, they forget that this is only one side of the ledger. On the other is a corresponding non-government SURPLUS. The money the government spends is not lost but shows up in the private sector as income. When one talks only of the deficit then one can understand that many think it should be reduced or even converted into a surplus, but reducing the government deficit reduces private sector income and a government surplus forces a deficit on the private sector with a potentially devastating effect on private sector wealth and economic activity.  Unless the economy is overheating, government deficits are usually healthy. For countries that run traditionally a trade deficit, such as the US they are necessary to maintain economic activity. Consider this fact: for almost all of past 40 years the US and the UK have run deficits without any harmful effects!

Explanation of the Model

A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?

This is a protoype of the bahai high level economic model in accordance to the bahai-economic principles.

Tesla pestel Analysis

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Irving Fisher's Debt Deflation Theory from Michael Joffe Fig. 3.4 p54 Ch3 Feedback Economics Book with Private Credit Inflation boom added to the  bust cycles

Structure of model in Nathan Forrester's 1983 MIT Thesis comprising 4 models

A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?

This Insight is used for simulating growth of a company with specified parameters.

A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

Model description: 

This model is designed to simulate the Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania by estimating several factors such as exposed population, infection rate, testing rate, recovery rate, death rate and immunity loss. The model also simulates the measures implemented by the government which will impact on the local infection and economy. 

 

Assumption:

Government policies will reduce the mobility of the population as well as the infection. In addition, economic activities in the tourism and hospitality industry will suffer negative influences from the government measures. However, essential businesses like supermarkets will benefit from the health policies on the contrary.

 

Variables:

Infection rate, recovery rate, death rate, testing rate are the variables to the cases of Covid-19. On the other hand, the number of cases is also a variable to the government policies, which directly influences the number of exposed. 

 

The GDP is dependent on the variables of economic activities. Nonetheless, the government’s lockdown measure has also become the variable to the economic activities. 

 

Interesting insights:

Government policies are effective to curb infection by reducing the number of exposed when the case number is greater than 10. The economy becomes stagnant when the case spikes up but it climbs up again when the number of cases is under control. 

WIP SD REpresentation of Steve Keen's BOMD Minsky model (described in Fig.5 of his patreon Jan2021 Draft New Economics Manifesto) to hope to make the causal structure clearer

Book summary of Albert O Hirschman's 1982 book, explaining cycles of collective public action.

Based on chapter 14 of Modeling Dynamic Economic Systems