When we're trying to understand a situation it is often very helpful to have a sense of the historical trends of several dimensions relevant to the situation.
Investigating the behavior of several variables over time has probably raised more questions than answers. As such now it's time to investigate what else might be influencing the trending of these variables.
Use a bathtub model to investigate the manner in which inflows and outflows govern the quantity of a stock. Extend the structure to create and investigate the relationships of a goal seeking balancing loop.
Developing a strategy for dealing with a situation begins with a description of the situation and the preferred state for today, not in some distant future, and the perceived implications of not doing anything.
Bathtub model with filling control added. Running the model is essentially considered to be turning on the faucet and water will run into the bathtub until it is full.
The limits to results structure endeavors to bring a balance between a current state and a desired state though more often than not the action is limited by some constraint. See also Archetypes.
Success to the successful archetype represents two reinforcing structures which may be in a delicate balance though as soon as one gains a small advantage the resource allocation favors the more successful and the result is then rapidly skewed in the direction of the more successful. See also Archetypes.
While understanding the interacting components responsible for the situation is important it is even more important to understand the stakeholders as they are the ones responsible for the interacting components being the way they are.
It's relatively well understood that you can't be all things to all people. Somewhere one has to make choices. An Attractiveness Principle Systems Archetype is essentially a Limits to Growth Systems Archetype with multiple limits, all of which can not be addressed equally.
The model starts in 1900. In the year 2000 you get the chance to set a new emission target and nominal time to reach it. Your aim is to have atmospheric CO2 stabilize at about 400 ppmv in 2100. From Sterman, John D. (2008) Risk Communication on Climate: Mental Models and Mass Balance. Science 322 (24 October): 532-533.
This model is an attempt to understand the interactions within an economy in an attempt to determine where the leverage points are to stimulate an economy.
Causal loop diagrams are more rigorous than rich pictures though are still only contain a very few elements with well defined rules for connecting them.
