Counterfactual views are claims or beliefs that are
contrary to established facts. Such views can be extremely harmful. An example would be the false
claims made by climate-change-deniers. This simple graph of two
self-reinforcing loops illustrates that there are circumstances where such false
beliefs strengthen once a sufficiently large number have accepted them. The
mechanism, well documented by research in cognitive psychology, is frequent repetition,
which makes such false messages appear ever more familiar and to take on an air
of factual truth.
An effective leverage point would be for newspapers and TV station
simply to deny to authors that want to spread counterfactual views access to their
platforms. Whilst everybody has the right
to express their opinion, does anybody have the right to invent their own facts
in an attempt to undermine general well-being?
The fact
that we all strive to reduce psychologically inconsistent thoughts is a well-researched phenomenon. When we hold
two conflicting thoughts in our heads we feel an overwhelming desire to reduce
this conflict. This desire can be a powerful driver in the way we behave. Most
of us are aware at some level that if we took the threat of climate change
seriously we would need to completely change our routines and the way we behave.
Flying off on holiday would be out of the question. Swimming pools would be a
past luxury. Most of us would need to give up our cars and become vegetarians.
The list can be extended almost endlessly. Very often, subconsciously, we try
to reduce troubling and inconvenient facts by minimizing, ignoring or even by denying
them. Could this be why we hardly talk about climate change even in the face of
increasingly frequent extreme weather events and obvious signs that it is
occurring now?
This subject
needs to be openly talked about between us and in the press. The seriousness of global warming makes it a necessity.
Only when this happens will politicians have the space and incentive to
act on our behalf. But before this can happen we need to be aware of the reason
why we avoid talking about this subject – this graph tries to illustrate the
harmful dynamic that could be responsible for it.
