A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania.  Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

A pest known as a grape-leaf hopper can cause considerable losses in vineyards. Periodically it was found that a natural parasite, anagrus epos, drastically reduced the size of the hopper population. This, in turn, led to a reduction in food (hoppers) available to the parasite and the parasite population declined until the hopper population increased again. This cycle would repeat.It was found that the parasite, anagrus epos, also feeds on a non-pest leaf hopper which feeds on blackberries. By planting small patches of wild blackberries in the vineyards, the growers were able to maintain a stable parasite population that was large enough to control population explosions of both leaf hoppers.

Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation.  Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function.  Repeat (A) & (B).

A Conveyor is essentially an infinite order exponential delay.  This insight illustrates how increasing the order of an exponential delay begins to approximate a conveyor.  The 10th order delay very closely aligns to the Delay 10 Conveyor.

Foxes birth rate  is decrease by 50%

A Conveyor is an infinite order exponential delay.  This insight illustrates how increasing the order of an exponential delay begins to approximate a conveyor.

From the 1988 killian lecture youtube video For more detailed biography See Jay Forrester memorial webpage For concepts and applications see IM-185226

Overview 

A simple model simulates the conflict between adventure tourism (mountain biking) and logging in Derby, Tasmania. It demonstrates how these industries co-exist and in what circumstances would affect the interests of both parties. 

How does the model work? 

The demand for mountain biking came from visitors' enjoyment of nature and desire for scenery. Adventure is driven by the excitement of visitors with their experience and friends' recommendations.  

The demand for timber leads to the amount of logging, and its price per log impacts forest revenue. It brought employment opportunities to the local residents in Derby Mountain. The excessive deforestation affects landscapes and scenery, so regrowth is essential. 

Interesting Insights 

The major rebate is reducing park spaces will degrade visitors' experience of enjoyment with nature. Still, at the same time, logging brings significant business benefits to the local residents.  The environmental effect of being well-managed between mountain bikes and logging needs to be depth-explored and balanced. 

Visão geral

O modelo mostra a conexão e o conflito da indústria entre o turismo florestal e o turismo de montanha em Derby, Tasmânia. O objetivo desta simulação é descobrir o ponto de equilíbrio para a coexistência.

Como funciona o modelo?

Ambas as indústrias podem fornecer contribuições económicas para a Tasmânia. Em primeiro lugar, a venda de madeira através da exploração madeireira geraria renda. Além disso, os gastos dos ciclistas de montanha gerariam renda. No entanto, a baixa taxa de regeneração das árvores não pode encobrir a exploração madeireira, o que influencia as belas vistas e as experiências dos ciclistas. Embora a satisfação e a expectativa dependam das opiniões e da experiência, a demanda pelo mountain bike também seria influenciada pelas visitas repetidas e pelo boca a boca.

Informações interessantes

Embora a silvicultura possa fornecer uma grande contribuição económica para a Tasmânia, o excesso de exploração madeireira vai contra a estrutura ESG, além de criar conflito com o turismo de montanha. Desde que o número de visitas de cavaleiros seja estável, o turismo pode sempre proporcionar uma maior contribuição económica em comparação com a silvicultura. Portanto, o governo deveria considerar o ponto de equilíbrio entre as duas indústrias.

From Jay Forrester 1988 killian lectures youtube video describing system dynamics at MIT. For more detailed biography See Jay Forrester memorial webpage For MIT HIstory see IM-184930 For Applications se IM-185462

Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation.  Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function.  Repeat (A) & (B).

Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation.  Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function.  Repeat (A) & (B).

Overview

A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania. 

How the model works:

Trees grow, and we cut them down because of the demand for Timber and sell the logs. Mountain bikers and holiday visitors will come to the park and this depends on experience and recommendations.  Past experience and recommendations depend on the Scenery, number of trees compared to the visitor and Adventure number of trees and users.  Park capacity limits the number of users.  To utilize highest park capacity, they need to promote to the holiday visitor segment as well. Again, the visit depends on the scenery. So, both mountain biking and forestry (logging) businesses need to contribute a significant amount of revenue to CSR for faster regrowth of trees.

Interesting insights

It looks like a lot of logging doesn't stop people from mountain biking. 

Faster replantation of the tree will balance out the impact created by logging which will give the visitor a positive experience and the number of visitors is both improved. 

To keep the park's popularity in check, the price of wood needs to be high. 

Also, it looks like mountain biking only needs a narrow path.

CSR contribution to nature can be a crucial factor. 

Foxes initial population is doubled

Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation.  Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function.  Repeat (A) & (B).

A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania.  Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

Rabits birth rate  is decrease 50%