This model describes phosphorus cycling in a dune-lake system in the Northland region of New Zealand. It is based on stock and flow diagrams where each orange oval represents an input, while each blue box represents a stock. Each arrow represents a flow. Flows involve a loss from the stock at which they start and add to the stock at which they end.
Clone of Clone of Story of phosphorus dynamics in a shallow lake
From science Dec 2106 article showing a CLD diagram
Lake fish regime shift
A model of an infectious disease and control
Clone of Disease Dynamics (Agent Based Modeling)
•Wet
Period Case
–30
years of historical wet period on record (1974-2004)-including wettest years on
record 1974-1983.
–Represents
the wet period case
–Corresponds
to wet cycle of AMO
Clone of EA wet conditions 1974-2004
Primary production model with phytoplankton as a state variable, force by light and nutrients. Model expanded to include bivalves.
PhytOster 3
Challenges in sustainability are multilevel.
This diagram attempts to summarize levels of self reinforcing destructive dynamics, authors that deal with them, and point of leverage for change.
The base of the crisis is a mechanistic rather than ecological worldview. This mechanistic worldview is based on outdated science that assumed the universe to be a large machine. In a machine there is an inside and an outside. The health of the inside is important for the machine, the outside not. In an ecological view everything is interconnected, there is no clear separation in the future of self and other. All parts influence the health of other parts. To retain health sensitivity and democracy are inherent. The sense of separation from other that keeps the mechanistic worldview dominant is duality. Being cut off from spiritual traditions due to a mechanistic view of science people need access to inter-spirituality to reconnect with the human traditions and tools around connectedness, inner discovery, and compassion. Many books on modern physics and biology deal with the system view implications. "The coming interspiritual age" deals with the need to connect spiritual traditions and science.
At the bottom for the dynamic is an individual a sense of disconnectedness leads to a dependency on spending and having rather than connecting. The connecting has become too painful and dealing with it unpopular in our culture. Joanna Macy deals with this in Active Hope.
This affluenza and disconnection is worsened by a market that floods one with advertisements aimed at creating needs and a sense of dissatisfaction with that one has.
National economies are structured around maximising GDP which means maximising consumption and financial capital movement. This is at the cost of local economies. These same local economies are needed for balanced happiness as well as for sustainability.
Generally institutions focus on maximising consumption rather than sustaining life support systems. David Korten covers this well.
Power and wealth is confused in this worldview. In striving for wealth only power is striven for in the form of money and monopoly.
Those at the head of large banks and corporations tend to be there because they exemplify this approach. They have few scruples about enforcing this approach onto everyone through wars and disaster capitalism. Naomi Klein and David Estulin documented this.
Power has become so centralized that we need this understanding to be widespread and include many of those in power. Progress of all of these levels are needed to show them and all that another way is possible.
Levels of transition needed to sustainability
Primitives for Watershed modeling project. Click Clone Insight at the top right to make a copy that you can edit.
The converter in this file contains precipitation for Phoenix only.
Clone of Primitives for Rainwater Harvesting -Phoenix ENVS 270 F21
This stock and flow diagram is an updated working draft of a conceptual model of a dune-lake system in the Northland region of New Zealand.
Clone of Stock and flow diagram of nitrogen in a lake
Bugs have a life cycle. The population of the bugs can be controlled by destroying the stocks of eggs/nymphs/adults or by controlling the rate at which they lay eggs, the rate of hatching of the eggs and the rate at which the nymphs become adults. The growth also depends on the time taken for eggs to hatch and for the nymphs to become adults. Some of the control strategies could also be to increase this time. The effectiveness of these strategies differs and the model lets you evaluate them
Bug Control
To calculate emission amount from mobile sources in particular from road traffic by vehicle age-cohort in DKI Jakarta - Indonesia
Vehicle Emission Amount using Age-Cohort
Simple model to illustrate an annual cycle for phytoplankton biomass in temperate waters.
Potential primary production uses Steele's equation and a Michaelis-Menten (or Monod) function for nutrient limitation. Respiratory losses are only a function of biomass.
Phytoplankton model URI
Diagrams of theories of control of destiny at multiple scales as fundamental causes of social determinants of health from Whitehead 2016 article in Health and Place
Control over decisions and health inequalities at multiple scales of experience
This model uses simple functions (converters, cosine) to simulate the water balance inside a reservoir.
Clone of Water balance in a reservoir
Simple mass balance model for lakes, based on the Vollenweider equation:
dMw/dt = Min - sMw - Mout
The model was first used in the 1960s to determine the phosphorus concentration in lakes and reservoirs, for eutrophication assessment.
Clone of Clone of Vollenweider model
This model simulates the growth of carp in an aquaculture pond, both with respect to production and environmental effects.
Both the anabolism and fasting catabolism functions contain elements of allometry, through the m and n exponents that reduce the ration per unit body weight as the animal grows bigger.
The 'S' term provides a growth adjustment with respect to the number of fish, so implicitly adds competition (for food, oxygen, space, etc).
Carp are mainly cultivated in Asia and Europe, and contribute to the world food supply.
Aquaculture currently produces sixty million tonnes of fish and shellfish every year. In May 2013, aquaculture production overtook wild fisheries for human consumption.
This paradigm shift last occurred in the Neolithic period, ten thousand years ago, when agriculture displaced hunter-gatherers as a source of human food.
Aquaculture is here to stay, and wild fish capture (fishing) will never again exceed cultivation.
Recreational fishing will remain a human activity, just as hunting still is, after ten thousand years - but it won't be a major source of food from the seas.
The best way to preserve wild fish is not to fish them.
Clone of CARP - Carp AquacultuRe in Ponds
HANDY Model of Societal Collapse from Ecological Economics
Paper see also D Cunha's model at IM-15085
Clone of Human and Nature Dynamics of Societal Inequality
The time-variable solution to a step-function change in inflow concentration for an ideal, completely mixed lake.
Clone of Clone of Clone of ENVE 431 - HW5 - PROBLEM 7
European Masters in System Dynamics 2016
New University of Lisbon, Portugal
Simple model to represent oyster individual growth by simulating feeding and metabolism.
EMSD 2016
The following insight shows the level of crime in the town of Bourke in comparison to the levels of Police and Community Engagement
Clone of Crime vs. Engagement
A simulation illustrating simple predator prey dynamics. You have two populations.
Clone of Predator Prey
The following insight shows the level of crime in the town of Bourke in comparison to the levels of Police and Community Engagement
Clone of Crime vs. Engagement
A simple phosphorus model for a generic lake.
Phosphorus in a Lake
Simple model to illustrate oyster growth based on primary production of Phytoplankton as a state variable, forced by light and nutrients, running for a yearly period.
Phytoplankton growth based on on Steele's and Michaelis-Menten equations), where:
Primary Production=(([Pmax]*[I]/[Iopt]*exp(1-[I]/[Iopt])*[S])/([Ks]+[S]))
Pmax: Maximum production (d-1)
I: Light energy at depth of interest (uE m-2 s-1)
Iopt: Light energy at which Pmax occurs (uE m-2 s-1)
S: Nutrient concentration (umol N L-1)
Ks: Half saturation constant for nutrient (umol N L-1).
Further developments:
- Nutrients as state variable in cycle with detritus from phytoplankton and oyster biomass.
- Light limited by the concentration of phytoplankton.
- Temperature effect on phytoplankton and Oyster growth.
Clone of Oyster Growth based on Phytoplankton Biomass