Marketing Models

These models and simulations have been tagged “Marketing”.

ABM approach to Bass Model of diffusion with a detractor state.    Still a work in progress.
ABM approach to Bass Model of diffusion with a detractor state.

Still a work in progress.
    Model Explanation:   This system dynamics model visualises the impact on investment into policing and community engagement resources on the crime rates within the youth population of Bourke, NSW.  The model also adds in the variable of funding for safe houses. With a high rate of domestic violen

Model Explanation:

This system dynamics model visualises the impact on investment into policing and community engagement resources on the crime rates within the youth population of Bourke, NSW. 
The model also adds in the variable of funding for safe houses. With a high rate of domestic violence, unfavorable home conditions and other socio-economic factors, many youth roam the streets with no safe place to go, which may lead to negative behaviour patterns.


Assumptions

Youth Population: 700
Total youth population in 2016 for Bourke LGA was 646 (ages 10-29). (Census, 2016) Figures rounded to 700 for purposes of this model simulation. 

Constants:
70% registration and engagement rates for Community funded programs
30% attendance rate for Safe Houses
50% crime conviction rate


Variables

Positive and Negative Influences

The model shows a number of key variables that lead youth to become more vunerable to commit a crime (such as alienation, coming from households with domestic violence, boredom and socio-economic disadvantages such as low income), as well as the variables that enhance the youth's likelihood to be a contributing member of the community (developing trusted relationships and connections with others, and having a sense of self worth, purpose and pride in the community). These factors (positive and negative) are aggregated to a single rate of 50% each for the purposes of the simulation, however each individual situation would be unique.  

Police Funding / Resources

Police funding and resources means the number of active police officers attending to criminal activities, as well as prevention tactics and education programs to reduce negative behaviour. The slider can be moved to increase or decrease policing levels to view the impact on conviction rates. Current policing levels are approx 40 police to a population of under 3000 in Bourke.

Crime Rate

Youth crime rates in Australia were 3.33% (2016). Acknowledging Bourke crime rates are much higher than average, a crime rate of 40% is set initially for this model, but can be varied using the sliders. 


Community Program Funding / Resources

Community Program Funding and Resources means money, facilities and people to develop and support the running of programs such as enhancing employability through mentorship and training, recreational sports and clubs, and volunteering opportunities to give back to the community. As engagement levels in the community programs increase, the levels of crime decrease. The slider can be moved to increase or decrease funding levels to view the impact on youth registrations into the community programs.

Observations

Ideally the simulations should show that an increase in police funding reduces crime rates over time, allowing for more youth committing crimes to be convicted and subsequently rehabilitated, therefore decreasing the overall levels of youth at risk.

A portion of those youth still at risk will move to the youth not at risk category through increased funding of safe houses (allowing a space for them to get out of the negative behaviour loop and away), whom them may consider registering into the community engagement programs. An increase in funding in community engagement programs will see more youth become more constructive members of the community, and that may in turn encourage youth at risk to seek out these programs as well by way of social and sub-cultural influences.

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My first Insight Maker experiment. A straightforward model in which we start with a fixed number of prospects, convert them into customers, then lose some who become former customers.
My first Insight Maker experiment. A straightforward model in which we start with a fixed number of prospects, convert them into customers, then lose some who become former customers.
 The small town of Bourke is located in a remote area northwest of New South Wales, leaving the town's youth in a vulnerable position to commit crime and get into trouble. This issue raises questions about the best approach to go about preventing crime in Bourke.      The following insight indicates
The small town of Bourke is located in a remote area northwest of New South Wales, leaving the town's youth in a vulnerable position to commit crime and get into trouble. This issue raises questions about the best approach to go about preventing crime in Bourke. 

The following insight indicates the level of crime in the town of Bourke in correlation to the levels of Police and Community Engagement. The model demonstrates how different variables throughout the community can improve the overall crime rate.

Police Expenditure is a major variable in this situation as investing in more police officers will increase the chances of convicting the youth population and placing them in juvenile detention. Additionally, placing an emphasis on police activity will make kids less inclined to commit crimes.

However, our goal is to prevent the youth from wanting to commit crime in the first place. One of the major factors in regards to the high crime rate of the town is due to the lack of activities for the minors to engage in. Providing an Engagement Program is key to keeping kids preoccupied and focused on productive activities. Various clubs will be included in the program depending on the interests of the kids.  Since football is a popular activity throughout the community, investing in a Football Club is a wise decision. This club will play a key role in reducing the amount of boredom within the youth population and leave them less inclined to cause mischief. 

The insight demonstrates how the motivation to commit crime is reduced when the level of boredom is low and there are activities to engage in. In this scenario, the more engaged the youth is, the more likely they are to continue down this positive path and simply return home after the activity is over (Labeled "Darren") and not commit crimes. 

Observing the model, it is evident that Community engagement programs play a significant role in keeping crime to a minimum. The value slider gives you the option to examine the crime rate when police activity is high and engagement program is low & vice versa.  The simulation indicates that crime is consistently lower when there is a high concentration on community engagement. Incorporating the data included in the model to resolve the crime problem in Bourke; there should be heavy investment in Engagement Programs while keeping a moderate level of police active at all times to ensure punishment for the youth who commit crime despite the programs.

 Model Explanation  This complex system model visualizes relationships between
the investment on police and community and the change of youth crime rate in
Bourke, NSW. 

     

  Assumptions  

 Total number of youth population (aged 13 – 19 years old) in
Bourke: 1,000 

   

 80% of Bourke youth p
Model Explanation

This complex system model visualizes relationships between the investment on police and community and the change of youth crime rate in Bourke, NSW.

 

Assumptions

Total number of youth population (aged 13 – 19 years old) in Bourke: 1,000

 

80% of Bourke youth population are assumed to behave negatively.

50% of alienated teenagers are assumed to breach of law or rules.

70% of alienated youth who breach of law or rules will be arrested by police.

60% of teenagers arrested are assumed to be convicted and detained.

40% of teenagers arrested are assumed not to be convicted and detained.

70% of teenagers detained are assumed to participate in juvenile community programs after being released.

70% of teenagers participated in community programs will rehabilitate.

 

Variables

Drugs & Alcohol, Domestic violence, Long-term unemployment

Police expenses

Community funding

 

Conclusion

It can be seen that the number of alienated youth and the crime rate will decline over time when investing more on police and juvenile community programs.

4 months ago
Simple customer growth stock and flow model that considers the impact of referrals, conversion rate and market size.
Simple customer growth stock and flow model that considers the impact of referrals, conversion rate and market size.
8 months ago
 Modelo de Dinámica de sistemas - KIVs, KOVs, CTQs, CFS, y KPIs para City Cores o Centros comerciales Spectrum   KIVs (Key Input Variables) - Variables Clave de Entrada  Estas variables son factores que impactan directamente el desempeño del sistema y son influenciables por decisiones estratégicas.
Modelo de Dinámica de sistemas - KIVs, KOVs, CTQs, CFS, y KPIs para City Cores o Centros comerciales Spectrum
KIVs (Key Input Variables) - Variables Clave de Entrada

Estas variables son factores que impactan directamente el desempeño del sistema y son influenciables por decisiones estratégicas.

  1. Allocated Marketing Budget: Presupuesto asignado a las campañas de marketing.
  2. Campaign Effectiveness: Porcentaje de efectividad de las campañas para convertir prospectos en clientes inscritos.
  3. Dollar per Channel: Gasto por cada canal de marketing (redes sociales, email marketing, eventos, etc.).
  4. Ops Cost per Channel: Costos operativos asociados con la gestión de cada canal.
  5. Number of Channels (# channels): Diversidad de canales de comunicación utilizados.
KOVs (Key Output Variables) - Variables Clave de Salida

Estas variables representan los resultados clave generados por el sistema.

  1. Lift in Active Customers: Incremento en la base de clientes activos.
  2. Lift in AOV: Incremento en el ticket promedio de compra.
  3. Incremental Revenue: Ingreso incremental generado por la estrategia de marketing.
  4. Operational Cost: Costo total operativo asociado a la implementación de las campañas.
CTQs (Critical to Quality)

Estas son métricas críticas que definen la calidad percibida por los clientes en el proceso.

  1. Experiencia del Cliente: Rapidez, comodidad y valor percibido en las campañas y promociones.
  2. Fidelización: Capacidad para retener clientes actuales y reducir el número de clientes inactivos.
  3. Accesibilidad del Marketing: Facilidad para que los clientes interactúen con las campañas en canales diversos.
CFS (Critical Success Factors)

Estos son factores críticos que aseguran el éxito del sistema.

  1. Ejecución Multicanal: Capacidad para manejar múltiples canales con alta eficiencia y efectividad.
  2. Segmentación Precisa: Definición de audiencias objetivo para maximizar la conversión de prospectos.
  3. Monitoreo de Costos Operativos: Gestión eficiente de los costos por canal para asegurar rentabilidad.
  4. Innovación en Promociones: Creatividad y diferenciación en campañas que añadan valor al cliente.
KPIs (Key Performance Indicators)

Indicadores que monitorean el desempeño de los procesos.

  1. Tasa de Conversión: Porcentaje de prospectos que se convierten en clientes inscritos o activos.
  2. Costo de Adquisición por Cliente (CAC): Costo promedio para convertir un prospecto en cliente activo.
  3. Retention Rate: Porcentaje de clientes activos retenidos en un periodo dado.
  4. Incremental Revenue: Total de ingresos adicionales generados por la estrategia.
  5. Engagement Rate: Porcentaje de clientes inscritos que se vuelven activos.
Modelo de Dinámica de SistemasRelación entre los Componentes:
  1. KIVs → Stocks → KOVs

    • Allocated Marketing Budget influye en el flujo de prospectos hacia inscritos (Customer Prospects → Enrolled Customers).
    • Campaign Effectiveness determina qué porcentaje de prospectos se convierten en inscritos y activos.
    • Dollar per Channel y Ops Cost per Channel afectan el costo operativo general y la efectividad de cada canal, impactando el flujo de clientes activos e inactivos.
  2. CTQs → Impactan Stocks

    • Fidelización mejora la retención de clientes en el stock de Active Customers, reduciendo el flujo hacia Inactive Customers.
    • Experiencia del Cliente mejora la conversión de prospectos hacia inscritos y activos.
  3. CFS → Sostienen el Sistema

    • Ejecución Multicanal asegura que la tasa de conversión (Conversion Rate) se mantenga alta.
    • Segmentación Precisa optimiza los recursos invertidos, maximizando Lift in Active Customers y Incremental Revenue.