Marketing | Insight Maker

The small town of Bourke is located in a remote area northwest of New South Wales, leaving the town's youth in a vulnerable position to commit crime and get into trouble. This issue raises questions about the best approach to go about preventing crime in Bourke.

The following insight indicates the level of crime in the town of Bourke in correlation to the levels of Police and Community Engagement. The model demonstrates how different variables throughout the community can improve the overall crime rate.

Police Expenditure is a major variable in this situation as investing in more police officers will increase the chances of convicting the youth population and placing them in juvenile detention. Additionally, placing an emphasis on police activity will make kids less inclined to commit crimes.

However, our goal is to prevent the youth from wanting to commit crime in the first place. One of the major factors in regards to the high crime rate of the town is due to the lack of activities for the minors to engage in. Providing an Engagement Program is key to keeping kids preoccupied and focused on productive activities. Various clubs will be included in the program depending on the interests of the kids. Since football is a popular activity throughout the community, investing in a Football Club is a wise decision. This club will play a key role in reducing the amount of boredom within the youth population and leave them less inclined to cause mischief.

The insight demonstrates how the motivation to commit crime is reduced when the level of boredom is low and there are activities to engage in. In this scenario, the more engaged the youth is, the more likely they are to continue down this positive path and simply return home after the activity is over (Labeled "Darren") and not commit crimes.

Observing the model, it is evident that Community engagement programs play a significant role in keeping crime to a minimum. The value slider gives you the option to examine the crime rate when police activity is high and engagement program is low & vice versa. The simulation indicates that crime is consistently lower when there is a high concentration on community engagement. Incorporating the data included in the model to resolve the crime problem in Bourke; there should be heavy investment in Engagement Programs while keeping a moderate level of police active at all times to ensure punishment for the youth who commit crime despite the programs.

BOURKE Crime vs. Engagement

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More over marketing has targets to increase TV channel appeal.

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Model Explanation:

This system dynamics model visualises the impact on investment into policing and community engagement resources on the crime rates within the youth population of Bourke, NSW.
The model also adds in the variable of funding for safe houses. With a high rate of domestic violence, unfavorable home conditions and other socio-economic factors, many youth roam the streets with no safe place to go, which may lead to negative behaviour patterns.

Assumptions

Youth Population: 700
Total youth population in 2016 for Bourke LGA was 646 (ages 10-29). (Census, 2016) Figures rounded to 700 for purposes of this model simulation.

Constants:
70% registration and engagement rates for Community funded programs
30% attendance rate for Safe Houses
50% crime conviction rate

Variables

Positive and Negative Influences

The model shows a number of key variables that lead youth to become more vunerable to commit a crime (such as alienation, coming from households with domestic violence, boredom and socio-economic disadvantages such as low income), as well as the variables that enhance the youth's likelihood to be a contributing member of the community (developing trusted relationships and connections with others, and having a sense of self worth, purpose and pride in the community). These factors (positive and negative) are aggregated to a single rate of 50% each for the purposes of the simulation, however each individual situation would be unique.

Police Funding / Resources

Police funding and resources means the number of active police officers attending to criminal activities, as well as prevention tactics and education programs to reduce negative behaviour. The slider can be moved to increase or decrease policing levels to view the impact on conviction rates. Current policing levels are approx 40 police to a population of under 3000 in Bourke.

Crime Rate

Youth crime rates in Australia were 3.33% (2016). Acknowledging Bourke crime rates are much higher than average, a crime rate of 40% is set initially for this model, but can be varied using the sliders.

Community Program Funding / Resources

Community Program Funding and Resources means money, facilities and people to develop and support the running of programs such as enhancing employability through mentorship and training, recreational sports and clubs, and volunteering opportunities to give back to the community. As engagement levels in the community programs increase, the levels of crime decrease. The slider can be moved to increase or decrease funding levels to view the impact on youth registrations into the community programs.

Observations

Ideally the simulations should show that an increase in police funding reduces crime rates over time, allowing for more youth committing crimes to be convicted and subsequently rehabilitated, therefore decreasing the overall levels of youth at risk.

A portion of those youth still at risk will move to the youth not at risk category through increased funding of safe houses (allowing a space for them to get out of the negative behaviour loop and away), whom them may consider registering into the community engagement programs. An increase in funding in community engagement programs will see more youth become more constructive members of the community, and that may in turn encourage youth at risk to seek out these programs as well by way of social and sub-cultural influences.

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Model Explanation

This complex system model visualizes relationships between the investment on police and community and the change of youth crime rate in Bourke, NSW.

Assumptions

Total number of youth population (aged 13 – 19 years old) in Bourke: 1,000

80% of Bourke youth population are assumed to behave negatively.

50% of alienated teenagers are assumed to breach of law or rules.

70% of alienated youth who breach of law or rules will be arrested by police.

60% of teenagers arrested are assumed to be convicted and detained.

40% of teenagers arrested are assumed not to be convicted and detained.

70% of teenagers detained are assumed to participate in juvenile community programs after being released.

70% of teenagers participated in community programs will rehabilitate.

Variables

Drugs & Alcohol, Domestic violence, Long-term unemployment

Police expenses

Community funding

Conclusion

It can be seen that the number of alienated youth and the crime rate will decline over time when investing more on police and juvenile community programs.

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Model Explanation:

This system dynamics model visualises the impact on investment into policing and community engagement resources on the crime rates within the youth population of Bourke, NSW.
The model also adds in the variable of funding for safe houses. With a high rate of domestic violence, unfavorable home conditions and other socio-economic factors, many youth roam the streets with no safe place to go, which may lead to negative behaviour patterns.

Assumptions

Youth Population: 700
Total youth population in 2016 for Bourke LGA was 646 (ages 10-29). (Census, 2016) Figures rounded to 700 for purposes of this model simulation.

Constants:
70% registration and engagement rates for Community funded programs
30% attendance rate for Safe Houses
50% crime conviction rate

Variables

Positive and Negative Influences

The model shows a number of key variables that lead youth to become more vunerable to commit a crime (such as alienation, coming from households with domestic violence, boredom and socio-economic disadvantages such as low income), as well as the variables that enhance the youth's likelihood to be a contributing member of the community (developing trusted relationships and connections with others, and having a sense of self worth, purpose and pride in the community). These factors (positive and negative) are aggregated to a single rate of 50% each for the purposes of the simulation, however each individual situation would be unique.

Police Funding / Resources

Police funding and resources means the number of active police officers attending to criminal activities, as well as prevention tactics and education programs to reduce negative behaviour. The slider can be moved to increase or decrease policing levels to view the impact on conviction rates. Current policing levels are approx 40 police to a population of under 3000 in Bourke.

Crime Rate

Youth crime rates in Australia were 3.33% (2016). Acknowledging Bourke crime rates are much higher than average, a crime rate of 40% is set initially for this model, but can be varied using the sliders.

Community Program Funding / Resources

Community Program Funding and Resources means money, facilities and people to develop and support the running of programs such as enhancing employability through mentorship and training, recreational sports and clubs, and volunteering opportunities to give back to the community. As engagement levels in the community programs increase, the levels of crime decrease. The slider can be moved to increase or decrease funding levels to view the impact on youth registrations into the community programs.

Observations

Ideally the simulations should show that an increase in police funding reduces crime rates over time, allowing for more youth committing crimes to be convicted and subsequently rehabilitated, therefore decreasing the overall levels of youth at risk.

A portion of those youth still at risk will move to the youth not at risk category through increased funding of safe houses (allowing a space for them to get out of the negative behaviour loop and away), whom them may consider registering into the community engagement programs. An increase in funding in community engagement programs will see more youth become more constructive members of the community, and that may in turn encourage youth at risk to seek out these programs as well by way of social and sub-cultural influences.

Justice & Community Support Investment and the Impacts on Bourke Youth Population

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